DenmanSacre
Fat Jockey Patron (est. March 2021)
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- Feb 1, 2020
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Last years race JDS 1.52s quicker over first 4 furlongs than TNL, he was 1.22s quicker over the last 4 furlongs (and a higher FSP%) yet the overall time of the handicap was 0.91s slower than the Turners.
In 2024 when LD won for the 2nd time, the race was 9.44s slower than Ballyburns Turners win. Similar last 4f times (but LD slower than Ballyburn) but much slower before that.
In 2023, LD was again slower overall than IEPs Turners win and slower over the last 4f.
For the Turners, we say a horse can go up from 2m and cope with the extra distance as they don’t go quick early on (2 quick hurdles and then the bend generally sees the pace not be too hard). The BetMGM cup is over the same track and distance and follows the same pattern but in the last 3 years has been slower over the first 2 miles than the Turners. FSP% wise you’re then getting the handicap hurdle at a higher % (even if in 2 of the years they were slower than the novices over the last half mile).
The race therefore suits horses who have shown speed to win over shorter distances and weight seems to have less impact as there tends to be a mid race slowing down.
Of the last 10 winners I think Commander of Fleet is the only one who hasn’t won over the minimum distance but he did run in a grade 1 novice hurdle over 2m.
Add in the usual age profile, winner usually testing themselves in graded races beforehand and it being won by classier hurdlers near the top of the handicap, Storm Heart is the ideal candidate. Others of interest would be Kopeck de Mee (2m2f listed winner in France), Give it to me OJ for a place, Henry’s mare if she turns up and Foercely Proud for a place.
In 2024 when LD won for the 2nd time, the race was 9.44s slower than Ballyburns Turners win. Similar last 4f times (but LD slower than Ballyburn) but much slower before that.
In 2023, LD was again slower overall than IEPs Turners win and slower over the last 4f.
For the Turners, we say a horse can go up from 2m and cope with the extra distance as they don’t go quick early on (2 quick hurdles and then the bend generally sees the pace not be too hard). The BetMGM cup is over the same track and distance and follows the same pattern but in the last 3 years has been slower over the first 2 miles than the Turners. FSP% wise you’re then getting the handicap hurdle at a higher % (even if in 2 of the years they were slower than the novices over the last half mile).
The race therefore suits horses who have shown speed to win over shorter distances and weight seems to have less impact as there tends to be a mid race slowing down.
Of the last 10 winners I think Commander of Fleet is the only one who hasn’t won over the minimum distance but he did run in a grade 1 novice hurdle over 2m.
Add in the usual age profile, winner usually testing themselves in graded races beforehand and it being won by classier hurdlers near the top of the handicap, Storm Heart is the ideal candidate. Others of interest would be Kopeck de Mee (2m2f listed winner in France), Give it to me OJ for a place, Henry’s mare if she turns up and Foercely Proud for a place.
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