'Value' horses for Cheltenham festival

[Bigfish]

These are horses that are in the shadows of the betting but most have at one time been highlighted earlier in the season but under performed maybe because of riding instructions or prep. races over inadequate/ wrong distance. I think they've been written off prematurely. . Sharjah, Ar Mad, Sizing Tennessee, Scarlet Dragon, L' Ami Serge, Blow by Blow, Finians Oscar, Moon racer, Grey Waters, Sutton Place , Wicklow Brave, Western Ryder , Tombstone, and Kayf Grace. I'lll be having a play late in the day now with some e/w multis. I've already backed some at nice odds which have since shortened I must say. Good luck all

 

[Istabraq]

Most value is found in horses from unfashionable yards, rarely does anything from Mullins, Elliott and Hendo stay under the radar.
I was checking the Gold Cup market last night and on the strength of his last run Definitely Red should be single figures, but I guess a combination of being a Northern raider and from a less known yard,with absolutely no disrespect to the Ellisons intended, I guess this is why he’s still a decent price

 

[Quevega]

Most value is found in horses from unfashionable yards, rarely does anything from Mullins, Elliott and Hendo stay under the radar.
I was checking the Gold Cup market last night and on the strength of his last run Definitely Red should be single figures, but I guess a combination of being a Northern raider and from a less known yard,with absolutely no disrespect to the Ellisons intended, I guess this is why he’s still a decent price

Sutton Place is interesting as the two races he is in, look winnable/placeable, and on the day if he turned up, would be lot shorter because of connections. Hills were 50's last thursday and 33s for other race.
Anyone heard anything about this horse ?
Had he fallen after his mistake, and not eventually been pulled up, he would also be a bit shorter.
Sure Elliott said it was one of his best, if not the best staying novice chaser for this season, certainly said it to the voice prior to dublin festival.

 

[Westo97]

I have thrown a few shillings at Scarlett Dragon EW at 50s after the Kempton run. More speculative but definite ability over hurdles and happy to have a stab at that price. One other horse I like who little underrated is Snow Falcon. I really like the look of her for the Brown advisory if she goes that route. She has taken well to fences and her chase mark looks workable for sure.

 

[Istabraq]

I have thrown a few shillings at Scarlett Dragon EW at 50s after the Kempton run. More speculative but definite ability over hurdles and happy to have a stab at that price. One other horse I like who little underrated is Snow Falcon. I really like the look of her for the Brown advisory if she goes that route. She has taken well to fences and her chase mark looks workable for sure.

Had a decent few quid on his NH debut, I still wake up with cold sweats thinking about the ride Hutch gave him.
With his flat rating he would be the class in the race for sure and although ex flats don't win this now at 50s he is value...

 

[doctorwu]

Most value is found in horses from unfashionable yards, rarely does anything from Mullins, Elliott and Hendo stay under the radar.
I was checking the Gold Cup market last night and on the strength of his last run Definitely Red should be single figures, but I guess a combination of being a Northern raider and from a less known yard,with absolutely no disrespect to the Ellisons intended, I guess this is why he’s still a decent price

Ista,
Are unfashionable yards value???? Its generally because they don't win races at the festival. Apart from the Irish trainers I'm very weary backing any horse trained by one of these unfashionable trainers.

 

[Quevega]

Had a decent few quid on his NH debut, I still wake up with cold sweats thinking about the ride Hutch gave him.
With his flat rating he would be the class in the race for sure and although ex flats don't win this now at 50s he is value...

Flat bred stat, went out window last year, when first two home were flat breds/raced on flat. That stat was solid for a good 6/7 years prior to last year.
And it was a below average renewal like this year, so I give almost anything a chance.

 

[Istabraq]

Flat bred stat, went out window last year, when first two home were flat breds/raced on flat. That stat was solid for a good 6/7 years prior to last year.
And it was a below average renewal like this year, so I give almost anything a chance.

Agree, but for some reason I've erased last year from my head, maybe the controversy surrounding the winner and even greater controversy surrounding his owner.
Wrong I know, but I just can't relate to the race

 

[Istabraq]

Ista,
Are unfashionable yards value???? Its generally because they don't win races at the festival. Apart from the Irish trainers I'm very weary backing any horse trained by one of these unfashionable trainers.

Definitely, their price reflects their record, but very occasionally they have a good one who for me would be shorter if trained at a crack set up....

 

[Coneygme]

Slate House still available at 33s. I'm on at 50s which I hope represents good value.

 

[Lessey]

I think that Cloudy dream in the Ryanair represents good value at 14/1 still...I know you can question the horses temperament in a finish but he's clearly super talented, got good graded form from 2m up to 3m1f, will go on almost any ground, target is confirmed and he'll will be travelling all over the leaders round the bend!

What he finds up the hill is questionable but given how this race is going to cut up CD to place at >3/1 is my bet off he festival - he's never finished outside of the first 3 in 18 starts (9 graded races)

 

[doctorwu]

I think that Cloudy dream in the Ryanair represents good value at 14/1 still...I know you can question the horses temperament in a finish but he's clearly super talented, got good graded form from 2m up to 3m1f, will go on almost any ground, target is confirmed and he'll will be travelling all over the leaders round the bend!

What he finds up the hill is questionable but given how this race is going to cut up CD to place at >3/1 is my bet off he festival - he's never finished outside of the first 3 in 18 starts (9 graded races)

Not a bad shout Lessey.

 

[Lessey]

Not a bad shout Lessey.

Obviously I'm assuming Waiting Patiently doesn't turn up for the Ryanair so CD will also have B.Hughes on him who must know him inside out

 

[MrMcGoldrick]

Double Shuffle in the Gold cup, I've never known the runner up in the King George be given such little consideration. It was his first try over 3m, definitely wasn't stopping at the end, Sizing John was persevered with for two seasons before they concluded he needed further, then look what happened, now DS can be ridden as a stayer I think he could run a huge race, I've been nibbling accordingly

 

[Kevloaf]

Double Shuffle in the Gold cup, I've never known the runner up in the King George be given such little consideration. It was his first try over 3m, definitely wasn't stopping at the end, Sizing John was persevered with for two seasons before they concluded he needed further, then look what happened, now DS can be ridden as a stayer I think he could run a huge race, I've been nibbling accordingly

Not sure it was his first try over 3m MrM...

2 runs at Kempton over 3m and attempted the Grand National?

Beat Go Conquer, 2nd behind Pilgrims Bay and PU in the GN....

40/1 is a price where you don't need a lot of convincing though and that form over the trip is good, if you also include the second behind Might Bite.

He's certainly not priced up correctly with Might Bite on that run...

 

[MrMcGoldrick]

Not sure it was his first try over 3m MrM...

2 runs at Kempton over 3m and attempted the Grand National?

Beat Go Conquer, 2nd behind Pilgrims Bay and PU in the GN....

40/1 is a price where you don't need a lot of convincing though and that form over the trip is good, if you also include the second behind Might Bite.

He's certainly not priced up correctly with Might Bite on that run...

Sorry Kev, I was thinking of trying at that level really, should be detrimental but given the better grade and pace he seemed to relish it. I think connections felt he was better suited to shorter, and put him in races where he couldn't lay up notably against Top Notch, 2nd, over 2m5f I think, the run in the KG may have been an anomaly but I don't take that view

 

[MrMcGoldrick]

DS is also owned by the crossed fingers partnership, and if that doesn't work nothing will

 

[Birds Nest]

Bunk off early if he turns up ..Can excused his Cheltenham, Punch runs as suffering from colic..Remember Ruby saying there was not a lot between him and melon before the supreme.ran well after his rehabilitation twice now over fences but now entered up in a couple of fest hurdles..Interesting..

 

[MrMcGoldrick]

Bunk off early if he turns up ..Can excused his Cheltenham, Punch runs as suffering from colic..Remember Ruby saying there was not a lot between him and melon before the supreme.ran well after his rehabilitation twice now over fences but now entered up in a couple of fest hurdles..Interesting..

That is interesting, was one of my most confident bets last year, gutting that run

 

[Coneygme]

Bunk off early if he turns up ..Can excused his Cheltenham, Punch runs as suffering from colic..Remember Ruby saying there was not a lot between him and melon before the supreme.ran well after his rehabilitation twice now over fences but now entered up in a couple of fest hurdles..Interesting..

Which race?