Grand National Dosage

[mayo]

I am going to have a go at this.

Might be a waste of time but got an hour to kill.

Google found me Lucky Vane who kindly had the Dosage for the winner and runners up from 2005-2014:

2014 Pineau De Re DP = 0-0-1-1-0 (2) DI = 0.33 CD = -0.50 (Dosage Weak)
Balthazar King DP = 4-0-11-5-2 (22) DI = 0.76 CD = -0.05 (Dosage Strong)

2013 Auroras Encore DP = 5-0-10-5-4 (24) DI = 0.71 CD = -0.13 (Dosage Strong )
Cappa Bleu DP = 0-1-7-0-0 (8) DI = 1.29 CD = 0.13 (Dosage weak)

2012 Neptune Collonges DP = 0-0-0-2-0 (2) DI = 0.00 CD = -1.00 (Dosage weak)
Sunnyhillboy DP = 3-0-7-4-0 (14) DI = 0.87 CD = 0.14

2011 Ballabriggs DP = 1-1-2-4-2 (10) DI = 0.43 CD = -0.50 (PATB)
Oscar Time DP = 4-0-6-10-2 (22) DI = 0.47 CD = -0.27 (Dosage Strong )

2010 Don’t Push It DP = 6-5-12-4-1 (28) DI = 1.55 CD = 0.39 (Dosage Strong & PATB )
Black Apalachi DP = 2-0-8-4-0 (14) DI = 0.75 CD = 0.00

2009 Mon Mome DP = 1-1-2-0-0 (4) DI = 3.00 CD = 0.75 (Dosage weak )
Comply or Die DP = 2-0-6-4-0 (12) DI = 0.71 CD = 0.00

2008 Comply or Die DP = 2-0-6-4-0 (12) DI = 0.71 CD = 0.00
King Johns Castle DP = 3-6-4-0-1 (14) DI = 3.67 CD = 0.71

2007 Silver Birch DP = 2-0-4-8-6 (20) DI = 0.25 CD = -0.80 (Dosage strong )
McKelvey DP = 1-1-0-4-0 (6) DI = 0.50 CD = -0.17 (Dosage weak)

2006 Numbersixvalverde DP = 2-0-0-6-2 (10) DI = 0.25 CD = -0.60
Hedgehunter DP = 8-3-8-2-7 (28) DI = 1.15 CD = 0.11 (Dosage Strong & PATB)

2005 Hedgehunter DP = 8-3-8-2-7 (28) DI = 1.15 CD = 0.11 (Dosage Strong & PATB)
Royal Auclair DP = 4-4-11-7-2 (28) DI = 0.93 CD = 0.04 (Dosage Strong & PATB)

Key :-
Dosage Weak refers to any whose Dosage Profile (DP) is 8 or less.
Dosage Strong refers to any whose Dosage Profile (DP) is 20 or more
PATB means Points Across The Board, meaning those who have points in all 5 of the categories making up the Dosage Profile.

 

[mayo]

Ben Aiken in 2012 had these

Dosage Trends

(From the last 15 renewals – 2 winners had less than 8 points and are not included in Analysis)

12 of the last 13 had a DI of 1.15 or below

11 or the last 13 had a CD of 0.11 or below

so updating for last three renewals only Auroras encore comes into reckoning as 2/3 were Dosage weak ( should that put me off )

2013 Auroras Encore DP = 5-0-10-5-4 (24) DI = 0.71 CD = -0.13 (Dosage Strong )

13 of the last 14 had a DI of 1.15 or below

12 or the last 14 had a CD of 0.11 or below

 

[mayo]

so taking the horses at top of market lots of qualifers ...and almost tempted to go the dosageweak route

	Odds	Dosage Profile	DP	DI	CD
Shutthefrontdoor	8	5-4-7-4-0	20	1.67	0.5
Rocky Creek	10	3-1-8-8-0	19	0.67	-0.05
Balthazar King	12	4-0-11-5-2	22	0.76	-0.05
The Druids Nephew	12	6-1-9-8-0	24	0.92	0.21
Cause Of Causes	20	6-2-30-5-1	44	1.1	0.16
Godsmejudge	20	4-1-12-0-7	24	0.85	-0.21
Spring Heeled	20	2-1-7-4-0	14	0.87	0.07
Soll	22	1-3-2-4-4	14	0.56	-0.5
Unioniste	22	0-0-1-1-0	2	0.33	-0.5
Alvarado	20	4-0-10-0-0	14	1.8	0.57
Pineau De Re	20	0-0-1-1-0	2	0.33	-0.5
Many Clouds	25	2-1-15-4-0	22	0.91	-0.05
Merry King	25	2-0-6-4-0	12	0.71	0
Al Co	25	0-0-4-0-0	4	1	0
Royale Knight	25	5-1-10-6-0	22	1	0.23
Saint Are	33	0-0-6-8-2	16	0.23	-0.75
Monbeg Dude	33	5-0-14-2-1	22	1.2	0.27
Goonyella	25	0-1-1-6-2	10	0.18	-0.9
Sam Winner	25	7-0-13-4-0	24	1.29	0.42
The Package	25	2-0-11-4-5	22	0.52	-0.45
First Lieutenant	33	1-1-2-4-2	10	0.43	-0.5
Night In Milan	40	4-2-7-4-1	18	1.12	0.22
Chance Du Roy	40	1-0-7-4-0	12	0.6	-0.17
Ballycasey	33	1-2-1-4-4	12	0.41	-0.67

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[Morning Glory]

If you added a weight filter - say old vics 11st cut off you have a manageable shortlist there Mayo.