Cheltenham 2019 Ante-Post bets

[Welshman]

I don't think they have decided what Samcro will be aimed at next year and why should they? It's 12 months off!.However if Gorden asks for my advice...If you believe he is a future Gold Cup horse then aim him at the Arkle. That would result in 3 or 4 runs next season all races will be smallish fields at around 2 miles then the following season try him over longer distances or if he is outstanding champion chase as back up

 

[Scooby91]

The other option is to wait for connections to have their serious punt on Samcro for a specific race as they did last year around a week before his first race when he was cut from 16s to 8s with PP for the Ballymore (and then everywhere else over the course of the day). His price went pretty quick that day but if you are on the ball should still be able to get a decent price if that gamble is replicated. It would also give me the confidence that he can jump a fence.

No chance id take any price on him now for next year. There's always a point where the exchanges flip flop on targets anyway and go back to how it was. And he hasn't even jumped a fence yet to be 4/1. I'd rather miss the price than go in as short as that a year out.

 

[ComplyOrDie]

No chance id take any price on him now for next year. There's always a point where the exchanges flip flop on targets anyway and go back to how it was. And he hasn't even jumped a fence yet to be 4/1. I'd rather miss the price than go in as short as that a year out.

Scooby, when do you start with your exchange bets for the festival?

 

[Scooby91]

Scooby, when do you start with your exchange bets for the festival?

Usually end of October. As i can add horse to the market selectively and usually get some huge prices at small stakes

 

[archie]

3 of them did go off favourite.

Buveur D'air wasn't double figures either ...
AJ went off odds on (I'd consider that good value despite her not winning)
CoC was 10/1. pulled up lame.
Samcro was 16/1

Im not saying Samcro is a good bet at 8/1 ... I'm saying I think he'll run in the RSA.

You're correct about the 3 favourites, of course.

My main point though is that, if connections haven't made up their mind and in all likelihood won't until October, you're tying up money for 6 months in which time it's unlikely that the price will move significantly. With free bets and/or long prices this is fine especially if it fits your betting strategy but it simply isn't for me based on my experiences over a good number of years.
Every year is slightly different and everyone is old (and, no doubt, ugly) enough to go their own way but taking early (ie before a horse has reappeared) single figure prices isn't for me. A couple of examples:
Buveur D'Air was a best price of 5/1 in November.
Our Duke was a fairly skinny price before his first race of the season and went out to something like 25/1.

For sure Samcro backers got a good price this time but those who were in individual race markets had 6 months of will he, won't he and it will be exactly the same this time. Ditto Footpad. Until he, Min, Douvan and, maybe, UDS are back in full training there will be little serious discussion about Cheltenham targets and no meaningful clues until the Tingle Creek.

 

[Folski]

You're correct about the 3 favourites, of course.

My main point though is that, if connections haven't made up their mind and in all likelihood won't until October, you're tying up money for 6 months in which time it's unlikely that the price will move significantly. With free bets and/or long prices this is fine especially if it fits your betting strategy but it simply isn't for me based on my experiences over a good number of years.
Every year is slightly different and everyone is old (and, no doubt, ugly) enough to go their own way but taking early (ie before a horse has reappeared) single figure prices isn't for me. A couple of examples:
Buveur D'Air was a best price of 5/1 in November.
Our Duke was a fairly skinny price before his first race of the season and went out to something like 25/1.

For sure Samcro backers got a good price this time but those who were in individual race markets had 6 months of will he, won't he and it will be exactly the same this time. Ditto Footpad. Until he, Min, Douvan and, maybe, UDS are back in full training there will be little serious discussion about Cheltenham targets and no meaningful clues until the Tingle Creek.

Ricci has stated Douvan will be going to the King George all being well, if he was mine I'd have my crack at Altior in the Tingle Creek, then go King George and Gold Cup all being well. 25/1 for Gold Cup is huge.

UDS in my opinion is done, they might win some mickey mouse races with him in Ireland but at true grade 1 level he is done, I've been very unimpressed with his last 2 runs and won a nice bit on laying him in running in the Ryanair.

Min can't beat Altior, the Ryanair is there for the taking if they want it, it's by far the weakest division.

Footpad would be mad to go for the Gold Cup considering how far he was smashed over 3m at Punchestown at end of last season. Can he beat Altior, probably not but he deserves a try.

 

[archie]

Mullins Bingo 51 weeks in advance?

Ricci can say what he likes (and it's likely the truth as he sees it today) but I can guarantee you that my last sentence in the quote is the way it is. For what it's worth, if he was fit I'd go Tingle Creek, KG and Gold Cup with Douvan as well but everyone at Closutton is concentrating on Fairyhouse and Punchestown at the moment and after that it will be the summer festivals. No chance that there will be any programme drawn up until they're back in full work in the autumn.

 

[Folski]

Mullins Bingo 51 weeks in advance?

Ricci can say what he likes (and it's likely the truth as he sees it today) but I can guarantee you that my last sentence in the quote is the way it is. For what it's worth, if he was fit I'd go Tingle Creek, KG and Gold Cup with Douvan as well but everyone at Closutton is concentrating on Fairyhouse and Punchestown at the moment and after that it will be the summer festivals. No chance that there will be any programme drawn up until they're back in full work in the autumn.

I understand that completely.

The above were where I see the horses going but it hard to gauge what Mullins thinks, this time last year we'd all have been saying Melon to the Arkle and Yorkhill to the Gold Cup.

 

[Marty973]

Is everyone of the opinion that Laurina will stick to hurdles for next year then? Every quote from the yard seems to refer to her size and that she ‘could jump a fence’. Another year over hurdles then fences after?

 

[Scooby91]

Is everyone of the opinion that Laurina will stick to hurdles for next year then? Every quote from the yard seems to refer to her size and that she ‘could jump a fence’. Another year over hurdles then fences after?

If she's sound she will be in the mares hurdle imo. The route she goes before that is anyone's guess. If they stepped her up in class she might go for the hattons Grace with her allowance, all Depends how ambitious they are, As There's a generous mares programme with her name written all over it. Over both codes.

 

[jono]

Is everyone of the opinion that Laurina will stick to hurdles for next year then? Every quote from the yard seems to refer to her size and that she ‘could jump a fence’. Another year over hurdles then fences after?

It wouldn't surprise me in the slightest if she starts off over fences next year but if she does I imagine it will be in Mares only chases and we've seen with VVM and Benie Des Dieux that there seems to be certain degree of reluctance pitching them into chases against the boys. So I would expect them to revert her back to the Mares Hurdle come the festival if they go start off chasing (something which has been no problem for them as per the above mentioned horses doing the same).

On the other hand Mullins doesn't seem to have many obvious options for the mares race at this point (unlike previous years) unless they look to retain it with Benie so it would appear to be the obvious race for her.

I also think there was a degree of politics in the chasing quotes with him laying down the foundations and putting his vote across for the Mares Chase to be introduced at the festival in the next few years. A race in which he will in all likelihood mop up.

 

[ComplyOrDie]

Is everyone of the opinion that Laurina will stick to hurdles for next year then? Every quote from the yard seems to refer to her size and that she ‘could jump a fence’. Another year over hurdles then fences after?

I put her and talk about her in the same breath as Samcro, the ultimate 'could be anything' bracket.

Honestly don't know with regards to targets, personally I'd love to see her stay over hurdles, but chasing of course has been mentioned too. I think she will be one of the 'wins' wherever she goes type of bets for me, and although she is no price in the 'Any Race' market it would be something I'd still rather take than guessing the race for her.

 

[Marty973]

Thanks Scooby, Jono and COD. I'm new to getting involved early in comparison to most of you so it's all very helpful.

 

[ComplyOrDie]

I think the Mullins monopoly on the Mares' Novice Hurdle could be broken next year, I can't wait to see Daphne Du Clos come out over hurdles, a half sister to Laurina and in the same colours, expect her to be a massive player.

 

[Scooby91]

I think the Mullins monopoly on the Mares' Novice Hurdle could be broken next year, I can't wait to see Daphne Du Clos come out over hurdles, a half sister to Laurina and in the same colours, expect her to be a massive player.

He's got plenty for it, Jared sullivan alone has
Don't hesitate.
Holiday winner
Chante niege

All with Willie.

Add in the champion bumper winner
Salsaretta.
Colreevy.

Has a very strong hand.

 

[ComplyOrDie]

He's got plenty for it, Jared sullivan alone has
Don't hesitate.
Holiday winner
Chante niege

All with Willie.

Add in the champion bumper winner
Salsaretta.
Colreevy.

Has a very strong hand.

You're not wrong, and it's something I think we all come to expect, but I do honestly feel DDC may prove to be a new challenge for his lot next year. Of course, as with all this debate currently we are a LONG way from being there again, so many things can change, but this current moment in time I have my sights set firmly on DDC

 

[filthyewaypunter]

First post on the forum and chuffed to see I'm not the only one who loves an antepost punt!

Samcro the big talking point it appears so I will weigh in with my tuppance worth on him... I believe he will go RSA, working up slowly in distance on the run up to the Festival as suggested earlier in the thread. I'm taking this view mainly on the expected going with it surely not being as soft as it was this year. 3m on good to soft will be right up his street in my opinion and 10/1 seems reasonable. No race will be a gimme but wherever he turns up he will scare off some of the opposition although I would expect Black Op to make a race of it because that one really does look an out and out stayer.

In the Supreme I have sided with last years talking horse Annamix (16/1) as nothing from this edition of the Bumper really impressed me. Blackbow could be the one to take from the race but other than that I think the quality was on a par wth the 2017 running - not that great. Special mention to Envoi Allen and Dlauro purely based on their price tags and performances in P2P's but they could end up anywhere so with that in mind Annamix looks the 'safe' option to me.

For the Champion Hurdle I really fancy the chances of Summerville Boy (20/1). Tom George has suggested the plan is to remain over the smaller obstacles and if he can iron out the errors he will give BVD something to think about next season because this is a really weak division at the moment.

Bit of buzz on Twitter for Chante Neige (12/1) for the Mares Novice. Shot in the dark tbh but has apparently been given time off to strengthen up since going to Mullins last year. Will no doubt sluice up in a weak race and go off odds-on next year.

The Gold Cup will be all about Presenting Percy (6/1) for me. So impressive in the RSA this year and I believe it will take a very good animal to stop him at the course he loves. I think the GC this year will have taken the edge off Native River and with Might Bite becoming a 10 yr old I think they have missed their chance with him.

I have no idea where they will go with Footpad. Mullins suggesting stepping up in trip (desperate to win a GC) but he looks every inch a solid Champion Chase contender although has some stepping up to do in order to worry Altior. Monalee looks like he would enjoy the RyanAir and could possibly meet Petit Mouchoir if that one was stepped up in trip.

All-in-all, lots of discussion to be had and money to waste but only 357 days to go!

 

[Middle_Of_March]

For me:
1) JLT
2) RSA
3) Champion Hurdle
4) Arkle
5) Champion Chase
6) Gold Cup



Would be stunned if he goes anywhere but the JLT or RSA. Took the 5/2 any race already and when September wins the Oaks in June, I’ll be sticking a chunk more on him at 5/2 any race.

 

[Kevloaf]

I wouldn't knock that I'd see it as.
1. JLT
2. Arkle
3. Rsa
4. CH


Death duty was there best novive this season no doubt. And I'd be certain he'd have gone jlt. Even though I personally thought he was an rsa horse. And he dosent have the pace of samcro.

I don't even think he'll run over 3 miles before or at chelt next season tbh. I see no reason why he won't go the same route as death duty.

Death Duty ran and Elliott came out and said he got him wrong and he isn't a 3 miler.

That implies they thought he was a 3 miler in the first place.

If they DO take the death Duty route he'll end up RSA unless he doesn't stay ... like Death Duty .


***just seen there are 4 pages of comments so ignore this for now

 

[filthyewaypunter]

...when September wins the Oaks in June, I’ll be sticking a chunk more on him at 5/2 any race.

Not a huge fan of flat racing but I fancy Contingent (20/1) for the Oaks - impressed me on debut and should relish the step up in trip according to breeding.