July ‘25 Yankee

[Eggs]

Many thanks to @ComplyOrDie for Captaining June’s effort.

It’s that quiet time of the year, not a lot of new information to go on, I’m awaiting a response from @Saxon Warrior to determine if we can utilise his recent ‘horses of interest’ list to tease out 4 selections for this month. Until he gives us a steer, feel free to post your thoughts.

 

[Saxon Warrior]

Sorry about the delay @Eggs

I've been cut off from Fat Jockey since Monday, couldn't access the site.

Only found out today, that it's the WiFi that I've paid for at the Holiday accommodation Im in, on the coast, thats stopping me on Fat Jockey, but not on any bookies sites or racing sites (an odd one).

Switched WiFi off this morning and went on phone data and it logged me on immediately.

I thought it was a FJ site issue these past 3 days.

Back home tomorrow, so free from all that nonsense.

Happy to help in any way I can of course.

Could widen it out, could do a ratings look through too, and update the RPR Diary for those Graded races, and compare pre-season RPRs to what happened the following season (ie Prior season NovH ratings achieved by future Arkle/BANC winners, or pre-season NovCH ratings of those that won Champion, Ryanair and Gold Cup Chases- that sort of thing.

Then add that into the mix with what happened at Punchestown - to get a firmer hold on what could be forecast to happen next season - how does that sound?

 

[Eggs]

Sorry about the delay @Eggs

I've been cut off from Fat Jockey since Monday, couldn't access the site.

Only found out today, that it's the WiFi that I've paid for at the Holiday accommodation Im in, on the coast, thats stopping me on Fat Jockey, but not on any bookies sites or racing sites (an odd one).

Switched WiFi off this morning and went on phone data and it logged me on immediately.

I thought it was a FJ site issue these past 3 days.

Back home tomorrow, so free from all that nonsense.

Happy to help in any way I can of course.

Could widen it out, could do a ratings look through too, and update the RPR Diary for those Graded races, and compare pre-season RPRs to what happened the following season (ie Prior season NovH ratings achieved by future Arkle/BANC winners, or pre-season NovCH ratings of those that won Champion, Ryanair and Gold Cup Chases- that sort of thing.

Then add that into the mix with what happened at Punchestown - to get a firmer hold on what could be forecast to happen next season - how does that sound?

….sounds terrific, Saxon. I’m sure posters will enjoy that discussion.

Would you prefer if we move this thread to the members section?

 

[Saxon Warrior]

….sounds terrific, Saxon. I’m sure posters will enjoy that discussion.

Would you prefer if we move this thread to the members section?

Not fussed @Eggs

Go with whatever you think is best, my friend

 

[Eggs]

….so let’s get this running. I’ll summarise the horses Saxon says he’s ’most vocal about’;

Novice Hurdles;
Doctor du Mesnil (33-1 Sup, 25-1 Turn). Main Nov Hurdle bet. Dubious of G1 bumper form, DDM stand-out Bumper debutant, winning over 2m 3f in April. Clearly very sweet on this fella.
Bud Fox (33-1 Sup). If DDM is the main Nov Hrd bet, this fella is 2nd.

Nov Chasers;
Irancy (16-1 Ark)
Kopeck des Bordes (7-1 Ark)
Honesty Policy (25-1 BANC). Improving 5yo didn’t race until Jan, then won a mid-trip G1 before being touched off by JDV over 3m in his 2nd G1 just a few weeks later.

Open Hurdlers;
State Man (8-1 CH). Looked gone at Christmas but finished the season the pre-eminent 2m hurdler.

Open Chasers;
Kalif du Berlais (16-1 Champion Chase). High class nov chaser at 5yo, easily beating Leau du Sud at Aintree. Has the benefit of Harry Cobden on board.
Caldwell Potter (14-1 Ryanair). Another to benefit from Cobden. Likely to have a go at KG to see if he gets 3m.
Impaire et Passe (20-1 Ryanair). Won his first 3 Nov Ch over mid-trip, only run at Chel was the Ballymore when he beat a good field.
JukeBoxMan (40-1 GC). 40-1 is too big, as is 20-1 KG.
Lecky Watson (33-1 GC). Price is too big for a smooth BANC winner.
Gaelic Warrior (20-1 GC). Talented enough for any race.

I’ll summarise the Punchestown analysis when I get a minute but feel free to add any thoughts.

 

[Killiney]

Would be interested to hear views on Irancy as the comment in Raceform was that he did not handle the Cheltenham track.

 

[ComplyOrDie]

One I was going to mention for the June Yankee but we had already had Marine Nationale mentioned for the race, and I went with him instead, was Jango Baie @ 33/1 for the Champion Chase.

Seems a huge price for an Arkle winner, knowing the record, not only of Arkle winners going to the Champion Chase, but also Nicky's record in the race.

Of course, he could end up being second string, IF Sir Gino finds his way back to health and full ability, but 7/2 makes no appeal at all when the super sub for the yard went and won the Arkle and is 33's.

I know they spoke about going out in trip but he was held by both Impaire Et Passe & Gidleigh Park @ Aintree over the intermediate trip.

He could just be in that Altior mould of looking like he would relish a step up in trip but in fact relishes a stiff 2m and that Cheltenham hill.

 

[Eggs]

….had a quick look through Saxon’s Punchestown Review and summarised a few thought, though it’s worth a more thorough look for those with access;

Irancy; won G1Nov Hd on Tuesday, his RPR of 157 only beaten by a couple of horses from that race in the last decade. JP owned, he’s keen to win an Arkle. Of high interest given his rating is the same as KdB, TNL & Salvator. Weirdly, Saxon says, ‘14-1 Arkle is good for a monthly Yankee’.

Marine National; won 2m G1 Ch and a worth fav to follow-up in CC. I notice placed horses from that race have a good record in Ryanair, Solness was 3rd with F2F running to bad to be true.

Bud Fox; won 4yo Bumper. Back to back winners for G Cromwell after Sixandahalf won last year before getting touched off in MNH. Trainer said the horse has a lot of speed and the plan is to start off 2m hurdles.

Jasmin dV/Honesty Policy; 1st and 2nd in 3mG1 Nov Hd. RPR from race is low suggesting the standard isn’t high but JDV finishes 3m races strongly. Need to know if hurdles is the plan before getting involved. HP looks a horse on the up and we also wait to see what plans are for next season.

Bambino Fever; Won Champion Bumper and looks a worth MNH fav.

Majborough; Won G1 Nov Ch. His RPR is middling in comparison to previous winners but he in the ‘could be anything’ category, making him a difficult AP bet.

Teahupoo; Won Stayers and has to be a leading contender for next March, especially with a prep run.

Dinoblue; Won 2m Mares Chase, was given a lifetime best rating but need to know plans for her as an 8yo.

State Man; Won CH. ‘Probably the pick of all AP bets out there’ for next March.

Final Demand; Won 2m 4f Nov Hd. Top form after disappointing in Turners, BANC comes into focus but run at Cheltenham a concern.

Lulamba; Won 2m G1 Juv Hd. Bound to be an Arkle horse and could take high order.

 

[Eggs]

….I’m sure Saxon will correct me if any of the above is incorrect or if there’s any obvious omissions.

My take at this point is 3 stand out;

Doctor du Mesnil; He’s clearly very sweet on this fella after putting up KDB early last year. Issue is whether Sup or Turn is the plan but maybe split stakes and cover both.

Irancy (Ark): I think it’s the value price that attracts given he’s got the same rating as KDB. Telling he said in his Punchestown Review that ‘he could be one for a monthly Yankee’.

State Man (CH); ‘Probably the pick of all AP bets out there’, says it all.

 

[darlojim]

Don't really check up on the yankee threads, but there are a few standouts for me at the moment

Fact to File - Ryanair 4/1

Majborough - CC 8/1

Lossiemouth - Champ Hdle 5/1 (Anzadam would be a play for me aswell for the season, although his injury record isn't pretty, but serious upside to his ability and we've yet to see the best of him)

 

[Eggs]

Don't really check up on the yankee threads, but there are a few standouts for me at the moment

Fact to File - Ryanair 4/1

Majborough - CC 8/1

Lossiemouth - Champ Hdle 5/1 (Anzadam would be a play for me aswell for the season, although his injury record isn't pretty, but serious upside to his ability and we've yet to see the best of him)

…..maybe we can use a few of your French horses to follow one month.

 

[Saxon Warrior]

….had a quick look through Saxon’s Punchestown Review and summarised a few thought, though it’s worth a more thorough look for those with access;

Irancy; won G1Nov Hd on Tuesday, his RPR of 157 only beaten by a couple of horses from that race in the last decade. JP owned, he’s keen to win an Arkle. Of high interest given his rating is the same as KdB, TNL & Salvator. Weirdly, Saxon says, ‘14-1 Arkle is good for a monthly Yankee’.

Marine National; won 2m G1 Ch and a worth fav to follow-up in CC. I notice placed horses from that race have a good record in Ryanair, Solness was 3rd with F2F running to bad to be true.

Bud Fox; won 4yo Bumper. Back to back winners for G Cromwell after Sixandahalf won last year before getting touched off in MNH. Trainer said the horse has a lot of speed and the plan is to start off 2m hurdles.

Jasmin dV/Honesty Policy; 1st and 2nd in 3mG1 Nov Hd. RPR from race is low suggesting the standard isn’t high but JDV finishes 3m races strongly. Need to know if hurdles is the plan before getting involved. HP looks a horse on the up and we also wait to see what plans are for next season.

Bambino Fever; Won Champion Bumper and looks a worth MNH fav.

Majborough; Won G1 Nov Ch. His RPR is middling in comparison to previous winners but he in the ‘could be anything’ category, making him a difficult AP bet.

Teahupoo; Won Stayers and has to be a leading contender for next March, especially with a prep run.

Dinoblue; Won 2m Mares Chase, was given a lifetime best rating but need to know plans for her as an 8yo.

State Man; Won CH. ‘Probably the pick of all AP bets out there’ for next March.

Final Demand; Won 2m 4f Nov Hd. Top form after disappointing in Turners, BANC comes into focus but run at Cheltenham a concern.

Lulamba; Won 2m G1 Juv Hd. Bound to be an Arkle horse and could take high order.

Thank You @Eggs

Great work.

Been tied up with house-h7nting the last two days, and had an offer accepted on one we like best, at 5pm this evening.

Just need to jump through the hoops on proof of funds, ID, lawyers appointed etc, then a bit more t8me to relax before survey and completion (hopefully).

Will crack into the RPR Diary updates a bit more tomorrow and Weds.
Done the four races from Day 1.

I will then check through what the other yankees have looked like from April, May and June, to work through how to pitch my thoughts on this months one.

I personally don’t go a bundle on accumulating NH/Cheltenham shorties together this far out, and selling that as a good idea to anyone.

We’ve seen too many horses in that category crash and burn just recently, and the risk/reward needs to work in our favour, including 100% nailing the right race(s).

If I go near to that game, I’m usually mixing in some nearer term antepost flat racing pick (with guaranteed targets), with decent chances, which doesn’t fit into this columns plans.

PS: I’ve read a quote from Frank Berry (I think) just recently (probably re Punchestown run) where he said Dinoblue would have another season over fences, and hopefully get to the Mares Chase with a strong chance again.

Always good to know about plans for these Mares when they’re 7yo and above, to make sure their not off to the paddocks.

Though any significant injury or setback at that age, could lead to retirement (c/w the geldings)

 

[Yosser]

In regards to the Mares Chase. I am still pretty sweet on Only By Night. I think she will be highly tried next season but come up short at the top table. She ran well in the Arkle but that was a strange race and one that i don't really take the form too literally. Only By Night will end up being a decent price for the MC i reckon. I still like Bioluminescence too but i get the feeling the Grand National might be her target.

 

[darlojim]

…..maybe we can use a few of your French horses to follow one month.

Yeah I can pop a couple in once the markets start to open more freely

Hopefully Frank is handy with the odds again compared to Unishite, for all that it didn't materialise last season could have been an easy trade off for one especially

Auteuil starts back up in around 6 weeks so all eyes back on from then

One of my very high hopes for the season unfortunately not being sold though, but nevertheless should be a good season ahead.

 

[Guinness Village]

I’d put forward the yellow clay for the BANC. You can forgive his 6th run of the season at punchestown, that just wasn’t him. I imagine that he’d go novice chasing and would be a stayer. I think that he’s simply a better horse than final demand. The 3m novice hurdles at the spring festivals all look pretty ordinary to me. Pushing out his price after punchestown was a gift. Similarly with kopek des bordes for the arkle. Let’s not forget that we’re looking for an antepost Cheltenham winner, not a punchestown or aintree winner.

 

[Guinness Village]

Come on, there must be some thoughts on the yellow clay.

 

[Kautostar]

Come on, there must be some thoughts on the yellow clay.

Personally disagree that he’s a better horse than final demand but time will tell. However I do like him but at this stage until the stable tours are released he could literally run anywhere depending if connections decide to go chasing or have a crack at the stayers hurdle therefore he’d be a no bet at this stage for me.
I imagine it will be chasing but again he could go up or down in trip. He’d be one I’d be looking out for when the TWAR prices are first released.

 

[Hurricane fly]

I like TYC for the BANC. Thought he should have gone for the Bartlett however he beat Final Demand fair and square in my view and think he will improve for the trip.

 

[Saxon Warrior]

I think The Yellow Clay beat Final Demand when the latter underperformed

Then Final Demand beat The Yellow Clay when the latter underperformed

Overall they're both 6 year olds.

The Yellow Clay has 11 racetrack runs over 3 seasons (in 26 months)

Final Demand has 4 racetrack runs over 4 months

They both look real quality horses, where personally I'm favouring Final Demand as a horse thats more unexposed of the two.
When they try and fence will be when we find out more.

Final Demand has an early advantage there, as he has won his sole P2P where The Yellow Clay had 2 (part)-years of Bumpers instead

Also I think we know that Final Demand is headed for the BANC and we don't yet know about The Yellow Clay

But it's not unreasonable to favour either over the other one at this point.

A massive caveat is if you look at recent BANC winners, you'd have probably been poorer being asked to pick one and one only and load up on them to win the BANC 8 months before the race

●Lecky Watson
●Fact To File (move from NHF to NovCH)
●The Real Whacker
●L'Homme Presse

All freely available at massive prices for the BANC (if quoted) this far out, or maybe not even quoted at all.

It was a bit easier to spot them before this, but its no gimme.