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The Boodles Juvenile Handicap Hurdle

Saxon Warrior said:
No one was worried about Sire Du Berlais or The Storyteller getting beat in there handicap races and going out in price! :applause:

You have to ditch the “didn’t get on at the best price” nonsense Kev, it’s present value that matters more.
Those that have bigger prices usually took more risk before the form of horses is shown and understood.
For me 20/1 for Tronador on what I know now, is a very good price. Better that the 16s I got for BOO in this race last year.
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I am perfectly aware of how present value works. If you read my post, am I not clearly debating that exact point... at whether I think it's current value now.

Knowing I thought a horse was value at 33/1, doesn't mean when the bookies react and cut it to 20/1 I should still think it's value?


You getting on as the horse crosses the line is just circumstance, I clearly stated I wanted to do that but didn't get chance - doesn't mean 20/1 is now value. It means 33/1 was and they reacted....
 
Kevloaf said:
I am perfectly aware of how present value works. If you read my post, am I not clearly debating that exact point... at whether I think it's current value now.

Knowing I thought a horse was value at 33/1, doesn't mean when the bookies react and cut it to 20/1 I should still think it's value?


You getting on as the horse crosses the line is just circumstance, I clearly stated I wanted to do that but didn't get chance - doesn't mean 20/1 is now value. It means 33/1 was and they reacted....
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Okay Kev, completely understand that value is a personal thing. I think 20s is fair value still for Tronador, but appreciate a lot of people wouldn't share that thought. :encouragement:
 
Saxon Warrior said:
Okay Kev, completely understand that value is a personal thing. I think 20s is fair value still for Tronador, but appreciate a lot of people wouldn't share that thought. :encouragement:
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As per post #37, I half agreed - put a half stake bet on :p
 
Kevloaf said:
As per post #37, I half agreed - put a half stake bet on :p
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His run on saturday should reveal his handicap rating on Monday. Interesting that they are following almistvidentical path as Veneer if Charm, including a really quick third run back after a decent second run.
 
Saxon Warrior said:
His run on saturday should reveal his handicap rating on Monday. Interesting that they are following almistvidentical path as Veneer if Charm, including a really quick third run back after a decent second run.
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What price did veneer of charm go off at on the day ?
 
Saxon Warrior said:
33/1 I reckon, no-one saw a plan first time round.
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Don't think it was a plan, that's why.
Could be this time though.
Quite a lot get backed in this race.
The Nichols angle is solid enough, and Joseph's should be reliable, but Gordons are a little harder to get right. He's had a few run really well off big prices on the day.
What was that one that fell when it was going well, Carlito something.
 
The year Diego Du Charmil won Campeador fell at the last of Gordons and Willies Voix du reve also fell
 
billymag said:
The year Diego Du Charmil won Campeador fell at the last of Gordons and Willies Voix du reve also fell
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Anyone manage the fallers double there?

I was on Voix Du Reve but had missed the price on the JP runner :highly_amused:
 
Kevloaf said:
Anyone manage the fallers double there?

I was on Voix Du Reve but had missed the price on the JP runner :highly_amused:
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That is an unwanted record held by myself, I was at work getting commentary from my mate... still haven’t forgiven him
 
Kevloaf said:
Anyone manage the fallers double there?

I was on Voix Du Reve but had missed the price on the JP runner :highly_amused:
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Diego du Charmil was the third leg of a yankee that already yielded 2 winners at double digit odds.
The dream was shattered the next day when Garde Champatre clouted four out and hit the deck, obviously....
 
Any thoughts on a wave of the sea?
O’Brien won this race last year
 
Any entries for Fanfaron Dino? Was expecting to lurk at bigger prices for this.

Has Mr Honeyball indicated no Cheltenham target?
 
Istabraq said:
Diego du Charmil was the third leg of a yankee that already yielded 2 winners at double digit odds.
The dream was shattered the next day when Garde Champatre clouted four out and hit the deck, obviously....
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Diego Du charmil was part of my lucky 15 i hit 3 at big prices. The shortest in the betting was the one that got beat in the RSA No More Heroes, took a bad injury and put down unfortunately. Shame it dampens a big lift for me that we lost what I rated as a future star.
 
One I quite like for this is Saint D'Oroux and have backed him at 33/1 EW five places with Paddy and the cashout.

Was pretty highly touted at the start of the season.... and started fav against A Wave of the Sea first time up, only to be beaten out of sight. Ran a better race second time up and got much closer to that rival, then finished fairly close up with Tronadaor last time giving that rival 7lb's. Tronador has obviously gone on to win since, and you'd hope Saint D'Oroux will meet him on much better terms next time.

It seems they think more of him than he has yet shown.
 
Can't Catch Me said:
One I quite like for this is Saint D'Oroux and have backed him at 33/1 EW five places with Paddy and the cashout.

Was pretty highly touted at the start of the season.... and started fav against A Wave of the Sea first time up, only to be beaten out of sight. Ran a better race second time up and got much closer to that rival, then finished fairly close up with Tronadaor last time giving that rival 7lb's. Tronador has obviously gone on to win since, and you'd hope Saint D'Oroux will meet him on much better terms next time.

It seems they think more of him than he has yet shown.
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I put something about him on the main handicap thread a while back. I’m unsure if they’re handicapping him or he’s just crap though. He has an entry in the Spring Juvenile which is very confusing given what he’s shown so far.
 
JackieMoon33 said:
I put something about him on the main handicap thread a while back. I’m unsure if they’re handicapping him or he’s just crap though. He has an entry in the Spring Juvenile which is very confusing given what he’s shown so far.
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Yeah almost posted he may just not be very good Jackie! But think he is worth the risk at that price though.
 
The 12.45 Novice Hurdle at Navan tomorrow has cut up to five runners. How can TRONADOR lose off 10st 2lb tomorrow? (Unless he falls).
 
Curly said:
Any thoughts on a wave of the sea?
O’Brien won this race last year
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Yeah, I've said since Cerberus and A Wave Of The Sea ran against each other the second time they're more likely to be Boodles types than Triumph...


I had tiny free bets on them to both win "any race" with this in mind.....


Was a bit lazy though on my part, I just absolutely love Joseph O'Brien, and it seemed like it could happen more than any solid form reasoning at the time.
 
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