Ante-Post Tactics

[Viking Flagship]

Forgive me if this is a subject that’s been discussed before but it’s something I’ve been giving a lot of thought to over the opening weeks of this season.

The Cheltenham Festival has been part of my life since the mid-90s. I’m actually not very old, I just started young!! The memories start to get clearer as we head through the late 90s/early 00s with the likes of One Man, Make A Stand, and then obvious greats such as Istabraq and Moscow Flyer (…yes, I’ve a soft spot for 2 milers). I was allowed to have a few small bets through my youth, I’d pick out some big-priced each-way pokes and my Dad would have a walk up to Coral to put them on. I certainly wasn’t in the game of short price favs – for example I wouldn’t have backed Istabraq for any of his CH crowns, but it doesn’t make the memories of his brilliance any less spectacular.

It wasn’t til the mid-00s that I really started to “take things more seriously” (I use the word seriously very loosely). My earliest success with Ante-Post betting was Trabolgan in the 2005 RSA, the first year that I could legally place my own bets. He went off at 5/1 but I think I’d bagged 12s or 14s a week or so before the Festival and I remember the satisfaction in having pulled off such a feat! Again it was only ever to fairly small stakes but that wasn’t the point.

I haven’t kept records of anything but I think I must have placed at least 1 ante post bet at every festival since that one with varying amounts of success. However, it’s only since 2016 that I’ve focussed on the Festival much more closely, and from much further out in the calendar. This year I have significantly more bets placed at this stage in the season than in any other previous year – by quite some distance in fact. This is due to a few things:

1. The fact last season’s Festival went so well that I was able to keep my main betting accounts nicely stocked ready to attack this season.
2. The fact that Ante-Post has been relatively kind to me for the last 3 Festivals running – so I wanted to test whether investing even more heavily in ante post could increase returns further still.
3. The invention of ‘any race’ markets and B365’s cash out option. This has removed some of the classic ante-post risk which means it takes less persuasion for me to push the button on a bet.

Much of my gambling is now focussed specifically on the Festival and, if the last couple of years are anything to go by, this effort seems to be paying off. I don’t create books so I try to be very selective of what horses I back – i.e. not only am I looking for horses that I consider to be a good value price, but I must also genuinely fancy the horse (every bet I place is with the intention of letting it run). This latter point is actually an easier test to pass when I’m weighing up a bet these days due to the cash out facility. I’ve certainly placed some bets already this season that I wouldn’t have done without this fall back.

Anyway… getting on to my point… whilst I have many festivals under my belt, I far from consider myself to be an expert gambler and am constantly thinking about ways to change my approach to ante-post punting to make it more effective. One of my big dilemmas is win only versus each-way betting. I was born and raised on each-way punting but one of the big changes I made as I started to get more serious was to move away from it. The more ante post punting I do the less inclined I am to back each-way, as I came to the conclusion that it would tie up too much of my funds, for the sake of relatively small future returns of place money. However, I know that lots of people use it and I’m very interested to hear the logic of others on both sides of the debate. I’m particularly keen to know what thought process you go through to reach a decision on whether a specific bet should be win or each way – and whether you’ve done any analysis to show that, over time, the extra investment of each-way punting is profitable for you. Also, when you bet each-way do you usually reduce your stake so as to keep your total outlays from spiralling? Or do you maintain your usual staking levels and just be prepared to tie up more cash for longer?

I’m interested to hear about the approach of others to ante-post punting and perhaps we can all learn something from each other!

Cheers,

VF

 

[ComplyOrDie]

Nice write up VF.

Your situation was very much like mine was 'back in the day'. I grew up alongside my dads side of the family very much interested in horse racing, a lucky 15 seemed the norm every weekend for my nan and grandad and we used to, sometimes, sit and watch the action unfold. They were not so big on the festival, nor was/is my old man, and I actually can not recall when I became fixated on the festival, but recall Best Mate winning the Gold Cup for a third time as my most vivid memory, so I guess 2004 would be when I'd have to claim to have 'got the bug' and I remember being absolutely devastated when he passed away whilst racing in the Haldon Gold Cup :sorrow:

On to your question, and I don't think I have ever hidden the fact on here that a lot of my 'plays' are each way. For the most part I generally only play the win only market where I am unable to get on each way, so some firms using the 'any race' market are only available for win, William Hill being the only one available each way. I also go win only on horses that I would class as saver bets, whether that be 1 in a race or 3 or 4 sometimes, I do not mind reducing my overall potential returns for a bet because overall I am looking for profit and not to 'gamble' so much, if such a thing.

I do get a lot of peoples views about the tying up of money for such a period, and that I completely understand, but for me it is something I am happy to take on the chin, in view of seeking profit.

All multi's are put on each way, no matter what the odds, in fact, someone on here put up Buveur D'air / Apples Jade as a 'dirty' each way double for last season, and whilst the prices were not 'all that' it still yielded nice profit when Apples Jade could only manage 3rd. This is the most recent case from the festival where backing something each way has paid off, not fortunes, of course, but it paid off nevertheless.

I do not feel there is a right or wrong way, as I think everyone has different limits, and whilst this is the only season I have decided to record, I know for a fact I have made profit over the past 5 seasons for sure. It will be telling this time around though whether I would have made more, less or about the same when the festival is over and I can take a look back at my records as to whether the each way play was the right way for this season or not.

 

[Quevega]

I've done particularly well at the festival as both of you, especially in last few seasons. But the vast majority of this has been down to NRNB markets and I've had only 6 - 20 antepost bets on average (rough guess). After looking back on these I decided to reduce them for this season, unfortunately that's already out the window, partly due to maintaining my post cheltenham kitty through the flat season (traditionally I reduce the kitty through lack of discipline during the summer)
and secondly due to this forum, making me think constantly that cheltenham is coming.

The only thing I would comment on is regarding the each way plays, I'm often a win only punter, but do play each way when it's obvious to do so.
But I've struggled placing double my stake for the each way antepost's, due to the not getting a run for my money fear.
But I looked back at some of my AP & NRNB bets last year and I had at least half a dozen where the each way part of my bet (had I done so was close if not bigger than the SP)
So I would consider more each ways, especially in the NRNB market this year, as I'll remember the 33-1 win only bets that finished a nose second off an SP of 9-2 for example (Glenloe) to name just one from last year.
I would say that if you think a horse will line up in the race you're backing it for then you need to try and estimate the likely SP and likely shortest SP it could be, based on the connections and all the horses positives. Then play accordingly.

 

[Viking Flagship]

Nice write up VF.

Your situation was very much like mine was 'back in the day'. I grew up alongside my dads side of the family very much interested in horse racing, a lucky 15 seemed the norm every weekend for my nan and grandad and we used to, sometimes, sit and watch the action unfold. They were not so big on the festival, nor was/is my old man, and I actually can not recall when I became fixated on the festival, but recall Best Mate winning the Gold Cup for a third time as my most vivid memory, so I guess 2004 would be when I'd have to claim to have 'got the bug' and I remember being absolutely devastated when he passed away whilst racing in the Haldon Gold Cup :sorrow:

On to your question, and I don't think I have ever hidden the fact on here that a lot of my 'plays' are each way. For the most part I generally only play the win only market where I am unable to get on each way, so some firms using the 'any race' market are only available for win, William Hill being the only one available each way. I also go win only on horses that I would class as saver bets, whether that be 1 in a race or 3 or 4 sometimes, I do not mind reducing my overall potential returns for a bet because overall I am looking for profit and not to 'gamble' so much, if such a thing.

I do get a lot of peoples views about the tying up of money for such a period, and that I completely understand, but for me it is something I am happy to take on the chin, in view of seeking profit.

All multi's are put on each way, no matter what the odds, in fact, someone on here put up Buveur D'air / Apples Jade as a 'dirty' each way double for last season, and whilst the prices were not 'all that' it still yielded nice profit when Apples Jade could only manage 3rd. This is the most recent case from the festival where backing something each way has paid off, not fortunes, of course, but it paid off nevertheless.

I do not feel there is a right or wrong way, as I think everyone has different limits, and whilst this is the only season I have decided to record, I know for a fact I have made profit over the past 5 seasons for sure. It will be telling this time around though whether I would have made more, less or about the same when the festival is over and I can take a look back at my records as to whether the each way play was the right way for this season or not.

Cheers CoD. Sounds like we’re similarly aged. My first festival in person was 2005, Gold Cup day with my uncle, and it was supposed to be Best Mate’s attempt at number 4. I was gutted when he was ruled out a few days before. That was Kicking King’s year who, incidentally, was another Gold Cup winner who spent his novice chase season as a 2-miler (a topic I know has been discussed here recently).

I think you’re right that there’s really no right or wrong approach and it depends on individual’s circumstances and attitudes. I, for example, very much bet within my means so I’m prepared to lose everything that I put down. This means that whilst it might have been gutting when my 33/1 ticket on Mall Dini went down by half a length, it also gave me a great deal of fun/excitement and I didn’t lose any sleep on missing out on the place money. I think what I’m saying is that I’m happy to chase the bigger win and I’ve conditioned myself to not let it get to me when I have a near miss. Win, lose or draw I’ll have had a lot of fun along the way!

I must add that I’m not totally averse to EW betting throughout the season, but that is when my cash isn’t being tied up for such a period of time and I know for a fact that I’m getting a run with my money.

 

[Viking Flagship]

I've done particularly well at the festival as both of you, especially in last few seasons. But the vast majority of this has been down to NRNB markets and I've had only 6 - 20 antepost bets on average (rough guess). After looking back on these I decided to reduce them for this season, unfortunately that's already out the window, partly due to maintaining my post cheltenham kitty through the flat season (traditionally I reduce the kitty through lack of discipline during the summer)
and secondly due to this forum, making me think constantly that cheltenham is coming.

The only thing I would comment on is regarding the each way plays, I'm often a win only punter, but do play each way when it's obvious to do so.
But I've struggled placing double my stake for the each way antepost's, due to the not getting a run for my money fear.
But I looked back at some of my AP & NRNB bets last year and I had at least half a dozen where the each way part of my bet (had I done so was close if not bigger than the SP)
So I would consider more each ways, especially in the NRNB market this year, as I'll remember the 33-1 win only bets that finished a nose second off an SP of 9-2 for example (Glenloe) to name just one from last year.
I would say that if you think a horse will line up in the race you're backing it for then you need to try and estimate the likely SP and likely shortest SP it could be, based on the connections and all the horses positives. Then play accordingly.

Definitely a valid point re this forum! I think my current portfolio would be half the size if it wasn't for you lot! :highly_amused:

 

[Quevega]

RE the each way thing.
I'd bet that if Mall Dini was 33-1 at final declarations or morning of the race you would have bet each way.
I certainly would have with Glenloe.
I would probably have backed all the following each way also on the morning of the race.
shantou flyer 25s , mall dini 16s, rather be 16s, laurina 12s, blow b blow 25s, rathvinden 16s.
obviously some won which helps but we need to remember that we are backing antepost because we see value in the price according to the horses chances in our opinion. But logic tells you that to name the winner this far out is very difficult and getting a run is a result in itself, so the fall back of place money at likely win bet levels on the day/SP is something I'm forcing myself to consider more and more.

 

[robith]

I did the 2017 festival win only. Worked it out at the end and I made a pretty big loss - but each way I would have had made a very minor profit - which with an ante post book means having a wad of cash back in your account.

Anything over 8s, I each way that

 

[Leman14]

For antepost singles, it's Win Only for me.
Although I do (try to) only use Free Bets until NRNB and utilise the Any Race market, so Win Only makes sense.

I will utilise EW for antepost multiples, as CoD points out that even for a "short-priced" double - the place money can turn a small profit.

 

[Can't Catch Me]

I'm very much an each way punter and have kept records for the last ten years ... Every year I analyse them after the meeting and focus mostly on whether I should have done more win bets and less e/w bets, but in 8 out of 10 of those years, I was more profitable e/w than win only, so its a no brainer for me.

I try and look at each bet I place on an individual basis and imagine them being that price on the day and whether i would back them e/w or not. Most of the time they are double figure prices so e/w bets make sense. I think you have to try and forget about the extra money you are tying up, but just make every bet as profitable as you can, and take it on its individual merit.

When you are backing horses like Enurgumene at 50/1, Mt Leinster at 40/1, Lalor at 33/1, Claimantakinforgan at 33/1 etc, I would be very disappointed for them to run huge races and be placed and lose all that value on a win only bet.

Edit - Sorry Quevega, hadn't seen your comments when I posted that... that's exactly the way i look at it.

 

[Hurricane fly]

Relatively new to antepost but I have only done e/w on 25 and above shots.

Singles for smaller odds have been win only

Lucky 15s/31s etc however are all e/w.

 

[Quevega]

I'm very much an each way punter and have kept records for the last ten years ... Every year I analyse them after the meeting and focus mostly on whether I should have done more win bets and less e/w bets, but in 8 out of 10 of those years, I was more profitable e/w than win only, so its a no brainer for me.

I try and look at each bet I place on an individual basis and imagine them being that price on the day and whether i would back them e/w or not. Most of the time they are double figure prices so e/w bets make sense. I think you have to try and forget about the extra money you are tying up, but just make every bet as profitable as you can, and take it on its individual merit.

When you are backing horses like Enurgumene at 50/1, Mt Leinster at 40/1, Lalor at 33/1, Claimantakinforgan at 33/1 etc, I would be very disappointed for them to run huge races and be placed and lose all that value on a win only bet.

Edit - Sorry Quevega, hadn't seen your comments when I posted that... that's exactly the way i look at it.

Don't apologise, I've had roughly 15 AP bets already for the festival and none are each way - I often don't listen to myself.
I must do better

 

[Can't Catch Me]

Don't apologise, I've had roughly 15 AP bets already for the festival and none are each way - I often don't listen to myself.
I must do better

Haha... as is often the way!! I tell myself, post Festival, that I definitely won't have a bet in the Triumph until the New Year every single year... never happens...

 

[Scooby91]

Win only for me.
I'll only go ew if (I'm in heavy and I'm topping up 3or 4 times my original stake to allow me the option of cashing out my win only bet at a later date to cover costs) I have cashout available. Im confident on the target and I'm extremely confident that the horse im backing will win their novice/ maiden.

And the main part of my strategy is via 365 giving me at any time the chance to change my mind or get out of a bet.

 

[TimRiggins]

Win only a/p, because it's hard enough getting horses there, without having double the number of bets on them.

Might sound stupid, but it's important not to be too results orientated when you have a win only bet at a big price, which finishes 2nd at the festival.

I don't mind e/w betting, short or long odds horses. As long as the market is shaped in way which makes it mathematically sound to have a good e/w bet.

 

[Istabraq]

Good debate this.

I gave up with Ante Post betting a year or two after the festival expanded, I thought I had a good one for the Supreme with small cover for the Ballymore and the horse ended up pulling up in the potato race, AP punting then was a lottery so I stopped.
Prior to this I was each way singles only.

I re-started AP punting 6/7 years ago after reading this forum, having been a voyeur for while I enjoyed listening to the views of members and there were so many educated opinions, this and the introduction of the any race markets rekindled my interest.
Free bets have helped too, free bets on short priced horses don't interest me but when you find a few to create a trixie/yankee they have the ability to provide nice returns.

So I now have plenty of AP singles, doubles, trixies and yankee/L15s, amazing how things change....

 

[jono]

I've generally always been a Win Only antepost better - as I was very much of the view of not getting stung twice however last year I moved away from this and bet EW a lot more often. And it was by far my best returning festival. I'll generally limit myself to no more than 2 or 3 runners in the same race (I think I broke this last year in both the 4 Miler (5 runners) and the Albert Bartlett (4 runners) and I certainly won't create a book for a race BUT the feeling of getting the winner and placings in behind is a great great feeling on the day.

I don't have the figures to hand but the each way place returns added up to a decent amount last year and certainly helped make it such a profitable year. I've been lucky to be in profit each year I have done antepost for the festival (5 years) but on some of those years - the difference between profit and loss has come down to one horse so I do feel like it could have easily swung the other way (despite there also being cases where all it took was a neck 2nd etc to return bigger profits)

So going forward i'll be looking to continue with more EW bets where possible and see if it works out.

Price is something I am flexible on. I recently added Tornado Flyer for the Ballymore. At face value 25/1 would seem an EW bet for me at 1/4 odds but the fact that his target is still flexible (Mullins, other stablemates who are flexible in trip, yet to jump a hurdle/ run this season) would usually mean I'd go win only. A big difference and 'game changer' for the last year or so though has been the Bet365 cashout which means that doubt can be offset largely.

Mengli Khan in the Arkle for example makes plenty of sense for me to go EW at 20/1 - as the target is almost all but 'confirmed' (when it comes to antepost) this far out. That's generally my limit when it comes to price though. As soon as a price gets to around the 16/1 price i'll have my reservations in backing eachway, especially if it is 1/5 the odds.

I'm also now more open to the idea of covering a big fancy in a race this season. Last season I was dead set on both Apple's Jade and Cause of Causes winning. Alongside Buveur D'Air they were my biggest fancies and the most heavily backed in both singles and multiples. I primarily had a or some doubts on both Tiger Roll and Benie des Dieux against them but I did like both and at several stages of the year, including close up to the festival they were each way prices that if I had taken, although they wouldn't have offset the outlay on who I backed, would have been some compensation. So I may look to go down this route this season if the same situation arises.

I'd also echo the impact this forum has on your strategy. You can have the most robust reason to not back a horse / back a race etc but many times someone on here will make such a good case which makes it impossible to not back! After each year i'll go through the previous festivals and take a look at races where I may look to either avoid antepost, closer to the festival or certainly until NRNB comes into play. The 4 races I highlighted i'd be avoided were:

Bumper
Fred Winter
Triumph
Albert Bartlett

But have already broken my stance in 3 of those races in Energumene, Carefully Selected and Adjali :disgust:

 

[Scooby91]

I've generally always been a Win Only antepost better - as I was very much of the view of not getting stung twice however last year I moved away from this and bet EW a lot more often. And it was by far my best returning festival. I'll generally limit myself to no more than 2 or 3 runners in the same race (I think I broke this last year in both the 4 Miler (5 runners) and the Albert Bartlett (4 runners) and I certainly won't create a book for a race BUT the feeling of getting the winner and placings in behind is a great great feeling on the day.

I don't have the figures to hand but the each way place returns added up to a decent amount last year and certainly helped make it such a profitable year. I've been lucky to be in profit each year I have done antepost for the festival (5 years) but on some of those years - the difference between profit and loss has come down to one horse so I do feel like it could have easily swung the other way (despite there also being cases where all it took was a neck 2nd etc to return bigger profits)

So going forward i'll be looking to continue with more EW bets where possible and see if it works out.

Price is something I am flexible on. I recently added Tornado Flyer for the Ballymore. At face value 25/1 would seem an EW bet for me at 1/4 odds but the fact that his target is still flexible (Mullins, other stablemates who are flexible in trip, yet to jump a hurdle/ run this season) would usually mean I'd go win only. A big difference and 'game changer' for the last year or so though has been the Bet365 cashout which means that doubt can be offset largely.

Mengli Khan in the Arkle for example makes plenty of sense for me to go EW at 20/1 - as the target is almost all but 'confirmed' (when it comes to antepost) this far out. That's generally my limit when it comes to price though. As soon as a price gets to around the 16/1 price i'll have my reservations in backing eachway, especially if it is 1/5 the odds.

I'm also now more open to the idea of covering a big fancy in a race this season. Last season I was dead set on both Apple's Jade and Cause of Causes winning. Alongside Buveur D'Air they were my biggest fancies and the most heavily backed in both singles and multiples. I primarily had a or some doubts on both Tiger Roll and Benie des Dieux against them but I did like both and at several stages of the year, including close up to the festival they were each way prices that if I had taken, although they wouldn't have offset the outlay on who I backed, would have been some compensation. So I may look to go down this route this season if the same situation arises.

I'd also echo the impact this forum has on your strategy. You can have the most robust reason to not back a horse / back a race etc but many times someone on here will make such a good case which makes it impossible to not back! After each year i'll go through the previous festivals and take a look at races where I may look to either avoid antepost, closer to the festival or certainly until NRNB comes into play. The 4 races I highlighted i'd be avoided were:

Bumper
Fred Winter
Triumph
Albert Bartlett

But have already broken my stance in 3 of those races in Energumene, Carefully Selected and Adjali :disgust:

Good points, I'm deffinately avoiding the bumper , the Albert bartlett. And the Ryanair. And will stick with the novice hurdlers i already have. I deffinately don't want to be building a book on the supreme.

 

[Istabraq]

Each way AP betting on the Arkle is a must, with most renewals being contested by half a dozen the 3 places is value....

 

[Faugheen_Machine]

Win only a/p, because it's hard enough getting horses there, without having double the number of bets on them.

Might sound stupid, but it's important not to be too results orientated when you have a win only bet at a big price, which finishes 2nd at the festival.

I don't mind e/w betting, short or long odds horses. As long as the market is shaped in way which makes it mathematically sound to have a good e/w bet.

You got the nail on the head for me Tim, especially the point on the make up of the race for ew betting.

I only have one ew bet at this stage (Mengli Khan in the Arkle) and this is just because it is the only race I can see targeting, combined with the likely small field and being offered 1/4 odds.

The way bookies have eroded the each way terms over the last few years has only reduced the amount of times I'll bet each way ante post.

 

[jack1092]

Probably fairly pointless for me to give an answer here as i am not a massive antepost punter. I like "anteposts" earlier in a week before a Saturday's racing more than sitting here in November for a race in March but i can see the appeal of trying to land them.

E/W to me is well worth making the most of, especially in races such as the Arkle, often likely to cut up to 8 runners or less and leave you in a nice position. I do see what people say when you have your place part tied up in winning less, and perhaps it could be put towards the "winning more"...but then, you'll lose more bets- i guess it's whatever works for you.

I see a lot of people on here running lots of multiples for the festival, personally i think it's worth doing less of them, but again each to their own!