Cheltenham 2017 Antepost Bets

[mayo]

Josie's orders out for season

[KingSprinterSacre]

Nooo. Glad I have Cantlow at 8s now though.

[jono]

Gutted with the news about Josies Orders I got stung a little bit with the news but only in multiples. Thankfully the postponement of the November cross country meeting and JO not running in December due to the ground meant i held off placing what would have been my largest antepost bet so it could have been much worse

An antepost double inc Josies Orders - I presume becomes a single now? Or is the whole bet void?

[Istabraq]

Sorry Jono but you've done your dough....

[Kevloaf]

I'm glad you hadn't started piling in on JO yet jono. I remember reading that you were about to start .... I had started a double with douvan but only had 2 pts invested so far, so could have been much worse.

I backed Cantlow at 7s as the news was being confirmed ... and had backed Quantativeeasing, Any Curreny and Ballyboker Bridge at bigger prices that have all understandably shortened... can't imagine me doing much else now in the race.

Which are the races to look out for now? (When) prior to the festival?

[jono]

Sorry Jono but you've done your dough....

Figured as much - my antepost book has taken a bit of a beating over the last few weeks with Jenkins, Lough Derg Spirit, Josies Orders, Douvan (chanced him going KG and doubted it would come off in fairness), and Alpha Des Obeaux bleeding all taking a hit

[Istabraq]

There are only two cross country races at Cheltenham before the festival, the lost Nov race will be re-run on trials day which is great news.
I'm not entirely sure how many banks races they run at Punchtestown, I know there's one in Nov and of course the La Touch Cup at their festival plus a lesser banks race a couple of days later but I can't remember if they another before Cheltenham (festival).

[Istabraq]

I've had an ante post purge tonight.

Cilaos Emery e/w 12/1 NRNB in the Supreme courtesy of bitchy
Minella Rocco e/w 50/1 in the Gold Cup courtesy of FM
Zabana e/w 40/1 in the Gold Cup

[jono]

Which are the races to look out for now? (When) prior to the festival?

The postponed November cross country race takes place on trials day on January 28th. Unlike the handicap last time that'll be off level weights but if Cantlow as expected runs again it's hard to see the weight making any difference - he only had 3 horses at higher weight than him and he finished the following ahead:

Received 10lbs from Bless the Wings - beat him by 9L
5lbs Goonyella - beat him 12L
9lbs from Third Intention - beat him 13L

Plus weights have never really had a huge impact in the race anyway.

Then I think it's really just the P.P. Hogan Memorial Cross Country Chase over in Ireland on the last weekend of January. Last years race had Ballybroker Bridge beating Cantlow.

So by the end of January we should have the key trials ran

[Istabraq]

Of course, the PP Hogan, thanks for that Jono

And couldn't agree more with your summary on weights, obviously you wouldn't want to lump 3 stone more than the competition but small differences have no impact because these are thoroughbred racehorses that don't go natural racing speed until the final 3f of the race, the obstacles come thick and fast and the twists and turns don't allow horses to go as quickly as they would in a regulation race, agility and balance are the key skills required.
Cantlow has adjusted very well to the code but let's not forget Edna has a couple of others in the yard.....

[Kevloaf]

I read (what I considered) a great article about the weights in the cross county races not having anywhere near as much importance as they would in any normal handicap because of how the races are run. (Was a couple of years back, maybe Gary Nutting?!) but carrying top weight in this race wouldn't put me off at.

Where you looking now in the race? I think Ballyboker Bridge was a good bet at 33s ... before Josies Order got injured, and you can still get 33 now!

[Kevloaf]

Auvergnat a big player at 25/1? Was close in the market before getting pulled out... would suggest that despite being 2nd string on the day, there wasn't a lot between them and 5 times the price?

[jono]

Yeah I think because the race is ran so slowly it's the jumping technique, nimbleness and the ability to sprint away at the finish rather than what weight they carried.

Have to say I barely looked at the race outside of Josies Orders!

I think it'll be key to see who Edna runs in the January race. Only Cantlow ran last time out as the others weren't suited to the ground.

On first look Ballybroker Bridge would look a good bet at the prices when you look through his form and compare his price to Cantlow.

They've met 4 times with Cantlow beating him the last 2 times but BB has won/finished ahead of Cantlow twice prior to those runs. He also came third in the December Chelteham race last year.

May have Davy Russell on board too which is a positive.

[Kevloaf]

Just crept over 271 pts staked

[Brital]

Has any bookmaker announced yet when they will go NRNB?

I seem to remember last year they went the 4 Championship races first for a few weeks, then gradually the rest.

After the kicking my a/p book has taken this week, I'm loathe to put on any more bets until they do.