Arkle 2019

[Scooby91]

Yeah, I've seen they have been trying to get one introduced, but for the life of me can't understand why they go over hurdles against the boys but hold back when it comes to chases at the festival?

Surely with the allowance as well it can't be much different, if they are good enough, anyway?

There's superior money down the mares program. Vroum vroum was there biggest earner the year she just dotted around in mares chases. Picked up €240,000 and diddnt meet a horse of any note

 

[archie]

I've said somewhere else that different owners have different ideas about whether or not they want to send their mares over fences. The 'if she were mine' theory of betting is not a good methodology.

As for Willie's comments, those for a planned interview are much more reliable than those immediately post-race. If someone sticks a microphone in your face when the adrenalin is still going, any comment is far less considered.

I have little doubt that Laurina will start out over hurdles and will carry on as long as they think that she can reach the 160s. The only rider to this is that it's possible that she will be schooled over fences. If she is very good it might make them think twice. It's what happened to Kemboy a year ago. One day he was a potential staying hurdler, the next he was a novice chaser. However, he was only a 142 hurdler and a gelding so the pros and cons were different.

 

[charlie]

I've said somewhere else that different owners have different ideas about whether or not they want to send their mares over fences. The 'if she were mine' theory of betting is not a good methodology.

As for Willie's comments, those for a planned interview are much more reliable than those immediately post-race. If someone sticks a microphone in your face when the adrenalin is still going, any comment is far less considered.

I have little doubt that Laurina will start out over hurdles and will carry on as long as they think that she can reach the 160s. The only rider to this is that it's possible that she will be schooled over fences. If she is very good it might make them think twice. It's what happened to Kemboy a year ago. One day he was a potential staying hurdler, the next he was a novice chaser. However, he was only a 142 hurdler and a gelding so the pros and cons were different.

I disagree re Willie comments because he is so guarded and considered in everything he says. He is a master at answering a question without giving an actual answer and rarely gives anything away. I think it's in moments post race where he is likely to give away more than he would do otherwise.

 

[robith]

I am reminded of Kevin Blake's comment on how cautious Willie is on statements that he will invariably not rule out anything he's asked - so it's always best to check the question he was asked.

"Willie, Douvan - 4 Miler?"

"Hmm. I wouldn't rule it out"

 

[archie]

I disagree re Willie comments because he is so guarded and considered in everything he says. He is a master at answering a question without giving an actual answer and rarely gives anything away. I think it's in moments post race where he is likely to give away more than he would do otherwise.

That would not be my experience so we'll agree to disagree.

 

[jack1092]

Charlie, i'd have to agree with Archie on this to be honest, his post race comments are very little help at all. He is hmm-ing and ha-ing most of the time.

I know this forum is keen to get on some anteposts early and avoid the obvious price crash once Laurina and Co's plans are a lot clearer, but anything can happen in that stable, and every March, the same thing is said by many punters re Mullins and his runners. Douvan come March Cheltenham week, wasn't even 100% certain to be running in a certain race!..

I think part of the issue with Mullins is he likes to have every race covered, and the mares such as VVM aren't certain to win one of the G1 chases, whereas they are fairly likely to show up well in the Mares Hurdle. A wins a win for him. As boring as it might be. Why hasn't Apple's Jade gone chasing, aren't there quite a lot of trainers that don't send their mares chasing?

 

[jono]

What's your thoughts on Paloma blue Jono ?.

I don't think there's much difference between him and MK, as the 1 length difference between the pair in the Supreme points too. Paloma Blue run at Punchestown was very disappointing but it was too bad to be true really and the Supreme run pulling hard on heavy ground could well of taken it's toll on the horse. So i'd be happy to write that run off.

To be honest if he was 20/1 and not 16/1 (or certainly the 25/1 he opened up at in the race) i'd probably back him over MK as a lot of the positives I mentioned could be repeated for both - i've just gone for the bigger price.

 

[Joleg]

Kev, that's deserving of a Nobel prize for literature

 

[jono]

Ruby gives Cilaos Emery a mention today in his PP column (along with Draconian who he name checks for the Arkle, Getabird and Next Destination who he is most excited about for his novice chasers) so you'd assume all is well with the horse which is a good sign :encouragement:

The jockey also has high hopes for Getabird, though he is unsure about what the Rich Ricci-owned six-year-old's optimum distance might be.

"What his trip will be over fences, I don't know," said Walsh.

"He's an ex-bumper horse so he could be open to go up in trip, but he has pace so he's not pigeon-hold into going one department. He has a lot of ability and he's an exciting one to have."

Draconien and Cilaos Emery are among others Walsh expects to make their mark.

"Draconien is a stronger horse this year and more mature," he said.

"He's got a lot of speed and he could be an exciting two-mile novice chaser. Long term, he could be an Arkle horse.

"There wasn't much between Cilaos Emery and Melon and we saw the progress Melon made last year.

"Hopefully Cilaos Emery can do the same this year."

 

[jack1092]

Interesting Jono, hopefully he goes chasing!!

 

[Viking Flagship]

Just saw this too Jono. I don't know what it is but I can't have Draconien for this. It takes a classy animal to win an Arkle and I don't think popping up at 25/1 as Mullins 4th string in a race in which many were past their peak for the season is enough justification to think he's up to that level.

Looks like chasing is def the plan for Cilaos Emery Jack as the article was seemingly about the novice chasers. I think this mention might be enough to convince me to have a nibble at the 20s with B365 now his wellbeing is apparently confirmed.

 

[Garrison Savannah]

Not sure whether this will be of interest but instead of 20s with b365, you could take 25s any Race with Ladbrokes (before boost)

 

[Viking Flagship]

Cheers GS, hadn't spotted that. Now need to weigh up the benefit of potential cash-out against potential benefit of still having a live bet if he runs in a different race! I think the 25s any race wins that one.

 

[Scooby91]

Not sure whether this will be of interest but instead of 20s with b365, you could take 25s any Race with Ladbrokes (before boost)

2nd this. 28s with boost. Just gone back in as that's the one of been waiting to top up on

 

[Scooby91]

Just saw this too Jono. I don't know what it is but I can't have Draconien for this. It takes a classy animal to win an Arkle and I don't think popping up at 25/1 as Mullins 4th string in a race in which many were past their peak for the season is enough justification to think he's up to that level.

Looks like chasing is def the plan for Cilaos Emery Jack as the article was seemingly about the novice chasers. I think this mention might be enough to convince me to have a nibble at the 20s with B365 now his wellbeing is apparently confirmed.

Draconien was gifted that race mengli khan and vision des flos did the donkey work and thought they were fighting it out between them. He is an excellent jumper of a hurdle though despite his 1 fall.

 

[Quevega]

Re - Draconien.
If Willie Mullins thinks Draconien is potentially arkle bound, and Ruby says as much, then that should be enough for any of us.
They simply have an excellent guage as to what is required as they have been there and done it.
They aren't some stable with one or two stable stars, they have a plethora of horses to target at the Festival.
The same applies to anyone who doubts Laurina's potential. Willie's trained some of the greatest mares in the history of racing and must be able to see what he's got in front of him.
Of course he will be wrong sometimes, but the percentage call is with him I reckon.
And that's me putting the case forward for a flat bred !!

 

[Scooby91]

Re - Draconien.
If Willie Mullins thinks Draconien is potentially arkle bound, and Ruby says as much, then that should be enough for any of us.
They simply have an excellent guage as to what is required as they have been there and done it.
They aren't some stable with one or two stable stars, they have a plethora of horses to target at the Festival.
The same applies to anyone who doubts Laurina's potential. Willie's trained some of the greatest mares in the history of racing and must be able to see what he's got in front of him.
Of course he will be wrong sometimes, but the percentage call is with him I reckon.
And that's me putting the case forward for a flat bred !!

I haven't personally backed either.
Draconien I mentioned above and laurina has hosed up in races that mean nothing in comparison to the champion hurdle , if they go and win so be it. Iv been wrong before,ie presenting percy, but you have to back your own judgement rather than what mullins/ ruby has said is arkle / CH bound. He diddnt mention footpad once before his 1st start last season. I only knew he was chasing because simon munir is generous with hs time and replied to me on Twitter

 

[robith]

Is Slate House going chasing? I know a few of us were keen on him for the Supreme, and I've noticed he's still 50s with Bill Hill

 

[Kevloaf]

The Mullins stable tour is usually towards the end of October which fits in with the winter horses coming back in around Galway time.

I've never really felt the love for Mengli Khan and Paloma Blue. End of season form makes Draconien an interesting project but I don't have a clue which path he will take.

First mention of Draconien was here by archie, our mole doing the business

I ended up posting about him in the any race thread at 20s, initially looking at him as a dark one for the CHampion Hurdle, before thinking 20s may be worthwhile any race if he became a County Hurdle player!:very_drunk: (Thank goodness any race includes any code)

Draconien attacked his hurdles when he won the Herald Champion Novice Hurdle at Punchestown and Ruby is hopeful he will do the same over fences: “He’s a stronger horse this year and more mature. He’s got a lot of speed and he could be an exciting two-mile novice chaser. Long term, he could be an Arkle horse.”

I do agree that if the target has been mentioned at this stage it should be given at least a second thought, and 25/1 is a big price for a Mullins Grade 1 winning hurdler when we now know he is going chasing isn't it? trip doesn't look in much doubt either.

 

[Scooby91]

First mention of Draconien was here by archie, our mole doing the business

I ended up posting about him in the any race thread at 20s, initially looking at him as a dark one for the CHampion Hurdle, before thinking 20s may be worthwhile any race if he became a County Hurdle player!:very_drunk: (Thank goodness any race includes any code)

I do agree that if the target has been mentioned at this stage it shoul be given at least a second thought, and 25/1 is a big price for a Mullins Grade 1 winning hurdler when we now know he is going chasing isn't it? when 2 miles looks his trip too....

Do you think draconien would beat beat getabird and cilaos emery in a 3 horse race over 2m where they ran to there merits?

Getabird 20/1 smashed him up at fairyhouse with an uncontested lead and then got hassled for the pace at punchestown where everything else up front cut there own throats trying to beat getabird. And Noel just had him sat at the back waiting to pick up the pieces and come through.

And cilaos emery 28/1 is a solid unexposed graded horse. Closely matched with Mick jazz. Bringing proper form to the table. And looks all over a 2m chaser.