2015 Vincent O'Brien County Hurdle

[Old Vic]

Stats

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Odds

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[mayo]

Trends are really strong in this race.

Irish trained ( probably WP Mullins) or Nicholls

A 134-139 rating.

Henderson has only one it twice in 1993/1997.

[Old Vic]

Here you are Mayo - one from Donn

Ted Veale

Ted Veale put up a really nice performance to finish third in the BoyleSports Hurdle at Leopardstown on Sunday.

Held up well out the back in the early stages of the race by Shane Shortall, he wasn’t hampered by the fallers at the fourth last flight, but he got into a bit of scrimmaging shortly afterwards towards the inside, which can’t have helped. No better than 15th or 16th as they left the back straight, he travelled well around the top of the track over the second last flight, started to pick up among traffic at the top of the home straight, and then finished really well up the run-in, coming from ninth place at the final flight to get up and finish third, just five lengths behind the winner.

This was a race in which it was an advantage to race handily. Five of the first six home all raced in mid-division or more prominently through the early stages of the race. Ted Veale was the only one of the first six home who was able to get into the race from the rear, and he finished third.

Tony Martin’s horse was racing off a mark of 141 on Sunday. That is 11lb higher than the mark off which he finished third in the race in 2013, but he was a really well-handicapped horse that day, and he improved over hurdles since then. He won the County Hurdle on his next run, after which he was raised to a mark of 142, and he finished second to Jezki in the Grade 1 two-mile novices’ hurdle at the Punchestown Festival on his next run.

He had not run over hurdles before Sunday since he finished eighth in the 2013 Galway Hurdle, but he had run well on the flat on a couple of occasions, and he had put in a couple of good performances over fences, including when he dead-heated for second place with an admittedly below par Vautour behind Clarcam in the Grade 1 Racing Post Novice Chase at Leopardstown on St Stephen’s Day. That was his last run before Sunday.

It will be interesting to see where Tony Martin goes next with the Revoque gelding. The handicapper raised him by just 3lb for Sunday’s run, but that is fair, there could still be a good handicap in him off a mark of 144. He could be a better horse now over hurdles than he was a year and a half ago.

The County Hurdle at Cheltenham is the obvious target for him again. We know that he handles the track and Festival conditions, so he would be of interest in that race if it is confirmed as his target.

18th January 2015

[Old Vic]

And another

http://donnmcclean.com/2015/01/17/bertimont/

Bertimont

Bertimont may not get the credit that he deserves for getting as close to The New One in the Champion Hurdle Trial at Haydock on Saturday.

It is safe enough to say that The New One probably wasn’t at his best. He was out to his right at most of his hurdles, quite dramatically on occasion, which isn’t really like him, he made a mistake at the third last just as the pace was quickening, and he wasn’t as fluent as he can be at the second last nor the last. That said, he is one of the best two-mile hurdlers in training, he probably raced on the best of the ground in the home straight, and he can’t have been that far off peak fitness, given that this was his last run before the Champion Hurdle. And Bertimont gave him a real race.

Dan Skelton’s horse was fast and fluent at most of his hurdles, he took up the running from the early leader Got The Nac at the third last, and he picked up impressively. On the run to the final flight, it looked like he had The New One in trouble, and he only gave best half way up the run-in.

One significant aspect of this race: Bertimont moved towards the far side in the home straight, he raced up the inside rail, whereas Sam Twiston-Davies was at pains to keep The New One to the near side. That was an astute move, as it is probable that the best of the ground at Haydock on Saturday was on the near side. It is impossible to know by how much The New One was advantaged by racing towards the near side, or by how much Bertimont was disadvantaged by racing towards the far side, but it is probable that there were advantages and disadvantages at play.

Winner of a 10-furlong handicap at Leopardstown off a mark of 88 for James Lambe last spring, this was just Bertimont’s fourth run for Dan Skelton. He won a strange race at Chepstow on his British debut, when he was allowed a really easy lead, but he put up a nice performance on his next run to finish second to Purple Bay in the Elite Hurdle at Wincanton after Irving had fallen at the final flight. He was disappointing behind The New One in the International Hurdle at Cheltenham on his final run before Saturday, but perhaps something was ailing him there, and it is interesting that he wore a tongue-tie for the first time on Saturday. Perhaps he struggled with his breathing a little at Cheltenham.

The handicapper left him on his mark of 149 after Saturday’s run, which is fair. This is a mark off which he could win a big handicap. He proved on Saturday that he can handle soft ground, but he is probably better on better ground. He is only five, two miles is his trip, and he still has plenty of scope to progress further. He could be a County Hurdle horse.

17th January 2015

[mayo]

Ta OV hadn't checked Donn out for a bit. I noticed Ted Veale is favourite for the Nivices Handicap Chase. Hardly going to be rated below 140 by UK handicapper is he ?

[Morning Glory]

Ta OV hadn't checked Donn out for a bit. I noticed Ted Veale is favourite for the Nivices Handicap Chase. Hardly going to be rated below 140 by UK handicapper is he ?

I think he is on 140 over fences in Ireland and 146 in England.

Garde le Victoire likely to go to the County

[mayo]

donn might be backing a few in the county


Arzal

Arzal did well to finish as close as he did in the circumstances in the Betfair Hurdle at Newbury on Saturday.

Usually a front-runner, Harry Wittington’s horse was not helped by the delayed start. He missed the break as a result of the standing start, with the result that he was further back in the field than ideal. He just couldn’t get near the front.

His problems were compounded when Chieftain’s Choice fell in front of him at the fifth flight. Well back in the field, he had to swerve to his left to avoid the faller, and was almost stopped to a walk. He dropped back to be second last of the remaining 16 runners.

He came back on the bridle after that, however. He travelled well into the home straight in behind runners, and he made progress all the way up the home straight. Still no better than 12th or 13th jumping the second last, he picked up well from there and stayed on to take sixth. He did remarkably well to get as close as he did.

Arzal is only five and this was just his fourth run over hurdles. He got off the mark at Kempton in November, and he ran well for a long way when he finished third behind Jollyallan and Sempre Medici in a Class 2 contest back at Kempton on St Stephen’s Day. Jollyallan is now rated 151, so Arzal could be well handicapped on a mark of 139, especially if you factor in his potential for progression. He hails from a small yard, so it may be that the markets continue to under-rate him, but he will be really interesting now in another handicap hurdle off this mark. It is interesting that his trainer thought him good enough to enter him in the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle and in the Neptune.

7th February 2015

[MrMcGoldrick]

I made similar comments about Arzal on the Betfair hurdle thread we had here, I mentioned he was an ew fancy of mine before that race and was really unlucky to finish out of the money, just, and that he should go off over-priced at some point if people missed how good a run it was. It's clearly not been missed by everyone but is definitely worth a look at Cheltenham, the county hurdle sounds like probably the right target too.

[mayo]

I made similar comments about Arzal on the Betfair hurdle thread we had here, I mentioned he was an ew fancy of mine before that race and was really unlucky to finish out of the money, just, and that he should go off over-priced at some point if people missed how good a run it was. It's clearly not been missed by everyone but is definitely worth a look at Cheltenham, the county hurdle sounds like probably the right target too.

You did MMG - always nice when you spot one and shows up in the Horses to follow list of the tipsters. You should stick a few horses into that section of the forum.i get a bit lonely over there

[MrMcGoldrick]

You did MMG - always nice when you spot one and shows up in the Horses to follow list of the tipsters. You should stick a few horses into that section of the forum.i get a bit lonely over there

I'll try to do that mayo, it's worth doing I just tend to forget

[Morning Glory]

Violet Dancer is to head for the County Handicap Hurdle at Cheltenham following his victory in the Betfair Hurdle at Newbury.
Trainer Gary Moore will resist the temptation of a bonus traditionally offered to a horse winning the Imperial Cup at Sandown and a race at the Festival the following week.
Moore does not believe Violet Dancer can take two races in quick succession and will concentrate on preparing him for Cheltenham on March 13.
"He'll go straight for the County Hurdle. I don't think he's the horse that can do the two - the Imperial Cup and then go to Cheltenham. I'd rather go straight to Cheltenham with him," Moore told At The Races.
"He's come out of the race so well and he just seems to be improving and thriving on racing.
"I couldn't be more pleased with him. OK, he had a lot of luck the other day, but you need a lot of luck sometimes and he seems a horse that is going forward in life."

[dazzler]

Dark horse aux Petit soins-paul nicholls

Any info on this one folks , bit of a buzz horse at the moment on social media and gets a mention from nick Schofield to follow, hopefully find out more tonight from Nicholls blog on betfair....also has entry in coral cup?

[Old Vic]

Dark horse aux Petit soins-paul nicholls

Any info on this one folks , bit of a buzz horse at the moment on social media and gets a mention from nick Schofield to follow, hopefully find out more tonight from Nicholls blog on betfair....also has entry in coral cup?

Well worth looking at whatever he runs - 4 wins since 2004.

Mullins seems to have the hand of placing them for this too.

[Hoof]

If Cool Macavity gets into the County Hurdle and the ground is good he will be very competitive. He is a good-ground horse but very talented.

[loveracing]

I would like to know which of Mullins will run in this race. Remember Arctic Fire was last years plot for the County.