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Cheltenham 2019 Ante-Post bets

One I'm very interested in at the moment is Mengli Kahn 33/1 for the Champion Hurdle with PP.

I have a total love for 5 year olds that place in the Supreme, it's usually a sign of a potential superstar.

Examples: Melon, Min, Buveur D'Air, Douvan, Sizing John, Vautour, Jezki, Sprinter Sacre.

I assume he will go down the Petit Mouchair route and have a craic at it, hard not to think he'd have been there or there abouts on a sounder surface.
 
Have backed
Samcro at 8s - RSA
P Percy 6s G Cup
Laurina 14s Champion Hurdle

In a Trixie
Whether any of them get to post in those races is another thing
 
re: the point on Death Duty going for the JLT - do we think that was maybe a correction of getting his novice hurdle wrong by sending him to the Bartlett, and hence why they sent Samcro to the Ballymore? i.e that RSA is an option because of an easier novice hurdling campaign
 
ComplyOrDie said:
Great reply Kev, so here comes my counter (well slightly, I agree with most of your points).

The perceived 'best' chaser they had from my own perspective was always Shattered Love, I had absolutely no problem in hyping her up for the RSA thread, only for them to then turn to the JLT, and win it really well, she lived up to my expectations, even if I got the initial race wrong. I was never one to mention Dounikos in as much light, so for that argument I'd still suggest their best chaser went to the JLT (I also had no hiding place should she had ended up getting stuffed, just re-read the RSA thread, I think I mentioned her a little too much :highly_amused:)

I actually don't think there is a set rule for where Gold Cup runners go with regards to the previous festival runs, Don Cossack (another Gigginstown owned) went RSA, then Ryanair (step back in trip) then Gold Cup, this years winner, as we know went from the 4 miler to the Gold Cup and then the Gold Cup again this year as we know, Road To Respect, who ran a cracking race this year given the ground conditions ran in the Plate (over 2m 4f) then the Gold Cup this year. We know Samcro is heading towards the Gold Cup, I think that is a given, and maybe I was a little too brash with my 'shove him in the RSA' comments, but I don't see why they need to send him for that race to determine him being a Gold Cup horse.

If you take the Sizing John route into account (bit of a freak one) too you could now say 'any race' from 2m to 4m could find a Gold Cup winner amongst it.

Do you think we worry too much about what races they run in as novices? If a horse is that talented surely the race he runs in leading up to his overall target is irrelevant, as a horse with Samcro's talent will likely win regardless?

My own thinking is they will want him to have the easiest race possible, ready for a tough campaign when he takes on the Gold Cup the following year.
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Some valid points there CoD.

I would say Shattered Love wasn't perceived as the best chance of winning the RSA which was most important because Gordon dais he would have ran her in the RSA had Dounikos gone for miler. I think she did have more chance than Dounikos did in the JLT hower she was only in the JLT because they thought the best chance of winning the RSA was with dounikos?
Hindsight mates it look like SL is better and you're probably right to think that, but in terms of using her as a reason Samcro might get moved to the JLT because its easier I'd be wary of. Gigginstown don't ever shirk the challenge really.

With regards to the set routeI agree on the main, the SJ example though is different because I'm specifically using the owner as a reason for the target.

It boils down to this for me ....

I do expect Samcro to win any of the 3 races, and I'm convinced that Gigginstown prefer the RSA to the Arkle out JLT. If they could win just one, it would be the RSA... which is why I'm at where I'm at. The horse can win any, so will be in the of they want him in ... unless he proves he doesn't want the staying trip
 
Folski said:
One I'm very interested in at the moment is Mengli Kahn 33/1 for the Champion Hurdle with PP.

I have a total love for 5 year olds that place in the Supreme, it's usually a sign of a potential superstar.

Examples: Melon, Min, Buveur D'Air, Douvan, Sizing John, Vautour, Jezki, Sprinter Sacre.

I assume he will go down the Petit Mouchair route and have a craic at it, hard not to think he'd have been there or there abouts on a sounder surface.
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I assumed he'd go chasing because he's so big ... hadn't thought about the Petit Mouchoir route. When PM switched to GE they'd said he'd go chasing while worth Willie but he didn't with Elliott and that worked out well.

33s would interest me if I knew he was staying hurdling
 
Had some money left in the account so thought I'd do a Canadian: Buveur D'air - Champ Hurdle, Laurina - Mares, Samcro - RSA, Altior - Champ Chase & Penhill - Stayers. Targets for Laurina and Samcro are far from set in stone but I'll take a gamble on them going here.
 
Kevloaf said:
I assumed he'd go chasing because he's so big ... hadn't thought about the Petit Mouchoir route. When PM switched to GE they'd said he'd go chasing while worth Willie but he didn't with Elliott and that worked out well.

33s would interest me if I knew he was staying hurdling
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Could well go over fences, the fly in the ointment could be Farclas, you would imagine he would stay hurdling.
 
Kevloaf said:
Some valid points there CoD.

I would say Shattered Love wasn't perceived as the best chance of winning the RSA which was most important because Gordon dais he would have ran her in the RSA had Dounikos gone for miler. I think she did have more chance than Dounikos did in the JLT hower she was only in the JLT because they thought the best chance of winning the RSA was with dounikos?
Hindsight mates it look like SL is better and you're probably right to think that, but in terms of using her as a reason Samcro might get moved to the JLT because its easier I'd be wary of. Gigginstown don't ever shirk the challenge really.

With regards to the set routeI agree on the main, the SJ example though is different because I'm specifically using the owner as a reason for the target.

It boils down to this for me ....

I do expect Samcro to win any of the 3 races, and I'm convinced that Gigginstown prefer the RSA to the Arkle out JLT. If they could win just one, it would be the RSA... which is why I'm at where I'm at. The horse can win any, so will be in the of they want him in ... unless he proves he doesn't want the staying trip
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And that is why I will just be backing him in the 'Any Race' market (although a predictably poorer price than guessing the race) until we get a clearer picture. I think I have seen every race possible as a target from one person or another, that's how hard this one is to take aim at IMO. 5/2 (WH) for a predicted odds on banker come the festival, assuming he gets there well, which we all hope he does, will seem like a solid price.....IN A YEARS TIME :highly_amused::highly_amused:

That said I am still open to the debate about which race he goes for ;)
 
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Will William Hill offer the to win any race prices in shop? Would be handy to chuck a few quid a week on Samcro and Laurina
 
ComplyOrDie said:
And that is why I will just be backing him in the 'Any Race' market (although a predictably poorer price than guessing the race) until we get a clearer picture. I think I have seen every race possible as a target from one person or another, that's how hard this one is to take aim at IMO. 5/2 (WH) for a predicted odds on banker come the festival, assuming he gets there well, which we all hope he does, will seem like a solid price.....IN A YEARS TIME :highly_amused::highly_amused:

That said I am still open to the debate about which race he goes for ;)
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I can see why you would think JLT. He obviously has buckets of pace, and has already beat everything from the Neptune.

Would anything from either the Albert Bartlett or Stayers really scare them though.
 
Folski said:
I can see why you would think JLT. He obviously has buckets of pace, and has already beat everything from the Neptune.

Would anything from either the Albert Bartlett or Stayers really scare them though.
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I don't think anything will scare them when it comes to Samcro, as far I as I can make out they literally believe he is the best they have ever had!

It will more be a case of horses avoiding him now I think!
 
ComplyOrDie said:
I don't think anything will scare them when it comes to Samcro, as far I as I can make out they literally believe he is the best they have ever had!

It will more be a case of horses avoiding him now I think!
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You are probably spot on with that. Nailed on for RSA for me though, my biggest worry is they would be tempted to go Gold Cup, but I think MOL has more sense.
 
I would be most surprised to see Samcro go to the RSA. To me he is in Kauto mould. He will get 3m+ in the future because hes classy, but there is no need to stretch him out now. Hes the future and needs to be moulded and brought along.
Gordon and Giggy have blow by blow and cracking smart that could go to the RSA (one will go RSA the other 4miler imo).

I can really see him going to the Arkle and destroying the field.

At the minute i'd see it as -

1. Arkle
2. JLT
3. RSA



4. Champion hurdle (next to no chance).
 
KingSprinterSacre said:
I would be most surprised to see Samcro go to the RSA. To me he is in Kauto mould. He will get 3m+ in the future because hes classy, but there is no need to stretch him out now. Hes the future and needs to be moulded and brought along.
Gordon and Giggy have blow by blow and cracking smart that could go to the RSA (one will go RSA the other 4miler imo).

I can really see him going to the Arkle and destroying the field.

At the minute i'd see it as -

1. Arkle
2. JLT
3. RSA



4. Champion hurdle (next to no chance).
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Most surprised by the RSA?

Ive done a fairly lengthy post about that and I can't see that way of thinking BECAUSE it's a Gigginstown decision.

If he wasn't owned by Giggi you'd be on the mark ... but go back and pick apart my post KSS ... having CS and BBB isn't reason you switch their star IMO
 
Kevloaf said:
Most surprised by the RSA?

Ive done a fairly lengthy post about that and I can't see that way of thinking BECAUSE it's a Gigginstown decision.

If he wasn't owned by Giggi you'd be on the mark ... but go back and pick apart my post KSS ... having CS and BBB isn't reason you switch their star IMO
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Most surprised of the 3 novice chases (i'm discounting the champion hurdle as I don't think he will go there).
Going by your eyes Kev would you be looking to running him over 3m? I understand your point about running their best over 3m but if the horse isn't suited to it YET I don't think they will for the sake of it. They will have other very strong options for the race.
This isn't some slow boat, its a speedy classy horse. 3m stamina test is not what he needs yet in my opinion. There is time for that in a couple of years.
Consider how relieved Gordy and Eddie were that he won. "It was pure relief that he had gone and done it. If you had told us that Samcro would be our only winner at Cheltenham we'd most definitely have taken it. That would have done us," O'Leary added.
I genuinely believe they will look after him, bring him along properly and will be rewarded in the long term. I don't see them throwing him at a specific race just because they have done it in the past with very different horses.
 
p.s - I love that we are debating a horses next year target less than a week after this years festival
 
You should bear in mind that it was last October that the FJ bankers for 2018 were Fayonagh, Cause Of Causes, Apples Jade and Samcro.
 
ComplyOrDie said:
And that is why I will just be backing him in the 'Any Race' market (although a predictably poorer price than guessing the race) until we get a clearer picture. I think I have seen every race possible as a target from one person or another, that's how hard this one is to take aim at IMO. 5/2 (WH) for a predicted odds on banker come the festival, assuming he gets there well, which we all hope he does, will seem like a solid price.....IN A YEARS TIME :highly_amused::highly_amused:

That said I am still open to the debate about which race he goes for ;)
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Is there not something that everyone in this Samcro targer debate is taking for granted... Will the horse be able to jump a fence? We had a classic case last season with the highly regarded Finians Oscar who couldn't jump for toffee. That factor alone will stop me getting involved in the any race market at short odds. For those following the game more closely than me how common is it for a horse not to take to jumping the way Finians Oscar did?
 
I'll say it now, he doesn't win at next years festival....
 
archie said:
You should bear in mind that it was last October that the FJ bankers for 2018 were Fayonagh, Cause Of Causes, Apples Jade and Samcro.
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3 of them went off favourite ... I don't think that's a negative?
 
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