Ballymore Novice Hurdle 2020

[Can't Catch Me]

Not sure thats concrete evidence either way.
I've seen plenty of evidence of PP getting wrong with their antepost on Irish.
Only the other week they had the prices wrong initially with Fury Road and Abacadabras.
And they'll not accept any serious bets on these markets anyway, so its a bit of a misnomer.

Plans change of course q, and they won't get it right every time. I'd take it as a pretty solid clue towards what those plans are as we stand though.

 

[Quevega]

Plans change of course q, and they won't get it right every time. I'd take it as a pretty solid clue towards what those plans are as we stand though.

Absolutely, but they won't take much risk either way. Until they know for certain.

I'd say the slight price change since the market opened simply reflects that they've got word that Abacadabra's won't be running in the race he's entered for this weekend.

 

[Scooby91]

The owner has said they see no reason that they wont stay over 2 at christmas. They reacted by pushing EA out massively. And halving the price of abacadbras.

Some guesses, surely on that news they should have done the opposite.

 

[Kautothegreat8]

Whatever any one else wants to do, in any race or any bet. Do not copy me, do as YOU want to do.

From my own point of view. I havent the slightest doubt.
He runs in the ballymore should he turn up on the day fit and well. And i have no interest wasting money on propaganda i have seen a million times before.

If you know what to look for, you know where he's going.

Ok I need to ask ......... as you know what your “looking for” ...... what have you seen that many of us haven’t ?? Or do you have a crystal ball ??

 

[Saxon Warrior]

Envoi Allen there are only two options in Ireland pre-Cheltenham over a Ballymore type trip, that could take him away from the 2M Christmas and DRF races.

Those are

1) Slaney Hurdle Grade 1 2M4F at Naas on Sunday 5th January.

2) Golden Cygnet Hurdle Grade 1 2M6F at DRF Leopardstown on Saturday 1st February.

So it's a move to one or both of these or stick at 2 Miles.

We will know soon enough.

My thoughts are if he takes in a 2M Grade 1 at Christmas, and won, I really couldn't see a big step up in trip to 2M6F at DRF when the 2M Deloitte is on the same weekend.

 

[Can't Catch Me]

I know scooby loves to criticise Andy Dufresne, but the horse cant do much more than he has.

Times have been mentioned, but I personally think thats irrelevant. He was allowed to set his own fractions so what would be the point in pushing the horse too hard on debut? Could he not have won that race 5 seconds quicker? Of course he could.

He has easily beaten a horse in Cobblers Way who had been very impressive the time before. In fact Cobblers beat Dinny Lacey an awful lot easier than the likes of Entoucas and Thatsy did, albeit we are comparing bumper and hurdles form. The Charles Byrne horse in third last time and beaten out of sight, whose name escapes me, went on to win a race easily next time then was second in a Grade 3.

Its not as if there isn't any substance to his form whatsoever. He also hurdled as well as any novice Ive seen on debut for a long time.

 

[Kautothegreat8]

I’m abit confused here....... are we supposed to ignore the comments made today ?? As far as I’m concerned, he’s staying over 2 miles until he’s beaten. Forget bets you may or may not have had, info like we’ve had today has to be accepted not ignored by talking through pockets.

 

[Scooby91]

Ok I need to ask ......... as you know what your “looking for” ...... what have you seen that many of us haven’t ?? Or do you have a crystal ball ??

He's 5/2 just to run in the race. Would have to be a bit of an idiot to take 9/2 to win it.


He was smashed for the ballymore start of the season

Hes 2/1 to win the ballymore with the yard sponsors.
9/2 top price to win the supreme.

Hes constantly matched for the ballymore on the exchange and always money up on the back side even though all you here is 2 miles this and 2 miles that.
Was the CH last week.

Abacadbras has been smashed for the supreme.
Abacadabras supreme and envoi allen to run in the ballymore @11/8 has been the subject to some allmighty doubles.

Envoi allen to run in the ballymore has been smashed from 11/8 to 1/3

Gordon wanted to start at 2m6, every time he speaks that isn't his own blog he says 2m for now. But he'll be a much better horse when stepped up. And hell be a staying chaser.

Its clear as day imo

 

[Scooby91]

I’m abit confused here....... are we supposed to ignore the comments made today ?? As far as I’m concerned, he’s staying over 2 miles until he’s beaten. Forget bets you may or may not have had, info like we’ve had today has to be accepted not ignored by talking through pockets.

5/2 to run in the supreme with the yard sponsors fill your boots

 

[Kautothegreat8]

He's 5/2 just to run in the race. Would have to be a bit of an idiot to take 9/2 to win it.


He was smashed for the ballymore start of the season

Hes 2/1 to win the ballymore with the yard sponsors.
9/2 top price to win the supreme.

Hes constantly matched for the ballymore on the exchange and always money up on the back side even though all you here is 2 miles this and 2 miles that.
Was the CH last week.

Abacadbras has been smashed for the supreme.
Abacadabras supreme and envoi allen to run in the ballymore @11/8 has been the subject to some allmighty doubles.

Envoi allen to run in the ballymore has been smashed from 11/8 to 1/3

Gordon wanted to start at 2m6, every time he speaks that isn't his own blog he says 2m for now. But he'll be a much better horse when stepped up. And hell be a staying chaser.

Its clear as day imo

So your talking through gambling not through sport. If your not going to listen to what connections have said then they may aswell not be interviewed.

Bookmakers get things wrong you know.

 

[Scooby91]

I know scooby loves to criticise Andy Dufresne, but the horse cant do much more than he has.

Times have been mentioned, but I personally think thats irrelevant. He was allowed to set his own fractions so what would be the point in pushing the horse too hard on debut? Could he not have won that race 5 seconds quicker? Of course he could.

He has easily beaten a horse in Cobblers Way who had been very impressive the time before. In fact Cobblers beat Dinny Lacey an awful lot easier than the likes of Entoucas and Thatsy did, albeit we are comparing bumper and hurdles form. The Charles Byrne horse in third last time and beaten out of sight, whose name escapes me, went on to win a race easily next time then was second in a Grade 3.

Its not as if there isn't any substance to his form whatsoever. He also hurdled as well as any novice Ive seen on debut for a long time.

Charles byrnes theres a man who runs a horse to its merits on debut.


You either think andy dufresne beats envoi allen in the ballymore or you don't. I clearly dont. And have backed accordingly. Neither do I think hes the best of the rest.

 

[Can't Catch Me]

Charles byrnes theres a man who runs a horse to its merits on debut.


You either think andy dufresne beats envoi allen in the ballymore or you don't. I clearly dont. And have backed accordingly

So in answer to my question. If Andy Dufresne hoses up in the 2m4f race at the weekend, and lets say he beats the likes of Elixir Dainay and others good ones... You think that will have no bearing whatsoever on anything? Plans are set in stone?

 

[Quevega]

Envoi Allen there are only two options in Ireland pre-Cheltenham over a Ballymore type trip, that could take him away from the 2M Christmas and DRF races.

Those are

1) Slaney Hurdle Grade 1 2M4F at Naas on Sunday 5th January.

2) Golden Cygnet Hurdle Grade 1 2M6F at DRF Leopardstown on Saturday 1st February.

So it's a move to one or both of these or stick at 2 Miles.

We will know soon enough.

My thoughts are if he takes in a 2M Grade 1 at Christmas, and won, I really couldn't see a big step up in trip to 2M6F at DRF when the 2M Deloitte is on the same weekend.

The dublin festival is a definite conundrum due to the race distances.
If he's just had a couple of stitches they might not even bother over christmas and go for the lawlors in early January, then the deloitte.
depending on ground maybe.
If Longhouse Poet beats him that'll shake it all up.

 

[Kautothegreat8]

I personally don’t think Gordon has another horse capable of winning the supreme other than Envoi, yet the Ballymore he clearly does.
Envoi will run in the supreme and IMO if he doesn’t it will be a huge mistake.

 

[Scooby91]

He's 5/2 just to run in the race. Would have to be a bit of an idiot to take 9/2 to win it.


He was smashed for the ballymore start of the season

Hes 2/1 to win the ballymore with the yard sponsors.
9/2 top price to win the supreme.

Hes constantly matched for the ballymore on the exchange and always money up on the back side even though all you here is 2 miles this and 2 miles that.
Was the CH last week.

Abacadbras has been smashed for the supreme.
Abacadabras supreme and envoi allen to run in the ballymore @11/8 has been the subject to some allmighty doubles.

Envoi allen to run in the ballymore has been smashed from 11/8 to 1/3

Gordon wanted to start at 2m6, every time he speaks that isn't his own blog he says 2m for now. But he'll be a much better horse when stepped up. And hell be a staying chaser.

Its clear as day imo[/QUOTE

So your talking through gambling not through sport. If your not going to listen to what connections have said then they may aswell not be interviewed.

Bookmakers get things wrong you know.

With all due respect, I live in a house paid for by knowing when bookmakers get it wrong. This is not it. Last week he'd win the CH. This week he stays over 2m, Let's see.

Book makers dont give away free money, hes 5/2 just to run in the supreme. That seems great odds doesn't it?

Vautour who was 100% going for the GC. The special was priced up as
Ruby to ride the 16/1 shot djakadam 4/7
Ruby to ride the 9/2 co fav vautour 6/4
And the crys of free money went out.


Little point in arguing about it, watch it play out, I'll sit back and relax. And before you know it the tapes will be up in the ballymore.

 

[Kautothegreat8]

With all due respect, I live in a house paid for by knowing when bookmakers get it wrong. This is not it. Last week he'd win the CH. This week he stays over 2m, Let's see.

Book makers dont give away free money, hes 5/2 just to run in the supreme. That seems great odds doesn't it?

Vautour who was 100% going for the GC. The special was priced up as
Ruby to ride the 16/1 shot djakadam 4/7
Ruby to ride the 9/2 co fav 6/4
And the crys of free money went out.


Little point in arguing about it, watch it play out, I'll sit back and relax. And before you know it the tapes will be up in the ballymore.

So your a pro gambler ?

 

[Scooby91]

So in answer to my question. If Andy Dufresne hoses up in the 2m4f race at the weekend, and lets say he beats the likes of Elixir Dainay and others good ones... You think that will have no bearing whatsoever on anything? Plans are set in stone?

No bearing at all, to what envoi allen does NO.

 

[Saxon Warrior]

We all know the big volume of bets are for the Ballymore, and that this fire caught light early in the season, and the price has always been shorter. I dont think anyone would disagree with that.

I don’t think Cheveley Park paid £400K for the horse to be swayed on where to run based on any amount of antepost bets.

That’s why their comments about 2M until beaten seem sensible as the owners, and owners who would be disengaged with antepost betting trends and prices.

Maybe the horse has taken connections by surprise with how he is handling 2M at the moment.

Can just imagine the conversation between owner and trainer if he does keep winning 2M Grade 1’s.

Owner: So why do you think we should step up in trip to the Ballymore, Gordon, when he has won five Grade 1’s in bumper and hurdles over 2M?

Trainer: Because the stable lads have backed him for the Ballymore, more than the Supreme.

Owner: Are you seriously saying that is a good enough reason for us to switch??????

 

[Can't Catch Me]

I personally don’t think Gordon has another horse capable of winning the superman other than Envoi, yet the Ballymore he clearly does.
Envoi will run in the supreme and IMO if he doesn’t it will be a huge mistake.

I think EA is quite clearly top dog and the best novice in the yard. As we stand Abacadbras is number two. So it works rather nicely to have the former in the Ballymore and the latter in the Supreme.

But if another, and AD looks the one to me with a bit of star potential, does something special, could that change?

I agree with the idea that EA will run in the race that suits him best, but he makes it very easy for them as he will win either. There doesnt appear to be an obvious one that suits him better.

The only reason this could be set in stone already is if the stable money is the biggest factor in all this. Thats a bit of a stretch for me. What if Abacadbras gets injured?

If he does end up in the Ballymore, which is clearly the plan as we stand to my eyes, it won't prove that nothing else was ever considered.

 

[Scooby91]

So your a pro gambler ?

Currently temporarily retired at the age of 28. When my son is of school age I'll likely find a job. Do a bit of trading to top up a few quid. But cheltenham is just for fun.