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Cheltenham 2019 Ante-Post bets

Rhinestone_Cowboy said:
Yeah noticed the Ladbrokes Trophy prices had gone after I posted it - looks like he has a decent following on twitter
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I think he must lurk on here. Nearly all of the Cheltenham horses have had good mentions on this forum. :devilish:
 
ComplyOrDie said:
Have today added Kilbricken Storm (25/1) as my first bet in the NH Chase. 2 from 2 at Cheltenham including the Albert Bartlett this year.

Almost the same sort of set up to both Native River & Elegant Escape, although the latter not quite on the same level as the former. NR went on to place in the NH Chase, whilst EE finished a distant 3rd in the RSA this year, neither of whom were as effective at the festival over hurdles, whereas KS went on to win at a big price, staying on really well at the finish.

I think after EE in the RSA this season that Tizzard will revert back to the NH chase with his best staying novice this season and l think that is KS.

I do like a couple of others for the race but currently no prices up on them yet.
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I don't think Tizzard will see 3rd in the RSA as a reason to divert away from that race with his best staying novice CoD.

Tizzard has shown a very direct approach in his training and placing of horses.... Elegant Escape was ideal for the 4 miler... and still didn't run in it.

Finian's Oscar was an obvious candidate for the JLT and he went 2m, then 3m, then hurdling before eventually beiong forced to run in the correct race.

I'd look for a "any race" price... I think WH are 25/1?
 
Kalashnikov very popular for the Arkle today, target confirmed?
 
Innoko said:
Kalashnikov very popular for the Arkle today, target confirmed?
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0% chance the target is confirmed 6 months in advance. He hasn't jumped a fence in public yet.

A bet of less than £3000 would move the market to the extent imo
 
I haven't bought it but I know Paul Ferguson's book is out today. Probably gets a good mention in that
 
Faugheen_Machine said:
I haven't bought it but I know Paul Ferguson's book is out today. Probably gets a good mention in that
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Excellent point... unless of course it was your 3k :p

Out of interest, do you see him being aimed here?
 
Just phoned a mate who bought it and he says the Arkle gets a mention as a target (although I think this will be PF opinion). He's 8/1 in the w.a.r market and I'd take that rather than 10/1 for the Arkle.

It'll be between the Arkle and JLT if he takes to fences. I hope it's JLT but that's just pocket talk :devilish:. I love the horse and think he can go to the top.
 
Faugheen_Machine said:
Just phoned a mate who bought it and he says the Arkle gets a mention as a target (although I think this will be PF opinion). He's 8/1 in the w.a.r market and I'd take that rather than 10/1 for the Arkle.

It'll be between the Arkle and JLT if he takes to fences. I hope it's JLT but that's just pocket talk :devilish:. I love the horse and think he can go to the top.
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I suspect you are probably right that the gamble is linked to PF's book. In the digital version (only) there is an ante-post preview section where PF advises two horses for Cheltenham: Kalshnikov E/W at 14s for the Arkle and On the Blind Side for the RSA at 20s. Interestingly no movement on the latter today, but maybe Kalsahnikov went blue as it was first cut by Paddy's who were standout best price and appear to cut quite quickly when a bit of money comes. That in turn triggered the gamble across the board. Haven't had a chance to have a proper read yet, but doesn't look as though there has been any confirmation on Kalashnikov'es target. I already have a bit on both the Arkle and JLT and will likely top up with the 8.5 (Hills price boost) any race as you suggest.
 
I'm quite interested in Slate House again this year.

After he beat Summerville Boy at Cheltenham in Nov last year this is what was reported:

Tizzard said: "He's by Presenting so we were concerned about the going, but he handled it fine.

"It looked like he'd stay further. The favourite (Dame De Compagnie) obviously didn't run its race, but this is a nice, young horse. He's learning his way and is not a world-beater yet, but he's done nothing wrong.

"We now know he's not ground dependent and it looks like he stayed on well, so a fast-run two miles might be ideal. He's a gorgeous-looking horse and has done nothing wrong. We'll have to mind him."

"I thought, 'This lad's a three-mile point-to-pointer', so rather than wrestle him I let him bowl on and do it himself, which wasn't really what I had had in my head, but he bowled away lovely, winged the last and we turned in and there were flags and whistles as we bypassed the [dolled off] hurdles.

"For a horse only having his second run on a proper racetrack, it was a little bit for him to think about it, and he idled a bit in front. He's quite a sensitive horse and it wasn't ideal when I was trying to get him going forward. But when one came to him he picked up nicely. He's a nice horse.

"I'd say he's a very smart horse. I don't know how far he's going to go, but he's won a Grade Two and I'd say he's won it comfortably. He'll probably end up wanting three miles and fences one day, but he's a lovely prospect."


He is only quoted at 50/1 at the moment in the Arkle market, nothing in the RSA and not in the JLT. One I am going to keep my eye on.
 
One horse I would be interested in is Champ by Henderson although I backed Vindication the same day I was so impressed by the way this horse travelled and didn't expect him to win after a long lay off, that race was in mid Jan and Nicky held onto his novice status for the season.

He hasn't looked a superstar in both runs this season but I think he will improve for running against better horses, I'd imagine Ballymore would probably be the race for him if he is good enough, but I could also see him popping up in the Betfair Hurdle ala Tent and going down the Supreme route, what do ye think?
 
Also I believe other than Samcro that Getabird was probably the best novice around last season. I'd love to know what Willie's plan for him is.
 
Folski said:
Also I believe other than Samcro that Getabird was probably the best novice around last season. I'd love to know what Willie's plan for him is.
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The fact that he underperformed at Cheltenham and Punchestown is enough to put me off him until I see him again, preferably going left handed.
 
See Hills have taken a strong position on Samcro staying over Hurdles, 4/1 the CH and pushed out in all novice chases including 7/1 for the JLT...interesting
 
Rhinestone_Cowboy said:
See Hills have taken a strong position on Samcro staying over Hurdles, 4/1 the CH and pushed out in all novice chases including 7/1 for the JLT...interesting
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The 8/1 for Samcro Champion Hurdle with Boylesports is gone, 5/1 now.
 
Rhinestone_Cowboy said:
See Hills have taken a strong position on Samcro staying over Hurdles, 4/1 the CH and pushed out in all novice chases including 7/1 for the JLT...interesting
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On the face of it yes, but they also have him 4/1 for the Arkle (industry shortest) but are best priced about the horse for JLT and RSA.
They appear to have taken a strong view that he won't be tried over further than 2m...
 
Still showing as 8/1 with Boyles on oddschecker at the moment but the price is changing every 10-15 mins
 
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