2.00 Goodwood – Matchbook Betting Exchange Stakes (Handicap)
Perennially a very tricky opening race to the Festival, highlighted by the fact that seven of the last ten winners were sent off at double-figures. That doesn’t particularly bode well for the current jolly Shakopee although the only favourite to have landed this in the last decade was Mount Logan last year, also trained by Luca Cumani. The lightly-raced four-year-old has clearly had his problems and entered this year having had only three runs in his opening two campaigns, albeit looking a potentially smart animal on each occasion. It took him a couple of runs to get going this year but the way in which he kicked clear at Doncaster last time really caught the eye. The form of that run has since been franked by Goodwood Mirage who scored at Sandown last week and makes a 7lb rise for his latest win look fairly reasonable. The suspicion is that there may be better to come but he could just find one or two a bit more streetwise in a competitive race such as this.
Mark Johnston has been the man with a plan when it comes to this race over the years having landed four of the last ten renewals. The master of Middleham has a quartet of runners this year in a bid to increase his already stellar record, headed by recent Newbury scorer Stars Over The Sea. Roger Brookhouse’s five-year-old had an up and down spell over hurdles for David Pipe before returning to the Johnston yard a few months back and showed some of his old vigour with a comfortable victory last time. A 6lb rise for that looks fair from the assessor although he may not get it all his own way in front this time.
Watersmeet looks to be the number one pick on jockey bookings as the choice of Joe Fanning but is at the time of writing, the least fancied of the four Johnston runners. He is another that will likely be up with the pace and wasn’t beaten far off this mark a couple of starts back at Newmarket. Top weight Revolutionist looks to be in the grip of the handicapper now off a career-high mark of 107 for all that the faster underfoot conditions should suit him better than when down the field in the John Smith’s Cup last time while Fire Fighting has been consistent this year and wasn’t beaten all that far in the same York race latest and has been given a chance off a 2lb lower mark.
Godolphin also hold a strong hand here with a pair of fancied runners and Second Wave is likely to have his fair share of supporters on the back of his close-up second in the Listed Wolferton Handicap at Royal Ascot last time out. That was an impressive performance returning from a near six month break and he retains the hood that was applied for the first time at the Royal Meeting here, which should help him settle as he has a tendency to prove a tad keen in his races. 4lb higher now, he must still be considered given how few miles he has on the clock but preference is for the apparent second-string for the Boys in Blue, BEST OF TIMES.
He is another lightly-raced four-year-old and could have a bit to prove after three low-key performances so far this year. However, although I’m not one for excuses, there are explanations for each run this year. He could be forgiven needing his Chester reappearance after a year off, but travelled powerfully throughout only to be denied by trouble in running due to a wide draw. His sixth in the Wolferton was a perfectly reasonable effort and he could well have finished closer had not attempted to change legs at a crucial stage in the final furlong. It’s best to put a line completely through his run in the Coral Challenge at Sandown when William Buick made a puzzling decision to pull him to the near side rail only for the majority of the field to power away down the middle of the track. His mark of 105 hasn’t changed since the beginning of the campaign and a couple of lbs respite from the assessor would have been preferable, but if he is the same horse that finished second in the Listed Cocked Hat Stakes behind subsequent Irish Derby runner-up Storm The Stars at Goodwood last May, he would have a massive say in matters.
One that can’t go without mention is Erik The Red who has been most consistent this year. Kevin Ryan’s charge has finished in the frame in valuable handicaps at Haydock, York and Leopardstown this season and with the services of Ryan Moore now in the plate, he could well run a big race.
MY Advice
BEST OF TIMES – 0.5pt e/w @ 12/1 (Sky Bet, Ladbrokes)
2.35 Goodwood – Qatar Vintage Stakes (Group 2)
The best place to start with this race is to look at the Group 2 Superlative Stakes at Newmarket’s July Meeting, where Godolphin’s BOYNTON ran out a good winner over the re-opposing War Decree from the all-conquering Aidan O’Brien stable, who was extremely well-backed before the off. It was a brilliant performance from the Charlie Appleby-trained colt as he had to come from the rear of the field whilst overcoming a little keenness early on, whereas his rival in second had pretty much the run of the race from a prominent position.
The More Than Ready colt battled on well at the end of the race as well, despite a slightly high head carriage, and could well have been value for more than the three-quarters of a length winning margin, so even though he’ll have to carry a 3lb penalty for that win, I’m not sure whether that alone will be enough for O’Brien’s charge to overturn the form – horses carrying a penalty have gone well in this race historically, Olympic Glory & King Torus both won the race under a penalty in the last six renewals.
The draw (8) shouldn’t be a problem as he’s a horse that is usually dropped in so that he can settle better and given that four of the last five winners have ‘held-up’ appearing in the description of how they won the race, you’d be very hopeful that, in a field of 10, traffic problems wouldn’t be too much of an issue. Boynton also has experience of the course after he won his maiden here, defeating the useful Mutawatheb, and that’s always a big advantage for these two-year-olds on such a unique track.
As for War Decree, if he can jump well from his rail draw in 1 and be prominent once again, he’ll be a big threat, especially if he’s come on for that run behind Boynton at Newmarket. The War Front colt will love the ground too and strictly at the weights, he’s 3lb better off for being beaten by less than a length, even though that’s not always the most reliable pointer for two-year-old form. He won his maiden well on quick ground over this trip and even though it hasn’t worked out brilliantly, with no other horse in the race having won yet, he could well be the one they all have to catch entering the final furlong.
Away from that race, possibly the best form is brought by Andrew Balding’s Isomer, who was half a length behind Churchill in the Listed Chesham Stakes at Royal Ascot and then a facile winner of a Salisbury maiden despite running the final couple of furlongs with a saddle that had slipped. He’s a horse that has shown he stays seven furlongs extremely well and certainly won’t be weakening at the finish, but the suspicion is that in this company and on as sharp a track as Goodwood is, he might lack for that top-class speed at a key stage in the race.
One of the most unexposed horses in the field comes from a stable that have won this race four times in the last six years (admittedly when Richard Hannon Snr was in charge). Larchmont Lad hacked up on his racecourse debut at Sandown Park, beating next-time-out winner Maths Prize by over three lengths and making a serious impression. Hannon is famous for his excellent two-year-olds and he clearly likes this son of Footstepsinthesand, as does the market, making him third favourite in this competitive-looking race, but it’s a big ask to see him beating the two at the head of the market.
Repton is the other representative from the Hannon stable and it’s interesting that he’s being stepped up to seven furlongs now after winning over five last time. He’s got a bit of stamina through his Dam’s line so it’s not an impossibility that he’ll get this trip, but he has looked very speedy so far, being by Zebedee so it’s a big question mark for me. However, the step up in trip could unlock plenty of improvement so he can’t be dismissed, especially coming from this stable, but that improvement will have to be very substantial as he’s probably facing off against a couple of Guineas horses for next season.
Finally, Thunder Snow is worth a close look, despite finishing a well-beaten eighth in the Coventry behind the excellent Caravaggio. He’s a close relative of Always Smile, Ihtimal and First Victory, so there’s plenty of ability in his family and you’d definitely expect more to come from the Helmet colt. All of those relatives stayed at least seven furlongs and even though this will be his first attempt at the trip, the quick ground will help him there. James McDonald is also booked to ride, so there will be plenty of confidence from the saddle too and at 14/1, he could be the each-way play in the race.
MY Advice
BOYNTON – 2pts win @ 5/2 (Paddy Power, William Hill)
3.10 Goodwood – Qatar Lennox Stakes (Group 2)
With three of the eight declared runners running in the Godolphin blue here, the commentator on duty will have to keep a close eye on the caps if the respective jockeys. They look to hold a strong hand and the first to mention is Richard Fahey’s Birchwood who bounced back to form when winning at Listed level last time. The three-year-old had some good form as a juvenile notably when an unlucky fifth here in the Vintage Stakes as well as his third in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile behind Hit It A Bomb. The fitting of a visor seemed to rejuvenate the colt and although he has a bit to find with the leading protagonists, he could go well under Ryan Moore.
However, the race looks likely to centre on the front two in the market and it is easy to make a case for course and distance winner Dutch Connection. Charlie Hills’ colt won his maiden at this meeting two years ago and has performed consistently well subsequently. His only win following that effort came in the Jersey Stakes last year where the combination of seven furlongs and fast ground seemed to bring out the best in him. He was also a close second to Toormore in this race, although the ground would have been slower than ideal on that occasion. I expect him to run well under James McDonald, who is riding as well as anyone at the minute but he found one too good last year and I think that may be the case again here.
The one who appeals most is HOME OF THE BRAVE who had some smart form last season, but there is no doubt he has improved this year, winning twice in Listed and Group 3 company. He seems to have learned to settle in front and from an inside draw, he is perfectly placed to dictate proceedings here. Goodwood is notorious for horses encountering trouble in running and as we saw last year, it can be difficult to peg a front-runner back on this undulating course. James Doyle gets on very well with the four-year-old having won four times on him and I think everything is set up for him to give a bold display. He has a good turn of foot which Doyle will be hoping to use off the front and I think he is the one they all have to beat.
I should also mention his stablemate Gifted Master who is one of only three three-year-olds in the line-up. He enjoyed a fine start to the campaign, winning twice over six furlongs before finishing third behind Quiet Reflection in the Sandy Lane Stakes at Haydock. His trainer believes his best trip is seven furlongs and whilst he was undone by the ground last time, he is interesting back on a sounder surface.
The final one to look at is Markaz who got the rewards for a number of consistent efforts when landing the Chipchase Stakes at Newcastle a few weeks ago. Owen Burrows’ colt saw out the six furlongs really well on that occasion but he is equally adept at seven and the yard continues to fire in the winners. He has plenty to find with Home Of The Brave on their Leicester form but he can’t be ruled out if backing up his latest effort.
MY Advice
HOME OF THE BRAVE – 1.5pts win @ 9/4 (Bet365, William Hill, SkyBet)
3.45 Goodwood – Better Odds With Matchbook Summer Stakes (Handicap]
The hat-trick seeking King Bolete will likely have his fair share of followers and has looked a much improved horse since being gelded and joining Roger Varian over the winter. On both occasions at Ascot and Haydock, the four-year-old has led from pillar to post and showed a great deal of grit and determination to hold off all challengers for the win. However, he may not have everything his own way in front this time and the only other time he has attempted this trip was when he was well beaten in the Melrose Stakes at York last August. When you also take into account a 10lb rise in the handicap, there are enough reasons to avoid him here for all that he is clearly in the form of his life.
Therefore, preference is for NOTARISED who represents last year’s winning trainer Mark Johnston. The five-year-old has proved very versatile in terms of ground and trip and produced arguably his best performance of this campaign over course and distance back in May when third behind subsequent Duke of Edinburgh Handicap winner Kinema having only ceded the lead inside the final half furlong. His Goodwood record is actually a very good one with a C&D win to his name, two thirds and his only out of the frame effort coming in this race 12 months ago when a close-up sixth off a 5lb higher mark. He hasn’t raced off a mark as low as 98 since landing the Old Newton Cup last year off only 2lb lower and looks primed for a big run here.
Qewy is an interesting contender for Charlie Appleby having finished a fantastic runner-up in the Ascot Stakes at the Royal meeting in June. That was his first run for the yard following an in and out spell over obstacles for John Ferguson and he looked to be more at home back on the level. However, that was over six furlongs further than today’s trip and in testing conditions so this race may not completely play to his strengths.
Old Newton Cup winner Tawdeea really caught the eye when staying on strongly at Haydock earlier in the month and, although well fancied in the John Smith’s Cup next time, the drop in trip probably just found him out. He steps up to 1m6f for the first time here and the big strapping four-year-old looks just the type to relish this kind of stamina test. A career-high mark of 104 will be no easy task to overcome though and the suspicion is that he will find a couple of rivals on better terms here.
Gold Prince finished a length and a half behind him at Haydock last time and has been ultra-consistent all year for the in-form Sylvester Kirk yard. However, he now finds himself 10lb higher than at the beginning of the campaign without a win to his name and may prove more effective with a bit of cut in the ground.
MY Advice
NOTARISED – 1pt e/w @ 10/1 (Bet365, Paddy Power)
