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Cheltenham Festival Roll-Ups

We go again.

Not everyone's cup of tea but Finland will win Eurovision and is just odds against for now. Has everything you need to win these days. Basically, a quality song that will appeal to both the voting public and each nations judges. Already proved popular in the polls which are a great guide. I'll be shocked if they don't win.
 
Runragged said:
We go again.

Not everyone's cup of tea but Finland will win Eurovision and is just odds against for now. Has everything you need to win these days. Basically, a quality song that will appeal to both the voting public and each nations judges. Already proved popular in the polls which are a great guide. I'll be shocked if they don't win.
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Where's @Kevloaf , he's a Eurovision guru.
I took a quick look at the betting and thought Israel 16/1 has to be too short given their current political position, might mean there'll be some value for the not not finish top 8/10/12 etc...

Edit - I see Israel are now a general 10/1
 
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Trying not to let my political opinions show through, Israel are a ludicrously big price. They showed last year they don't see this as a contest but a propaganda exercise and will throw everything at it (last year they'd somehow managed to circumvent the filters and run ads to vote for them on the live youtube feed, they were running ads in Times Square), the biggest anti Israel sentiment countries are boycotting, and viewership for the semis across Europe was down between 15-40% - you'd have to say the stage is set for their soft power coup and winning (and good luck hosting it next year)
 
robith said:
Trying not to let my political opinions show through, Israel are a ludicrously big price. They showed last year they don't see this as a contest but a propaganda exercise and will throw everything at it (last year they'd somehow managed to circumvent the filters and run ads to vote for them on the live youtube feed, they were running ads in Times Square), the biggest anti Israel sentiment countries are boycotting, and viewership for the semis across Europe was down between 15-40% - you'd have to say the stage is set for their soft power coup and winning (and good luck hosting it next year)
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Interesting, I wasn't aware of the propaganda stuff.
I haven't watched a Eurovision performance since Cheryl Baker had her skirt ripped off so I'm far from a judge on the event, but the voting has always been dominated by politics hasn't it ? And if that's still the case you'd have to think there'll be enough anti-Israel feeling to stop them going well.
I'll just play under points for the UK's horror effort.
Best of luck...
 
robith said:
Trying not to let my political opinions show through, Israel are a ludicrously big price. They showed last year they don't see this as a contest but a propaganda exercise and will throw everything at it (last year they'd somehow managed to circumvent the filters and run ads to vote for them on the live youtube feed, they were running ads in Times Square), the biggest anti Israel sentiment countries are boycotting, and viewership for the semis across Europe was down between 15-40% - you'd have to say the stage is set for their soft power coup and winning (and good luck hosting it next year)
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With the split between televoting and jury being equal then it is very hard to win based on appeasing just one split. Putting this into context, Israel are a best price 10/11 to win the televote, but 150/1 for the jury vote. The song is ok, quite generic and easy to forget. Compare this with Finland who are generally 2nd favs to win the jury vote (Behind Australia who have Delta Goodrum performing for those of you old enough to remember) and 3rd favs for the televote. You need to tick both boxes.

Last year Sweden were odds on favs to win and their novelty act was popular in the televote, with the 3rd most points (Behind the political Israel and the standout novelty act of Espresso Macchiato of Estonia), but only 6th on the jury votes. Israel easily won the televote but was only 14th amongst the jury votes. It was enough still to finish 2nd and potentially could do so again considering you also have countries boycotting.
 
Istabraq said:
Interesting, I wasn't aware of the propaganda stuff.
I haven't watched a Eurovision performance since Cheryl Baker had her skirt ripped off so I'm far from a judge on the event, but the voting has always been dominated by politics hasn't it ? And if that's still the case you'd have to think there'll be enough anti-Israel feeling to stop them going well.
I'll just play under points for the UK's horror effort.
Best of luck...
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Eurovision is more cultural than political. People vote for the music they are accustomed to. Classic one always brought up is Greece and Cyprus always giving each other 12 points in the televote. However, those artists will be well known and respected in both countries and in a style they are familiar with. You will also have a mix of people that are from one country but live in the other. We see that with the UK public vote. We gave 12pts to Israel, but Poland got 10 and Lithuania 8pts despite finishing 14th and 16th respective. Taking this further, in the last 5 years we have given an average of 9 points to Lithuania and 9.33pts for Poland having failed to qualify twice.

Should add you do have political aspects (Such as Israel this year and last year) but in most normal years, what people believe to be political often isn't.
 
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Runragged said:
Eurovision is more cultural than political. People vote for the music they are accustomed to. Classic one always brought up is Greece and Cyprus always giving each other 12 points in the televote. However, those artists will be well known and respected in both countries and in a style they are familiar with. You will also have a mix of people that are from one country but live in the other. We see that with the UK public vote. We gave 12pts to Israel, but Poland got 10 and Lithuania 8pts despite finishing 14th and 16th respective. Taking this further, in the last 5 years we have given an average of 9 points to Lithuania and 9.33pts for Poland having failed to qualify twice.

Should add you do have political aspects (Such as Israel this year and last year) but in most normal years, what people believe to be political often isn't.
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Most of the time, 100% this
 
I’m in Australia ew at 11/1, sure to go well with jury votes, and there a lot of rockers this year, maybe a ballad will be a blessed relief. Think it’s a decent ew bet
 
Uk are fav to come last but I think they could pick up enough points from the Televote as a 'memorable' novelty act. Austria however sounds like a poorer version of our song (If that is possible). They have drifted out to 5/2 which is worth taking.
 
Runragged said:
Uk are fav to come last but I think they could pick up enough points from the Televote as a 'memorable' novelty act. Austria however sounds like a poorer version of our song (If that is possible). They have drifted out to 5/2 which is worth taking.
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The bible tip Austria for last at 9/4…
 
If people can retain the faith

Leopard du Berlais is 5/2 in the French Triumph tomorrow

Was in a league of his own last Autumn

Prep run first run of the year, then fell early on enough lto

Suspect he will SP more 6/4 ish
 
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What price were Bulgaria? Didn't see them mentioned but just checked the results and looks like they smashed both votes and won by a mile!
 
Vindegaard has just won the first big Mountain stage of the Giro with relative ease and gone into the lead for the KoM jersey. He sits at Evens to win it, and realistically it's his as long as he can be bothered to win it.

Will use for a couple of roll ups
 
Benjy23 said:
What price were Bulgaria? Didn't see them mentioned but just checked the results and looks like they smashed both votes and won by a mile!
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I'll retire back to my corner for the summer after this. Bulgaria were third favs prior to the final having seen a bit of support, though a fair way behind Finland and Australia. They didn't feature prominently in any of the polls which are normally an excellent guide to how the final will go. Considering the betting was roughly Evens Finland and 2/1 Australia and they finish only 6th and 4th respective then they got it badly wrong also. It's very strange that Bulgaria would win so easy yet not be picked up in any of the polls. We have the Semi final splits now with Bulgaria winning the 2nd Semi and Australia only 3rd. However, Bulgaria were only 5th on the Jury vote for that, so to top the final is some swing considering there was only a couple of days between performances. Interestingly, Finland were also only 3rd in the first semi final (2nd on jury to Poland and 5th on public vote) so despite being popular in polls, when it came to voting they were deserted. Surprised it was so low in the Semi final though admittedly in the final it got a bit lost amongst all the acts.

As to last place, then as I thought Austria would struggle. You would have shocked me if I was told beforehand that the UK would get more points on the Jury Vote than the Tele Vote though! Looking it up, Austria got their Televote points from their geographical and linguistic neighbours in Germany (3 Points) and Switzerland (2 Points). Ironically, I suspect if you ask people in a week or twos time to name 5 Eurovision songs from this year then many would include Eins, Zwei, Drei!
 
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Benjy23 said:
What price were Bulgaria? Didn't see them mentioned but just checked the results and looks like they smashed both votes and won by a mile!
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Thank goodness. Would have been a riot in stadium if Israel won !!
 
Hurricane fly said:
Vindegaard has just won the first big Mountain stage of the Giro with relative ease and gone into the lead for the KoM jersey. He sits at Evens to win it, and realistically it's his as long as he can be bothered to win it.

Will use for a couple of roll ups
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After winning today he's 2/7 so happy days
 
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Good prices on the PGA golf. so hit Jon Rahm 11/2,Rory 13/2,and Ludvig Aberg 13/2 to hit a Cheltenham horse if one comes in.
 
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somer1 said:
Good prices on the PGA golf. so hit Jon Rahm 11/2,Rory 13/2,and Ludvig Aberg 13/2 to hit a Cheltenham horse if one comes in.
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Aberg has to come good one day.

I think he's saving it for The Open this year.
 
I would be tempted to lay the front five in the betting and have the field running for me. It's so open I can see someone from off the pace getting on a roll and taking a clubhouse lead. Kitayama has already gone low with a -7 and Fitzy -5 so it is possible.
 
Aye, basically getting evens on one of those three winning. Not sure it's a great play to be honest. Wide open!
 
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