June ‘25 Yankee

[ComplyOrDie]

….might be worth confirming the two already in (or the two races we should ignore) so focus on the other races you nominated?

Of course, makes sense.

Final Demand (BANC) @Kautostar
&
Marine Nationale (Champion Chase) @Benjy23

 

[Eggs]

….so we can eliminate the BANC and CC from our thinking. Given the early steer from COD, I reckon that leaves us with the following races to consider;

Arkle
CH
Ryanair
Stayers
Gold Cup

For those who haven’t looked at SW’s latest diary entries, they’re certainly worth a read. He sets out the case for a number of selections he’s focusing on at the moment. From the races highlighted, be interesting if any these are in COD’s thoughts;

Arkle; Irancy 16-1; Kopeck des Bordes 7-1
Ryanair; Caldwell Potter 14-1; IEP 20-1
Gold Cup; Jukebox Man 40-1; Gaelic Warrior 20-1; Lecky Watson 33-1

 

[ComplyOrDie]

….so we can eliminate the BANC and CC from our thinking. Given the early steer from COD, I reckon that leaves us with the following races to consider;

Arkle
CH
Ryanair
Stayers
Gold Cup

For those who haven’t looked at SW’s latest diary entries, they’re certainly worth a read. He sets out the case for a number of selections he’s focusing on at the moment. From the races highlighted, be interesting if any these are in COD’s thoughts;

Arkle; Irancy 16-1; Kopeck des Bordes 7-1
Ryanair; Caldwell Potter 14-1; IEP 20-1
Gold Cup; Jukebox Man 40-1; Gaelic Warrior 20-1; Lecky Watson 33-1

Was reading @Saxon Warrior diary yesterday, all very interesting (as to be expected) and I was wondering if he'd be happy to do one of the yankees based on his well thought out and written analysis?

 

[Kautostar]

I like Gaelic warrior for the gold cup. Finally running over his optimal distance and I think he has the potential to improve further over the gold cup trip. I expect him to be campaigned as a proper grade 1 horse next season possibly with the king George in mind as his first major target. Galopin des champs could start to regress now at his age and Gaelic warrior could be the stable number 1 by next March. I think he could be a big player and still a decent enough price too

 

[Eggs]

Was reading @Saxon Warrior diary yesterday, all very interesting (as to be expected) and I was wondering if he'd be happy to do one of the yankees based on his well thought out and written analysis?

….really good shout, especially in these quieter months.

I’m in Cyprus on holiday but due home in time for your final choice around this weekend, will see if I can line Saxon up.

 

[Benjy23]

I reckon given the Final Demand inclusion and the limited races available, there's a loosely related form bet on The New One for the Champion Hurdle and The Yellow Clay for the Stayers.

The second selection there you've got to make a bit of a leap with. But he's never really looked a chaser imo.

 

[ComplyOrDie]

I reckon given the Final Demand inclusion and the limited races available, there's a loosely related form bet on The New One for the Champion Hurdle and The Yellow Clay for the Stayers.

The second selection there you've got to make a bit of a leap with. But he's never really looked a chaser imo.

I'm not mad keen on The New Lion, myself.

I'll leave him alone as @Faugheen_Machine has already included him in last month's yankee.

Unfortunately The Yellow Clay is a difficult horse to tie down to a race. Has there been any word from Gordon about his future yet?

 

[Benjy23]

I'm not mad keen on The New Lion, myself.

I'll leave him alone as @Faugheen_Machine has already included him in last month's yankee.

Unfortunately The Yellow Clay is a difficult horse to tie down to a race. Has there been any word from Gordon about his future yet?

Aye, I'm not mad keen on The New Lion either to be honest. But he put away Final Demand comfortably enough in the Turners...

Wouldn't have Yellow Clay even considered as a standalone like. Bit of a guess on target. And I'm not sure they really see him as a stayer. But I think it's their best chance of making him into a festival horse...

Was just a formline related combination with one already picked. And one at a big enough price (YC);thrown in. It's the 1-2-3 from the Turners if that wasn't obvious, when the 3 is already in the bet. Might actually have to have a go at that treble now I've said it though

Not seen anything from Gordon. He did mention a possible flat campaign last season but that's not materialised.

 

[ComplyOrDie]

Aye, I'm not mad keen on The New Lion either to be honest. But he put away Final Demand comfortably enough in the Turners...

Wouldn't have Yellow Clay even considered as a standalone like. Bit of a guess on target. And I'm not sure they really see him as a stayer. But I think it's their best chance of making him into a festival horse...

Was just a formline related combination with one already picked. And one at a big enough price (YC);thrown in. It's the 1-2-3 from the Turners if that wasn't obvious, when the 3 is already in the bet. Might actually have to have a go at that treble now I've said it though

Not seen anything from Gordon. He did mention a possible flat campaign last season but that's not materialised.

I think they got the tactics / ride wrong on Final Demand in the Turners, and I think they've said as much since.

His win from the front at Punchestown was the real Final Demand.

The New Lion certainly has a better turn of foot than Final Demand, but it wasn't Champion Hurdle worthy, IMO.

I understand entirely the form line combination, and it does make sense, if taken literally, but I have some doubts about it, myself, not to mention the uncertainty of where The Yellow Clay will turn up

 

[Benjy23]

Yea, don't make you wrong on any of that to be fair. Attempted to get some discussion on here though

Always a struggle this time of year. I've not put a Cheltenham bet on for a couple of months.

 

[ComplyOrDie]

Yea, don't make you wrong on any of that to be fair. Attempted to get some discussion on here though

Always a struggle this time of year. I've not put a Cheltenham bet on for a couple of months.

Yeah, I figured it would be a difficult month.

So much being up in the air for a fair of the horses, knowing targets etc... A few snippets to go on, which I've kept back for the when the final selections go up.

Thanks for attempting to get discussion going though, appreciate it

I think it's probably time to call it a day and I'm basically there in my decision now.

 

[Eggs]

Yeah, I figured it would be a difficult month.

So much being up in the air for a fair of the horses, knowing targets etc... A few snippets to go on, which I've kept back for the when the final selections go up.

Thanks for attempting to get discussion going though, appreciate it

I think it's probably time to call it a day and I'm basically there in my decision now.

….you’re in charge, you don’t have to wait until the end of the month to post the final selections

 

[Saxon Warrior]

Yeah, I figured it would be a difficult month.

So much being up in the air for a fair of the horses, knowing targets etc... A few snippets to go on, which I've kept back for the when the final selections go up.

Thanks for attempting to get discussion going though, appreciate it

I think it's probably time to call it a day and I'm basically there in my decision now.

Let it rip then, @ComplyOrDie

 

[ComplyOrDie]

….you’re in charge, you don’t have to wait until the end of the month to post the final selections

I'll post tomorrow

 

[Istabraq]

Has there been any word from Gordon about his future yet?

Yeah, I figured it would be a difficult month.

They’re all difficult, obviously middle of Summer and 3 months before anyone from the media gets interested so it’s total guess work, but to be fair most of what they spout at open days is complete garbage anyway so I’m not convinced February is any easier than June !
Best of luck pal….

 

[ComplyOrDie]

June Yankee Selections:

Lulamba (Arkle) - It was only a few months ago I was telling everyone how 5 year olds don't win the Arkle anymore, and whilst I was right, thanks to Majborough disappointing, I can't help but feel Sir Gino would have absolutely hosed up for connections had he made it. I think Lulamba, whilst maybe not looking quite as impressive as Sir Gino, is still a talent, and he looked every inch a chaser in the making last season to me. Nicky's record over the past 15 seasons in the Arkle is ridiculous really, he's had 12 runners, won 5, placed a further 4, so a combined win/place rate of 75%. Of the three that never managed a place, one unseated it's rider, and the other two were 14/1 & 33/1 shots. Just for some comparison, in the past 15 runnings of the race Willie Mullins, despite having one more winner, is operating at a combined win/place rate of 47.6%, having had 6 winners & 4 placed from a total of 21 runners in the race. I also wouldn't want to be guessing which Mullins horse will end up being the number 1, whereas it's pretty obvious that, baring injury, Lulamba ranks highest for Nicky.

Final Demand (BANC) - As per @Kautostar note, I too was surprised he's yet to be included in a yankee, so here he is. The market is looking dreaful to me. Final Demand looked like a big staying chaser last season, and I believe they got the tactics wrong on him in the Turners, before righting the wrongs at Punchestown. My only concern right now is that Willie looks to be mob handed in the Arkle, but less so this race, and there must be a possibility that one or two end up here that maybe have a few more gears than Final Demand. Kopek Des Bordes would be a huge danger, for example, and given he has a bit to prove now after Punchestown, it wouldn't be completely unheard of for Willie to mention going out in trip and suddenly the 3/1 on Final Demand doesn't look quite so appealing with him in the mix. This is just one example, but there are a couple of others that could also make the step up, IMO. For now though, Final Demand looks the most obvious play in the race, and goes into this months yankee.

Marine Nationale (Champion Chase) - I know I wasn't alone in thinking Marine Nationale was basically gone at the game (at the top level at least). Breathing issues seemed to be a big concern, but he did steadily improve pre Cheltenham before the big day where he absolutely hosed up in this race. He then followed it up convincingly at Punchestown. He rightly deserves a place in this months yankee, and one @Benjy23 put forward for us. Hopefully he's campaigned similarly again next season.

Ballyburn (Stayers) - Teahupoo looked like a banker for many last season such was the lack of opposition in the Stayers Hurdle, only to get turned over by Bob Olinger, a horse under the same ownership. The staying hurdle division is hardly inspiring, and given the way Ballyburn has never looked comfortable over fence it is now time for him to revert back to hurdles. Willie Mullins has gone on record pretty much saying as much too, straight after his defeat at Punchestown he was quoted saying the following:

"Paul rode him with different tactics to Cheltenham but he probably didn't jump well enough on the day. The trip is no problem but he's not a natural jumper of fences. We'll put a lot of thought into it, but the feeling is he could go back over hurdles.

"If he's not able to jump well enough in novices then he'll find it a lot tougher in open company next season. We know he jumps hurdles fantastically and there might be a gap in the staying hurdle division."

Based on all of the above I am happy to include him in this months yankee.


Yankee:

Lulamba (Arkle)
Final Demand (BANC)
Marine Nationale (Champion Chase)
Ballyburn (Stayers)

1,511/1 Bet365
1,259/1 SkyBet, Paddy Power, Betway, Betfred

 

[somer1]

Great job @ComplyOrDie im on (early as off work with gout)

 

[Istabraq]

Great job @ComplyOrDie im on (early as off work with gout)

Gout, ouch, you have my sympathy pal...

 

[Eggs]

….great effort and analysis @ComplyOrDie, I’ll update the main thread and start next months after I travel home from holiday tomorrow.

As you suggest, I’d also like to utilise Saxon’s ‘horses of interest’ list and even his Punchestown analysis to identify a wager for next month, if other posters also think that’s a good idea. Summer months tend to be quieter on here anyway.

If he and others agree and we go down that route, there is a few possible issues we’d need to consider, not least if Saxon would prefer his musings not to be discussed in open forum. We could also simply ask him to come up with 4 selections.

One to consider.

 

[BraveInca]

Great job @ComplyOrDie im on (early as off work with gout)

Hi Somer, have you taken Allopurinol tablets for your gout. Been on them 2 years and not had a problem since taking them and I suffered badly with it. Apologies turned this into a medical review