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The COUNTY Handicap Hurdle

Saxon Warrior

Saxon Warrior

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TO CLOSE BY NOON ON FEBRUARY 18th

CHELTENHAM

Friday, March 14th

THE RANDOX HEALTH COUNTY HANDICAP HURDLE RACE (CLASS 1)
(Premier Hcap)

TOTAL RACE VALUE GBP 100,000

Distributed in accordance with Stakes and Prize Money Code
GBP 56,270 to the winning horse
The second to receive GBP 21,200,
the third GBP 10,610, the fourth GBP 5,300,
the fifth GBP 2,660,
the sixth GBP 1,330,
the seventh GBP 660 and
the eighth GBP 340

for five yrs old and upwards

TWO MILES ABOUT ONE FURLONG (2m 179yds)

Enter by noon, February 18th and pay GBP 125 stake
Confirm by noon, March 8th and pay GBP 375
Declare by 10.00 a.m. March 12th
Weights published on February 23rd

Penalties, after February 23rd, 2025, a winner of a hurdle race
(No penalty to increase a horse’s weight above 11st 12lb)


PLEASE NOTE: A novice horse shall only be qualified to run in this race if it has run a minimum of FIVE times in Hurdle Races in Great Britain, Ireland or France in accordance with paragraph 15 of the Weights and Handicapping Code​









2025 Kargesse 5-11-3 3/1F. Willie Mullins - Paul Townend RPR 144 (OR 141) 16 ran

2024 Absurde 6-10-10 12/1. Willie Mullins - Paul Townend RPR 145(OR 138) 17 ran

2023 Faivoir 8-10-7 33/1. Dan Skelton - Bridget Andrews RPR 141 (OR 134) 24 ran
​
2022 State Man 5-11-1 11/4F. W P Mullins - Paul Townend RPR 141 (OR 149) 26 ran

2021 Belfast Banter 6-10-0 33/1 Peter Fahey - Kevin Sexton RPR 137 (OR 129) 25 ran

2020 Saint Roi 5-10-13 11/2F. W P Mullins - Barry Geraghty RPR 151 (OR 137) 24 ran

2019 Ch’tibello 8-11-5. 12/1. Dan Skelton - Harry Skelton. RPR 154 (OR 146) 24 ran

2018 Mohaayed. 6-10-8. 33/1. Dan Skelton - Bridget Andrews 3. RPR 145 (OR 139) 24 ran

2017 Arctic Fire. 8-11-12 20/1. W P Mullins - Paul Townend. RPR 163 (OR 158) 25 ran

2016 Superb Story. 5-10-12 8/1. Dan Skelton - Harry Skelton. RPR 148 (OR 138) 26 ran

2015 Wicklow Brave 6-11-4. 25/1. W P Mullins - Paul Townend. RPR 153 (OR 138) 24 ran

2014 Lac Fontana. 5-10-11. 11/1 Paul Nicholls - Daryl Jacob. RPR 149 (OR 139) 28 ran

2025 1st OR 141, 2nd OR 140, 3rd OR 146, 4th OR 143; (High OR 152, Lowest OR 127)
2024 1st OR 138, 2nd OR 135, 3rd OR 156, 4th OR 144 (High OR 156, Lowest OR 130)
2023 1st OR 134, 2nd OR 154, 3rd OR 141, 4th OR 155: (High OR 155, Lowest OR 134)​
2022 1st OR 141, 2nd OR 142, 3rd OR 140, 4th OR 141: (High OR 152, Lowest OR 134)
2021 1st OR 129, 2nd OR 155, 3rd OR 140, 4th OR 139: (High OR 156, Lowest OR 129)
2020 1st OR 137, 2nd OR 149, 3rd OR 146, 4th OR 141: (High OR 150, Lowest OR 132)
2019 1st OR 146, 2nd OR 152, 3rd OR 133, 4th OR 144: (High OR 153, Lowest OR 127)
2018 1st OR 139, 2nd OR 144, 3rd OR 141, 4th OR 140: (High OR 154, Lowest OR 133)
2017 1st OR 158, 2nd OR 152, 3rd OR 135, 4th OR 140: (High OR 158, Lowest OR 135)
2016 1st OR 138, 2nd OR 145, 3rd OR 142, 4th OR 139: (High OR 152, Lowest OR 138)
2015 1st OR 134, 2nd OR 134, 3rd OR 136, 4th OR 137: (High OR 146, Lowest OR 134)
2014 1st OR 139, 2nd OR 141, 3rd OR 140, 4th OR 154: (High OR 154, Lowest OR 132)
-----------​









…..2025 TREND ANALYSIS for reference;

1) AGE;
The County Handicap Hurdle has been a good race for an emerging horse to come out of the pack since 2013, with nine of the last 12 winners being aged either five of six.

That trend continued last year when Absurde won aged six. The oldest winner since 2020 was Faivoir for Dan Skelton, aged eight.

2) FAVOURITES POOR RECORD;
The market has typically proven to be incorrect when making selections on the County Handicap Hurdle. That is reflected by the stat that there have only been two winning favourites of the race since 2013.

The most recent favourite to oblige was State Man in 2022 when sent off at a SP of 11/4. However, the long-term stats show that nine victors since 2013 have been priced at 10/1 or bigger. That includes 33/1 winners in the forms of Faivoir in 2023 and Belfast Banter in 2021.

3) RECENT EXPERIENCE;
Horses with a recent run behind them have fared well over the last 12 renewals, with nine winners having lined up within 80 days of the County Handicap Hurdle.

However, it may be wise to assess contenders that haven’t won during that period, with just three of the last 12 winners of the County Hurdle winning on their final start before heading to Cheltenham.
​
4) CHELTENHAM EXPERIENCE;
Experience around Cheltenham is also preferred when assessing the most likely County Handicap Hurdle winner.

Seven of the victors since 2013 have made at least one previous start at the course, but only two of the last 12 winners have recorded a previous win at Cheltenham. That could be a positive trend for horses such as Anzadam and Kitzbuhel, who are prominent in the market.

5) RATING;
The official rating of County Handicap Hurdle contender is essential reading. All but one of the winners of the race since 2013 have been rated between 134 and 141.

The highest rated winner of the race over this period was Arctic Fire off 158 for Willie Mullins in 2017. Meanwhile, the lowest rated winner since 2013 was Belfast Banter off 129 for trainer Peter Fahey in 2021.
​


Positives - Pre-2025 Festival

* 7 of the past 15 winners were trained by Willie Mullins
* 19 of the past 24 winners were either novices or second-season hurdlers
* 19 of the past 26 winners were aged 5 or 6
* 15 of the past 19 winners were rated in the 130s

* 4 of the past 9 winners were trained by Dan Skelton
* 14 of the past 21 winners were ex-Flat horses

* 12 of the past 18 winners were trained in Ireland
* 11 of the past 21 winners had run in France
* 9 of the past 17 winners returned at odds of 20-1 or greater

* 7 of the past 11 winners had run at Cheltenham previously
* 5 of the past 9 winners had a 72+ day break

* Respect hold-up performer


Negatives - Pre-2025 Festival

* Only 1 of the past 26 winners was aged 9
* Only 2 of the past 23 winners were outright favourite
* Only 2 winners this century were rated higher than 146

* Only 2 English trainers have won the race in the past 19 years
* Only 3 of the past 21 winners carried more than 11-1

* Horses aged 9+ are 0-39 during the past 17 years
* Nicky Henderson is 0-35 this century
* Gordon Elliott is 0-25 since 2011
----------​






Early Entries in the County Hurdle at the 2025 Cheltenham Festival:
  1. Absurde (FR)
  2. Afadil (FR)
  3. All In You (FR)
  4. Alnilam (FR)
  5. Aspire Tower (IRE)
  6. Aucunrisque (FR)
  7. Batman Girac (FR)
  8. Bunting (FR)
  9. Burdett Road
  10. Colonel Mustard (FR)
  11. Cormier (IRE)
  12. Country Park (IRE)
  13. Cracking Rhapsody (IRE)
  14. Daddy Long Legs (FR)
  15. Ethical Diamond (IRE)
  16. Farren Glory (IRE)
  17. Favour And Fortune (IRE)
  18. Fenway Park (IRE)
  19. Fils d’Oudairies (FR)
  20. First Street
  21. Florida Dreams (IRE)
  22. Gala Marceau (FR)
  23. Gaucher
  24. Gentleman Bill (IRE)
  25. Go Dante
  26. Hansard (IRE)
  27. Highwind (FR)
  28. Hunters Yarn (IRE)
  29. Iberico Lord (FR)
  30. Irish Panther
  31. Jimmy du Seuil (FR)
  32. Jipcot (FR)
  33. Kabral du Mathan (FR)
  34. Kala Conti (FR)
  35. Kap Vert (FR)
  36. Karafon (FR)
  37. Kargese (FR)
  38. Karniquet (FR)
  39. King of Kingsfield (IRE)
  40. Kings Hill (IRE)
  41. Knickerbockerglory (IRE)
  42. Kopeck de Mee (FR)
  43. Lario (GER)
  44. Lark In The Mornin (GER)
  45. Lump Sum (FR)
  46. McLaurey (IRE)
  47. Milldam (FR)
  48. Mirabad (FR)
  49. My Mate Mozzie (IRE)
  50. Ndaawi
  51. Norman Fletcher
  52. Ooh Betty (IRE)
  53. Our Champ (IRE)
  54. Petrol Head (IRE)
  55. Pied Piper
  56. Pinot Gris (IRE)
  57. Raglan Road (IRE)
  58. Royal Way (FR)
  59. Samui
  60. Slugger
  61. Spirit d’Aunou (FR)
  62. Stormalong (IRE)
  63. Stormbreaker
  64. Stream of Stars
  65. Tellherthename (IRE)
  66. The Enabler (IRE)
  67. Tounsivator (FR)
  68. Valgrand (FR)
  69. Vischio (IRE)
  70. We’re Red And Blue
  71. Welsh Charger (IRE)
  72. Wilful (IRE)
  73. Williethebuilder (IRE)
​
 
Last edited by a moderator:
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7 winners in last 12 year's rated 137-139. Something to look out for. Skelton also has a superb recent record in the race.
 
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Thanks Saxon for putting these threads up. What would we do without you. applause.....
 
Just be wary guys if backing the current fav in this. West Cork got struck into in his last race and picked up a nasty cut which excuses him from the poor run but will hold him up going forward.
 
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NRNB probably the best way to go with him to be on the safe side ?
 
I love having a position in every race before the festival, but this is impossible to call this for out.

Gun to my head, I'd back Echo's in rain if I had to have a bet today. but you really need to see what comes out of the DRF in the G1 Novice races before you can take a view.

Question for the group, Saint Felicien, what is the plan with the horse? needs a handicap mark but times getting on and he needs 2 runs to my knowledge?
 
JamieSensible said:
Question for the group, Saint Felicien, what is the plan with the horse? needs a handicap mark but times getting on and he needs 2 runs to my knowledge?
Click to expand...

No idea on the plan but he only needs 1 more run, so plenty of time if they're thinking along these lines.
 
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Shouldn’t have too much trouble finding him a race to get beat in
 
Atlantic Viking said:
No idea on the plan but he only needs 1 more run, so plenty of time if they're thinking along these lines.
Click to expand...

Oh well that's better than I thought, his form isn't bad so far from the 1 run in Ireland. The horse he beat in second Slip of the tongue was behind Quilixious and Teehupoo in his next run so that's a decent level of form Considering he was eased down.

But I really need to see him slightly deeper waters, without ruining the mark, otherwise he's another Saint Roi and you're taking a big risk
 
I'm just going to spit ball a few ideas here..
  • Cask Mate - Noel Meade, Entered in the Betfair Hurdle at Newbury in February, looks a potential Noel Meade plot job, if it doesn't do the job there it may come here? not seen it priced up anywhere unless anyone knows otherwise. (OR 139) Not Priced.
  • Farout -- Willie Mullins, so far ran in two Grade 1s this year, never looked like wining. Handicap plot job? Never good enough to win and pushed by the owners? Under performing? current mark (OR 137) Best Price 20/1
  • Esky Lane - Gordon Elliot, I've mentioned this horse on the Handicap thread previously and made the case there. (OR 145) Best Price 25/1
  • Broomfield Burg - Seems like the obvious pick, improving horse, Cheltenham run this season, also has an entry in the Betfair Hurdle at Newbury, if he doesn't go close there he'd have to go close here. (OR 134). Best Price 20/1
Penny for the forums thoughts?
 
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Really rare I'll go handicap betting this far out and with no NRNB but i really can't get away from Echoes in Rain for this now. Not exactly groundbreaking so was surprised to still see 16's with 365. She doesn't look ready for a Champion Hurdle tilt yet and is surely too keen for the Mares.

A nice down the field performance at the DRF in a high class race should see her hopefully nicely weighted too. Looking forward to NRNB so i can tip away at this.
 
Echoes might not even get into a County Hurdle if she keeps performing as she has this season! :wink-new:
 
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Whiskey Sour entered in the Betfair Hurdle is currently rated 145 and has placed twice in the County already. I wonder if Willie will get a few down the field runs into him just as he did with Wicklow Brave and get him in here off the high 130's. I know hes 9, but he missed 2 years and watching his latest run the jockey was rather easy on him to my eye. He could be one for the coral/county shortlist
 
Jrow said:
Whiskey Sour entered in the Betfair Hurdle is currently rated 145 and has placed twice in the County already. I wonder if Willie will get a few down the field runs into him just as he did with Wicklow Brave and get him in here off the high 130's. I know hes 9, but he missed 2 years and watching his latest run the jockey was rather easy on him to my eye. He could be one for the coral/county shortlist
Click to expand...

Also I believe he ran in one of the key Irish handicaps that Saxon Warrior pointed out as being significant for this.
 
The problem horses like whiskey sour seem to have recently is there always seems to be an unexposed novice better handicapped than them
 
FinalFurlong91 said:
The problem horses like whiskey sour seem to have recently is there always seems to be an unexposed novice better handicapped than them
Click to expand...

I agree ...I was going to add a few things but now is not the time
 
I always try and pick out Willie's darts for the 2 big hurdle handicaps as early as possible. Another horse who is on my radar for the county is Saint Roi. hes on the same mark as Arctic Fire when he won and his reappearance run was encouraging. Hes not good enough for the CH but may be able to defy top weight in this :ghost:
 
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