Cheltenham 2014 Arkle Trophy Chase

[mayo]

If that was the case I would imagine that Champagne Fever would only go up to 2 and a half miles for the Jewson and let Ballycasey take his chance in the RSA.

That is where I have them running now. You wouldnt back any othem if follwing this @jpfestival stat

Since 2005 the Ryanair, Gold Cup, Champion Chase, and Arkle all share the same statistic. A Willie Mullins horse has failed to win any of those races. Indeed, since 2005 the trainer has claimed only the RSA, Cross-Country, and National Hunt Chase from the Chasing Festival programme.

In the same period, the Supreme Novices Hurdle, Neptune Novices Hurdle (Twice), Mares Hurdle (Five Times), Champion Hurdle (Twice).

Three Handicap Hurdles have fallen the trainer’s way. The Martin Pipe Hurdle (Once) and County Hurdle (Twice).

The Champion Bumper has fallen his way four times since 2005.

[Sizing]

That stat is wrong - Sir Des Champs won the Jewson.

[mayo]

That stat is wrong - Sir Des Champs won the Jewson.

Correct Sizing - Dont shoot the messenger ! Seems to do better in Hurdles though.

[skippymac6]

Haha well spotted Sizing! That's some stat though. I dont think he's had a crop of novice chasers like this ever before though...

[mayo]

Champagne Fever on the drift headed for Jewson ?

[skippymac6]

The whispers seem to think that. Be interesting to see if he gets an entry into the Irish Arkle now or if Willie just relies on Felix Yonger

[mayo]

Richard Forristal

Predictably, the stamp of our indomitable champion trainer Willie Mullins is all over the race, with Felix Yonger heading ante-post lists at 9/4, with Champagne Fever (4/1) and Mozoltov (9/1) his other potential big players.

Paul Nolan's Defy Logic is the layers' second best at 5/2, with Trifolium, Don Cossack, Mallowney and Djakadam all capable of making their presence felt.

Depending on what Mullins runs, the Arkle could be crucial in terms of deciphering some of the riddles that the Carlow-based juggernaut has thrown up.

Defy Logic was no match for Felix Yonger at Punchestown in November, but he capitalised on Champagne Fever's blunder at Leopardstown on St Stephen's Day, when Trifolium took second, having chased home Felix Yonger at Navan.

Felix Yonger throttled White Star Line over two-and-a-half miles on his Punchestown fencing debut last May, and only Simonsig beat him over a furlong further (albeit over hurdles) at Cheltenham in March 2012.

MINIMUM

Come St Stephen's Day, Mullins opted to send him to Limerick for a Grade Two over two-four, leaving Champagne Fever to tackle the Grade One over the minimum trip in south Co Dublin.

Even now, it's hard to know the full extent of what can be gleaned from either race.

In deep ground at Limerick, Felix Yonger was thwarted by his less illustrious stablemate The Paparazzi Kid -- also engaged on Sunday -- when his fencing lacked its usual fluency. He eventually chased down the winner on the run to the line, but it was a puzzling defeat that raised more questions than answers.

The big race at Leopardstown was equally inconclusive, as, after going toe to toe with Defy Logic, Champagne Fever looked in command until the lights went out following that desperate mistake at the second-last.

Having suffered similar shock defeats in each of the previous two seasons en route to glory over two miles at Cheltenham, most of his fans would have been relatively unperturbed.

Mullins' reaction, though, was significant, as he suggested he'd consider stepping the gangly grey back up in trip, with the Grade One Dr PJ Moriarty on February 9 an obvious target.

In the same breath, he noted the renewed potency of Felix Yonger's two-mile form-lines, prompting you to conclude that events that unfolded within 10 minutes of each other had clarified things in his head.

The various permutations will have been busily whirring round inside there ever since, but you wonder if his deliberations aren't slightly less vexing than they might have been before.

Perhaps crucially, for the first time ever the Jewson Novices' Chase over the intermediate trip has Grade One status this year, the first Festival race to be elevated to the highest echelon since 2008.

While the debate over the Festival's evolution and whether or not the Jewson deserves such a promotion is for another day, that it is now a Grade One is inevitably going to make it a more appealing option. When Mullins won it with Sir Des Champs in 2012, it was the poor relation.

With its newly-enhanced status, though, it will be less of a consolation prize. The entries for Cheltenham's three novice chase majors will be unveiled on Thursday, and Champagne Fever could well be put in all three.

Still, at this stage of the campaign, Mullins might not be keen to ask him to stretch for the opposite extreme of the RSA's extended three miles.

A year ago, you suspect the Closutton maestro wouldn't have willingly given the Jewson a second thought for a heavyweight like Champagne Fever.

That he might now does nothing to dispel the notion that the Arkle or RSA could be robbed of a marquee name, but it will surely make his life a mite easier. We await Friday's morning's declarations with interest.

[Old Vic]

Ruby

Things just didn’t happen for Felix Younger at Limerick over Christmas. The ground might have been a little testing for him and if the real Felix Younger turns up on Sunday in the Irish Arkle Chase on Sunday he’ll give Defy Logic a race of it. It’s a big ask for Jackadam as a five-year-old to win a Grade 1 on just his second start.

Paul Nolan’s horse beat Champagne Fever into third at Leopardstown three weeks ago and is talented but Felix Younger beat him well at Punchestown.

[Moscow]

Ruby

Things just didn’t happen for Felix Younger at Limerick over Christmas. The ground might have been a little testing for him and if the real Felix Younger turns up on Sunday in the Irish Arkle Chase on Sunday he’ll give Defy Logic a race of it. It’s a big ask for Jackadam as a five-year-old to win a Grade 1 on just his second start.

Paul Nolan’s horse beat Champagne Fever into third at Leopardstown three weeks ago and is talented but Felix Younger beat him well at Punchestown.

That reads like Felix Yonger is their Arkle horse.

[Old Vic]

Odds suggest Felix is the one too.

[Old Vic]

[Old Vic]

Surprising Oscar Whisky not given the option. Noticed that Henderson only had two entries across the four novice chases.

Timeform expecting an Irish winner by the look of the ratings

[Old Vic]

Breakdown of Racing Post Arkle Chase entries by trainer
6 Entries
Willie Mullins IRE – Ballycasey, Champagne Fever, Djakadam, Felix Yonger, Midnight Game, Mozoltov

5 Entries
Paul Nicholls – Caid du Berlais, Dark Lover, Dodging Bullets, Hinterland, Mr Mole

3 Entries
Alan King – Balder Succes, Raya Star, Valdez

2 Entries
Charles Byrnes IRE – Arnaud, Trifolium
Gordon Elliott IRE – Don Cossack, Shrapnel
Harry Fry – Rock On Ruby, Vukovar
Dessie Hughes IRE – Art Of Logistics, Bright New Dawn
Emma Lavelle – Claret Cloak, Fox Appeal

1 Entry
Nicky Henderson - Grandouet
Charlie Mann – Lord Of House
Tony Martin IRE – Ted Veale
Noel Meade IRE – Ned Buntline
Dr Richard Newland – Ahyaknowyerself
Paul Nolan IRE – Defy Logic
David Pipe – Western Warhorse
Nicky Richards – Eduard
Michael Scudamore – Next Sensation
Venetia Williams –Brick Red

[Old Vic]

Arnaud (Charles Byrnes IRE)
2012 Fred Winter Juvenile Handicap Hurdle 5th Philip Enright 50/1

Balder Succes (Alan King)
2012 JCB Triumph Hurdle F Wayne Hutchinson 15/2
2013 Stan James Champion Hurdle UR Wayne Hutchinson100/1

Caid du Berlais (Paul Nicholls)
2013 Fred Winter Juvenile Handicap Hurdle 2nd Harry Derham (5) 20/1

Champagne Fever (Willie Mullins IRE)
2012 Weatherbys Champion Bumper 1st Mr Patrick Mullins 16/1
2013 Sky Bet Supreme Novices' Hurdle 1st Ruby Walsh 5/1

Claret Cloak (Emma Lavelle)
2013 Vincent O'Brien County Handicap Hurdle 16th Noel Fehily 25/1

Dodging Bullets (Paul Nicholls)
2012 JCB Triumph Hurdle 4th Daryl Jacob 20/1
2013 Sky Bet Supreme Novices' Hurdle 9th Daryl Jacob 12/1

Felix Yonger (Willie Mullins IRE)
2011 Weatherbys Champion Bumper 21st Brian Hughes 66/1
2012 Neptune Investment Management Nov' H 2nd PaulTownend 16/1

Fox Appeal (Emma Lavelle)
2012 Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle 9th Noel Fehily 18/1

Grandouet (Nicky Henderson)
2011 JCB Triumph Hurdle 3rd Barry Geraghty 13/2
2013 Stan James Champion Hurdle F Barry Geraghty 13/2

Midnight Game (Willie Mullins IRE)
2012 Sky Bet Supreme Novices' Hurdle 15th Paul Townend 18/1
2013 Vincent O'Brien County Handicap Hurdle PU Declan Lavery (5) 33/1

Raya Star (Alan King)
2012 Vincent O'Brien County Handicap Hurdle 13th Robert Thornton 8/1

Rock On Ruby (Harry Fry)
2011 Neptune Investment Management Nov' H 2nd Daryl Jacob 13/2
2012 Stan James Champion Hurdle 1st Noel Fehily 11/1
2013 Stan James Champion Hurdle 2nd Noel Fehily 11/2

Ted Veale (Tony Martin IRE)
2013 Vincent O'Brien County Handicap Hurdle 1st Bryan Cooper 10/1

Trifolium (Charles Byrnes IRE)
2012 Sky Bet Supreme Novices' Hurdle 3rd Davy Russell 15/2

[Old Vic]

Record of trainers with entries in the Racing Post Arkle Chase (since 1994 plus any winners beforehand)
Year Pos Horse Jockey SP

Charles Byrnes IRE (Arnaud, Trifolium)
2007 PU Vintage Treasure Conor O'Dwyer 100/1

Gordon Elliott IRE (Don Cossack, Shrapnel)
No previous runners

Harry Fry (Rock On Ruby, Vukovar)
No previous runners

Nicky Henderson (Grandouet)
1991 1st Remittance Man Richard Dunwoody 85/40f
1993 1st Travado Jamie Osborne 5/1
1994 BD Thumbs Up Charlie Swan 6/1
1999 PU Makounji Mick Fitzgerald 9/2
2000 1st Tiutchev Mick Fitzgerald 8/1
2002 5th Fondmort Mick Fitzgerald 4/1
2003 3rd Isio Mick Fitzgerald 10/1
2004 8th Caracciola Mick Fitzgerald 15/2
2007 3rd Jack The Giant Mick Fitzgerald 14/1
2010 4th Mad Max Paul Carberry 25/1
2010 5th Riverside Theatre Barry Geraghty 7/1
2011 2nd Finian's Rainbow Barry Geraghty 7/2
2011 6th Giorgio Quercus Paddy Brennan 33/1
2012 1st Sprinter Sacre Barry Geraghty 8/11f
2013 1st Simonsig Barry Geraghty 8/15f

Dessie Hughes IRE (Art Of Logistics, Bright New Dawn)
2000 4th Rathbawn Prince Kieran Kelly 20/1
2004 UR Central House Paul Carberry 11/1

Alan King (Balder Succes, Raya Star, Valdez)
2004 4th Jahash Robert Thornton 150/1
2005 UR Kadount Robert Thornton 20/1
2006 1st Voy Por Ustedes Robert Thornton 15/2
2007 1st My Way de Solzen Robert Thornton 7/2
2011 4th Medermit Robert Thornton 11/4f

Emma Lavelle (Claret Cloak, Fox Appeal)
2004 PU Palua Barry Fenton 25/1
2010 7th Kangaroo Court Jack Doyle 22/1

Charlie Mann (Lord Of House)
1997 3rd Celibate Jamie Railton 13/2
2004 7th Keltic Bard Noel Fehily 25/1
2008 6th Moon Over Miami Noel Fehily 14/1
2009 6th Gauvain Noel Fehily 33/1

Tony Martin IRE (Ted Veale)
No previous runners

Noel Meade IRE (Ned Buntline)
1994 5th Mubadir Paul Carberry 20/1
1998 2nd Hill Society Richard Dunwoody 8/1
1999 6th Cockney Lad Paul Carberry 25/1
1999 8th Advocat Norman Williamson 33/1
2000 F Frozen Groom Barry Geraghty 10/1
2005 11th Sir Oj Mick Fitzgerald 25/1
2005 4th Watson Lake Paul Carberry 17/2
2006 4th Wild Passion Paul Carberry 20/1
2011 3rd Realt Dubh Paul Carberry 17/2

Willie Mullins IRE (Ballycasey, Champagne Fever, Djakadam, Felix Yonger, Midnight Game, Mozoltov)
1999 10th Native-Darrig David Casey 16/1
2002 6th Assessed Ruby Walsh 25/1
2003 F Adamant Approach Paul Carberry 7/1
2006 6th Missed That Ruby Walsh 6/1
2008 7th Scotsirish Davy Condon 20/1
2009 14th Golden Silver Paul Townend 14/1
2010 6th Quiscover Fontaine Paul Townend 22/1
2010 11th Sports Line Ruby Walsh 17/2
2012 5th Blackstairmountain Paul Townend 20/1
2013 PU Arvika Ligeonniere Ruby Walsh 15/2

Dr Richard Newland (Ahyaknowyerself)
No previous runners

Paul Nicholls (Caid du Berlais, Dark Lover, Dodging Bullets, Hinterland, Mr Mole)
1996 UR Captain Khedive A P McCoy 20/1
1998 14th Lake Kariba Timmy Murphy 8/1
1999 1st Flagship Uberalles Joe Tizzard 11/1
2000 UR Fadalko Joe Tizzard 12/1
2002 3rd Armaturk Timmy Murphy 8/1
2002 8th Kadarann Joe Tizzard 16/1
2003 1st Azertyuiop Ruby Walsh 5/4f
2003 F Le Roi Miguel A P McCoy 11/1
2004 3rd Le Duc Joe Tizzard 25/1
2004 F Thisthatandtother Ruby Walsh 5/2f
2005 5th My Will Ruby Walsh 12/1
2006 10th Cerium Paddy Brennan 50/1
2007 8th Good Spirit Sam Thomas 20/1
2007 F Twist Magic Ruby Walsh 12/1
2008 3rd Noland Ruby Walsh 7/4f
2008 9th Marodima Sam Thomas 33/1
2009 8th I'msingingtheblues Christian Williams 9/1
2009 F Tatenen Ruby Walsh 4/1f
2010 12th Woolcombe Folly Nick Scholfield 25/1
2011 5th Ghizao Timmy Murphy 4/1
2012 4th Al Ferof Ruby Walsh 3/1

Paul Nolan IRE (Defy Logic)
2006 F Accordion Etoile Barry Geraghty 7/1
2008 PU French Accordion John Cullen 33/1

David Pipe (Western Warhorse)
2007 6th Buena Vista Timmy Murphy 9/1
2011 7th Dan Breen Tom Scudamore 20/1
2013 3rd His Excellency Tom Scudamore 80/1

Nicky Richards (Eduard)
2006 2nd Monet's Garden Tony Dobbin 8/1
2007 4th Faasel Tony Dobbin 16/1

Michael Scudamore (Next Sensation)
No previous runners

Venetia Williams (Brick Red)
2000 5th Bellator Richard Johnson 5/1
2005 14th Mambo des Mottes Alan O'Keeffe 100/1
2005 PU Limerick Boy Sam Thomas 20/1