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2021 Albert Bartlett Novices Hurdle

The powers that be have made, what I would call, a fairly significant cut on Cape Gentleman, for the Bartlett today. 25's into 16's (Betfair) and lengthened him out for the Ballymore 20's out to 33's.

PP also made the same sort of moves, with price differences because of them being NRNB.
 
ComplyOrDie said:
The powers that be have made, what I would call, a fairly significant cut on Cape Gentleman, for the Bartlett today. 25's into 16's (Betfair) and lengthened him out for the Ballymore 20's out to 33's.

PP also made the same sort of moves, with price differences because of them being NRNB.
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The Spud race..?!? I didn’t see that coming to be honest! Thought he was a Ballymore type all over!
 
Topofthegame2021 said:
The Spud race..?!? I didn’t see that coming to be honest! Thought he was a Ballymore type all over!
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A winner of the flat over 2m, always the potential of that happening I guess. Hadn't given him much thought myself, but I backed on impulse, which I don't usually do :highly_amused:
 
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Topofthegame2021 said:
The Spud race..?!? I didn’t see that coming to be honest! Thought he was a Ballymore type all over!
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The AB is a tough test for 5-year-olds.

In the last 16 years:

13 winners aged 6 or 7.
2 winners aged 5
1 winner aged 8

(Numbers courtesy of Gaultstats)
 
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Topofthegame2021 said:
Holymacapony will struggle then...
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It’s good to be aware of stats but it can’t be the be all & end all.

I suspect most runners in that time frame were 6/7 so you’d expect that group to provide the biggest number of runners & ultimately have any of the previous 5 yr olds to try been called Holymacapony & run in 2021 - No, so wouldn’t let it put me off if I really fancied it, IMO
 
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nortonscoin200 said:
The AB is a tough test for 5-year-olds.

In the last 16 years:

13 winners aged 6 or 7.
2 winners aged 5
1 winner aged 8

(Numbers courtesy of Gaultstats)
Click to expand...

Rubbish stat, on it's own with no context. :devilish:
So not that tough.

I bet the number of runners to winners ratio for 5yr olds is the best ?

Only one 5yr old ran last year.
Only 2 the year before, Allaho 2nd, and Commander of Fleet who went off 3-1 Fav.

Not gone back further, but suffice to say there will be much more 6 and 7 year olds than 5yr olds in most renewals.
Logic says so anyway.
 
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This one race i am struggling with to find the horse to back AP. Its beginning to do my head in :cower: Theres just nothing telling me im running here
 
somer1 said:
This one race i am struggling with to find the horse to back AP. Its beginning to do my head in :cower: Theres just nothing telling me im running here
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Farouk D'Alene.

A few believe he should be favourite.

Top trainer, top jockey.

Bounced back last time.

Definite player.

Very fair price.



There you go, you're off and running.
 
Kevloaf said:
Farouk D'Alene.

A few believe he should be favourite.

Top trainer, top jockey.

Bounced back last time.

Definite player.

Very fair price.



There you go, you're off and running.
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I backed him after down royal and was very happy that he ran better at limerick after the disaster the time before

Jumped much straighter and any horse that stays 2m7 on barely raceable limerick ground will relish the bartlett trip

Also has a bit of class too ala minella indo and monkfish
 
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Farouk D'Alene. Backed. But its the Martin Pipe race that puts me off.
 
Quevega said:
Rubbish stat, on it's own with no context. :devilish:
So not that tough.

I bet the number of runners to winners ratio for 5yr olds is the best ?

Only one 5yr old ran last year.
Only 2 the year before, Allaho 2nd, and Commander of Fleet who went off 3-1 Fav.

Not gone back further, but suffice to say there will be much more 6 and 7 year olds than 5yr olds in most renewals.
Logic says so anyway.
Click to expand...

Realise that Q and I was busy going back over every AB for the last decade while you were pointing out this evidential omission.

There have been 183 runners in the AB during the past 10 years.

The breakdown is as follows:

Aged 6: 105
Aged 5: 35
Aged 7: 29
Aged 8: 12
Aged 9: 2

During the past decade the winners breakdown is:

Aged 6: 6
Aged 7: 2
Aged 5: 1
Aged 8: 1

The breakdown of horses finishing in the first three is:

Aged 6: 18
Aged 7: 5
Aged 5: 5
Aged 8: 2

So 6-year-olds account for 57 per cent of the total runners and 60 per cent of winners and 60 per cent of horses finishing in the first 3.

7-year-olds account for just under 16 per cent of total runners, 20 per cent of winners and 16.5 per cent of horses in the first 3.

5-year-olds account for just over 19 per cent of the total runners, 10 per cent of the winners and 16.5 per cent of horses finishing 1-3.

8-year-olds account for 6.5 per cent of total runners, 10 per cent of winners and 6.6 per cent of horses finishing 1-3.

CONCLUSION:

5-year-olds are the only age group which have performed below the per cent level expected from the number of runners.

And that sounds pretty logical to me because strength and stamina surely play a big part in determining the horses who perform best in this heat - and you imagine most 5-year-olds are that bit weaker.

The plus/minus margins are only small. But in the last decade only 5 five-year-olds have made the frame - that's just 1 every two years. So you couldn't go very overboard on five-year-olds for the Bartlett.

It's a race dominated by 6-year-olds who on average have filled not far short of 2 of the top 3 spots every year for a decade.

If you broaden it out a bit to see how many 6-year-olds have finished in the top 4 the success rate/number of runners ratio rises to 26 out of 40 (65 per cent).

The 6-year-olds are only getting a slight edge but it all counts.

Specially when it's combined with the dominance of Irish runners - particularly in the last two runnings when they have filled the first 3 places twice in a row.

Over the last 5 years (you gotta stop somewhere) Irish horses in the AB (aged 6 unless stated in brackets) finished:

2020: 1,2 (7), 3, 5, 6
2019: 1, 2 (5), 3,, 6 (8)
2018: 4, 5 (5)
2017: 1,2
2016: 2, 5 (5)

So in the last 5 years Irish horses have filled 9 of the 15 top three spots.

7 of those 9 have been aged 6.

So (bottom line at last) we are probably looking for an Irish trained 6-year-old to win this.

That means a shortlist which includes the likes of: Stattler, Power of Pause, N'Golo, Make Good, Fire Attack, Farouk D'alene, Fakiera, Dewcup, Crosshill, Ashdale Bob and Uhtred if we ever see him this season.

The only one I've backed is Fakiera (TWAR and he could easily end up in the Pipe) so I'd love someone to help me fall in love with one of the others.
 
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Great Follow up Norton, great to see these debates/discussions it's what the forum is all about.
 
Farouk for me as well. Only horse I've backed in the race. Gordon's horses ran shit at Xmas so we can mark up the performance as well if we want to, not that we need to. He just feels like Fury Road all over again. Let's hope he can go 2 places better.
 
Outlaw said:
Great Follow up Norton, great to see these debates/discussions it's what the forum is all about.
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I thought it was about graphs and sliding scales :jaded:
 
Kevloaf said:
I thought it was about graphs and sliding scales :jaded:
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You should no better than to antagonize Moderator :lemo: i'm screwed either way i've been looking at a stopwatch all season :eek-new:
 
I’m happy to give Does He Know another chance, we’ll have to anyway as was with PP :highly_amused:

But he’s won twice at Cheltenham over 2m 4f and the form isn’t too bad looking. Obviously ran out last time in the Challow so can obviously right that run. Annoyingly would have been good to see if he could put it up to Bravemamsgame.
 
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nortonscoin200 said:
Realise that Q and I was busy going back over every AB for the last decade while you were pointing out this evidential omission.

There have been 183 runners in the AB during the past 10 years.

The breakdown is as follows:

Aged 6: 105
Aged 5: 35
Aged 7: 29
Aged 8: 12
Aged 9: 2

During the past decade the winners breakdown is:

Aged 6: 6
Aged 7: 2
Aged 5: 1
Aged 8: 1

The breakdown of horses finishing in the first three is:

Aged 6: 18
Aged 7: 5
Aged 5: 5
Aged 8: 2

So 6-year-olds account for 57 per cent of the total runners and 60 per cent of winners and 60 per cent of horses finishing in the first 3.

7-year-olds account for just under 16 per cent of total runners, 20 per cent of winners and 16.5 per cent of horses in the first 3.

5-year-olds account for just over 19 per cent of the total runners, 10 per cent of the winners and 16.5 per cent of horses finishing 1-3.

8-year-olds account for 6.5 per cent of total runners, 10 per cent of winners and 6.6 per cent of horses finishing 1-3.

CONCLUSION:

5-year-olds are the only age group which have performed below the per cent level expected from the number of runners.

And that sounds pretty logical to me because strength and stamina surely play a big part in determining the horses who perform best in this heat - and you imagine most 5-year-olds are that bit weaker.

The plus/minus margins are only small. But in the last decade only 5 five-year-olds have made the frame - that's just 1 every two years. So you couldn't go very overboard on five-year-olds for the Bartlett.

It's a race dominated by 6-year-olds who on average have filled not far short of 2 of the top 3 spots every year for a decade.

If you broaden it out a bit to see how many 6-year-olds have finished in the top 4 the success rate/number of runners ratio rises to 26 out of 40 (65 per cent).

The 6-year-olds are only getting a slight edge but it all counts.

Specially when it's combined with the dominance of Irish runners - particularly in the last two runnings when they have filled the first 3 places twice in a row.

Over the last 5 years (you gotta stop somewhere) Irish horses in the AB (aged 6 unless stated in brackets) finished:

2020: 1,2 (7), 3, 5, 6
2019: 1, 2 (5), 3,, 6 (8)
2018: 4, 5 (5)
2017: 1,2
2016: 2, 5 (5)

So in the last 5 years Irish horses have filled 9 of the 15 top three spots.

7 of those 9 have been aged 6.

So (bottom line at last) we are probably looking for an Irish trained 6-year-old to win this.

That means a shortlist which includes the likes of: Stattler, Power of Pause, N'Golo, Make Good, Fire Attack, Farouk D'alene, Fakiera, Dewcup, Crosshill, Ashdale Bob and Uhtred if we ever see him this season.

The only one I've backed is Fakiera (TWAR and he could easily end up in the Pipe) so I'd love someone to help me fall in love with one of the others.
Click to expand...

Much more thorough. :encouragement:
Excellent stuff.
Would have been better to go through all the races and not just the last 10, but please don't.

The biggest and most obvious point which you've made and most are aware of is the need for stamina/experience and age would obviously help with this.
I agree that it stands to reason and logic that an older horse would generally have more stamina and mindset to graft in this race.
It was just the bare stats from your first post were a little skewed due to the break down of runners.

But even without the first few years stats, it's clear that there is a slight disadvantage for the younger horses.

Obviously the next step would be which age groups performed above their expected levels due to ratings ? :devilish::highly_amused:
Please don't do this either.:eek:
 
nortonscoin200 said:
Realise that Q and I was busy going back over every AB for the last decade while you were pointing out this evidential omission.

There have been 183 runners in the AB during the past 10 years.

The breakdown is as follows:

Aged 6: 105
Aged 5: 35
Aged 7: 29
Aged 8: 12
Aged 9: 2

During the past decade the winners breakdown is:

Aged 6: 6
Aged 7: 2
Aged 5: 1
Aged 8: 1

The breakdown of horses finishing in the first three is:

Aged 6: 18
Aged 7: 5
Aged 5: 5
Aged 8: 2

So 6-year-olds account for 57 per cent of the total runners and 60 per cent of winners and 60 per cent of horses finishing in the first 3.

7-year-olds account for just under 16 per cent of total runners, 20 per cent of winners and 16.5 per cent of horses in the first 3.

5-year-olds account for just over 19 per cent of the total runners, 10 per cent of the winners and 16.5 per cent of horses finishing 1-3.

8-year-olds account for 6.5 per cent of total runners, 10 per cent of winners and 6.6 per cent of horses finishing 1-3.

CONCLUSION:

5-year-olds are the only age group which have performed below the per cent level expected from the number of runners.

And that sounds pretty logical to me because strength and stamina surely play a big part in determining the horses who perform best in this heat - and you imagine most 5-year-olds are that bit weaker.

The plus/minus margins are only small. But in the last decade only 5 five-year-olds have made the frame - that's just 1 every two years. So you couldn't go very overboard on five-year-olds for the Bartlett.

It's a race dominated by 6-year-olds who on average have filled not far short of 2 of the top 3 spots every year for a decade.

If you broaden it out a bit to see how many 6-year-olds have finished in the top 4 the success rate/number of runners ratio rises to 26 out of 40 (65 per cent).

The 6-year-olds are only getting a slight edge but it all counts.

Specially when it's combined with the dominance of Irish runners - particularly in the last two runnings when they have filled the first 3 places twice in a row.

Over the last 5 years (you gotta stop somewhere) Irish horses in the AB (aged 6 unless stated in brackets) finished:

2020: 1,2 (7), 3, 5, 6
2019: 1, 2 (5), 3,, 6 (8)
2018: 4, 5 (5)
2017: 1,2
2016: 2, 5 (5)

So in the last 5 years Irish horses have filled 9 of the 15 top three spots.

7 of those 9 have been aged 6.

So (bottom line at last) we are probably looking for an Irish trained 6-year-old to win this.

That means a shortlist which includes the likes of: Stattler, Power of Pause, N'Golo, Make Good, Fire Attack, Farouk D'alene, Fakiera, Dewcup, Crosshill, Ashdale Bob and Uhtred if we ever see him this season.

The only one I've backed is Fakiera (TWAR and he could easily end up in the Pipe) so I'd love someone to help me fall in love with one of the others.
Click to expand...

From memory very wood was available at 66-1 on the morning of the race having taken some lame steps.. couldn’t make it up. Beaten over 40 lengths in following years NHC and sadly not seen again so even the one winner isn’t a great advert for others to follow suit. My memory also tells me that a number of the other 5 year olds were Willie Mullins trained and let’s face it he makes his own rules and following his lead is not for mere mortals.
 
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