Festival Handicap Chase 2014 ( Old William Hill)

[oscar]

I hope not. He'd have no chance in the Gold Cup lol

[Lester]

I hope not. He'd have no chance in the Gold Cup lol

Owners might like a runner - wouldnt give him much chance of top weight here either

[Yeehaa]

Romanesco - yep ..anything from Elliott at previews ?
Tours Des Champs - not for me
Green Flag - yep still in RSA though ?

Cant have Hadrians Approach in a big field handicap - jumping not convincing.

[oscar]

Trainer has Le Bec in the RSA so hopefully Green Flag with go here.

[Old Vic]

Trainer has Le Bec in the RSA so hopefully Green Flag with go here.

Le Bec a bit of a forgotten horse but Ms Lavelle rather than Ms Russell.

[mayo]

Green Flag anyone? Seems to fulfill most stats?

Welcome Oscar and respect :0

well backed since your post along with Holywell

[IMG][/IMG]

Meanwhile OV selection not even declared

[oscar]

lol wish it was my money.

aint had a bet yet but that one is on my short list

[Old Vic]

I am suitably humbled.:o

Still fancy Romanesco to run well in KIm Muir if that is the plan.


Who else are you looking at Oscar ?

[Old Vic]

[oscar]

Ha I see Green Flag is also tipped up on that VT.

Im not just staying this but the only bet Ive had on the race so far is on Time for Rupert NRNB a few weeks ago.

Midnight Prayer is another Ive jotted down but he may not go for this.

[Old Vic]

Ha I see Green Flag is also tipped up on that VT.

Im not just staying this but the only bet Ive had on the race so far is on Time for Rupert NRNB a few weeks ago.

Midnight Prayer is another Ive jotted down but he may not go for this.

I am coming round to Green Flag but still a bit hung up on the weight

I would imagine Hunt Ball might end up in Ryanair so weights up 4lbs from this



Looking at stattos main trends

Age

10/10 were aged 7 to 10 and they have also filled 35 of 38 places
11 year olds are 0/31 in the period with only 1 making the frame.

Weight
Big trend this ..
9/10 carried 10-12 or less
Top Weight has been placed twice in the decade finishing P23P0787597P
12 of the last 13 winners carried less than 11st from approximately one-third of the total runners
The 2013 winner Golden Chieftain scraped in as bottom weight of the 24 runners. Of the ten horses to carry 11st+ last season, only three even completed the course.

Official Ratings
All 10 winners were officially rated 129 to 143.
Scot Lane in 1983 last winner officially rated 150+.
Unguided Missile in 1998 last winner off a handicap mark higher than 143.

We would be starting at 29 on the list and working down -

Reluctantly knock out Dursey Sound knocked because of the 6 year old stat and Allfie Sheerin because of 11 year old one.

Then looking at form

8 of 10 winners finished in first 3 last time out (5 won)
8 of 10 winners were 1st or 2nd season chasers (both exceptions were 3rd season chasers)

Shortlist becomes:

Muldoons Picnic
Wrong Turn
King Massini
& Tour Des Champs

King Massini at 33/1 NRNB added.

Would agree Time For Rupert very interesting though - could be thrown in.

[oscar]

Yes I'd agree. King Massini if he gets in. Good ground form.

Still like Green Flag on this rating and form.

[mayo]

Yes I'd agree. King Massini if he gets in. Good ground form.

Still like Green Flag on this rating and form.

Tricast sorted

TFR
King Massini
Green Flag

easy

[Old Vic]

Yes I'd agree. King Massini if he gets in. Good ground form.

Still like Green Flag on this rating and form.

King Massini gets in

[Old Vic]

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