Planning on going tmw so any selections would be appreciated, Chester cup looks a rite headache with all the gabrials running and draw trends. But can't ignore all the Dr koukash runners. I've had a saviour on shu lewis ew drawn no1 for starters.
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Chester races 1st day tips anybody.....!
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The stars on backing horses drawn 1-5 in Chester cup are hard to fathom given the race length but must be something to it ! Horses mixing jumps and flats do Ok too. I'd be guessing but might try Zafayan based on trends.
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The Betway Chester Cup, first run in 1824, takes place on Wednesday 6th May and is the highlight of the Chester Festival, which takes place every year in early May. It is run a class 2 Heritage Handicap, run over 2 miles, 2 furlongs and 147 yards and in recent years horses that have been hurdling over the winter have done well.
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</tbody>
Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:
Age (Win-Place-Runners)
4yo: 1-8-34
5yo: 3-6-47
6yo: 4-10-42
7yo: 2-3-23
8yo+: 0-3-22
Ages of winners has been fairly well spread out though there has been no winner aged older than 7 in last 20 years.
The only 4yo winner in past 10 years have won its maiden as a 3yo at this meeting the previous year.
Weight (Win-Place-Runners)
Horses carrying 9-7 or more: 0-4-14
Horses carrying 9-0 to 9-6: 6-13-58
Horses carrying 8-7 to 8-13: 3-8-62
Horses carrying 8-0 to 8-6: 1-4-30
Horses carrying 7-13 or below: 0-1-4
Higher weights are favoured:
Horses carrying 8-11 or more: 9-20-100
Horses carrying 8-10 or less: 1-10-68
Top weight: 050P02202040 (0-4-12)
Horses carrying a penalty: 3P54732 (0-4-7)
Official Ratings
Horses rated 104 or higher: 0-4-12
Horses rated 90 to 103: 9-18-115
Horses rated 89 or lower: 1-8-41
9 of 10 winners of the race were officially rated 90 to 103 though they represented 68.5% of the total runners.
Recent/Past Form
8 of 10 winners won over 2M+ (1 exception had won over 1M 6F & had only 1 run over 2M+, other had won over 1M 4F and not run over 2M+)
7 of 10 winners had won at class 2 or higher (3 exceptions placed in class 2)
7 of 10 winners ran won a race worth 10K+ (3 exceptions all placed in a race worth 25K+)
5 of 10 winners had their last run in April
9 of 10 winners were having their first flat start of the season
8 of 10 winners (last 6) had previously run in 4 to 10 flat handicaps
7 of 10 winners (last 6) had won no more than 2 handicaps
5 of 10 winners finished in first 4 in a race at Chester (4 of 5 exceptions having first course start)
5 of 10 winners had 3 or 4 hurdles starts that calendar year
Other races
Previous season's winner (Suegioo): 100020 (1-1-6)
Placed in previous year: 900019009063020 (1-2-15)
Northumberland Plate winner (Angel Gabriel): 7100 (1-0-4)
Record of horses placed in first 4 in previous Northumberland Plate: 1133710083 (3-3-10)
Record of horses placed in first 5 in Cesarewitch: 3207901098530 (1-3-13)
At The Races Sky 415 Handicap winner (Trip To Paris): 357032 (0-3-6)
John Smith's Stayers' Handicap winner (Gabrial's King): 0 (0-0-1)
Musselburgh Gold Cup winner (Lady Kashaan): 0 (0-0-1)
Fine Equity Stakes winner (Edge Of Sanity): 570 (0-0-3)
3 of 10 winners had been placed in previous Northumberland Plate, finishing 331
2 of 10 winners (2 of last 3) won the Shergar Cup Stayers H'cap
2 of 10 winners (2 of last 3) ran in Old Borough Cup, finishing 00
2 of 10 winners ran in the previous season's Cesarewitch, finishing 02
2 of 10 winners ran in the previous season's Ebor, finishing 00
2 of 10 winners ran in the previous season's Goodwood Cup, finishing 88
2 of 10 winners ran in the previous season's Mallard Stakes, finishing 58
3 of 10 winners ran over hurdles at the Aintree Festival last time out
3 of 10 winners ran in previous year's Chester Cup, finishing 130
Trainers
Richard Fahey (2-5-11) has a fine record, having filled one of the places in 6 of the last 9 years, including the winner in 2007, the 1-2 in 2013 & runner-up last year. He had no representative in 2012.
Marco Botti (1-0-1) won this with Suiegoo last year.
Ian Williams (1-0-4) won this in 2008.
Dermot Weld (0-1-2), Andrew Balding (0-1-3), Brian Ellison (0-1-3) and Ed Dunlop (0-1-4) have each saddled 1 placed finisher.
Draw
Horses drawn 1 to 8: 6-17-80
Horses drawn 9 or higher: 4-13-88
Horses drawn 8 or below are slightly favoured but, with the length of the race, Chester’s draw bias does not have quite the same effect in this as it does in the sprints.
Tactics
6 of 10 winners raced prominently
3 of 10 winners raced in midfield
1 of 10 winners was held up
Horses that raced close to the pace are favoured, mainly due to the layout of the track. Bulwark was the only horse in the last ten years to be held up further back than midfield to win and 3 of 4 winners that weren’t in the front rank throughout were drawn in a double-figure stall.
Price
No strong trends on the prices, the last 6 winners were sent off at odds of between 11/2 to 12/1 however the previous 4 winners were priced between 16/1 & 33/1.
Favourites (1-3-12) have won the race twice in the past decade, giving a £1 level stakes loss of £2.00.
Summary:
Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
- Aged 5 to 7 (or a 4yo that won at 2014 Chester meeting)
- Carrying 8-11 to 9-6
- Officially rated 90 to 103
- Won over 2M+
- Won a class 2 or higher
- Run in 4 to 10 flat handicaps
- Having first flat start this year
- Ran over hurdles in 2015
- Previous won or placed at Chester (or having first run here)
- Previously finished in first 6 in a Chester Cup
- Finished in first 4 in 2014 Northumberland Plate and/or Shergar Stayers Cup
- Ran in 2014 Ebor, Old Borough Cup and/or Cesarewitch Handicap
- Tends to race prominently
- Trained by Richard Fahey
| YEAR | HORSE | A/G | WGT | LTO | FORM | TRAINER | JOCKEY | RAN | OR | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2014 | Suegioo (Fr) | 5g | 9-4 | 11 | 84252-3 | M Botti | R L Moore | 17 | 93 | 10/1 |
| 2013 | Address Unknown | 6g | 9-0 | 242 | 082130- | R A Fahey | J P Spencer | 17 | 97 | 12/1 |
| 2012 | Ile De Re (Fr) | 6g | 8-11 | 60 | 61407U- | D McCain Jnr | Jim Crowley | 16 | 93 | 10/1 |
| 2011 | Overturn (Ire) | 7g | 8-13 | 18 | 7221/10- | D McCain Jnr | E Ahern | 17 | 99 | 11/2 (2f) |
| 2010 | Mamlook (Ire) (D) | 6g | 8-12 | 27 | 23/2- | D Pipe | R Hughes | 17 | 96 | 7/1 (f) |
| 2009 | Daraahem (Ire) (C) | 4g | 9-0 | 200 | 310- | B W Hills | R Hills | 16 | 99 | 7/1 (2f) |
| 2008 | Bulwark (Ire) | 6g | 9-4 | 179 | 42P | Ian Williams | Jim Crowley | 17 | 95 | 33/1 |
| 2007 | Greenwich Meantime | 7g | 9-2 | 240 | 315- | R A Fahey | P Hanagan | 17 | 93 | 14/1 |
| 2006 | Admiral (Ire) | 5g | 8-1 | 32 | 000 | T J Pitt | J F Egan | 17 | 85 | 28/1 |
| 2005 | Anak Pekan (CD) | 5g | 9-6 | 200 | 877- | M A Jarvis | P Robinson | 17 | 103 | 16/1 |
| 2004 | Anak Pekan | 4g | 8-2 | 25 | 22-1 | M A Jarvis | P Robinson | 17 | 90 | 2/1 (f) |
<tbody>
</tbody>
Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:
Age (Win-Place-Runners)
4yo: 1-8-34
5yo: 3-6-47
6yo: 4-10-42
7yo: 2-3-23
8yo+: 0-3-22
Ages of winners has been fairly well spread out though there has been no winner aged older than 7 in last 20 years.
The only 4yo winner in past 10 years have won its maiden as a 3yo at this meeting the previous year.
Weight (Win-Place-Runners)
Horses carrying 9-7 or more: 0-4-14
Horses carrying 9-0 to 9-6: 6-13-58
Horses carrying 8-7 to 8-13: 3-8-62
Horses carrying 8-0 to 8-6: 1-4-30
Horses carrying 7-13 or below: 0-1-4
Higher weights are favoured:
Horses carrying 8-11 or more: 9-20-100
Horses carrying 8-10 or less: 1-10-68
Top weight: 050P02202040 (0-4-12)
Horses carrying a penalty: 3P54732 (0-4-7)
Official Ratings
Horses rated 104 or higher: 0-4-12
Horses rated 90 to 103: 9-18-115
Horses rated 89 or lower: 1-8-41
9 of 10 winners of the race were officially rated 90 to 103 though they represented 68.5% of the total runners.
Recent/Past Form
8 of 10 winners won over 2M+ (1 exception had won over 1M 6F & had only 1 run over 2M+, other had won over 1M 4F and not run over 2M+)
7 of 10 winners had won at class 2 or higher (3 exceptions placed in class 2)
7 of 10 winners ran won a race worth 10K+ (3 exceptions all placed in a race worth 25K+)
5 of 10 winners had their last run in April
9 of 10 winners were having their first flat start of the season
8 of 10 winners (last 6) had previously run in 4 to 10 flat handicaps
7 of 10 winners (last 6) had won no more than 2 handicaps
5 of 10 winners finished in first 4 in a race at Chester (4 of 5 exceptions having first course start)
5 of 10 winners had 3 or 4 hurdles starts that calendar year
Other races
Previous season's winner (Suegioo): 100020 (1-1-6)
Placed in previous year: 900019009063020 (1-2-15)
Northumberland Plate winner (Angel Gabriel): 7100 (1-0-4)
Record of horses placed in first 4 in previous Northumberland Plate: 1133710083 (3-3-10)
Record of horses placed in first 5 in Cesarewitch: 3207901098530 (1-3-13)
At The Races Sky 415 Handicap winner (Trip To Paris): 357032 (0-3-6)
John Smith's Stayers' Handicap winner (Gabrial's King): 0 (0-0-1)
Musselburgh Gold Cup winner (Lady Kashaan): 0 (0-0-1)
Fine Equity Stakes winner (Edge Of Sanity): 570 (0-0-3)
3 of 10 winners had been placed in previous Northumberland Plate, finishing 331
2 of 10 winners (2 of last 3) won the Shergar Cup Stayers H'cap
2 of 10 winners (2 of last 3) ran in Old Borough Cup, finishing 00
2 of 10 winners ran in the previous season's Cesarewitch, finishing 02
2 of 10 winners ran in the previous season's Ebor, finishing 00
2 of 10 winners ran in the previous season's Goodwood Cup, finishing 88
2 of 10 winners ran in the previous season's Mallard Stakes, finishing 58
3 of 10 winners ran over hurdles at the Aintree Festival last time out
3 of 10 winners ran in previous year's Chester Cup, finishing 130
Trainers
Richard Fahey (2-5-11) has a fine record, having filled one of the places in 6 of the last 9 years, including the winner in 2007, the 1-2 in 2013 & runner-up last year. He had no representative in 2012.
Marco Botti (1-0-1) won this with Suiegoo last year.
Ian Williams (1-0-4) won this in 2008.
Dermot Weld (0-1-2), Andrew Balding (0-1-3), Brian Ellison (0-1-3) and Ed Dunlop (0-1-4) have each saddled 1 placed finisher.
Draw
Horses drawn 1 to 8: 6-17-80
Horses drawn 9 or higher: 4-13-88
Horses drawn 8 or below are slightly favoured but, with the length of the race, Chester’s draw bias does not have quite the same effect in this as it does in the sprints.
Tactics
6 of 10 winners raced prominently
3 of 10 winners raced in midfield
1 of 10 winners was held up
Horses that raced close to the pace are favoured, mainly due to the layout of the track. Bulwark was the only horse in the last ten years to be held up further back than midfield to win and 3 of 4 winners that weren’t in the front rank throughout were drawn in a double-figure stall.
Price
No strong trends on the prices, the last 6 winners were sent off at odds of between 11/2 to 12/1 however the previous 4 winners were priced between 16/1 & 33/1.
Favourites (1-3-12) have won the race twice in the past decade, giving a £1 level stakes loss of £2.00.
Summary:
Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
- Aged 5 to 7 (or a 4yo that won at 2014 Chester meeting)
- Carrying 8-11 to 9-6
- Officially rated 90 to 103
- Won over 2M+
- Won a class 2 or higher
- Run in 4 to 10 flat handicaps
- Having first flat start this year
- Ran over hurdles in 2015
- Previous won or placed at Chester (or having first run here)
- Previously finished in first 6 in a Chester Cup
- Finished in first 4 in 2014 Northumberland Plate and/or Shergar Stayers Cup
- Ran in 2014 Ebor, Old Borough Cup and/or Cesarewitch Handicap
- Tends to race prominently
- Trained by Richard Fahey
mayo
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dazzler has it sussed.
The long version of "draw is underestimated in chester cup " is here https://blog.betway.com/horse-racin...effect-of-the-draw-on-the-betway-chester-cup/
Faugheen_Machine
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I'm really keen on the chance of Gabriels King. He travelled really well at Ripon lto and had severe traffic problems in the last 3f. He's drawn well, goes well at the track (0 from 8 doesn't tell the whole story) and is having only his second start for Richard Fahey. I took the 25/1 a week or so ago and backed him again this morning at 8/1.
Oh and also doubled him with Douvan for the Arkle
Oh and also doubled him with Douvan for the Arkle
Day 2 selections....?
Cannock chase very popular horse to follow for the season?
I think I will look at tom dascombe runners today , off the mark yesterday!
Cannock chase very popular horse to follow for the season?
I think I will look at tom dascombe runners today , off the mark yesterday!
MrMcGoldrick
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MrMcGoldrick
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And that's why I don't care for the meeting, the last horse I would have selected would have been the one ridden by Spencer, but that always applies. This is a time for looking out for future winners for me so I think I'll stick to the summer jumpers for now, plus adding to my Cheltenham AP bets, unless something stands out.
My tom dascombe plan failed miserably.....! Maybe day 3
I like Navajo chief in the 1st tmw, I always bk this horse first time out, i will
Have an ew punt on him at 11-1.
I like Navajo chief in the 1st tmw, I always bk this horse first time out, i will
Have an ew punt on him at 11-1.