Cheltenham 2019 Ante-Post bets

[Kevloaf]

Most surprised of the 3 novice chases (i'm discounting the champion hurdle as I don't think he will go there).
Going by your eyes Kev would you be looking to running him over 3m? I understand your point about running their best over 3m but if the horse isn't suited to it YET I don't think they will for the sake of it. They will have other very strong options for the race.
This isn't some slow boat, its a speedy classy horse. 3m stamina test is not what he needs yet in my opinion. There is time for that in a couple of years.
Consider how relieved Gordy and Eddie were that he won. "It was pure relief that he had gone and done it. If you had told us that Samcro would be our only winner at Cheltenham we'd most definitely have taken it. That would have done us," O'Leary added.
I genuinely believe they will look after him, bring him along properly and will be rewarded in the long term. I don't see them throwing him at a specific race just because they have done it in the past with very different horses.

Going by my eyes I'd have him in the JLT.
The point on the target is almost exclusively the connections.
I'd ssy they run horses in the wrong race often (more often than any other owners force anyway)

I dont think they'll be "throwing him at any race" ... but they'll try him over 3m and if he wins he's RSA bound surely.

The beauty of the Irish calendar is that he'll have to be tested too ....

If we get new evidence (exactly like death duty) then I'll think the target would change ... but the default is RSA for Gigginstown's best chaser?

 

[Kevloaf]

Is there not something that everyone in this Samcro targer debate is taking for granted... Will the horse be able to jump a fence? We had a classic case last season with the highly regarded Finians Oscar who couldn't jump for toffee. That factor alone will stop me getting involved in the any race market at short odds. For those following the game more closely than me how common is it for a horse not to take to jumping the way Finians Oscar did?

Yes it's a very valid point and we are taking it for granted.

I do think tough as ante post punters you do gave to take the punt before they jump a fence. Samcro will get clipped before he runs.

It'll identical to this year, having to take the price before he jumps a hurdle ... some will say he's priced on hype done Will be happy to take that.

I'll be in the latter camp

 

[archie]

3 of them went off favourite ..

I don't think so.

This year I only had 3 bets that weren't nrnb - Petit Mouchoir (any race), Buveur D'Air and Melon (EW). Good luck to anyone who builds up a book over the months but, at this stage I'd want 10/1 or more about Pegasus.

 

[Hurricane fly]

I know they buy every horse with the goal to be a Gold Cup horse but to play devils advocate, is it 100% that he was idling up the hill and not that he was tiring? Gordon spoke about a drop in trip which maybe hints he thinks he was too? He doesn’t put much between himself and black op after the last, but because he won and we all think he’s a machine we assume he is idling.

We won’t know how much he has in the tank until it comes to a battle, and there is always the threat of him not staying, you could argue Faugheen was kept at 2m but the Champions hurdle vs stayers is a different argument to CC vs Ryanair vs Gold Cup

 

[SeanRock]

Topofthegame looks a nice prospect for the RSA. He’s a huge scopey type that looks made for jumping a fence. I think it was a shrewd move from Nicholls keeping his novice status for next season after he fell on his chasing debut. A backward type he should fill out into his massive frame in time and will be a lot stronger come next year. I wasn’t sure if Cheltenham would suit him but he ran a blinder in the Coral Cup and 16/1 isn’t too bad a price.

 

[ComplyOrDie]

Topofthegame looks a nice prospect for the RSA. He’s a huge scopey type that looks made for jumping a fence. I think it was a shrewd move from Nicholls keeping his novice status for next season after he fell on his chasing debut. A backward type he should fill out into his massive frame in time and will be a lot stronger come next year. I wasn’t sure if Cheltenham would suit him but he ran a blinder in the Coral Cup and 16/1 isn’t too bad a price.

Yeah, one horse I have in my futures list. He should make a nice prospect, my worry with Nicholls now though is that because Cheltenham is so competitive he wins what he can beforehand, like with Black Corton and then therefore come the festival will likely full short as he would be over raced.

 

[Faugheen_Machine]

I'm of the opinion Samcro will be a much better horse when he gets good ground. Hopefully Punchestown will be decent ground and I think we'll see an even more impressive horse.

I always thought Faugheen could win a champion hurdle or gold cup and I think it's the same with Samcro.

 

[Kevloaf]

I don't think so.

This year I only had 3 bets that weren't nrnb - Petit Mouchoir (any race), Buveur D'Air and Melon (EW). Good luck to anyone who builds up a book over the months but, at this stage I'd want 10/1 or more about Pegasus.

3 of them did go off favourite.

Buveur D'air wasn't double figures either ...
AJ went off odds on (I'd consider that good value despite her not winning)
CoC was 10/1. pulled up lame.
Samcro was 16/1

Im not saying Samcro is a good bet at 8/1 ... I'm saying I think he'll run in the RSA.

 

[FaugheenTheMachine]

Blackbow and Felix Desjay to fight out next year’s Ballymore?

 

[SeanRock]

Yeah, one horse I have in my futures list. He should make a nice prospect, my worry with Nicholls now though is that because Cheltenham is so competitive he wins what he can beforehand, like with Black Corton and then therefore come the festival will likely full short as he would be over raced.

I think Nicholls knows he has bags of potential that’s why he’s been happy to bide his time with him. Can’t imagine him changing tact now and flogging him in winter. This lad could be his ticket to get back winning Grade 1’s at the festival.

 

[Gibbo82]

There are three questions that would be interesting to see what everybody’s opinions are.

Where does everyone see Footpad running at next years festival?
Samcro JLT or RSA?
Laurina Mares or Champion Hurdle?

 

[ryanh97]

There are three questions that would be interesting to see what everybody’s opinions are.

Where does everyone see Footpad running at next years festival?
Samcro JLT or RSA?
Laurina Mares or Champion Hurdle?

Ryanair
JLT
Champion Hurdle

Complete guesses though

 

[Scooby91]

I would be most surprised to see Samcro go to the RSA. To me he is in Kauto mould. He will get 3m+ in the future because hes classy, but there is no need to stretch him out now. Hes the future and needs to be moulded and brought along.
Gordon and Giggy have blow by blow and cracking smart that could go to the RSA (one will go RSA the other 4miler imo).

I can really see him going to the Arkle and destroying the field.

At the minute i'd see it as -

1. Arkle
2. JLT
3. RSA



4. Champion hurdle (next to no chance).

I wouldn't knock that I'd see it as.
1. JLT
2. Arkle
3. Rsa
4. CH


Death duty was there best novive this season no doubt. And I'd be certain he'd have gone jlt. Even though I personally thought he was an rsa horse. And he dosent have the pace of samcro.

 

[Scooby91]

Going by my eyes I'd have him in the JLT.
The point on the target is almost exclusively the connections.
I'd ssy they run horses in the wrong race often (more often than any other owners force anyway)

I dont think they'll be "throwing him at any race" ... but they'll try him over 3m and if he wins he's RSA bound surely.

The beauty of the Irish calendar is that he'll have to be tested too ....

If we get new evidence (exactly like death duty) then I'll think the target would change ... but the default is RSA for Gigginstown's best chaser?

I don't even think he'll run over 3 miles before or at chelt next season tbh. I see no reason why he won't go the same route as death duty.

 

[Scooby91]

There are three questions that would be interesting to see what everybody’s opinions are.

Where does everyone see Footpad running at next years festival?
Samcro JLT or RSA?
Laurina Mares or Champion Hurdle?

Footpad Ryanair / qmcc
Samcro JLT
Laurina mares hurdle

 

[jono]

There are three questions that would be interesting to see what everybody’s opinions are.

Where does everyone see Footpad running at next years festival?
Samcro JLT or RSA?
Laurina Mares or Champion Hurdle?

Footpad - Ryanair with a genuine idea to then go Gold Cup the following i.e use the race as a stepping stone rather than slotting horses into it

Samcro - Close call between RSA and JLT but I'd go with the former

Laurina - I'd be quite surprised if she is not lining up in the Mares race. It took a late injury to force Annie Power into the CH otherwise that never would have happened.

 

[jono]

I don't even think he'll run over 3 miles before or at chelt next season tbh. I see no reason why he won't go the same route as death duty.

They are very different horses Samcro and Death Duty, clearly. So outside of them both being their best novice either season it's hard to compare and doesn't make too much sense. The same in truth could also be said of No More Heroes and to a lesser extent Don Cossack. Samcro long term fits the mould of most of the above - Staying 3 mile chases and the Gold Cup. What he does between that is up in the air because of the talent he holds and what appears right now a likely ability to win over any trip and plenty of pace and raw speed. Death Duty did give enough doubt in his Albert Bartlett run to suggest he may not have been a 3 mile horse. I think if he had of ran a race similar to NMH in the AB - he would have been targeted at the RSA from the start of the season. (even if subsequent races would have brought him back in trip but who knows)

I have no doubt there will be at least 2 targets that Samcro will consistently be linked with next season and like this season, it being up in the air. That said the Irish Novice Chase programme should give a slightly clearer indication of his Cheltenham target compared to hurdles.

I wouldn't be surprised to see him start off in a 2mile beginners chase and there will be plenty to go for (if he starts off at the middle distance I see no way he'll go Arkle) If the Arkle was to be the plan though imo we would know by Christmas as he would have to be lining up in the Racing Post Novice Chase, following onto the Irish Arkle at the Dublin Festival in February.

JLT and RSA are tricker to suggest however I do think he'd have to try the 3 mile trip for any hope of the RSA so again we should know if the RSA is the plan at Christmas with the 3 mile chase there.

My prediction of Samcro next season:

Comfirmed Chasing at start of the year => Champion Hurdle OUT

2m Beginners Chase

2m4 Drinmore at Fairyhouse end of Nov

3m Nevilles Hotels Chase end of Dec => Arkle OUT

2m5 Flogas Novice Chase Feb

At this point there will be speculation on what trip having won impressively over 2m4 - 3m. Connections will suggest likely RSA but JLT possible. End up in RSA

So basically for me - the race he contests over Christmas time will tell me everything for where I see him going at Cheltenham.

 

[PitLad]

Arkle odds on Samcro tumbled from 10s to 7s in 48 hours (blue on oddschecker), unchanged odds in JLT 4s and RSA 10s !!!

 

[Rhinestone_Cowboy]

The other option is to wait for connections to have their serious punt on Samcro for a specific race as they did last year around a week before his first race when he was cut from 16s to 8s with PP for the Ballymore (and then everywhere else over the course of the day). His price went pretty quick that day but if you are on the ball should still be able to get a decent price if that gamble is replicated. It would also give me the confidence that he can jump a fence.

 

[Scooby91]

They are very different horses Samcro and Death Duty, clearly. So outside of them both being their best novice either season it's hard to compare and doesn't make too much sense. The same in truth could also be said of No More Heroes and to a lesser extent Don Cossack. Samcro long term fits the mould of most of the above - Staying 3 mile chases and the Gold Cup. What he does between that is up in the air because of the talent he holds and what appears right now a likely ability to win over any trip and plenty of pace and raw speed. Death Duty did give enough doubt in his Albert Bartlett run to suggest he may not have been a 3 mile horse. I think if he had of ran a race similar to NMH in the AB - he would have been targeted at the RSA from the start of the season. (even if subsequent races would have brought him back in trip but who knows)

I have no doubt there will be at least 2 targets that Samcro will consistently be linked with next season and like this season, it being up in the air. That said the Irish Novice Chase programme should give a slightly clearer indication of his Cheltenham target compared to hurdles.

I wouldn't be surprised to see him start off in a 2mile beginners chase and there will be plenty to go for (if he starts off at the middle distance I see no way he'll go Arkle) If the Arkle was to be the plan though imo we would know by Christmas as he would have to be lining up in the Racing Post Novice Chase, following onto the Irish Arkle at the Dublin Festival in February.

JLT and RSA are tricker to suggest however I do think he'd have to try the 3 mile trip for any hope of the RSA so again we should know if the RSA is the plan at Christmas with the 3 mile chase there.

My prediction of Samcro next season:

Comfirmed Chasing at start of the year => Champion Hurdle OUT

2m Beginners Chase

2m4 Drinmore at Fairyhouse end of Nov

3m Nevilles Hotels Chase end of Dec => Arkle OUT

2m5 Flogas Novice Chase Feb

At this point there will be speculation on what trip having won impressively over 2m4 - 3m. Connections will suggest likely RSA but JLT possible. End up in RSA

So basically for me - the race he contests over Christmas time will tell me everything for where I see him going at Cheltenham.

I think he'd be much more likely to be prepped over 2 2 1/2 without going up to 3m.
I think the arkle will be very much open until the last minute and may end up looking the race but will end up in the jlt.

The RSA woild be the least likely race out of the 4 by far for me. Giggi have so many more horses better suited to the trip.

There's just no reason what so ever imo why they would run him over 3 miles in a novice chase before or at chelt.

Arkle probably the value bet for people who trade out. Because it will always be open as an option and only get shorter and shorter with the old "prestige of the arkle" "too good to run in the jlt" that usually comes out with the likes of vautour and yorkhill.