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Who have you missed ?

Joleg

Joleg

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Been looking through my bets the last couple of days (and cashing out a few) and noticed that whilst i have one or two (or more) bets that i wouldn't necessarily place today, there are also others that i didn't get on early enough and now the price has got to a place where i no longer think that they are good enough value

For example :-

Sire Du Berlais (Stayers) - I made notes and was going to get onside at 16/1 as cover for my main bets in the race, this obviously hasn't happened, but at 7-1 (generally) i no longer think this is value , similarly

Zanahiyr (Triumph) I'm fairly sure that some of you cleverer people have this in your books at around 33-1, which i intended to do but was too hellbent on topping up on Quilixios, the price is now circa 4-1 which again i don't think is value in a race that i would normally leave alone until nearer the day

There are probably numerous others !!

Please tell me i'm not alone in dithering for too long, which prices have you missed ?
 
Sorry Kev, didn't mean to put this in the members section, can you move for me please :apologetic:
 
Paisley park, Monkfish & Chacun Pour Soi to name 3

My weakness is those fancied horses that I think are too short to start with but keep getting shorter through the course of the season. I end up including in multiples are shorter prices to have some form of cover but still feels like missed opportunities!
 
Paisley Park is probably the only one I really wish I had onside. I couldnt have him at 8/1 given the reasons behind his run in last years stayers but I should have been more forgiving and now I can't have him at 7/2 on value grounds.

I dont have Zanahiyr and whilst I would obviously rather be sitting on a 50/1 ticket or two I can live with missing him as the market probably still has a lot of developing to do.

I have made a point of not backing BDD for the mares chase and that too could bite me in the backside come March but again I am OK to take my chances.
 
The 2 big ones for me are Galvin and Zanahiyr. Plenty on here have made very good and strong cases about Galvin but I wasn't convinced he'd stay until after the Cheltenham race and the value had gone. He's absolutely the right favourite but at 5-1 he's too short for me now with the potential for a couple of clasy horses running in this.

Zanahiyr I wasn't bothered about because it was early in the season for the Triumph. However his win lto was very impressive and I probably should have added straight after when I think 8s was available. The more I look at him the more I think he's the winner but again 4-1 is too short for me for a race where the winner quite possibly hasn't been seen at all yet.
 
Imperial aura - thought has was just a decent handicapper who would get found out against graded horses
- left him at 25/1 and although he’s definitely better than I gave him credit for I still think he’ll get found out in the Ryanair and is too short now
 
Sir Gerhard and Zanahiyr for me.

I fully expected Sir Gerhard to be over hurdles quickly and backed him for the Supreme, expecting Ballyadam to be in the Ballymore. I cashed out a while ago, but in the meantime his Bumper price crashed.

Zanahiyr is a schoolboy error. I thought I'd backed him and hadn't. Probably one of those situations where I didn't hit the confirm button by mistake. I definitely did something because I added him into my excel and diary and had to take him out again. I've been through all my accounts and there definitely isn't a bet anywhere.

I have Imperial Aura in a couple of very early antepost multiples at the opening price, but can't back him in a single at 7/1.

I'll be looking to get all of these onside from roll-ups, but just can't find the right horse/bet to roll-up from. Hopefully Christmas will sort it out.
 
Great thread this.

I’m never one to get stuck into novices this far out so I will always miss the prices but the one that annoys me most is Zanahiyr but I do think he’s bad value now....
 
Sir gerhard

I am partial to an elliot hype horse absolutely no idea why I had nothing on
 
Ive well and truly missed the zanahir bus but those with william hill accounts can make up for missed opportunities in the handicap markets, where most market leaders are still double figure prices!
 
Envoi Allen.

Don't think I have one bet with him in.
:soap:
Fingers crossed for a stone bruise ! :beaten::highly_amused:

Obviously prefer to see him run to be fair.

I will consider putting him in every NRNB I make. Making them all doubles.
May do the same with Epatante, and possibly Shishkin, although he is my least likely of the three.
 
I guess in reality I haven't missed them yet but I have been holding off backing Fusil Raffles for the Marsh Chase and Frodon for the Ryanair. Both horses have run well enough already this season and I can see them performing well at the Festival.

Part of me though thinks they could be wasted bets given the class of Envoi Allen and the unlikelihood that Frodon will regain his Ryannair crown. Another part of me thinks it will be inevitable that they will win if I don't back them.

I'm going to wait it out a bit longer, see what Free bets come my way and then will more than likely push the button.
 
Supreme - Dusart, maybe, could have chanced him before he ran and I'd have been in a better sport.
Mares - Concertista - halved in price and looks really solid.
Ballymore - Bravemansgame, Star Gate both possibly, especially the latter as I did like him a lot prior to his last run which was v. good.
QMCC - Notebook possibly as he's 16/1 and I'm not on at all but know he was 40s
Cross Country - Potters Corner - single figures and not even on my radar really.
Bumper - Kilcruit - currently Willie's shortest priced horse so if that was still the case in March I'd feel I'd missed out.
Stayers Hurdle - Sire Du Berlais - single figures, dual festival winner. Not one I'm that upset about but given the chance I'd rather be on him that not now.
Mares Novice - Shewearsitwell and Princess Zoe - missed both, looks like I may get lucky on that though.
Foxhunters - Billaway - Not a race I really tend to get stuck into and sat out the last opportunity on him as thought it wasn't a gimmie so now I've "missed the price".


That about sums up every horse though to be honest that I'd want backed that I haven't got currently...and even some of the above I can do without.


Too early to worry about missing anything in the handicaps, and in 2 weeks time this list could be massive especially in the novice hurdle division... but we'll see :)
 
Zanahiyr for me. Was eyeing him up the morning of the day he ran, then got distracted and missed the price.
 
Quevega said:
Envoi Allen.

Don't think I have one bet with him in.
:soap:
Fingers crossed for a stone bruise ! :beaten::highly_amused:

Obviously prefer to see him run to be fair.

I will consider putting him in every NRNB I make. Making them all doubles.
May do the same with Epatante, and possibly Shishkin, although he is my least likely of the three.
Click to expand...

What price would be too short for you to do that?

I don't know if I'll be brave enough to do that, would absolutely love to though.
 
Kevloaf said:
What price would be too short for you to do that?

I don't know if I'll be brave enough to do that, would absolutely love to though.
Click to expand...

I've been thinking about it, and it may well be too short.
It's difficult as they often go too short and better is available after decs.

However, this may not be the case with this one as he could even get shorter if other horses shy away.
I'd like to think 4/6, but if Epatante is bigger I'll go all in with her, I've already done several with her.

She may go into a few once they go NRNB in the championship races. Especially if evens, but I fear that will be around 4/6 also if she wins the xmas hurdle.

Shishkin does not deserve to be the price he is now, that's piss poor.
And Henderson is unlikely to overface him next time.

If I could be arsed I'd lay Shishkin at 5/4 as his division may well have the most competition come March.

I'm expecting the prices to be too short though so may wait till the festival itself for my on the day bets, unless I figure it will definitely shorten.
 
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