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Arkle/Marsh/RSA/NH Chase - Novice Chasers 2021 (new)

Rhinestone_Cowboy said:
I assume you are referring to these comments:

Mullins confirmed the Flogas Novice Chase at Leopardstown in early February as the likely next target for Monkfish – and Nolan is in no rush to decide whether to let Latest Exhibition take him on once more before a return to Prestbury Park in March.

“We’ll have a little chat with the lads (owners) and see what our options are,” the trainer added.

“It would be a fair battle to try and beat Monkfish again, with Cheltenham in mind, but we’ll certainly enter him and see what we think is the best thing to do.

“He’ll be entered in all the novice chases in Cheltenham bar the Arkle. You’ve got the RSA and the Marsh Novices’ Chase – and the National Hunt Chase is an option, too.

“We won’t rule out anything yet.”

I read that as not wanting to take Monkfish on again before the Festival and while he clearly wants to keep options open in March I’ll be surprised if he ends up in any other race than the RSA.
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Yep he was not far behind, and wasn't in the Bartlett either.
Cooper will absolutely want the ride too.
He'd only need a small mistake from the FAV or improve for Cheltenham to be upsides.
RSA has to be 80/90% favourite for this one.
 
Rhinestone_Cowboy said:
I assume you are referring to these comments:

Mullins confirmed the Flogas Novice Chase at Leopardstown in early February as the likely next target for Monkfish – and Nolan is in no rush to decide whether to let Latest Exhibition take him on once more before a return to Prestbury Park in March.

“We’ll have a little chat with the lads (owners) and see what our options are,” the trainer added.

“It would be a fair battle to try and beat Monkfish again, with Cheltenham in mind, but we’ll certainly enter him and see what we think is the best thing to do.

“He’ll be entered in all the novice chases in Cheltenham bar the Arkle. You’ve got the RSA and the Marsh Novices’ Chase – and the National Hunt Chase is an option, too.

“We won’t rule out anything yet.”

I read that as not wanting to take Monkfish on again before the Festival and while he clearly wants to keep options open in March I’ll be surprised if he ends up in any other race than the RSA.
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Thats it RC. I have him covered at 20/1 for the RSA, so happy with that. Just think the cover bet is a no brainer with cash out as will likely shorten once NRNB come in.
 
I agree that Nolan's words cast doubts, but I'm prepared to stay all in that he goes to the RSA.

All of his form so far shows that he's a much better horse over 3 miles than he is over shorter. And he'd have Envoi Allen waiting for him anyway. I'm confident that won't happen.

As for a step up for the NH Chase, they'll go off the idea as soon as they think it through. He's never looked as though he wants to go further. He's got more than enough toe to avoid marathon trips for now, and when Nolan realises all the top Amateurs are booked elsewhere he'd quickly drop it anyway.

As Quevega says, a small mistake from Monkfish is enough for Latest Exhibition to go close, so why would you not run him over his best trip. It just has to be the RSA, and anything else would be a poor decision.
 
Spectre said:
I agree that Nolan's words cast doubts, but I'm prepared to stay all in that he goes to the RSA.

All of his form so far shows that he's a much better horse over 3 miles than he is over shorter. And he'd have Envoi Allen waiting for him anyway. I'm confident that won't happen.

As for a step up for the NH Chase, they'll go off the idea as soon as they think it through. He's never looked as though he wants to go further. He's got more than enough toe to avoid marathon trips for now, and when Nolan realises all the top Amateurs are booked elsewhere he'd quickly drop it anyway.

As Quevega says, a small mistake from Monkfish is enough for Latest Exhibition to go close, so why would you not run him over his best trip. It just has to be the RSA, and anything else would be a poor decision.
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Very close team of owners, trainer and jockey down there, I don't think the idea of Cooper losing the ride would even be contemplated, so that may very well rule out the 4 miler
 
They are, although I suspect Gordon will wind him up behind the scenes!
 
Spectre said:
I agree that Nolan's words cast doubts, but I'm prepared to stay all in that he goes to the RSA.

All of his form so far shows that he's a much better horse over 3 miles than he is over shorter. And he'd have Envoi Allen waiting for him anyway. I'm confident that won't happen.

As for a step up for the NH Chase, they'll go off the idea as soon as they think it through. He's never looked as though he wants to go further. He's got more than enough toe to avoid marathon trips for now, and when Nolan realises all the top Amateurs are booked elsewhere he'd quickly drop it anyway.

As Quevega says, a small mistake from Monkfish is enough for Latest Exhibition to go close, so why would you not run him over his best trip. It just has to be the RSA, and anything else would be a poor decision.
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If he were mine he'd be going NHC. Of course Monkfish could make a mistake (plus others to consider), but he's looked pretty much foot perfect so far and dispatched of LE with relative ease the other day. I certainly wouldn't be confident he could reverse those placings, whereas the NHC could be a far less competitive option for a horse of Latest Exhibitions quality. By Oscar, LE should have no problem getting 3m6f round Cheltenham and Nolan would have no problem securing someone like Barry O'Neill for the NHC, who is a very good amateur. I completely see where you are coming from Spectre and the RSA is probably more likely, but I don't see why he'd mention the NHC if it wasn't a viable option. Nolan may feel like he has unfinished business with the race after Discorama's near miss two years ago (still hurts that loss)
 
charlie said:
If he were mine he'd be going NHC. Of course Monkfish could make a mistake (plus others to consider), but he's looked pretty much foot perfect so far and dispatched of LE with relative ease the other day. I certainly wouldn't be confident he could reverse those placings, whereas the NHC could be a far less competitive option for a horse of Latest Exhibitions quality. By Oscar, LE should have no problem getting 3m6f round Cheltenham and Nolan would have no problem securing someone like Barry O'Neill for the NHC, who is a very good amateur. I completely see where you are coming from Spectre and the RSA is probably more likely, but I don't see why he'd mention the NHC if it wasn't a viable option. Nolan may feel like he has unfinished business with the race after Discorama's near miss two years ago (still hurts that loss)
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Totally agree Charlie. Ive had LE down for the NHC from the start of the season. And things are panning out thus far.
 
doctorwu said:
Totally agree Charlie. Ive had LE down for the NHC from the start of the season. And things are panning out thus far.
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The ride for Cooper is massive and it'd be a blow to him if he loses that ride, and a gamble by connections
 
Faugheen_Machine said:
The ride for Cooper is massive and it'd be a blow to him if he loses that ride, and a gamble by connections
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It will but Nolan knows that he won't beat Monkfish. I love the horse but always thought he's just short of top class. Monkfish certainly isn't.
 
doctorwu said:
It will but Nolan knows that he won't beat Monkfish. I love the horse but always thought he's just short of top class. Monkfish certainly isn't.
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He maybe a realist.
But I also know he would back himself to find a couple of pounds of improvement in some fashion or other.
it’s not like he’s in a different league altogether is it ?

it’s wishful thinking for the NH chase unfortunately for backers.
although not without hope so it’s one I might back NRNB. Just in case they have a top amateur knocking at the door and/or Cooper is out of the picture. Injured/suspended or not in favour
 
That’s the only play for me in the NH Chase, back him for it nrnb. I wouldn’t tie up cash otherwise for a bet that there’s a good chance I wouldn’t get out of.
 
Has anybody heard anything regarding cobbler’s way? Wouldn’t be the most high profile of horses so even if he’s injured would be surprised to hear anything but i was looking forward to him over fences & HdB had put him up as a horse to follow.
 
Outlaw said:
Posted it in Quotes thread, was waiting for you to comment on it tbf :welcoming:
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Haha touch?. Tbf I always forget to check the quotes thread so thought it best posting here.
 
The two horses I have been most impressed with that could give Shishkin and Envoi a good race.........Captain Guinness and Protektorat.
They both have jumped well thus far and to me are both fair e/w chances and could possibly upset the favs.
They probably won't,but for me at the prices,an e/w double appeals.
 
Carnage at Taunton said:
The two horses I have been most impressed with that could give Shishkin and Envoi a good race.........Captain Guinness and Protektorat.
They both have jumped well thus far and to me are both fair e/w chances and could possibly upset the favs.
They probably won't,but for me at the prices,an e/w double appeals.
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Captain Guinness has a lot of appeal for me too at the prices for reasons I’ve written about in my diary when I backed him & after his win, he was what a best price of 16s if memory serves me right for the Arkle before his debut? Okay, you had the heart issue, but I wouldn’t like to attempt to put a price on that rearing it’s head again, I’m not a vet and honestly wouldn’t know where to start, IMO now he’s proved his well being it’s best to just ignore it unless you’re confident you can put some sort of figure on how likely it is to re-occur. Anyhow, had he won on debut how he won the last day, he’d probably be 10/1, maybe even shorter? He’s currently 20s with proper cash out, great bet if you don’t want the fav at odds-on IMO. His debut puts him in an awkward spot for getting 2 more runs in including one proper challenge before the Arkle, but you’d have to have every confidence in the trainer.
 
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ToniC said:
Captain Guinness has a lot of appeal for me too at the prices for reasons I’ve written about in my diary when I backed him & after his win, he was what a best price of 16s if memory serves me right for the Arkle before his debut? Okay, you had the heart issue, but I wouldn’t like to attempt to put a price on that rearing it’s head again, I’m not a vet and honestly wouldn’t know where to start, IMO now he’s proved his well being it’s best to just ignore it unless you’re confident you can put some sort of figure on how likely it is to re-occur. Anyhow, had he won on debut how he won the last day, he’d probably be 10/1, maybe even shorter? He’s currently 20s with proper cash out, great bet if you don’t want the fav at odds-on IMO. His debut puts him in an awkward spot for getting 2 more runs in including one proper challenge before the Arkle, but you’d have to have every confidence in the trainer.
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Probably aim for the Arkle novice G1 at Leopardstown (DRF) early February, same as Notebook last year
 
Pendil said:
Probably aim for the Arkle novice G1 at Leopardstown (DRF) early February, same as Notebook last year
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I think they are planning to run him next weekend. If the Bloom horse turns up it'll certainly be a decent test.
 
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Pendil said:
Probably aim for the Arkle novice G1 at Leopardstown (DRF) early February, same as Notebook last year
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Yes, I was assuming so, but probably means going there with only 2 runs unless he can get another one in very soon.
 
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