FORM - Related doubles

[Quevega]

I think it might be worth having a thread for form related doubles.

Everyone knows my opinion on "Roll Ups" but the best method of using doubles with an ante-post Cheltenham selection as the second leg (IMO) is to take advantage of the ability to benefit from a related contingency of sorts.

Obviously related contingency betting is not allowed with bookies but a double on a horse running today that has form with a Cheltenham prospect is allowed. The main benefit of these bets is obvious as if the form of a Cheltenham prospect is franked by a form line then the price can often contract, although not always. The quality of the race and context will dictate how much the price may be altered.

Obviously it also comes with a downside as the first selection may let down the form badly, and you lose your money. Therefore it's important that you fancy the first leg and like the price it is available at.

Anyway, this should be a good place for anyone to post anything they spot as a potential decent bet.

One I've noticed this week is .....
Switch From Deisel (2-00 Down Royal Friday) & Witches Familiar (mares novice)

Not sure it's one I'm interested in just yet as I definitely don't like the Witches Familiar price of 6-1 best, although Mullins comments were encouraging the other day. But if Switch From Deisel looks a good value bet then I might consider it, although the race looks trappy on paper with several potential improvers from decent yards.

It's also well early in the season for these type of bets so it really has to be attractive. And the Mares Novice is on my personal steer clear list for this season.

It is a grade 3 Friday and has been won in the past by Brighterdaysahead, Magical Zoe, Impervious and others.
Should Diesel win then it would provide a nice boost to the ability of Witches Familiar IMO.

 

[IstabraqBarRegular]

Backed a superb start to Cheltenham for Henderson with Feel Gut and Old Park Star winning the first 2 races.

 

[Istabraq]

Obviously it also comes with a downside as the first selection may let down the form badly, and you lose your money. Therefore it's important that you fancy the first leg and like the price it is available at.

Would you not play each leg as a single so you collect on one if the other goes wrong ?
Obviously if leg 1 wins you don't need to play leg 2 as a single...

 

[Eggs]

….good idea, considering something that’ll ’frank the form’. In this case, Witches Familiar beat Switch from Diesel earlier this month.

 

[Quevega]

Would you not play each leg as a single so you collect on one if the other goes wrong ?
Obviously if leg 1 wins you don't need to play leg 2 as a single...

Not sure I understand ? (I probably should have just said if the first selection loses you've done your money, letting the form down is irrelevant) if that's what confused you ?

The idea is that should leg 1 win you've built in value for the second leg should the price for the Cheltenham selection contract.
Separating the bet would lose this edge.

It's far better than any double or roll up that has no relation whatsoever, or a very tenuous one.
Like the Feel Gut & Old Park Star bet mentioned above

 

[Istabraq]

Not sure I understand ? (I probably should have just said if the first selection loses you've done your money, letting the form down is irrelevant) if that's what confused you ?

The idea is that should leg 1 win you've built in value for the second leg should the price for the Cheltenham selection contract.
Separating the bet would lose this edge.

It's far better than any double or roll up that has no relation whatsoever, or a very tenuous one.
Like the Feel Gut & Old Park Star bet mentioned above

If you think you have spotted a good form line and intend doing related doubles as a result, then to my mind you also back the first in a single (as well as the double) so if the second one lets you down you don't do your money, the leg 1 single will cover your total outlay.
If the first one loses you go in again for leg 2 with a single, of course if that one loses you've had 3 losing bets but plenty of horses (leg 1) will get unlucky or be a non trier, doesn't mean your homework was poor...

 

[Quevega]

If you think you have spotted a good form line and intend doing related doubles as a result, then to my mind you also back the first in a single (as well as the double) so if the second one lets you down you don't do your money, the leg 1 single will cover your total outlay.
If the first one loses you go in again for leg 2 with a single, of course if that one loses you've had 3 losing bets but plenty of horses (leg 1) will get unlucky or be a non trier, doesn't mean your homework was poor...

Understand now.

Yep, I'd go along with the first point, as long as you're happy with the extra outlay, or you could even split your normal stake.

With regards the second point, I'd be less inclined to do this myself unless like you say, the context of the defeat still franks the form (like a last fence faller).

 

[robith]

Good idea Q, I always love form angles but I personally struggle to follow form slightly, so good to have some heads up communally

 

[robith]

Backed a superb start to Cheltenham for Henderson with Feel Gut and Old Park Star winning the first 2 races.

I think you may have misunderstood chap, that's not related form really

 

[Many Clouds]

In that Switch from Diesel/Witches Familiar race you also have Ash Hobbs/Even Tho from their bumper in march.

So if either of the front two in the market win tomorrow then one of the early MNH faves is getting a bit of a boost.

 

[Lobos]

With Nolimit/Charismatic Kid

 

[riccirich]

In that Switch from Diesel/Witches Familiar race you also have Ash Hobbs/Even Tho from their bumper in march.

So if either of the front two in the market win tomorrow then one of the early MNH faves is getting a bit of a boost.

They are pretty weak boosts though, I wouldnt say one winning necessarily increases the other horses chances at all.

Ash hobbs seems to have improved for going over obstacles, and probably wasnt fully wound up at all for that run. also the horses in third and fifth that day have been thumped since by over 30 lengths, so hard to get excited about the fourth place winning in a different discipline.

Likewise switch from diesel, witches familiar beat her so easily that it doesnt really matter what switch from diesel does next time out. Would be nice if she won i guess, but even if well beat it doesnt really lessen witches familiar at all, such was the ease of victory.

 

[fatherjohn]

They are pretty weak boosts though, I wouldnt say one winning necessarily increases the other horses chances at all.

Ash hobbs seems to have improved for going over obstacles, and probably wasnt fully wound up at all for that run. also the horses in third and fifth that day have been thumped since by over 30 lengths, so hard to get excited about the fourth place winning in a different discipline.

Likewise switch from diesel, witches familiar beat her so easily that it doesnt really matter what switch from diesel does next time out. Would be nice if she won i guess, but even if well beat it doesnt really lessen witches familiar at all, such was the ease of victory.

I think it is a bit of boost. through switch tho diesel you have witches familiar massively ahead of both and you can make case through bumper form that it certainly doesn't harm even tho form.

this early I think you are looking for reasons to take on market leaders and today for me confirmed that as much as we have to go on right now the two.mullins horses are the ones you want to be with

 

[Ellisgittings]

The simplest example for anyone wondering is the Libertango / Sun Goddess double from this evening haha