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Daily movers

MrMcGoldrick

MrMcGoldrick

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With a view to those looking for opportunities away from the fez, and Saturday meetings, I thought it might be good to have a thread where market movers can be noted. A bit late really as yesterday a horse called Heluvagood won the 4.35 at Chepstow at 5/1 I noticed movement in the market the night before when the first show was 25/1, it had already started moving but I got on at 14's, it would be nice to be able to alert other forum members of these things, 14's is the same payout at Chepstow as at the fez after all
 
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Looking at today Fizzlestix has halved in price, and it's been a fairly steady stream, trained by C Gordon and ridden by James Bowen, so all the help it needs from the saddle. It will be interesting to see how it gets on in the 3.05 at Newbury
 
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Pulled out at the start, never less than 4/1 until 3 or 4 minutes before the off when he was chopped in to 7/2 by the bookies, obviously when they knew he would be scratched, possibly a slightly larger rule 4, another regular scam that tends to go under the radar
 
I like this Mr M.

You often find the first price is a rick, the market might be 8/1 but one firm go 12/1, realise the error and correct the price, so only worth considering the general prices available.

Also, with the modern world of trading for a living there are plunges on horses every day into short prices who then drift near the off as traders take profits, so caution is needed, many of these plunges are professional operations who put up orders that scare the machines and set rumours running to shorten the price
 
True isty, you have to be careful, I tend to look for those that have a steady flow of money, particularly smaller stables running something in a small field. I like the Bowen operation and have been following it for a while, the two brothers are excellent riders and I particularly like the way they don't readily give up, another angle I've utilised, with Sean in particular, is watching the in running market, a few times his mount will drift out to 20's plus, only for it to then come back into the fray and quite often win. This is a trend I only really noticed around January but has thrown up some significant opportunities.
 
On the subject of in running the first race at Bangor was a near perfect example of what I was saying about Sean Bowen, his mount Cruising Bye lost ground and drifted, on bet365, to 40/1, then because he didn't stop pushing, the horse got back up to within half a length of the winner, traded a shade of odds on approaching the last, massive opportunities these, you just need the right jockey, waste of time with the Geraghtys of this world
 
2 for money in the 5.25 at Naas, Bobby Joe, 7/1 into 2/1 and Caffe Machiato 8/1 into 9/2, also Poorman hill seen plenty in the Kerry national at Downpatrick
 
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Couple of really interesting ones for tomorrow, Zen Master for Charlie Mann Taunton 2.50, and Caviar D'allen in the next for Cristian Williams, Dennis O'Regan jocked up on both and early money too.
 
Zen master finished 2nd by a neck, Caviar D'Allen looked threatening but weakened around 3 out and finished well beaten, the 3 on Sunday did pretty well, the 2 in the same race finished 1st and 4th, whilst Poormans hill ran out a ready winner of the Kerry national, not doing bad at all, only problem is that I seem to be talking to myself. Just to note that these are not ones that are appearing in the market movers on atr etc, these are night before moves that I would assess are doing so with connections money, they seem to drift back out nearer the off leading to better than expected sp's, I guess I'll just have to keep backing them myself
 
It's very difficult to generalise, MrMcG. I don't bet on my own but there are many theories about when you should bet if you have inside information.
As an example, Poly Rock ran last week over 3 years after coming into training. Given that Willie had kept the faith and his record with long term absentees, we were hopeful after his declaration and he was 4/6 the day before. Drifted like a barge on the day, started 5/2 and won as he liked.
 
I find the gambles in the evening interesting archie, difficult to see how something with little or no decent form can halve then quarter in price unless connections are getting their money down. What you say about the one being backed down then drifting towards race time but running well is a pattern I'm seeing often. One that seems to be developing tomorrow is Marvellous Monty, He 4.15, J Farrelly/R Johnson, currently 7/1, will keep an eye on it
 
The money didn't continue on Marvellous Monty, nothing else was moving seriously last night, some this morning, partially because of non runners I reckon, but that's not the kind of thing I'm trying to highlight, they will appear on the market movers lists, so no qualifiers today.
 
After drifting back out the gamble resumed this afternoon on MM, will just see how it goes without backing it, 10/1>5/1 as I write
 
Big priced one tomoz, Desilvano Warwick 3.50, 40>25>16, worth keeping an eye on.
Also Literale ci Winc 3.05, more than halved in price, J P McManus horse
 
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Checked this out last night and 33s was still available so paid no attention

Now best priced 12s!

Had a 0.5U play just in case you are on to something
 
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