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2026 Novice Hurdlers
- Thread starter ComplyOrDie
- Start date
Wrong race for Steinberg - they won't be too concerned given they won the turners mind, but Willie should've heeded his own advice about stepping a keen horse up in trip.
Killiney
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Interesting that Timeform comments include ‘may stay 3m’. Put that with his keenness and the writing was on the wall.
EnvoiAlien
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Looks like they've found him a bumper today at Worcester, been gelded too since they picked him up, can't say I ever feel confident when they're brought out in the summertime for a debut run.
Lobos
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Was thinking of going to Worcester today but price put me off. £25.50 a ticket!
EnvoiAlien
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Seems a bit steep, but it's a lovely day for it, some fair races, few drinks as the evening creeps in and it cools down.
darlojim
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Potential Mullins Novice hurdlers for the season coming (mainly FR Recruits)
Thought I'd take a little look at horses for Willie prominent in the betting for the Supreme/Turners
Even Tho 16/1
Milord Roque 25/1
Uther 25/1 (12s flutter
)
Mailloche 25/1
Monzon Sport 25/1
Morisk D'oudairies 33/1
Mes Chers Freres (not priced)
Moment of Grace (not priced)
Manuscrit (not priced)
Empyrean (not priced)
Even Tho - Super impressive winner of the G3 Mares Punchestown bumper last season, she's a filly so won't even be running in this race, ignore her.
Milord Roque - Shouldn't be in the betting, he won't be a novice as won before the cut off.
Uther - Interesting recruit for OTI, 110 rating on the flat for Christophe Ferland, he wasn't getting beat that far in G3s in France. Hard to know whether they're thinking more of a flat campaign though for the horse, and from a price perspective, is very short.
Mailloche - Love the prospect of this one, been on the radar a long time now. Bought by new owners PIL Gallop who also have Even Tho, he ran a lovely race on debut @ Auteuil. Prominent all the way he kicked on rounding the home turn in bad ground and stuck to his guns well just losing out to the very strong finish of Mustang du Breuil that day. Worth noting though both him and the eventual 3rd Guadalqivir might have kicked on touch soon and were maybe vulnerable to a closer. He saw out the 2m2 well that day but would have no issue stepping back to 2m imo. He's exciting.
Monzon Sport - 400k purchase at the Cheltenham sale, the son of Goliath du Berlais won a p2p @ Borris House after Profit in Pocket fell at the last. Brother to the best FR staying chaser (imo) in Leader Sport he looks a potential top recruit from the point scene. He'll wear the Donnelly colours and it remains to be seen whether they'll go for a Bumper campaign or push straight on over hurdles. Worth noting he is entered in that new Xmas bumper @ Leopardstown.
Morisk D'oudairies - A very impressive winner over 1m5 @ Saumur, he won on the bridle after coasting clear entering the straight. I'd say Leo Paul Brechet liked what he sat on this day, beating a stablemate in Miskia who since won 2 AQPS races in FR easily and also been exported to UK.
Mes Chers Freres - A winner on the flat before turning up in last years Prix Isopani @ Auteuil on hurdles debut, he ran keen early on but still travelled well up until the 2nd last where he was joined by Mister Doc and eventual winner Mon Marcel. Mes chers freres faded after the last but wouldn't rule out a better showing from the horse at 2 miles. As previously said, that Isopani has had some nice winners come from it.
Moment of Grace - 4yo Gelding bought my the Mastersons, he's raced once on the flat at Royan over 1m7 where he was a fast finishing 2nd under Lucas Zuliani after momentarily having to wait for a gap to appearing rounding the home bend, he was probably the best part of 10L off the winner Master Ville but finished with a right rattle. He should definitely be graded class in time with how strong that piece of form looks.
Manuscrit - 2 runs over hurdles for the ex Pacault gelding, most notably 2nd latest to Mon Millesime who since went close in a listed Hcap @ Auteuil in May. I would think this one will fall short of graded potential personally and maybe one for Hcaps.
Empyrean - 3 runs over hurdles, 332, latest being 2nd behind Milord Roque, he has a handicap mark of 121 which probably tells you he won't be G1 class imo.
With last years bumper crop not exactly looking TOO inspiring, I'd be looking to the FR recruits and p2p horses in the main for the novice hurdles this season. Mailloche would be high on the list at the minute for Willie
Thought I'd take a little look at horses for Willie prominent in the betting for the Supreme/Turners
Even Tho 16/1
Milord Roque 25/1
Uther 25/1 (12s flutter
)Mailloche 25/1
Monzon Sport 25/1
Morisk D'oudairies 33/1
Mes Chers Freres (not priced)
Moment of Grace (not priced)
Manuscrit (not priced)
Empyrean (not priced)
Even Tho - Super impressive winner of the G3 Mares Punchestown bumper last season, she's a filly so won't even be running in this race, ignore her.
Milord Roque - Shouldn't be in the betting, he won't be a novice as won before the cut off.
Uther - Interesting recruit for OTI, 110 rating on the flat for Christophe Ferland, he wasn't getting beat that far in G3s in France. Hard to know whether they're thinking more of a flat campaign though for the horse, and from a price perspective, is very short.
Mailloche - Love the prospect of this one, been on the radar a long time now. Bought by new owners PIL Gallop who also have Even Tho, he ran a lovely race on debut @ Auteuil. Prominent all the way he kicked on rounding the home turn in bad ground and stuck to his guns well just losing out to the very strong finish of Mustang du Breuil that day. Worth noting though both him and the eventual 3rd Guadalqivir might have kicked on touch soon and were maybe vulnerable to a closer. He saw out the 2m2 well that day but would have no issue stepping back to 2m imo. He's exciting.
Monzon Sport - 400k purchase at the Cheltenham sale, the son of Goliath du Berlais won a p2p @ Borris House after Profit in Pocket fell at the last. Brother to the best FR staying chaser (imo) in Leader Sport he looks a potential top recruit from the point scene. He'll wear the Donnelly colours and it remains to be seen whether they'll go for a Bumper campaign or push straight on over hurdles. Worth noting he is entered in that new Xmas bumper @ Leopardstown.
Morisk D'oudairies - A very impressive winner over 1m5 @ Saumur, he won on the bridle after coasting clear entering the straight. I'd say Leo Paul Brechet liked what he sat on this day, beating a stablemate in Miskia who since won 2 AQPS races in FR easily and also been exported to UK.
Mes Chers Freres - A winner on the flat before turning up in last years Prix Isopani @ Auteuil on hurdles debut, he ran keen early on but still travelled well up until the 2nd last where he was joined by Mister Doc and eventual winner Mon Marcel. Mes chers freres faded after the last but wouldn't rule out a better showing from the horse at 2 miles. As previously said, that Isopani has had some nice winners come from it.
Moment of Grace - 4yo Gelding bought my the Mastersons, he's raced once on the flat at Royan over 1m7 where he was a fast finishing 2nd under Lucas Zuliani after momentarily having to wait for a gap to appearing rounding the home bend, he was probably the best part of 10L off the winner Master Ville but finished with a right rattle. He should definitely be graded class in time with how strong that piece of form looks.
Manuscrit - 2 runs over hurdles for the ex Pacault gelding, most notably 2nd latest to Mon Millesime who since went close in a listed Hcap @ Auteuil in May. I would think this one will fall short of graded potential personally and maybe one for Hcaps.
Empyrean - 3 runs over hurdles, 332, latest being 2nd behind Milord Roque, he has a handicap mark of 121 which probably tells you he won't be G1 class imo.
With last years bumper crop not exactly looking TOO inspiring, I'd be looking to the FR recruits and p2p horses in the main for the novice hurdles this season. Mailloche would be high on the list at the minute for Willie
Eggs
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Danman
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Killiney
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Are you sure? I can’t see Mailloche at any price.Anyone would think the bookies keep an eye on this place !
Killiney
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Eggs
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….sure it was there but not now, still looks like it’s only Unibet. I’d be interested in getting Mailloche onside for Turners.
Lobos
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Pretty much a doing Niaid every timeAnyone would think the bookies keep an eye on this place !
Prestbury
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I was looking at past winners of the Supreme and Turners in response to @The Giant Bolster excellent diary thread and got drawn into looking at Willie's runners in these events. @Saxon Warrior has done a big piece on Willie's Festival runners previously and also provides excellent insight in the Irish race planning diary so a lot of what follows might be old news to some but as I was digging I learnt some things so thought I'd share.
I went back to the 2012/13 season when Willie really started to take off with his 3 successive Supreme winners, so covering 14 runnings of the Supreme and Turners. Since that time he has had 91 runners in these two novice races, 46 in the Supreme, 45 in the Turners. He has won each race 6 times in this period.
1) Of those 91 runners, 33 (19 in the Supreme and 14 in the Turners) had not run in a graded novice. They have not produced one winner of either event and their finishing positions have been 4P94P3692427606406520433875409796.
2) Of the 58 who had run in graded novice races, 25 (5 in the Supreme, 20 in the Turners) had run in a graded novice at 2m 4f or more. Of these only Faugheen had gone on to victory at the Festival. Their finishing positions have been 3316266P705538FF23353P3F0.
3) Of Willie's 91 runners that have ran in the Supreme and Turners there have been 24 who did not make their seasonal reappearance in either November or December. 11 made their reappearance earlier in the season with the remainder after the turn of the year. None have won at the Festival with their finishing positions being PP05863P7006860447529596.
Taking the above 3 points into account - that is to say a Willie trained novice that made its seasonal debut in Nov/Dec and ran in a graded novice over around 2m - leaves you with 18 runners in the Supreme and 9 in the Turners. Their finishing positions are as follows:
Supreme: 117218200011F65241
Turners: 31P111P81
Now that is all well and good but on the day these horses (especially the stable jockey choice) are invariably pretty short prices. What it does say though is that the horses that Willie enters in the 2m graded novices (Future Novices (Xmas), Moscow Flyer (Jan), DRF (Feb)) are ones to focus on when the entries come out.
The bit that was illuminating for me though was how rigid Willie is in his campaigning of novices - when they lose their maiden and how soon they are returned to the track. In the same time period Willie has run 884 horses in maidens/ungraded novices (excluding juveniles). Of these 355 won on their debut. Of the 529 who lost, 75 haven't subsequently run and 31 subsequently left the yard. This leaves 423 who ran again for Willie.
417 of the 423 that got beat in their maiden/novice and ran again for Willie had their next run in another maiden / ungraded novice. Only 6 horses ran in non novice company. 3 of these were mares (one in a listed race, one in a conditions race and one in the mares novice at the Festival) and I would contend that these races are nowhere near as competitive as open graded races. The only other 3 maiden losers who were fast tracked into graded races were Redemption Day in the Tattersalls novice at the DRF (likely due to his age (8yo) and experience in bumpers), Haxo in the Turners and Galopin Des Champs in the Grade 2 hurdle at Limerick (should have told us something!).
So, if a Willie novice gets beat on debut it is almost certainly going to have to take in another maiden/novice before it steps into graded company. If considering backing one of these it is almost certainly going to have to lose its maiden status prior to running in a graded novice and this will need to be factored into the timeframes.
And if it does need to take in another novice event then it is highly unlikely to be rushed by Willie. Of the 423 novices that were beaten in their maiden that ran again for him, only 60 ran again within 3 weeks of their debut. And of these 60 that ran again within 3 weeks, 10 had not completed in their initial race (i.e. were early fallers, ran outs or pulled ups) and a further 26 were running in non competitive summer jumping events from May - Sep). In fact of all novice runs (including winners) within Nov-Mar only about 5% were within 3 weeks of a previous run. So any horse not winning their maiden will be very much up against it timewise.
I went back to the 2012/13 season when Willie really started to take off with his 3 successive Supreme winners, so covering 14 runnings of the Supreme and Turners. Since that time he has had 91 runners in these two novice races, 46 in the Supreme, 45 in the Turners. He has won each race 6 times in this period.
1) Of those 91 runners, 33 (19 in the Supreme and 14 in the Turners) had not run in a graded novice. They have not produced one winner of either event and their finishing positions have been 4P94P3692427606406520433875409796.
2) Of the 58 who had run in graded novice races, 25 (5 in the Supreme, 20 in the Turners) had run in a graded novice at 2m 4f or more. Of these only Faugheen had gone on to victory at the Festival. Their finishing positions have been 3316266P705538FF23353P3F0.
3) Of Willie's 91 runners that have ran in the Supreme and Turners there have been 24 who did not make their seasonal reappearance in either November or December. 11 made their reappearance earlier in the season with the remainder after the turn of the year. None have won at the Festival with their finishing positions being PP05863P7006860447529596.
Taking the above 3 points into account - that is to say a Willie trained novice that made its seasonal debut in Nov/Dec and ran in a graded novice over around 2m - leaves you with 18 runners in the Supreme and 9 in the Turners. Their finishing positions are as follows:
Supreme: 117218200011F65241
Turners: 31P111P81
Now that is all well and good but on the day these horses (especially the stable jockey choice) are invariably pretty short prices. What it does say though is that the horses that Willie enters in the 2m graded novices (Future Novices (Xmas), Moscow Flyer (Jan), DRF (Feb)) are ones to focus on when the entries come out.
The bit that was illuminating for me though was how rigid Willie is in his campaigning of novices - when they lose their maiden and how soon they are returned to the track. In the same time period Willie has run 884 horses in maidens/ungraded novices (excluding juveniles). Of these 355 won on their debut. Of the 529 who lost, 75 haven't subsequently run and 31 subsequently left the yard. This leaves 423 who ran again for Willie.
417 of the 423 that got beat in their maiden/novice and ran again for Willie had their next run in another maiden / ungraded novice. Only 6 horses ran in non novice company. 3 of these were mares (one in a listed race, one in a conditions race and one in the mares novice at the Festival) and I would contend that these races are nowhere near as competitive as open graded races. The only other 3 maiden losers who were fast tracked into graded races were Redemption Day in the Tattersalls novice at the DRF (likely due to his age (8yo) and experience in bumpers), Haxo in the Turners and Galopin Des Champs in the Grade 2 hurdle at Limerick (should have told us something!).
So, if a Willie novice gets beat on debut it is almost certainly going to have to take in another maiden/novice before it steps into graded company. If considering backing one of these it is almost certainly going to have to lose its maiden status prior to running in a graded novice and this will need to be factored into the timeframes.
And if it does need to take in another novice event then it is highly unlikely to be rushed by Willie. Of the 423 novices that were beaten in their maiden that ran again for him, only 60 ran again within 3 weeks of their debut. And of these 60 that ran again within 3 weeks, 10 had not completed in their initial race (i.e. were early fallers, ran outs or pulled ups) and a further 26 were running in non competitive summer jumping events from May - Sep). In fact of all novice runs (including winners) within Nov-Mar only about 5% were within 3 weeks of a previous run. So any horse not winning their maiden will be very much up against it timewise.
Quevega
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Good stats their Prestbury 
Especially those lines of numbers, would have sent me into overdrive with the OCD.
I've repeated many times on here that Willies horses have to earn their way up the pecking order so novices often (almost always) have to win a maiden first before considering a step up in grade. This is particularly useful when trying to second guess who he will run in the mass of entries he puts into the graded races early in the season. It'll be much easier to work them out when you look at his usual MO.
As your stats show, if they don't win on their first attempt in a maiden it is a lot less likely that they will be his first string come March.
As they've basically missed a step.
The Dublin grade 1's are the key as some that come out in November and get beat are often given another shot around Xmas and New Year and then he lets them have a go at the grade 1's in Dublin. Ballyburn is a good example of this.
I also think that most on here know by now that based on the form of the horses at home, (injuries, ground issues and setbacks aside), he is more likely to start his better prospects at Xmas, as he's more confident of them winning first time up. And the spacing/freshness works better for him.
The problem with these sorts of things though, is that there will always be anomalies.
And there will always be plenty that want to back the anomaly.
It really does pay to play the ones that have shown form in graded races though, as this is rarely proven wrong. As per your numbers.
For example, it's more sensible to back a first time maiden winner who then wins/places in graded company for Willie than a horse that goes into Cheltenham having been beaten in a maiden and/or only having won a maiden (even if impressively)
If you really think about it, all the above is obvious as fuck. And anyone who doesn't play antepost, but are serious players who only bet on race week, would think we were daft to ever think otherwise.
But due to the knowledge and discussion on here for months around every novice horse in training with Willie, the issue for many is hanging on to the early promise or stable talk/rumours, and not letting go, when the stats and actual form on the track tell you to cut/fuck them off.
Lets face it, a lot on here are desperate to be the one to have found the golden nugget and mentioned it before anyone else. When it doesn't really matter. And that can lead to holding on just a bit too much for your own good.
Problem is there will always be the one that got away.
Best to write down and keep a note of all the ones you let go that ended up losers I reckon and this will help ease the pain of the odd one that you let slip through. The losers list will be more than sufficient to outweigh the odd winner in the long term I can guarantee that.
The harsh truth is that it is rare that the ones at home that look the best, prove to be the best.
So much better to go on the actual form.
Back to the subject of horses earning their way up the ladder....
It's pretty much the same with his older established horses also, They have to do it in the track or else another steps up in their place.
Willie rewards success like any successful person.
Although many found it frustrating at the time (me included) this is pretty much the main reason why Lossie did not run in the Champion hurdle in 2025. She simply did not do enough that year to earn a shot, and he had another (State Man) who was ahead of her in his eyes.
There were obviously other factors at play here also, as were discussed at length many times on here. (Guilty as charged
)
Then he also has his elite horses that can really do no wrong. Until another one makes the grade and takes his/her mantle.
Lossie for State Man
Gaelic for Galopin (RIP
)
Especially those lines of numbers, would have sent me into overdrive with the OCD.
I've repeated many times on here that Willies horses have to earn their way up the pecking order so novices often (almost always) have to win a maiden first before considering a step up in grade. This is particularly useful when trying to second guess who he will run in the mass of entries he puts into the graded races early in the season. It'll be much easier to work them out when you look at his usual MO.
As your stats show, if they don't win on their first attempt in a maiden it is a lot less likely that they will be his first string come March.
As they've basically missed a step.
The Dublin grade 1's are the key as some that come out in November and get beat are often given another shot around Xmas and New Year and then he lets them have a go at the grade 1's in Dublin. Ballyburn is a good example of this.
I also think that most on here know by now that based on the form of the horses at home, (injuries, ground issues and setbacks aside), he is more likely to start his better prospects at Xmas, as he's more confident of them winning first time up. And the spacing/freshness works better for him.
The problem with these sorts of things though, is that there will always be anomalies.
And there will always be plenty that want to back the anomaly.
It really does pay to play the ones that have shown form in graded races though, as this is rarely proven wrong. As per your numbers.
For example, it's more sensible to back a first time maiden winner who then wins/places in graded company for Willie than a horse that goes into Cheltenham having been beaten in a maiden and/or only having won a maiden (even if impressively)
If you really think about it, all the above is obvious as fuck. And anyone who doesn't play antepost, but are serious players who only bet on race week, would think we were daft to ever think otherwise.
But due to the knowledge and discussion on here for months around every novice horse in training with Willie, the issue for many is hanging on to the early promise or stable talk/rumours, and not letting go, when the stats and actual form on the track tell you to cut/fuck them off.
Lets face it, a lot on here are desperate to be the one to have found the golden nugget and mentioned it before anyone else. When it doesn't really matter. And that can lead to holding on just a bit too much for your own good.
Problem is there will always be the one that got away.
Best to write down and keep a note of all the ones you let go that ended up losers I reckon and this will help ease the pain of the odd one that you let slip through. The losers list will be more than sufficient to outweigh the odd winner in the long term I can guarantee that.
The harsh truth is that it is rare that the ones at home that look the best, prove to be the best.
So much better to go on the actual form.
Back to the subject of horses earning their way up the ladder....
It's pretty much the same with his older established horses also, They have to do it in the track or else another steps up in their place.
Willie rewards success like any successful person.
Although many found it frustrating at the time (me included) this is pretty much the main reason why Lossie did not run in the Champion hurdle in 2025. She simply did not do enough that year to earn a shot, and he had another (State Man) who was ahead of her in his eyes.
There were obviously other factors at play here also, as were discussed at length many times on here. (Guilty as charged
)Then he also has his elite horses that can really do no wrong. Until another one makes the grade and takes his/her mantle.
Lossie for State Man
Gaelic for Galopin (RIP
)
Eggs
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…given the couple of recent posts, this bit if ‘nonsense’ I mentioned a while ago could be of interest.
Prestbury
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Just to add to @Eggs analysis:
None of the last 15 Supreme winners had been seen out over hurdles prior to October. Altior had the earliest seasonal debut on 10th Oct. In total 4 were seen in October, 6 in November and 5 in December. The only early debutante this century was Go Native in 2009 who debuted in July. Ebaziyan on 21st Jan in 2007 was the only one this century to debut after the turn of the year.
In the Turners, City Island is the only horse to debut over hurdles prior to October. He ran at the start of August at Galway but was disqualified after winning his maiden so was still eligible for another maiden when he reappeared in December. Other than him The New One was the earliest debutante on 1st October. In total 3 horses reappeared in October, 5 in November and 6 in December. First Lieutenant back in 2011 was the only other debutante this century making his reappearance in September. In the early part of the century 3 horses (Galileo, Fundamentalist and Fiveforthree) didnt make their hurdling debuts until February but this MO seems to be out of fashion now.
In the Albert Bartlett both Penhill and Martello Tower made early debuts. Penhill reappeared in May and ran twice more in July and once in September. Martello Tower ran in May but then did not reappear until November. Of the remainder 3 reappeared in October (Kilbricken Storm the earliest on 24th), 5 in November, 4 in December and Johnnys Jury this year did not appear until 9th Jan.