October ‘26 Yankee courtesy of @BuckingTheTrend

[Eggs]

Getting to the point of transition from Flat to NH, maybe a few reports confirming targets and stable tours to help inform the discussion for @BuckingThe Trend. Could even a novice hurdler or Triumph nomination.

Hopefully things starting to get a bit more interesting.

 

[Eggs]

…..hopefully @BuckingThe Trend gives us a steer soon but at the moment, you can actually pick one from each section of the Hills ‘any race’ categories and put them in a Yankee.

That would be a bit different but might not last long as they do tend to stop multiples.

 

[Luke95]

In a relatively thin looking field at this stage, Heart Wood at 66/1 in the Gold Cup makes some appeal. Starting off in the G1 at Down Royal according to Josh Stacey with Kempton possibly after that.

De Bromhead has Kocktail Divin who could step into the Ryanair as 3m has always looked a stretch for him, and having won the Ryanair last year I can see him and connections having a crack at the big one with Heart Wood if competitive over 3m through the season.

Couldn’t see him beating an on song Gaelic Warrior but stranger things have happened. Given he’s an open grade 1 winner at the festival (albeit ended up being a relatively weak one) i’d have him priced more closely to the novices who are yet to race in open company, especially given the 3m novice form didn’t stand out as being top notch.

 

[BuckingThe Trend]

Right then lads and lasses. October is upon us and I’m in the hot seat for the first time. I have a few ideas about the horses I’d like to include but I have a much firmer idea about the horses, or races, I am going to ignore at this moment in time. Current thinking is I am not going to include any novice or juvenile hurdlers as experience has told me year after year that betting on novice or juvenile hurdlers for Cheltenham Festival in October is financial suicide. So out of consideration at this moment in time are the Supreme, Turners, Albert Bartlett, Mares Novice and Triumph. I’ll leave those races to the Yankee owners later in the season and NRNB. I am of course open to persuasion if anyone feels strongly about a particular horse in one of those races or one of them screams out at us after a performance on the track.

At this point in time I am also going to ignore three of the Championship races - Champion Hurdle, Champion Chase and Gold Cup. Why you ask. In my mind all three have very strong and short priced favourites and I feel betting on them at this stage of the season is poor value whilst betting on any other horse in those three races will be based on Lossiemouth, Il Etait Temps and Gaelic Warrior not turning up. I think Lossiemouth and Gaelic Warrior are bombproof whereas Kargese and Kopek Des Bordes are capable of challenging Il Etait Temps but Kopek would need to jump a perfect round and I don’t trust him to do that and Kargese could divert to the Mares Chase. I hope she doesn’t.

So with the above exclusions in mind I am going to focus my thinking to try to find four winners from the Arkle, BANC, Ryanair, Mares Hurdle, Stayers and Mares Chase. So please join the chat and give me your views on my strategy plus any horses you think I should be considering. Do you think I have limited options too much or do you like the focus ? Of course I am fully open to suggestions for horses in the races I have suggested I will exclude at this stage. I am easily led and can be persuaded with sound rational thinking and particularly any inside information !

Initial thoughts on the Arkle are :

Arkle : Why is Sober Glory 8/1 and Old Park Star 100/30 after they were so close in the Supreme when Sober Glory stumbled after the last. Does this make Sober Glory better value for money. I am looking forward to see if Kabral Du Mathan can jump a fence because I think he has the speed for 2m. King Rasko Grey, Act of Innocence and He’s On Fire all look more likely to go BANC to me at this point in time. I might be wrong of course but we’ve got 31 days to hopefully gather more data. At the moment the top three in the betting look most likely. Anyone know if there are plans for Narciso Has to go over fences ? He could be an interesting option. Also Kawaboomga at 66/1 could be interesting if he is coming back from injury to go over fences.

Please don’t hold back on your thinking. I am open to criticism and bright ideas.

 

[Eggs]

….very clear steer @BuckingThe Trend

 

[Yosser]

Right then lads and lasses. October is upon us and I’m in the hot seat for the first time. I have a few ideas about the horses I’d like to include but I have a much firmer idea about the horses, or races, I am going to ignore at this moment in time. Current thinking is I am not going to include any novice or juvenile hurdlers as experience has told me year after year that betting on novice or juvenile hurdlers for Cheltenham Festival in October is financial suicide. So out of consideration at this moment in time are the Supreme, Turners, Albert Bartlett, Mares Novice and Triumph. I’ll leave those races to the Yankee owners later in the season and NRNB. I am of course open to persuasion if anyone feels strongly about a particular horse in one of those races or one of them screams out at us after a performance on the track.

At this point in time I am also going to ignore three of the Championship races - Champion Hurdle, Champion Chase and Gold Cup. Why you ask. In my mind all three have very strong and short priced favourites and I feel betting on them at this stage of the season is poor value whilst betting on any other horse in those three races will be based on Lossiemouth, Il Etait Temps and Gaelic Warrior not turning up. I think Lossiemouth and Gaelic Warrior are bombproof whereas Kargese and Kopek Des Bordes are capable of challenging Il Etait Temps but Kopek would need to jump a perfect round and I don’t trust him to do that and Kargese could divert to the Mares Chase. I hope she doesn’t.

So with the above exclusions in mind I am going to focus my thinking to try to find four winners from the Arkle, BANC, Ryanair, Mares Hurdle, Stayers and Mares Chase. So please join the chat and give me your views on my strategy plus any horses you think I should be considering. Do you think I have limited options too much or do you like the focus ? Of course I am fully open to suggestions for horses in the races I have suggested I will exclude at this stage. I am easily led and can be persuaded with sound rational thinking and particularly any inside information !

Initial thoughts on the Arkle are :

Arkle : Why is Sober Glory 8/1 and Old Park Star 100/30 after they were so close in the Supreme when Sober Glory stumbled after the last. Does this make Sober Glory better value for money. I am looking forward to see if Kabral Du Mathan can jump a fence because I think he has the speed for 2m. King Rasko Grey, Act of Innocence and He’s On Fire all look more likely to go BANC to me at this point in time. I might be wrong of course but we’ve got 31 days to hopefully gather more data. At the moment the top three in the betting look most likely. Anyone know if there are plans for Narciso Has to go over fences ? He could be an interesting option. Also Kawaboomga at 66/1 could be interesting if he is coming back from injury to go over fences.

Please don’t hold back on your thinking. I am open to criticism and bright ideas.

On Narciso Has. I'm struggling with him and JP's team around those markets at the minute. I have no idea how the exchanges work but there has been consistent blue for Narciso Has for the Champion Hurdle the past few days but I am aware that pennies can cause this even with my limited knowledge of it all. I think he would be very exciting there to be honest but they do have Saratoga as an almost guaranteed aim at the race. Kawaboomga and Mighty Park look almost certain to go out in trip (IMO) so that would only really leave JP with Proactif for the Arkle if Narciso went down the CH route. I'm really struggling to work the scenarios out. I think Narciso would be a great horse to follow over fences with all the allowances up until the Arkle but they might think he has unfinished business over timber (which he probably does to be fair) and only being 5 years old, there is no rush. A proper conundrum but we know JP will have horses in every race so work that one out

 

[Prestbury]

On Narciso Has. I'm struggling with him and JP's team around those markets at the minute. I have no idea how the exchanges work but there has been consistent blue for Narciso Has for the Champion Hurdle the past few days but I am aware that pennies can cause this even with my limited knowledge of it all. I think he would be very exciting there to be honest but they do have Saratoga as an almost guaranteed aim at the race. Kawaboomga and Mighty Park look almost certain to go out in trip (IMO) so that would only really leave JP with Proactif for the Arkle if Narciso went down the CH route. I'm really struggling to work the scenarios out. I think Narciso would be a great horse to follow over fences with all the allowances up until the Arkle but they might think he has unfinished business over timber (which he probably does to be fair) and only being 5 years old, there is no rush. A proper conundrum but we know JP will have horses in every race so work that one out

Very small beer on the Exchange - wouldn't read too much into it. £675 has been bet on him in total and all but £50 of this has been bet at a price in the 20s. Over 85% has been bet at a price between 21.0 and 25.0 and there's still money to back him in this range. He's still shorter for the Arkle where his recent price (last 3 months) has remained in the 15.0 to 20.0 range. First move likely to come with a Willie comment in a stable tour (or not, knowing Willie!).

 

[Yosser]

Very small beer on the Exchange - wouldn't read too much into it. £675 has been bet on him in total and all but £50 of this has been bet at a price in the 20s. Over 85% has been bet at a price between 21.0 and 25.0 and there's still money to back him in this range. He's still shorter for the Arkle where his recent price (last 3 months) has remained in the 15.0 to 20.0 range. First move likely to come with a Willie comment in a stable tour (or not, knowing Willie!).

Thanks for confirming my understanding of it Prestbury. That was just algebra

Yeah, the stable tour is the one. I have been trying to get ahead. I might just bite the bullet and attempt a roll up on him for both races. The outlay is small but the rewards are big. He is 10/1 in the A/R market in Hills. Probably the only snipped of potential value in there. I think when hs destination is confirmed, that is about what he will be cut to so the 16s in either race (available to me) might be worth attempting. Better get looking in the non leagues

 

[BuckingThe Trend]

Thanks for confirming my understanding of it Prestbury. That was just algebra

Yeah, the stable tour is the one. I have been trying to get ahead. I might just bite the bullet and attempt a roll up on him for both races. The outlay is small but the rewards are big. He is 10/1 in the A/R market in Hills. Probably the only snipped of potential value in there. I think when hs destination is confirmed, that is about what he will be cut to so the 16s in either race (available to me) might be worth attempting. Better get looking in the non leagues

Thanks guys. Good early points. Feels like we are all agreed Narciso Has is a very real option for the Arkle if he goes Chasing. I am going to be honest I don't fancy him for the Champion Hurdle. Hopefully the stable tours might give us a better insight.

 

[Guinness Village]

I feel, without any evidence, that NH would be willies best arkle shot. However, I have no knowledge of his wellbeing or where they might send him. However if lossie comes back purring, then perhaps arkle for him

 

[Prestbury]

Thanks for confirming my understanding of it Prestbury. That was just algebra

Yeah, the stable tour is the one. I have been trying to get ahead. I might just bite the bullet and attempt a roll up on him for both races. The outlay is small but the rewards are big. He is 10/1 in the A/R market in Hills. Probably the only snipped of potential value in there. I think when hs destination is confirmed, that is about what he will be cut to so the 16s in either race (available to me) might be worth attempting. Better get looking in the non leagues

The best price for NH for the Arkle is 16/1 and for the Champion Hurdle is 25/1. This gives combined odds of about 9.3/1 for either race. So 10/1 a/r is better value than best prices for the individual events (and you get all the other possible races thrown in for good measure).

 

[Eggs]

The best price for NH for the Arkle is 16/1 and for the Champion Hurdle is 25/1. This gives combined odds of about 9.3/1 for either race. So 10/1 a/r is better value than best prices for the individual events (and you get all the other possible races thrown in for good measure).

….just to add, Multiples are still available in Hills a/r lists as long as you select from different categories.

Currently you can also do an a/r selection with multiples from the antepost list, meaning we could include NH a/r with selections from races @BuckingThe Trend has highlighted.

 

[BuckingThe Trend]

All. I know it is traditional to wait until the last day of the month but I am ready to go with the October Yankee selections. I don't see much happening on the track between now and the end of the month to change my thinking so if people are ok I am happy to call it now. Let me know thoughts.

 

[Eggs]

All. I know it is traditional to wait until the last day of the month but I am ready to go with the October Yankee selections. I don't see much happening on the track between now and the end of the month to change my thinking so if people are ok I am happy to call it now. Let me know thoughts.

….ha, ha, it’s your gig so if that’s what you want it’s ok with me. There’s still a discussion to have in the September Yankee thread so folk can always add their twopenneth worth in there.

 

[BuckingThe Trend]

OK. Here we go. In for a penny in for a pound and sticking to my original plan to focus my thinking to try to find four winners from the Arkle, BANC, Ryanair, Mares Hurdle, Stayers and Mares Chase.

My first choice is He's On Fire in the BANC. This is my wild card purely because his target is not certain. It was a toss up between this and Narciso Has in the Arkle or Jade De Grugy in the Mares Chase as my wild card but I feel there is more of a case for He's On Fire to run in the BANC than NH to run in the Arkle or JDG to run in the Mares Chase. He's On Fire was a very impressive winner in a 2m4 G2 at Fairyhouse in April and he certainly looks to me like he will just get better the further he goes so I have opted for the BANC over the Arkle option for him. The owners also have Magnifico Conti who is more likely to run in the Arkle.

Second choice is Koktail Divin in the Ryanair. 3m proved a step too far in the BANC in March but he looked a natural 2m4 horse when winning the G1 Manifesto Hurdle at Aintree. Looks like he could be the new kid on the block in this division.

Third choice is Le Frimeur in the Stayers. 4/4 over hurdles including the G1 at Punchestown Festival where he was mighty impressive. Again the new kid on the block. Others seriously considered were Zeus Power but opted not to include him as previous FJ Yankee's have included him and an old favourite Jasmin De Vaux who I am reluctant to select due to the fact he is coming back from a year out injured.

Final choice is Selma De Vary in the Mares Hurdle. She ran really well in 4 x G1's as a Juvenile between February and May which is virtually unheard of for a 4 year old mare and finally won her G1 in Auteuil. Almost certain to go here due to being in same ownership as Lossiemouth who surely will be defending her Champion Hurdle title.

Thats me done. My October FJ Yankee is :

He's On Fire (BANC) @ 10/1
Koktail Divin (Ryanair) @ 16/1
Le Frimeur (Stayers) @ 16/1
Selma De Vary (Mares Hurdle) @ 10/1
4-Fold @ 34968/1 with bet365

 

[Eggs]

….very positive @BuckingThe Trend using your privilege to post the selections early. I’m on.

Main Yankee thread updated

Remember, the OJA discussion Yankee is still active in Members Section, pop in there with any thoughts you have.

 

[Guinness Village]

I’ve done at hills.
Also done ricci Yankee. Love a bit of a theme

He’s on fire BANC
Selma de vary mares hurdle
Chic me triumph
Witches familiar mares novice hurdle

 

[BuckingThe Trend]

I like your selections and then add Lossiemouth and Gaelic Warrior for A Ricci extravaganza.................