2015 Gold Cup

[johnno]

AP's Blog is back. Thought he wouldnt be available for Holywell in Gold Cup ?

The BetBright Cup Chase is the Betfred Cheltenham Gold Cup Trial on Saturday and I have won it a couple of times in recent years thanks to Exotic Dancer and Neptune Collonges. The race has been reopened this time so may not have the biggest field and my possible mount Holywell is also entered in the Galliardhomes.com Cleeve Hurdle. We were thinking about the hurdle race for him as the ground may be testing and the hurdle race may suit him better, but with the chase being reopened he has an alternative engagement. He obviously unseated last time at Aintree, which was disappointing, but he does show his best form from the turn of the year so hopefully he will give a good account of himself whichever race he runs in.

I do think the closer we get to March then the better horse we will see and he is a horse who needs to be competitive so a run will help on that score.

I still have faith in this horse as all of his form has been in the new year, and we have never seen the best of him before Christmas. He always comes good in the spring and I am still hoping he can be a Cheltenham Gold Cup horse. The Cheltenham Gold Cup looks very open and while Silviniaco Conti has produced the best displays one could maybe argue that his very best displays have been on flat tracks. Of the other leading players in the race, Bobs Worth and Lord Windermere were both disappointing in the Lexus. Road To Riches won that race and he looks like an improver and he beat last year’s Cheltenham Gold Cup second On His Own, so I don’t think there is an awful lot between last year’s Cheltenham Gold Cup horses, and hopefully Holywell can be one of the improvers.

[Rhinestone Cowboy]

McCoy definitely pitching for the ride on Holywell in the Gold Cup ��

I though Carlingford Lough ran a cracker in the Lexus ...

[Old Vic]

Was going to write some stuff about the trial races but you can make your own minds up ...videos are collated on this thread

http://www.fatjockey.com/forum/showthread.php?4912-2015-Gold-Cup-Trial-Race-Video

Might back Smad Place before he runs at the weekend.

[Old Vic]

An old favourite of mine tipped up on Betfair by David Cleary


The market for the Gold Cup is dominated by 4.3 favourite Silviniaco Conti, who has made a strong case to be regarded as the best in the division, with wins this winter in the Betfair Chase and the King George. The majority of his plausible rivals have done little to enhance their claims, apart from Roads To Riches, whose form looks some way short of that shown by the favourite.

The likes of Holywell, Bobs Worth and the 2014 winner Lord Windermere have questions to answer, and yet still figure fairly prominently in the market. Many Clouds and Shutthefrontdoor have made progress this season but have still to be tested at level weights in top company (Many Clouds will get the chance to advance his claims at Cheltenham this weekend and could well make a significant move in the Gold Cup market if successful).

All in all, the top of the market looks about right and is waiting for the outcome of that Cheltenham race and the Irish Hennessy to shake it up. Holywell, who could take on Many Clouds or run in the Cleeve Hurdle later in the afternoon, is definitely of interest, having won at the last two Festivals (the Pertemps Final and the Baylis And Harding Handicap Chase), his first run this season can easily be discounted, given the inadequate trip and lack of fitness. The poor form of his stable is probably enough of an excuse for the second run, though a sloppy round of jumping (despite three fences being omitted that day at Aintree due to the low sun) is a worry.

However, if there's a good case to be made for Holywell, while excusing his two runs this season, the same obviously applies to Ma Filleule, who is currently a significantly bigger price for the Gold Cup than he is - 95.0 on the Betfair Exchange as opposed to 15.0 on Holywell. Ma Filleule chased home Holywell in the Baylis And Harding last March and would meet him on terms 5 lb better for one-and-three-quarter lengths were they to reoppose in the Gold Cup.

Like Holywell, Ma Filleule went on to success at the Grand National meeting at Aintree. Holywell switched back to novice company to land the Mildmay Novices' Chase, while Ma Filleule showed improvement on her Cheltenham second to go one better in the Topham Chase. That form, were it to be reproduced or bettered at Cheltenham, could make it very hard for the geldings that have to give her 7 lb to overcome her.

The principal reason Ma Filleule is the sort of price she is, is that her two runs this season don't suggest she's up to Gold Cup standard. However, on the first occasion, in Grade 1 company at Down Royal behind Road To Riches, she shaped as if clearly well short of peak fitness and was very sympathetically handled once the leader had gone beyond recall.

Next time at Aintree, in the race in which Holywell failed to complete, she was disadvantaged by a tactical race, in which no fences were jumped in the home straight. After travelling smoothly for a long way, looking the likely winner until late in the day, Ma Filleule found the grinding front runner Sam Winner too hard to pass. Had the omitted fences been jumped, it's reasonably to think that the outcome might well have been different.

Ma Filleule holds an entry in the Ryanair as well as the Gold Cup and has yet to try the full Gold Cup distance, though she has plenty of form at three miles and her half-brother Mon Parrain won over course and distance on New Year's day.

It's possible that she will be aimed at the shorter-distance race, so a non-runner no-bet safety net might be worth considering (34.0 in Betfair's Sportsbook market).

Though the Grand National is also on the agenda, it wouldn't be a surprise to see her bounce right back to form next time and a successful appearance in the Denman at Newbury, for example, could see Ma Filleule trading much shorter than her current odds for the Gold Cup.

[Morning Glory]

Completely agree about Bosron Bob, he was my early bet for the race. If you watched the Lexus at Christmas he was the one staying on the best, by far, of those held up, all too far in my view, the other main ones being Bobs Worth and Lord Windermere, all given too much to do in the heavy ground. I've also backed Lord Windermere at silly prices, and Silvianaco Conti where I got 20/1 for him to win the King George then go on to win the Gold cup, seemed a reasonable bet at the time, looks much better now.

Nice book there MMG.

I see Holywell had got a few mentions on the thread lately. A well placed handicapper to my eye.

[mayo]

Noel

Thoughts from man of the moment



Noel Fehily: Many Clouds has Gold Cup potential but my Silviniaco Conti can improve again

Silviniaco Conti’s rider Noel Fehily believes Many Clouds is capable of a stellar performance at Cheltenham on Saturday that will launch him into the Gold Cup picture.

But the rider warns Paul Nicholls’ ante-post favourite will be mightily hard to beat in March and is capable of improving further, taking his form up a notch from his King George win.

Fehily, fresh from another Grade One masterclass on the trainer’s Dodging Bullets last weekend, will be watching Cheltenham’s weekend Gold Cup trial with interest from Doncaster, where he is currently booked for two rides.

And it’s Oliver Sherwood’s eight-year-old, not Dynaste, the horse Silviniaco Conti beat at Kempton, who he feels could take the BetBright Cup Chase on the way to staking a major claim in two months’ time: “I thought Many Clouds was the obvious one,” he said.

“He’s a good, solid staying chaser. His Hennessy win was a good performance. It’s a very hard race to win and he’s a horse on the up. He’s making into a Gold Cup horse and is definitely the one to beat. “

Many Clouds is 16/1 for the Gold Cup and 3/1 second favourite for Saturday’s contest that has been used as a springboard to glory in the Festival’s biggest race by horses like Master Oats (1995) and See More Business (1998).

One of the elder statesmen of the weighing room, Fehily’s association with Silviniaco Conti plus his reliability in other big races for trainer Harry Fry has taken his reputation to a new high this season.

While he has plenty of respect for the opposition the Gold Cup is expected to throw at him, including second favourite Road To Riches, he feels ‘Conti’ holds all the aces: “The King George performance was his best by a fair way,” he said.

“I was confident of his chances but he did surprise me how well he did it. His form this season has been rock solid. I think he’s probably a better horse.

“First time out (fifth at Wetherby) I wasn’t too disappointed, he felt very well. Paul’s horses were needing their first run and I thought there was plenty left to work on. It was on quicker ground and he was a bit ring-rusty.

“At Haydock (first in the Betfair Chase), Menorah (second) was in the form of his life at the time. I think he improved again on to the King George. He jumped and travelled even better.

“It has been well documented the horse wasn’t quite right in the Gold Cup last year. If he had fallen at the last everyone would have said he would have won. Handling the track is not a problem to him.

“He jumped great to the point where he nudged one in the Gold Cup the year he fell. I’m hoping this year he can show how good he is.”

Fehily has been working away in the saddle since the nineties but for the first decade and more he was marooned in the second tier of the sport.

He had three years of ligament and tendon injuries plus a few broken bones which held him back, but he has aged like a fine wine and is now tasting more glory at the top level.

Success is sweet for the man two years younger than Tony McCoy, who has had many rides for Charlie Mann, Jonjo O’Neill and Emma Lavelle over the years, but it’s the Nicholls horses that have thrust him into the spotlight.

A few years ago the yard’s former jockey Ruby Walsh was injured and he seized the opportunity to strike gold: “Silviniaco Conti has been fantastic for me- horses like him are hard to find,” said Fehily.

“He’s a very straightforward, tough, genuine horse and I’m just very lucky to ride him.

“Paul Nicholls is a master of training these horses for the big chases and I’m sure he can improve him again. There’s no reason why the horse can’t finally win a Gold Cup.

“His form is the best and it’s more of a case of him doing everything right on the day. As for me, I don’t think I’m doing a lot different in the saddle compared to the last 10 years. I’m fortunate to be riding good horses.

“As long as they keep coming along and I remain in one piece, I’ll keep on going.”

Read more: http://www.gloucestershireecho.co.uk...#ixzz3PXiCp2qT

[mayo]

I have a feeling Paul Townend will be riding Boston Bob.

Djakadam was very good there.

Six year old winners of the Gold Cup ?

Long Run the only one in last 50 years. Mill House won as a six year old in 1963.

[MrMcGoldrick]

I have a feeling Paul Townend will be riding Boston Bob.

Djakadam was very good there.

Six year old winners of the Gold Cup ?

Long Run the only one in last 50 years. Mill House won as a six year old in 1963.

He looked impressive, I don't think they went very fast though given the heavy ground, have you heard what they think of running him on good ground.

[Old Vic]

As impressed as I was inning a handicap of 145 does not make Djakadam banker material for the Gold Cup.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p>So Djakadam&#39;s has made an absolute mockery of his handicap at Gowran. Becoming a banker for <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Cheltenham2015?src=hash">#Cheltenham2015</a>? <a href="http://t.co/4m6ZCnTbTS">pic.twitter.com/4m6ZCnTbTS</a></p>&mdash; BETDAQ (@BETDAQ) <a href="https://twitter.com/BETDAQ/status/558292965844852736">January 22, 2015</a></blockquote>
<script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

[MrMcGoldrick]

Was going to write some stuff about the trial races but you can make your own minds up ...videos are collated on this thread

http://www.fatjockey.com/forum/showthread.php?4912-2015-Gold-Cup-Trial-Race-Video

Might back Smad Place before he runs at the weekend.

May be of interest that Smad Place is 50/1 with Bet365 to win at the weekend then go on to win the Gold cup, Many Clouds is 33/1

[Old Vic]

May be of interest that Smad Place is 50/1 with Bet365 to win at the weekend then go on to win the Gold cup, Many Clouds is 33/1

Thanks MMG. Taken the 50s. I have already had a good cut at Bobs Worth and got at bits of 25s on Djakadam yesterday ( not a banker price !) so that will have to do me now. Thats my Gold Cup 1-2-3 .

1. Bobs Worth
2. Smad Place
3. Djakadam

[Old Vic]

Holywell hasnt many options now - The Denman Chase at Newbury ?

HOLYWELL will not run at Cheltenham on Saturday, with trainer Jonjo O'Neill preferring to wait for better ground with the Betfred Cheltenham Gold Cup hopeful.

The eight-year-old was entered for both the Grade 2 BetBright Cup Chase and the Grade 2 galliardhomes.com Cleeve Hurdle, but O'Neill said on Friday morning he will not run at the meeting.

"He wants good ground, it's frustrating but what can you do. We'll wait a bit longer, O'Neill said."

The trainer added that there are no firm plans for where Holywell could run next.

With Holywell out, there can only be a maximum of seven runners for the BetBright Cup Chase, with declarations revealed later on Thursday morning.

[Rhinestone Cowboy]

I questioned him on the Thyestes thread but Djakadam does look like a proper one. Ruby has a tricky choice now in my view. He might pick the best one but market is likely to overreact. back Rubys reject on the day !

[Yeehaa]

Hennessy Form franked again.

Many Clouds ticks all the boxes.

[mayo]

Hennessy Form franked again.

Many Clouds ticks all the boxes.

Yep - they have clipped him and Smad Place across the board.

Still 12s NrNb with Betfair sportsbook and paddys.

Smad Place was getting weight - keeps a bit for himself I think.