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Analysis - Previous Festival Form

nortonscoin200

nortonscoin200

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So how important will previous Festival form be in determining who wins at next year's edition?

The answer is that more than half the races will probably be won by horses who competed at this year's Festival.

If you ignore the Bumper, Triumph Hurdle and Fred Winter it's likely 10 of the other 25 races will be won by a horse which finished in the first FIVE at the Festival this year.

That strikes me as being pretty significant in trying to narrow down the pool of potential winners.

Saxon Warrior set me thinking about the impact of previous Festival form when he wrote in his terrific piece on the Stayers Hurdle: "In the last four years 11 of the 12 placed horses ran in the prior years Festival ,with 10 finishing 7th or better.
The Bartlett has the best race record, with the last three winners, and a 3rd in 2017."

So leaving out the Bumper, Triumph and Fred Winter I had a look at all 100 Festival winners over the last 4 years to see how many competed at the event 12 months before their victory.

Here are the headline results:

13 horses returned to win for the second year in a row.
14 horses who finished 2nd or 3rd returned to win.
25 horses who were unplaced at the previous Festival won on their return (13 of these finished 4th or 5th).

Between them they won 52 of the 100 races.

I realise 4 years is only a small sample.

But during this period 40 per cent of races at the Festival have been won by a horse that finished 1,2,3,4 or 5 at the previous year's event.

If you set the double winners aside - on the basis that most of these will be skinny prices - you are still left with more than a quarter of races at next year's Festival likely to be won by horses placed 2,3,4 or 5 this March.

For Goshen fans 2 races during this period were won by horses that fell at the previous year's Festival.

2020: won/won 3, placed/won 3, unplaced/won 4
2019: won/won 2, placed/won 2, unplaced/won 10
2018: won/won 5, placed/won 2, unplaced/won 6
2017: won/won 3, placed/won 7, unplaced/won 5

The races which threw up more than one winner the following season during this 4-year period were:

Champion Chase 5 (3 in Champion Chase/2 in Ryanair)
Champion Hurdle 4
Ballymore 4
Coral Cup 4
Mares Nov Hurdle 3
Albert Bartlett 3
Martin Pipe 3 (a surprise to me that it's thrown up this many winners)
Supreme 3
Close Bros 2
Arkle 2
Triumph 2
Foxhunter 2
Kim Muir 2
Gold Cup 2
Pertemps 2

So how much do these stats actually help us pick winners at next year's Festival?

I'm not sure!!

They tell us what we already knew - that previous Festival form is important (provided 52 per cent of winners). But then again 48 per cent of races in this period went to horses that hadn't run at the previous year's Festival. I suppose that figure is skewed by Supreme, Ballymore and Martin Pipe horses who were making their Festival debut because they didn't contest the Bumper.

For me, the most interesting stat is that horses finishing 2nd,3rd,4th and 5th the previous year came back and won 27 per cent of Festival races (27) during this 4-year period.

This year's Festival returned the lowest success rate for horses who competed at the previous year's Festival - they won 10 of the 25 races for a 40 per cent strike rate.

6 came back to win over hurdles aged 6,6,6,7,7,8
4 came back to win chases aged 8,8,9,9

I suppose the conclusion is that stats make up just a small part of the picture when backing a horse to win at the Festival.

The recent stats someone posted on the forum to show how wide of the mark the ante-post market was this time last year indicate most of next year's winners are probably lurking in the shadows.

But if your fancy ran at this year's Festival and finished in the first five you are more likely to be onto a winner than if it was a no show in March.
 
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Previous Cheltenham festival form should be the first port of call on everyone's list when trying to pick winners.
 
This is why the Bartlett is gonna be some hot form
 
nortonscoin200 said:
The recent stats someone posted on the forum to show how wide of the mark the ante-post market was this time last year indicate most of next year's winners are probably lurking in the shadows.

But if your fancy ran at this year's Festival and finished in the first five you are more likely to be onto a winner than if it was a no show in March.
Click to expand...

Norton’s, this is absolutely top work, thank you for highlighting it, particularly that 25% of winners (year-after-year, on average) were horses that finished 2nd,3rd,4th,5th in the previous Festival. :encouragement::applause::applause::applause:

27 winners in four years were returning from a 2nd to 5th place, which is double the number that were winners at prior Festivals and won again.

As you mention, it was my work from researching the Racing Post betting markets that showed that a lot of future Festival winners weren’t even mentioned in the top of the early markets for the Festivals top races, even in November of the new season.

It just shows we need to keep open minds on which horses returning the following year can win, and not always stick to the obvious ones repeating again.

Maybe we need to list those coming 2nd to 5th last season, and look at where they are in various markets now, and then again in January when all 28 races are priced up.
 
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Saxon Warrior said:
Norton’s, this is absolutely top work, thank you for highlighting it, particularly that 25% of winners (year-after-year, on average) were horses that finished 2nd,3rd,4th,5th in the previous Festival. :encouragement::applause::applause::applause:

27 winners in four years were returning from a 2nd to 5th place, which is double the number that were winners at prior Festivals and won again.

As you mention, it was my work from researching the Racing Post betting markets that showed that a lot of future Festival winners weren’t even mentioned in the top of the early markets for the Festivals top races, even in November of the new season.

It just shows we need to keep open minds on which horses returning the following year can win, and not always stick to the obvious ones repeating again.

Maybe we need to list those coming 2nd to 5th last season, and look at where they are in various markets now, and then again in January when all 28 races are priced up.
Click to expand...

Thanks SW - in fact I did start to list the horses who finished 2-5 this year.

But after the first 2 races on Day 1 I already had 8 and gave up - thinking the list was going to get too long.

For the record the 8 are:

Abacadabras
Chantry House
Asteron Forlonge
Allart
Fakir D'oudairies
Rouge Vif
Global Citizen
Al Dancer

Think I need to delve a bit deeper into the list of 52 winners to try and find another common thread which brings down the number of likely candidates next March.

Certainly puts the likes of Easywork, Darver Star, Janidil, Fakir D'Oudairies, The Bosses Oscar, Discorama and Latest Exhibition firmly in the frame. I mention them only because I'm already on board. Maybe Happy Diva too if age doesn't count against her.

But as I say there are many more.

I'm happy to list all 52 winners here and the races they ran in/won if anyone would find it helpful - or fancies trying to find the missing link that is eluding me and would unlock more of the puzzle.
 
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Can I suggest a good place to begin re placed horses returning with a place/win the following season would be the Handicaps. None have been priced up yet but it'll give us all something to focus on going forward.
 
nortonscoin200 said:
So how important will previous Festival form be in determining who wins at next year's edition?

The answer is that more than half the races will probably be won by horses who competed at this year's Festival.

If you ignore the Bumper, Triumph Hurdle and Fred Winter it's likely 10 of the other 25 races will be won by a horse which finished in the first FIVE at the Festival this year.

That strikes me as being pretty significant in trying to narrow down the pool of potential winners.

Saxon Warrior set me thinking about the impact of previous Festival form when he wrote in his terrific piece on the Stayers Hurdle: "In the last four years 11 of the 12 placed horses ran in the prior years Festival ,with 10 finishing 7th or better.
The Bartlett has the best race record, with the last three winners, and a 3rd in 2017."

So leaving out the Bumper, Triumph and Fred Winter I had a look at all 100 Festival winners over the last 4 years to see how many competed at the event 12 months before their victory.

Here are the headline results:

13 horses returned to win for the second year in a row.
14 horses who finished 2nd or 3rd returned to win.
25 horses who were unplaced at the previous Festival won on their return (13 of these finished 4th or 5th).

Between them they won 52 of the 100 races.

I realise 4 years is only a small sample.

But during this period 40 per cent of races at the Festival have been won by a horse that finished 1,2,3,4 or 5 at the previous year's event.

If you set the double winners aside - on the basis that most of these will be skinny prices - you are still left with more than a quarter of races at next year's Festival likely to be won by horses placed 2,3,4 or 5 this March.

For Goshen fans 2 races during this period were won by horses that fell at the previous year's Festival.

2020: won/won 3, placed/won 3, unplaced/won 4
2019: won/won 2, placed/won 2, unplaced/won 10
2018: won/won 5, placed/won 2, unplaced/won 6
2017: won/won 3, placed/won 7, unplaced/won 5

The races which threw up more than one winner the following season during this 4-year period were:

Champion Chase 5 (3 in Champion Chase/2 in Ryanair)
Champion Hurdle 4
Ballymore 4
Coral Cup 4
Mares Nov Hurdle 3
Albert Bartlett 3
Martin Pipe 3 (a surprise to me that it's thrown up this many winners)
Supreme 3
Close Bros 2
Arkle 2
Triumph 2
Foxhunter 2
Kim Muir 2
Gold Cup 2
Pertemps 2

So how much do these stats actually help us pick winners at next year's Festival?

I'm not sure!!

They tell us what we already knew - that previous Festival form is important (provided 52 per cent of winners). But then again 48 per cent of races in this period went to horses that hadn't run at the previous year's Festival. I suppose that figure is skewed by Supreme, Ballymore and Martin Pipe horses who were making their Festival debut because they didn't contest the Bumper.

For me, the most interesting stat is that horses finishing 2nd,3rd,4th and 5th the previous year came back and won 27 per cent of Festival races (27) during this 4-year period.

This year's Festival returned the lowest success rate for horses who competed at the previous year's Festival - they won 10 of the 25 races for a 40 per cent strike rate.

6 came back to win over hurdles aged 6,6,6,7,7,8
4 came back to win chases aged 8,8,9,9

I suppose the conclusion is that stats make up just a small part of the picture when backing a horse to win at the Festival.

The recent stats someone posted on the forum to show how wide of the mark the ante-post market was this time last year indicate most of next year's winners are probably lurking in the shadows.

But if your fancy ran at this year's Festival and finished in the first five you are more likely to be onto a winner than if it was a no show in March.
Click to expand...


That's a fantastic post NC200.

Is definitely be interested in 'all 52' that you mention in your next post.


Let me know if you want any help ruining some stats too, and I'm sure SW will be up for the challenge.



This, I feel, is one of the best trends (returning horses).

If we're getting really deep into it, I'd actually prefer "lengths beaten" than just top 5 ... it'll rule some out but would be an amazing gauge?




This forum highlighted (or I did) that having previous winners blindly would be profitable, and since then I've always earned to it, and I'm a big believe that 'Festival form' isn't limited to just wins ... but 5th in one race may be different to 5th in another and maybe lengths is a better (more time consuming) barometer?


Don't know how many .....
 
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Cheers Kev.

I'll list the stats I've got so far and try to add lengths beaten tomorrow - bit busy today.

Is it worth sticking this stuff in a new thread so it'll be easier to find if we manage to develop it further as the season progresses?
 
Horses who returned to the Festival the following season and won over the last 4 years:

2020

Win/Win (2019 race in brackets)

Envoi Allen Ballymore (Bumper)
Sire Du Berlais. Pertemps (Pertemps)
Al Boum Photo Gold Cup (Gold Cup)

Win/Placed 2 or 3 in 2019

Champ RSA (Ballymore)
Politilogue Champion Chase (Champion Chase)
Concertista Mares Nov Hurdle (Mares Nov Hurdle)

Win/Unplaced in 2019

Epatante. Champion Hurdle (9th in Mares Novice Hurdle)
Min. Ryanair (5thin Champion Chase)
Lisnagar Oscar Stayers Hurdle (5th in Albert Bartlett)
Indefatigable Martin Pipe (5th in Mares Novice Hurdle)


2019

Win/Win

Altior. Champion Chase (Champion Chase)
Tiger Roll. Cross Country (Cross Country)

Win/Placed 2 or 3

Topofthegame. RSA (2nd in Coral Cup)
Early Doors Martin Pipe (3rd in Martin Pipe)

Win/Unplaced in 2019

Duc Des Genievres Arkle (5th in Ballymore)
Beware The Bear Ultima (4th in Ultima)
Le Breuil NH CHase (16th in Coral Cup)
William Henry Coral Cup (4th in Coral Cup)
Sire Du Berlais Pertemps (4th in Coral Cup)
Frodon Ryanair (5th in Ryanair)
Paisley Park Stayers Hurdle (13th in Albert Bartlett)
Any Second Now Kim Muir (8th in Close Bros)
Chibello County Hurdle (8th in Champion Hurdle)
Al Boum Photo Gold Cup (fell in RSA)

2018

Win/Win

Presenting Percy RSA (Pertemps)
Altior. Champion Chase (Arkle)
Tiger Roll X Countrty (NH Chase)
Penhill. Stayers Hurdle (Albert Bartlett)
Pacha Du Polvier. Foxhunters (Foxhunters)

Win/Placed 2 or 3

Missed Approach Kim Muir (2nd in NH Chase)
Native River Gold Cup (3rd in Gold Cup)

Win/Unplaced

Footpad. Arkle (4th in Champion Hurdle)
Coo Star Sivola Ultima (4th in Martin Pipe)
Shattered Love JLT (12th in Ballymore)
Balko Des Flos. Ryanair (Fell in JLT)
Mohaayed County Hurdle (7th in County Hurdle)
Le Prezien Grand Annual (8th in Grand Annual)

2017

Win/Win

Altior Arkle (Supreme)
Cause of Causes. X Country (Kim Muir)
Yorkhill. JLT (Ballymore)

Win/Placed 2/3

Buveur D'Air. Champion Hurdle (3rd in Supreme)
Apple's Jade. Mares Hurdle (2nd in Triumph)
Special Tiara Champion Chase (3rd in Champion Chase)
Un De Sceaux Ryanair (2nd in Champion Chase)
Nichols Canyon Stayers Hurdle (3rd in Champion Hurdle)
Sizing John Gold Cup (2nd in Arkle)
Rock The World Grand Annual (3rd in Grand Annual)

Win/Unplaced

Tully East Close Bros (4th in Martin Pipe)
Supasundae. Coral Cup (7th in Supreme)
Let's Dance Mares Nov Hurdle (4th in Triumph)
Domesday Book Kim Muir (11th in Close Bros)
Pacha Du Polvier Foxhunters (5th in Foxhunters)
 
A couple of stats that jumped out at me while writing the above was that 17 of the 52 horses - almost one third - who returned to the Festival and won over the last four years were competing in the same race as the previous year.

15 of the 17 finished in the top 5 the season before they won.

The only two who bucked the trend were:

Mohaayed who was 7th in the County Hurdle - beaten just 3 1/2 lengths behind Arctic Fire
Le Prezien who was 8th in the Grand Annual - 12 lengths behind Rock The World

Le Prezien's defeat was on good ground and he got outpaced at the end which is not that surprising as all six of his career wins were on soft. It was soft when he came back to win the same race off a 4lbs higher mark in 2018.
 
Tremendous stuff Norton’s. This is really valuable research. In some respects it confirms something we already knew, but this has the potential to identify which ones and why. A consideration to add to your research, are there additional horses that won or placed in earlier Festivals that your research may not have picked up?

Also, you’re probably going to kill me for this. If not your wife or boss will. :highly_amused: Isn’t there potential in research on the other side of this. Are there any common denominators or patterns in the winning horses that weren’t following up?

We know for example there is a tie in to one of the Cheltenham trials for the Close Bros, there’s the Gordon handicap thing, etc. There may well be patterns on the other side of the ledger that makes it less likely a previous winner or placer follows up. Also I suspect it’s likely that different patterns emerge when comparing handicap hurdles and handicap chases.
 
Great stuff Norton's. After reading I was interested in how the stats looked applied to a smaller sample of races so did a small bit based on the Championship races + the Ryanair, and the 3 main Novice Chases. I focussed on the last 5 years (may look back further at some point) and followed on in looking at how the winners fared in the year prior to their win at Cheltenham.

Overall: 25% were winners at the previous festival.
37.5% finished 2nd - 5th
10% unplaced (context of this = not in top 5)
12.5% fell/pulled up
15% didn't run.

I then split the findings down into Open Hurdles, Open Chases and Novice Chases.

Open Hurdles: - 20% winners
- 30% 2nd - 5th
- 20% unplaced
- 10% fell/pulled up
- 20% didn't run.

Open Chases: - 26.66% winners
- 53.33% 2nd - 5th
- 0% unplaced
- 20% fell/pulled up
- 0% didn't run.

Novice Chases: - 26.66% winners
- 26.66% 2nd - 5th
- 13.33% unplaced
- 6.66% fell/pu
- 26.66% didn't run

Obviously this is based on very limited data and may be of no use, but I think the most interesting aspect of the findings is that 80% of winners in open chases finished in the top 5 at the previous festival. In comparison this was 50% in open hurdles, 53.33% in novice chases, and 62.5% overall.
Personally I generally take stats lightly and prefer to base on individual assessments of horses, but I think stats can certainly get us initially looking in the right direction. Ultimately previous festival form is a bonus, not just in terms of previous winners but horses thst finished between 2nd and 5th do have a good record. This could be a place to gain value as the odds are likely to be bigger.
Anyway I will end it here as I don't want to bore everyone with too many percentages. I have looked at what races festival winners have run in the year prior to their win which I may post later.
 
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Cheers Spectre.

Looks like there's potential to delve deeper in several different directions on this one.

Be delighted if anyone fancies pursuing it in any way they see fit - and see what it throws up.

I'd have thought age will be a limiting factor for the chances of most 1-5 finishers at the following Festival. Haven't done any research on it but my impression is that not too many 10-year-olds and above get involved at the business end of races these days.

Could count against the likes of Monalee, Presenting Percy and Happy Diva etc.

For hurdlers the top mark is likely to be eight or nine at a guess.
 
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Maybe the distance that the 2nd-5th were beaten could be important too.

A Plus Tard roasted the 2M4F Novice handicap field by 16 lengths in 2019.
Not sure that was a great sign for the 4 in behind to be 2020 winners.
 
Saxon Warrior said:
Maybe the distance that the 2nd-5th were beaten could be important too.

A Plus Tard roasted the 2M4F Novice handicap field by 16 lengths in 2019.
Not sure that was a great sign for the 4 in behind to be 2020 winners.
Click to expand...

Yeah that was very much my point that I didn't make very clearly last night :highly_amused:


I'd like the stats to back that up though... I'm not sure what the amount of lengths beaten should be to be considered 'strong' form still.



I suppose we can work that out from the data though.
 
Saxon Warrior said:
Maybe the distance that the 2nd-5th were beaten could be important too.

A Plus Tard roasted the 2M4F Novice handicap field by 16 lengths in 2019.
Not sure that was a great sign for the 4 in behind to be 2020 winners.
Click to expand...

Yeah this is true. My findings are probably quite rough around the edges, with small sample size, not assessing distance beaten, and the effect of field size on chances of finishing top 5,etc. Ah well it passed a bit of time lol.
 
SamuelP said:
Great stuff Norton's. After reading I was interested in how the stats looked applied to a smaller sample of races so did a small bit based on the Championship races + the Ryanair, and the 3 main Novice Chases. I focussed on the last 5 years (may look back further at some point) and followed on in looking at how the winners fared in the year prior to their win at Cheltenham.

Overall: 25% were winners at the previous festival.
37.5% finished 2nd - 5th
10% unplaced (context of this = not in top 5)
12.5% fell/pulled up
15% didn't run.

I then split the findings down into Open Hurdles, Open Chases and Novice Chases.

Open Hurdles: - 20% winners
- 30% 2nd - 5th
- 20% unplaced
- 10% fell/pulled up
- 20% didn't run.

Open Chases: - 26.66% winners
- 53.33% 2nd - 5th
- 0% unplaced
- 20% fell/pulled up
- 0% didn't run.

Novice Chases: - 26.66% winners
- 26.66% 2nd - 5th
- 13.33% unplaced
- 6.66% fell/pu
- 26.66% didn't run

Obviously this is based on very limited data and may be of no use, but I think the most interesting aspect of the findings is that 80% of winners in open chases finished in the top 5 at the previous festival. In comparison this was 50% in open hurdles, 53.33% in novice hurdles, and 62.5% overall.
Personally I generally take stats lightly and prefer to base on individual assessments of horses, but I think stats can certainly get us initially looking in the right direction. Ultimately previous festival form is a bonus, not just in terms of previous winners but horses thst finished between 2nd and 5th do have a good record. This could be a place to gain value as the odds are likely to be bigger.
Anyway I will end it here as I don't want to bore everyone with too many percentages. I have looked at what races festival winners have run in the year prior to their win which I may post later.
Click to expand...

Cracking stuff SP - love the 80 per cent open chases stat. That certain deserves close inspection.
 
nortonscoin200 said:
Cracking stuff SP - love the 80 per cent open chases stat. That certain deserves close inspection.
Click to expand...

I've broken down into each race and extended to 10 years along with previous year's race. I'll post later
 
Just how good is both the quality of the work and the posts?! I’m deep into trends and stats, but not for their own sake. This is superb work boys, and I want to say a very heartfelt thank you.
 
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