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Supreme Novices Hurdle 2020

Kevloaf said:
Gavin Lynch can NOT be moving markets surely with a youtuube video with 1.5k views?!


I'd put myself odds on to have a better ante post (and therefore festival) than him and that entire show. I haven't watched it yet this year but I'll beat him.:devilish:
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Shows how little money is involved.
The price has definitely moved from his tip.
However, they were leaving the 20's much longer than the rest so were probably on the edge anyway.

I think he's generally very good old Gavin, but doing a show like that he is very limited to what he can do and say, due to sponsors. Who this year are B365 ??
 
He also tipped up Glenloe for the Kim Muir ??
Obviously not quoted yet, but skybet had it in the any race market at 16's,
Now 10's this morning.
I was deliberating and then left it. 16's was not attractive enough for me, but now wish I'd had a nibble as I can see it opening 8-1 when they put the actual markets up for the KM.

Might be worth putting up his selections on here (i usually watch immediately) as if he tips something anyone's been eyeing up (and hesitating on for some reason) then it may mean you miss the price.
Not sure we need to worry about Lydia's:devilish: so much.
 
quevega said:
He also tipped up Glenloe for the Kim Muir ??
Obviously not quoted yet, but skybet had it in the any race market at 16's,
Now 10's this morning.
I was deliberating and then left it. 16's was not attractive enough for me, but now wish I'd had a nibble as I can see it opening 8-1 when they put the actual markets up for the KM.

Might be worth putting up his selections on here (i usually watch immediately) as if he tips something anyone's been eyeing up (and hesitating on for some reason) then it may mean you miss the price.
Not sure we need to worry about Lydia's:devilish: so much.
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I’ve said before I like the way he breaks down races and he’s a gambling mans man but I’ll agree with you and Kev a show with those views shouldn’t move the market like that..... maybe the bookies know something we don’t :confused::highly_amused:

Wouldn’t want to spoil the show for people before they watch it either tbh
 
TheEagleHasLanded said:
I’ve said before I like the way he breaks down races and he’s a gambling mans man but I’ll agree with you and Kev a show with those views shouldn’t move the market like that..... maybe the bookies know something we don’t :confused::highly_amused:

Wouldn’t want to spoil the show for people before they watch it either tbh
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If you think about the views thing properly though.
It is bound to move the markets.
The people watching will only be idiots like us that are interested in antepost markets.
Not sure there will be many casual viewers attracted by the clickbait of Mr Jennings hamster cheeks.
It would probably only take 10-20 bets being made to move the prices.
Very little money whatsoever, and the bookies know that prices moving gets others investing too.
 
Given the money has come for Unexcepted, I thought I'd re-watch his maiden. The opposition is questionable, granted, but didn't he do it well. Plenty of pace. Probably would have won by 10+ lengths if not for being massively eased down.

14's still available, which surprises me, as JP doesn't have many 2 mile looking novice hurdlers, most seem to be destined for further. I wonder what price we'd be looking at if he was in pink and green silks, or is it that Envoi Allen is holding the market up?
 
quevega said:
If you think about the views thing properly though.
It is bound to move the markets.
The people watching will only be idiots like us that are interested in antepost markets.
Not sure there will be many casual viewers attracted by the clickbait of Mr Jennings hamster cheeks.
It would probably only take 10-20 bets being made to move the prices.
Very little money whatsoever, and the bookies know that prices moving gets others investing too.
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Does anyone take DJ seriously? :highly_amused:

I agree with the 10/20 bets but fair to assume they are possibly higher value as 365 have reduced their liability
 
ComplyOrDie said:
Given the money has come for Unexcepted, I thought I'd re-watch his maiden. The opposition is questionable, granted, but didn't he do it well. Plenty of pace. Probably would have won by 10+ lengths if not for being massively eased down.

14's still available, which surprises me, as JP doesn't have many 2 mile looking novice hurdlers, most seem to be destined for further. I wonder what price we'd be looking at if he was in pink and green silks, or is it that Envoi Allen is holding the market up?
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As have I and I agree, jumps nicely
 
My local bookmakers in Northern Ireland had 16s this morning around 10 and went bsck over about 1 and had changed to 11s. Mccleans are usually a step behind everyone else
 
Had a small play on Ribble Valley for this after his win today at 40-1 with Hills. 2 from 2 over hurdles now jumped and travelled lovely and lengthened away for an impressive win. Looked a strong enough race as well with Sir Valentine and Proschema. 5 from 6 in total overall now with his only loss coming at Cheltenham in the bumper won by Master Debonair. That could be viewed as a negative as he was a well beaten 6th but I cant remember Nicky Richards sending many bumper runners to Cheltenham so I'm taking as a positive that he expected better. Being from one of the less fashionable stables may be overlooked in the market as well. Could well be below the required class for this but worth a punt at the prices.
 
The Supreme or Ballymore for lots of horses is a dilemma but the going will decide the fate of when and where and I will only be playing when NRNB arrives after Christmas.
 
UNEXCEPTED for JP is just pure class.

His debut was one of the most professional i've seen from a novice. So quick over his hurdles and he was rapid on that soft ground. Now i know why willie was trying to make Blue Sari a staying type, because he knew UNEXCEPTED is on a different level.

Gavin Lynch creamed his pants and i totally agree with him that he is proper 2 miler.

Although the race was weak, UNEXCEPTED couldn't of been more impressive.

Managed to get the 20s and will back him again once he is delcared for another race.

People think FLY SMART was willie supreme horse, but i think FLY SMART will be Willies Ballymore Horse now
 
hardheld said:
UNEXCEPTED for JP is just pure class.

His debut was one of the most professional i've seen from a novice. So quick over his hurdles and he was rapid on that soft ground. Now i know why willie was trying to make Blue Sari a staying type, because he knew UNEXCEPTED is on a different level.

Gavin Lynch creamed his pants and i totally agree with him that he is proper 2 miler.

Although the race was weak, UNEXCEPTED couldn't of been more impressive.

Managed to get the 20s and will back him again once he is delcared for another race.

People think FLY SMART was willie supreme horse, but i think FLY SMART will be Willies Ballymore Horse now
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Agree with the performance of Unexcepted and time will tell how good the run was when pitched in a more competitive race.

At present don’t agree with the Fly Smart comment and although he has only had the one run in France, Ricci will want a runner in the supreme this year after not having one last year, only have to look at the recent record of the race to see his best novice runs in the supreme. Not that those horses all back that up. Obviously we have to wait and see when Fly Smart runs but his French run has been boosted too many times to mention. He has plenty of novices but FS is one of the ones being talked up for sure.
 
hardheld said:
UNEXCEPTED for JP is just pure class.

His debut was one of the most professional i've seen from a novice. So quick over his hurdles and he was rapid on that soft ground. Now i know why willie was trying to make Blue Sari a staying type, because he knew UNEXCEPTED is on a different level.

Gavin Lynch creamed his pants and i totally agree with him that he is proper 2 miler.

Although the race was weak, UNEXCEPTED couldn't of been more impressive.

Managed to get the 20s and will back him again once he is delcared for another race.

People think FLY SMART was willie supreme horse, but i think FLY SMART will be Willies Ballymore Horse now
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Fly smart is not the only one. Willie has plenty. Time will tell who's the best of the bunch.

Why fly smart would be pushed out in trip when hes a strong traveller and got done at the finish for stamina in his only run over hurdles. I dont understand. But just because hes a 2miler with very good form dosent make him deffinately the best one they have.

Likewise just because excepted got out first and put up a visually impressive display, it dosent mean they dont have better at home sat in there box, and could be more than 1 at that
 
Scooby91 said:
Fly smart is not the only one. Willie has plenty. Time will tell who's the best of the bunch.

Why fly smart would be pushed out in trip when hes a strong traveller and got done at the finish for stamina in his only run over hurdles. I dont understand. But just because hes a 2miler with very good form dosent make him deffinately the best one they have.

Likewise just because excepted got out first and put up a visually impressive display, it dosent mean they dont have better at home sat in there box, and could be more than 1 at that
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I reckon if Willie has one better, it wins the Supreme.
 
Morley Street said:
I reckon if Willie has one better, it wins the Supreme.
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Very early days to be sayng that in my view. He looked very taking indeed, but so did Breaken when starting off. Not saying that was certainly Breaken's form at Punchestown but i'd really want to see another run before thinking he's very very good.
 
Compliment paid to Sporting John today with Eritage cruising to victory.

That said, they changed tactics on Eritage today and clearly he likes going from the front (held up against SJ & co), so hopefully when seen next he'll continue to run from the front so we get a better grasp on his ability.
 
Might be last time I do this, as I prefer to go with B365, so I can duck out at a very small loss.
But I've backed
Son of Camas at 44-1 WH for this race.

Runs in the maiden tomorrow, and is a race that often throws up cheltenham types. And looks a decent maiden again on paper.

This horse was mentioned by me a few weeks ago somewhere on these threads as it won it's bumper really well at this track (the form is still untested) and they also sent it over for the land rover bumper in April and it went off 2-1 favourite (so someone thinks it's decent, but it finished tailed off).

I'm hoping they think it's going well enough again, after it's bumper win, and nicky henderson has tried some decent types in this race in the past. Some have been future stayers but he also ran Buvuer Da'ir for the same owners.

The breeding strongly suggests speed (creachadoir won the Lockinge and was rated 118 on flat), and whilst I prefer NH breds for the supreme generally, I don't mind the flat breds that have never ran on the flat.

It's a bit of a punt to be fair and may well be on the scrapheap this time tomorrow.
 
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