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An Easy (sland) Conundrum

Spectre

Spectre

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I'm putting this post up because I want to ask the collective Flat Jockey brains to help me to decide how to create the best possible position I can in my book, but also because I think as an overall thought process it may perhaps help some posters think about a more strategic approach to their antepost betting, and open their minds how to do so.

In my current book I've used Easysland a lot to boost multi bets, and I also have him in several Skybet Specials. Those multi's currently have close to 120 points that rely on him, which you could argue is a lot to tie up on one horse, particularly this far out. But it's a deliberate and calcualted strategy because the returns are potentially superb, and he is without doubt the most solid horse in the Festival betting markets, probably as solid as any horse over the last few seasons, so I feel it's a position I want to take. Of course there is risk of injury, or something coming from left field that we don't know about, so it's prudent to balance my books and to have a strategy to do so.

I'd therefore be interested in what you guys would do in this instance, why you'd go that way, and whether you have any additional thoughts on a different strategy. I've listed the scenarios, and combinations that I'm considering and will work on over the next few weeks, with the aim of having my Easysland mitigation strategy done and put to bed by the end of the month. I know we're talking about a position on just one horse for this thread, but I feel it could be a useful exercise, and perhaps a bit of an eye opener, in terms of how to take a strong position on a horse (which many have with horses like Envoi Allen, Shishkin, Honeysuckle, et al), all with the potential of fantastic returns, with a good mitigation strategy to reduce the risk to acceptable levels of losing a large outlay completely.

So to get the debate going, I've listed the proposed choices below, plus an option for any other strategies as yet not yet considered. Let's discuss what you think about each choice, and what you think is the best of them and why. Also whether you would perhaps use more than one option, and in what way.

1. Win lay Easysland
2. Place lay Easysland (on the basis that he'ss probably a win or bust horse)
3. Back Tiger Roll each way at 5/1 to my Easysland stake
4. Back Tiger at 5/1 to another level of return
5. Do Tiger Roll roll ups to my Easysland stake
6. Do Tiger Roll roll ups to another level of return
7. Replicate the best Easysland multis with Tiger Roll
8. AN Other
 
Replicate the best Easysland multis without Easysland.

Replicate the best Easysland multis with Golden Pal (BC Juvenile Sprint Turf)

Replicate the best Easysland multis with another pick that you think will win at 2/1 or less, running on the flat or elsewhere, before the jump season gets into swing.

With such a short-priced horse, its possible to find a substitute for him, to get the ball-rolling, from the remaining flat racing programme.

Unless you want a pure-Festival bet that is. :very_drunk:
 
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Surely your Easysland position can only be properly considered during race week.
The horses you have put in multis with Easysland may end up non runners and you could end up in that horrific position of nothing to go with your nap, and similarly if Easysland were to be a non runner you have a bunch of multis that are going nowhere.
I don't think there's anything you can/should be doing now, you've taken a view and for me I think it's a case of strapping in and re-visiting in March, if everything you have included makes March healthy and in form then laying Easysland may make some sense but without looking at your diary I don't know if you have a single on the horse...

Just checked, no Easysland single so I would just run them as they are
 
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I think Easyland could quite easily go Gold Cup route so I wouldnt back him for X- country at current prices
 
I think Easyland could quite easily go Gold Cup so I wouldnt back him for X- country at current prices
 
If you done option 7 and they all landed your buggest race of the festival will be this race and will also be your biggest headache!
 
Im not in the same position but hes in a few of my multis aswell, ill be backing something big on the day in the “without easysland market” (most likely tiger roll at that point) but ill double tiger roll without easysland and another fancy of mine in another race thats how ill play it
 
I'd pretty much be where Ista is, I'd sit on it for now.

Personally, having that much invested in one horse is beyond my own way of doing things, however I'd like to think if I was ever in your situation I'd be looking at laying some off nearer the time (probably February).

I wouldn't be backing Tiger Roll ante post though, because you're essentially increasing your risk (should both get injured prior to the festival) on a horse you initially was backing heavily against in the first place.
 
I'm with Isty, CoD and Ray in that I'd be going nowhere near Tiger Roll until much closer to the day if at all. I wouldn't be surprised if Easysland's main opposition was also trained in France so I'd wait until the pre-Christmas meetings to see what comes over for those XC races.
 
archie said:
I'm with Isty, CoD and Ray in that I'd be going nowhere near Tiger Roll until much closer to the day if at all. I wouldn't be surprised if Easysland's main opposition was also trained in France so I'd wait until the pre-Christmas meetings to see what comes over for those XC races.
Click to expand...

Absolutely this.
 
I'd go with option 1, but not for another 6 months. No point in laying Easysland at the moment, unless you are really uncomfortable with how you've staked him so far.

I'd wait until day of race and adjust my position then. It could all go wrong in the meantime but if you lay off too early you needn't have included him in the first place.

Fortune favours the bold, Spectre. Good luck.:encouragement:
 
For whatever reason Spectre hasn’t backed the horse in a single so presumably has been using Easysland as a price push only.
I had a quick look earlier and couldn’t see any cross country market on betfair (I am becoming increasingly blind though) so unless he has access to overseas markets I’m not sure how he’d be able to lay the horse...
 
While Easysland's most likely target is the Cross Country I'd also be slightly worried that JP might have a crack at the Gold Cup.

He's only won the GC once (Synchronised in 2012) and surely he'd love to bag another.

JP didn't have a runner in the GC this year but obviously has Champ for next March.

He's rated 9lbs superior to Easysland but if the GC was run tomorrow and they both lined up I'd go for Easysland every time - specially as he's available at 33-1 and Champ is a 12-1 shot.

If I were Spectre I'd lay Easysland to win to recoup whatever he feels is an acceptable return in case the worst happens.

I imagine Easysland will again contest the Glenfarcias Chase at Cheltenham in December if he's going for a repeat success in the XC. If he wins that his price will surely contract further and maybe that would be the time to lay him off. In the meantime sweat it out!

But as he'll be a 7-year-old next year with plenty of chasing experience under his belt, surely there must be a temptation to go the GC route.

Setting aside Spectre's bets (best of luck with all the multiples, hope some do the biz) I'd love to see him in the GC.

He'd be among my top 3 picks for the race with ABP and Minella Indo.
 
Right on both counts Istabraq. I've been using him as a price push, and it's too early for the X-C exchange market.

It's no different than having 100 points on him at 2/1, except the upside is thousands of times better. I'd have to go and check, but I'd be reasonably confident that even my smallest multiple I have him in would come close to covering all my stakes. As long as he makes it there I'm comfortable that he'll tag a few multiples for me this year, and I'm confident he gives me upsides on the bets. There are four risks. Injury, a sub-par performance, Pegasus running in the race. or re-routing to the Gold Cup. All of which I intend to cover for. I've deliberately held back from my opinion so far to let the responses flow. I think there are probably better ideas out there than I've thought of. Saxon Warrior has already made some alternative suggestions.

Many of you guys are braver than me and would tough it out, but I will in some part or degree take a position against him over the next month, particularly before he starts out fully in his work and we get the usual pre-season announcements of horses out for the season. Taking a strong position on a horse doesn't mean I want to completely balls it out for 6 months. Where possible I want to cover my position and only see upside in him by March. That said I'm not completely risk averse either so I don't need to cover my entire stake in the next month. I do want to start the process though.

There is increased risk every time he's set to race, and there is the additional risk of another genuine challenger coming out of the woodwork. On the flip side there is a higher than average likelihood that when he races and wins his odds will get trimmed again, and of all the horses at the Festival he's the one most likely to be the shortest odds on price of the week. The risk really increases in the month leading up to the Festival when his work has been stepped up to the absolute max to get him hard fit, and when he travels over from France. I'd want to have finished my position on him by the end of January latest, because he won't run again and there's no benefit in doing otherwise.

The big advantage of playing long range antepost is the enhanced odds of 5/2 and 2/1, when he might be 8/11 in the lead up. But it comes at the price of increased risk and will have been discussed on here many times before. My aim is to make a profit and not a loss. Ideally I want to cover my bets so I have no downside, and any winning multiples are upside. The further I am out from the event and the longer it takes to cover my stake, the more likely he is to be a loser in my book.
 
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To be fair, in the absence of any single Easysland is no more important to your portfolio than the horses you have with him, as he’s been used as a price push only, with no return on him winning, it’s your other horses that are the real fancies...
 
That's only one side of the coin though. I've hooked up to plenty of other horses in the expectation of ending up with several winning bets, so it's easy to view it the other way round too which I do. In my mind he's the important leg and the bets can only come in if he wins. The outlay on him makes it so.
 
I could understand you trying to hedge if his price had contracted but I don't see the benefit of trading out when he's pretty much the same price.

Are you looking to add others in the cross country, rather than laying Easysland at this stage?

I feel like I'm missing something:dejection:

Ignore me Spectre - I'm with you now, although it took a pen and paper to fully understand it.
 
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As soon as BF has a Cross Country Chase market, I would be Win laying Easysland to at least cover the combined Easysland win portion of all of the multis (ie assume he wins at the Win lay odds).

Using the Archie formula of around Evens for a horse to make it to Cheltenham, there is theoretically a 50% chance that the Win lay will land and this will be a known return anytime between the date of the lay bet and race day. It also protects against Easysland being sent to the GC instead.

Once the Win lay is in place, further bets or hedging can be carried out to shape the end position.

Given that the Cross Country is currently the 5th race on the card on day 2, how many multiple bets will by then solely depend on the Easysland result. If the returns from these exceed the previous Win lay then you make a profit. If not then you can hedge your Win lay bet by backing Easysland to Win, albeit most likely at much skinnier odds.

Another option to consider is to Win lay Easysland ASAP and then Win back him when NRNB becomes available. If he doesn't run you then get the Win lay return and the NRNB stake back. Similar to above, you can further Win lay Easysland on race day if a significant proportion of your multis have landed or look highly likely to land. I'm assuming if Easysland makes it to the race he will end up being odds on favourite which makes a race day Win lay an easier option to swallow, it that's needed to balance the books or as a final hedge against the potential 120 points return from the multis.

Personally I would love to see him in the GC and coincidentally he was my first 2021 Ante Post bet on 14th March for the GC.
 
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