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2019 festival ante post yankees

MrMcGoldrick

MrMcGoldrick

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Ok guys n gals, 1 per month, possibly on the first of each month, gives us a month to debate each one. Not so for the first one though, will need ideas over the weekend, get the first one on the board by the 1st April, sound ok?
 
Footpad - Ryanair - 10/1
Blow by Blow - RSA - 25/1
Annamix - Supreme - 16/1
Penhill - Stayers - 6/1

Recognise that is 3 Mullins horses, but I think Annamix and Penhill will be nailed on, they talk of Footpad being a gold cup horse but I could see them doing it gradually ala Cue Card, and I don’t think Samcro goes RSA.

A £1 e/way new pays £43k on betfair
 
Having dismissed the horse as an OK handicapper all Winter I'm now sold on Presenting Percy's Gold Cup crudentials and whilst 6/1 doesn't represent massive value the blue ribband has to be his target, and as we know, finding a horses target is a major obstacle to overcome....
 
I'll put buveur d'air up as a selection for next year's champion hurdle @7/2. The target is certain and I'm expecting an improved performance at Aintree as I suspect he was undercooked at Cheltenham. If I'm right, the 7/2 will soon disappear after Aintree.
 
Just for info, the odds on the four championship winners retaining has been cut to a best priced 493/1
 
Personally, I don't think I can justify selecting(backing) a horse without a definite target this early on. The prices just aren't big and juicy enough for that IMO. That'd rule out Footpad in any race at the moment. He could end up in the Ryanair but there are better 10/1 considering the OBVIOUS route is the CC, and the target that HAS been mentioned is the Gold Cup.
 
Santini 16/1 for the RSA I'll pop forward?

He's held in very high regard by Nicky. Has a good level of form already. WAsn't experienced enough to win an Albert BArtlett and I think that showed and he ran very well in light of that. (If) He goes on to be a better chaser than hurdler (which by all accounts and visual clues) would be the case... then the target looks obvious and trainer, jockey etc etc all positives by next March.

I wouldn't fancy him to beat Samcro however the markets disagree with me about Samcro's likely target and I think he'd be in the mix.
 
Istabraq said:
Having dismissed the horse as an OK handicapper all Winter I'm now sold on Presenting Percy's Gold Cup crudentials and whilst 6/1 doesn't represent massive value the blue ribband has to be his target, and as we know, finding a horses target is a major obstacle to overcome....
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No arguement at all from me with either of these. Happy to have already got Percy on-board and won't be leaving the bandwagon at any stage unless things go horribly wrong for him!

The only thing that MIGHT be the case, is Monalee is actually rubbish, and the RSA form turns out to be absolutely worthless... HOWEVER, that looks incredibly unlikely the way the season and race panned out. No chinks.

6/1 isn't a big price but the target is 100% so it is only 'soundness' rather than 'soundness and target'.

Faugheen_Machine said:
I'll put buveur d'air up as a selection for next year's champion hurdle @7/2. The target is certain and I'm expecting an improved performance at Aintree as I suspect he was undercooked at Cheltenham. If I'm right, the 7/2 will soon disappear after Aintree.
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I keep thinking about Buveur D'air and Melon's improvement. BVD I feel is more vulnerable now but then again he's now a dual champion hurdler and for all that Melon "gave him a scare"... he still beat him. Melon isn't sure to improve again, and as FM says, BVD might well have been under cooked and put in a superb performance at Aintree. Either way, he's going to be fav for the CH next season unless Summerville Boy turns up and beats him which I can't see happening on route to the festival.

Price isn't big, but that doesn't mean it can't be good value.
 
Fair play for sorting this Mr McGoldrick.

I’ll be around over the year to help out if anything’s needed.

For me, Might Bite at 7/1 Gold Cup is a good bet. Monalee 14s is another good bet for the Ryanair. Samcro any race Hills 5/2 is huge but not really for this.

With the Ryanair looking a tough race, I nominate Might Bite at 7/1 for this first Yankee. I feel I owe something to the forum after being convinced by many on here on The Storyteller but Burning Ambition failing to do the business for me after raving all winter about him.
 
Seeing as we look like doing the chanpionship races, I’d fancy at this stage Next Destination if he went Stayers, Samcro would beat Buveur D’air if he run, Altior will win if fit and I like Might Bite in the Gold Cup.

Only the latter two would I be willing to put up for this. Would be nice to get a couple of the doubtful runners at this stage at huge prices turn up so I’d be tempted to throw ND and Samcro in for the championship races. Nobody at this stage puts big cash bet multiples on realistically so it’s orobably worth a fiver in the hope they all turn up.

Either way, I like this thread already and if we can get five of the Yankees where all four turn up, that would be brilliant.
 
Great stuff lads, so if we do the first one based on the championship races given that 1st April isn't far off, does that seem the best way to start, if so it looks like there are one or two popular ones already, let's get a couple down and kick it around, here goes.
Gold cup Presenting Percy/Mite bite
Champ hurdle BVD
Stayers Penhill
QM Altior?

Some great suggestions already for other races, so maybe from 2nd April we narrow down other races to concentrate on for the following month, we can do 2 per month if we want, maybe one a bit more speculative, that can be decided at a later date though
 
Even at this stage I think Altior at 6/4 is one that just has to be in multiples.

He’s almost definitely gonna run here, is proven over track and trip and beat most of next years opposition (You would imagine) magnificently this year. Hard to see past him and it’s somewhat hard to overlook him
 
Middle_Of_March said:
Even at this stage I think Altior at 6/4 is one that just has to be in multiples.

He’s almost definitely gonna run here, is proven over track and trip and beat most of next years opposition (You would imagine) magnificently this year. Hard to see past him and it’s somewhat hard to overlook him
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Yeh, I agree with all that. He's just definitely the one to beat.
Even if we knew Footpad was going for the race... Footpad would still need to improve on what we've seen!
(Through no fault of FOotpad's) he's not been able to actually put in a true runningyet either. When PM was having his first run back he had an advantage and SC/PM went too quick on the Arkle, somewhat exaggerating the winning margin (untiul proven otherwise).... so I'd have Altior all day. Not original, as he's 6/4... but is true?
 
I have to agree with above
QMCC - alitor, looked great given it was only the second run back. With a solid season under the belt, I think it will be untouchable.
GC - I think mite bite will have learnt a lot, I would expect him to get ground preferences so on that note I think he wins
Stayers - I like what penhill achieved but I am not confident he produces again, given some flat races are in mind. Tough one here but maybe one of the youngsters of this year could step up but it’s a big ask
CH - I think BVD is beatable, I think BVD has won in style and impressively in most races but I would not be confident for a triple winner. Aintree as mentioned will be a good indicator
 
thistlecracker said:
GC - I think mite bite will have learnt a lot, I would expect him to get ground preferences so on that note I think he wins
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I'll go along with that as long as this years race hasn't emptied him.
If it came up deep again he'd get pulled I think, so his participation is very ground dependent and whilst I will have something on him between now and March 2019 I don't think he is value at this stage whereas we know Percy goes on any ground and have to assume his will stay
 
I know I've banged on about this before but, 11 months ahead of time, no horse can be considered value in single figures and 6/4 is about the odds I'd want for any horse even turning up.
Every year the bookies offer odds about the 4 major champions defending their crown and every year you're lucky to see more than one succeed.

However, this is a great thread for discussion and argument and everyone can and should go their own way.
 
Altoir in the QMCC must surely go in an acca.. it’s the only race I can see where literally nothing can beat him? He even proved this year that he could win it with a less than perfect prep.. no history of injury and target 100% assured.. it’s literally like a savings account for 12 months
 
I'm all for these yankees mainly for fun ...

In terms of serious bets archie is absolutely right.

6/4 is value (or not) whether it's a single or a multiple. If you wouldn't place the single you SHOULDN'T place it on the multiple is a pretty sensible rule that I try to stick to.

To back up archies point. If Altior's 'puss' happened 24 or 48 hours later, he wouldn't be the Champion Chaser... so 6/4 isn't value now. Albeit he'd likely to be shorter.

HOWEVER I would still have no problem including him in this yankee despite the above:highly_amused:
 
Istabraq said:
I'll go along with that as long as this years race hasn't emptied him.
If it came up deep again he'd get pulled I think, so his participation is very ground dependent and whilst I will have something on him between now and March 2019 I don't think he is value at this stage whereas we know Percy goes on any ground and have to assume his will stay
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Ive also got concearns with might bite turning 10 next year..think cool dawn was the last 10yr to win a gold cup?
 
Kevloaf said:
To back up archies point. If Altior's 'puss' happened 24 or 48 hours later, he wouldn't be the Champion Chaser... so 6/4 isn't value now. Albeit he'd likely to be shorter.
:
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Much was made of Altiors ‘lameness’ but, not sure I mentioned this, the preview eve I went to on the Monday, the day the news broke, Jerry McGrath said they were concered for about 15 mins but as soon as the vet and farrier had taken a look his participation was never in doubt.
He never missed a minutes work since he hit full training and even cantered on Tuesday morning, so I think what we saw was a 100% Altior and let’s be honest, if that wasn’t a 100% Altior then he’ll be a scary horse next year....
 
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