Cheltenham 2019 Ante-Post bets

[ComplyOrDie]

Wonder if any bookie will give us a daft price on all 4 Championship winners to retain

The only one I wouldn't want in there is Native River as I'd be hoping for soft ground again, and overall I don't think I'd want that to be the case. The other 3 I really like though.

 

[Kevloaf]

Samcro, as has been said before, could go anywhere and probably win! Be surprised if they shove him in the RSA though, that's always a gruelling race. JLT I suspect. Be even more surprised if they stay over hurdles with him.

Could go anywhere and win - I agree - IF it was up to Gordon Elliott...

However, it is not. My opinion on the Samcro target....

I'm surprised you don't think they'll "shove" him in the RSA though.... this season, yet again, proved that Gigginstown want their perceived best staying chaser in the RSA.

Elliott was adamant he wanted Dounikos in the four miler as he didn't think they'd beat Presenting Percy.... but Dounikos ran in the RSA and .... was beaten by Presenting Percy! Gigginstown made that call.
A couple of years back, Mullins wanted Don Poli in the four miler... he ended up in the RSA and won it. They aren't the only two examples either.

The huge point is, that Gigginstown decide, and until I hear/read Michael O'Leary say ANYTHING that contradicts him being a future Gold Cup horse I'd be surprised if he is anywhere BUT the RSA.

I've seen a few people on here, social media and in the Podcasts talking about the Arkle and JLT and I just don't understand why people are ignoring the owners clear preference for the RSA. Especially with reference to the JLT... I don't think O'Leary gives a hoot about the JLT. Only Sir Des Champs of any note whatsoever was in that race for him, and that season they had First Lieutenant who'd won the Neptune the year before and Sir Des Champs had won the Martin Pipe...so at the time FL had better form in the book and was perceived a better horse. Probably isn't in hindsight but a Ballymore winner is better than a Martin Pipe winner as a novice chaser you'd say!

Another reason I've seen in the number of other options Gigginstown have .... but that is true every season. They purposefully BUY 3 mile chasing types... so they'll always be top heavy in that department statistically. What I would be 100% certain of, is that Samcro gets put in the race they want him in, and the others slot around or accompany him... to suggest they'd switch Samcro because they've got another horse for me is not going to happen. I appreciate they won't want to beat Samcro with their own... but I don't think they're thinking about that...and to be honest I can't see a situation where that would happen. You'd need one of the staying novice chasers to have absolutely blown everything away and be a favourite for the RSA without Samcro for that to even appear as a possibility for me. I don't think they'll have an "also ran" in the RSA if they could have the favourite.

They'll 100% TRY him over further.... this is another point...with him being a future Gold Cup horse (that nobody can disagree with being the plan) they'll try him over 3m at some stage before Cheltenham. He's always won on soft over 2m5f - to think he'll NOT go up another 3 for me is silly. If he travels through that race and puts a race like that to bed (which I expect he will) then they won't consider coming back in trip at Cheltenham.... the ONLY possibility, would be a Death Duty type scenario, where he SHOWS he isn't a true 3 miler... I will 100% agree he won't go RSA if he PROVES he doesn't stay. However, I would be confident he would at this stage.

People will say "oh but he has the pace for shorter"...and he does..... but instead of being a "2 miler that stays further".... he'll be "a staying chaser with the pace to win over 2 miles".... The very best Gold Cup horse I've ever seen (Kauto Star) fits in to that mould...Samcro could well be the same.

I do NOT want people confusing this with what race I "think" he should be in, or what race he'd have the best chance in.... but I do think the RSA is the target. I think that is clear and the target UNTIL proven otherwise.

The RSA should be the starting point, I am shocked that the bookies have the JLT as the shorter of the 3 novice chasing routes. I'm not really giving much thought to the Champion Hurdle route either... they've said all along he's bought as a 3 mile chaser, so as exciting as it would be to see him have a go at the Champion Hurdle before going chasing, that really would be out of character!


I imagine plenty will disagree with me looking at comments on here... but I'd like to see genuine reasons why you think they'd avoid the RSA?

 

[Faugheen_Machine]

Totally agree Kev. Don Cossack and No More Heroes are other examples of the O'Leary's targeting the RSA with the best novice chaser of the season.

 

[Faugheen_Machine]

The only one I wouldn't want in there is Native River as I'd be hoping for soft ground again, and overall I don't think I'd want that to be the case. The other 3 I really like though.

I couldn't put Native River in either purely for that reason and substituted him with Presenting Percy.

Bet placed

 

[Vautour]

Could go anywhere and win - I agree - IF it was up to Gordon Elliott...

However, it is not. My opinion on the Samcro target....

I'm surprised you don't think they'll "shove" him in the RSA though.... this season, yet again, proved that Gigginstown want their perceived best staying chaser in the RSA.

Elliott was adamant he wanted Dounikos in the four miler as he didn't think they'd beat Presenting Percy.... but Dounikos ran in the RSA and .... was beaten by Presenting Percy! Gigginstown made that call.
A couple of years back, Mullins wanted Don Poli in the four miler... he ended up in the RSA and won it. They aren't the only two examples either.

The huge point is, that Gigginstown decide, and until I hear/read Michael O'Leary say ANYTHING that contradicts him being a future Gold Cup horse I'd be surprised if he is anywhere BUT the RSA.

I've seen a few people on here, social media and in the Podcasts talking about the Arkle and JLT and I just don't understand why people are ignoring the owners clear preference for the RSA. Especially with reference to the JLT... I don't think O'Leary gives a hoot about the JLT. Only Sir Des Champs of any note whatsoever was in that race for him, and that season they had First Lieutenant who'd won the Neptune the year before and Sir Des Champs had won the Martin Pipe...so at the time FL had better form in the book and was perceived a better horse. Probably isn't in hindsight but a Ballymore winner is better than a Martin Pipe winner as a novice chaser you'd say!

Another reason I've seen in the number of other options Gigginstown have .... but that is true every season. They purposefully BUY 3 mile chasing types... so they'll always be top heavy in that department statistically. What I would be 100% certain of, is that Samcro gets put in the race they want him in, and the others slot around or accompany him... to suggest they'd switch Samcro because they've got another horse for me is not going to happen. I appreciate they won't want to beat Samcro with their own... but I don't think they're thinking about that...and to be honest I can't see a situation where that would happen. You'd need one of the staying novice chasers to have absolutely blown everything away and be a favourite for the RSA without Samcro for that to even appear as a possibility for me. I don't think they'll have an "also ran" in the RSA if they could have the favourite.

They'll 100% TRY him over further.... this is another point...with him being a future Gold Cup horse (that nobody can disagree with being the plan) they'll try him over 3m at some stage before Cheltenham. He's always won on soft over 2m5f - to think he'll NOT go up another 3 for me is silly. If he travels through that race and puts a race like that to bed (which I expect he will) then they won't consider coming back in trip at Cheltenham.... the ONLY possibility, would be a Death Duty type scenario, where he SHOWS he isn't a true 3 miler... I will 100% agree he won't go RSA if he PROVES he doesn't stay. However, I would be confident he would at this stage.

People will say "oh but he has the pace for shorter"...and he does..... but instead of being a "2 miler that stays further".... he'll be "a staying chaser with the pace to win over 2 miles".... The very best Gold Cup horse I've ever seen (Kauto Star) fits in to that mould...Samcro could well be the same.

I do NOT want people confusing this with what race I "think" he should be in, or what race he'd have the best chance in.... but I do think the RSA is the target. I think that is clear and the target UNTIL proven otherwise.

The RSA should be the starting point, I am shocked that the bookies have the JLT as the shorter of the 3 novice chasing routes. I'm not really giving much thought to the Champion Hurdle route either... they've said all along he's bought as a 3 mile chaser, so as exciting as it would be to see him have a go at the Champion Hurdle before going chasing, that really would be out of character!


I imagine plenty will disagree with me looking at comments on here... but I'd like to see genuine reasons why you think they'd avoid the RSA?

This is spot on.

 

[FaugheenTheMachine]

Excellent write up Kev; just to play devils advocate how many of those horses could realistically have won a Supreme? Think most would always have looked pure stayers

 

[charlie]

Yeh excellent write up Kev. Left thinking 8/1 looks big even now

 

[jono]

Excellent write up Kev - think you have nailed it there. I'm been surprised by the lack of RSA talk since Cheltenham but good to hear plenty on here hold this view.

I certainly can't see any reason why he'll be staying over hurdles next season especially being 6 years old. Talking of which...

Eddie O'Leary will vote for Samcro to begin his chasing career next season when discussions take place in late summer, but Gigginstown's racing manager stressed that no decision will be made on the future of the brilliant Ballymore winner before then.

Samcro is currently ante-post favourite for the Arkle, JLT and the RSA at the 2019 Cheltenham festival, as well as second favourite behind Buveur D'Air for the Champion Hurdle, but it might be wise to wait until next autumn to get involved in any of those markets as no definite decision has been made on what route he will take.

We've not discussed it yet and that might not take place until Galway time in late summer," O'Leary said on Monday evening.

"He'll hopefully go to Punchestown next, where he has the option of any of the novice hurdles, and then he'll have a big, long summer and enjoy a well-deserved rest out on the grass.

"My vote would be to go chasing with him next season but there's no plan in place at all yet. The plan was Cheltenham and hopefully we'll get him to Punchestown now."

O'Leary says the overriding feeling after Samcro bagged the Ballymore was one of relief.

"It was pure relief that he had gone and done it. If you had told us that Samcro would be our only winner at Cheltenham we'd most definitely have taken it. That would have done us," O'Leary added.

 

[Kevloaf]

Excellent write up Kev; just to play devils advocate how many of those horses could realistically have won a Supreme? Think most would always have looked pure stayers

Not many... if any.

However I don't think that'd change their opinion...if they wanted horses to win Supreme's, they'd buy horses to try and do that...and Champion Hurdles, Champion Chases and so on...

Michael O'Leary is on record as saying the Gold Cup is what they are in it for... if the Gold Cup bid fails, then re-route and pick up what they can... but 100% they'll aim him for the Gold Cup and the RSA is the stepping stone they'll take IMO

 

[ryanh97]

This is my 1000th post here so I thought i'd pay some thanks.

Last week was my second festival on here and has been my most successful yet (the year before was my most successful at the time aswell). I had a full year on here this time around unlike before and managed to make more profit with less of an outlay.

So... thanks to everyone here who contributes. Whether I agree with your opinions or not it's the reason I love the game. A special thanks to Kev for all of his fantastic write ups and the effort he puts in round here. Thanks to everyone else for making this place the greatest forum out there.

Here's to next year :triumphant:

 

[Istabraq]

I’m sure Giggs are on record in saying that every horse they buy is with the intention of being a future Gold Cup winner, so as suggested if you have a talent like Samcro and no real desire to win a Champion or Stayers hurdle then chasing is the obvious step to take.
I wouldn’t rule out the JLT, often a high class affair run on completely fresh ground, it may be an attractive stepping stone to the 2020 Gold Cup...

 

[Kevloaf]

This is my 1000th post here so I thought i'd pay some thanks.

Last week was my second festival on here and has been my most successful yet (the year before was my most successful at the time aswell). I had a full year on here this time around unlike before and managed to make more profit with less of an outlay.

So... thanks to everyone here who contributes. Whether I agree with your opinions or not it's the reason I love the game. A special thanks to Kev for all of his fantastic write ups and the effort he puts in round here. Thanks to everyone else for making this place the greatest forum out there.

Here's to next year :triumphant:

Thanks Ryan, that is very kind. I've had more thank-you's than I deserve already... and I'm sure for every thank-you plenty of people wish I'd shut up

Congrats on the 2nd "best ever" in a row.

 

[Kevloaf]

I’m sure Giggs are on record in saying that every horse they buy is with the intention of being a future Gold Cup winner, so as suggested if you have a talent like Samcro and no real desire to win a Champion or Stayers hurdle then chasing is the obvious step to take.
I wouldn’t rule out the JLT, often a high class affair run on completely fresh ground, it may be an attractive stepping stone to the 2020 Gold Cup...

I genuinely think they'd sooner take in the Arkle than the JLT. The bookies disagree with me so I must be off the mark somewhat ... but I feel like he's priced on the fact he won the Ballymore therefore JLT next obvious step which is probably the case for most horses in most yards... but for me, the owners wishes are being under-estimated in the ante-post market at 8/1 RSA.

Don't get me wrong, if he was a big price JLT I'd take a flyer... but 4/1 is way too short as I Don't think he runs there.

 

[ryanh97]

Thanks Ryan, that is very kind. I've had more thank-you's than I deserve already... and I'm sure for every thank-you plenty of people wish I'd shut up

Congrats on the 2nd "best ever" in a row.

Thanks Kev- cant wait for the 3rd best ever in a row

 

[ryanh97]

I genuinely think they'd sooner take in the Arkle than the JLT. The bookies disagree with me so I must be off the mark somewhat ... but I feel like he's priced on the fact he won the Ballymore therefore JLT next obvious step which is probably the case for most horses in most yards... but for me, the owners wishes are being under-estimated in the ante-post market at 8/1 RSA.

Don't get me wrong, if he was a big price JLT I'd take a flyer... but 4/1 is way too short as I Don't think he runs there.

Not another case of Kev thinking one goes for the Arkle instead of the JLT eh?

 

[MrMcGoldrick]

I've had a bit on Samcro for the Arkle too Kev, there was a time when the Neptune was regarded more as a stepping stone for the champion hurdle than the supreme was, because you need more of a stayer for the ch, these days though it seems more likely a tester for future chasers, but it still takes more to run a 2 mile chase than hurdle, and a year later the Champ chase would beckon, which carries much more kudos than anything other than the Gold cup. Difficult call at this stage though, all depends what kind of races they target, small stakes for now but the current price for him in the Arkle will look enormous if he turns up there

 

[Istabraq]

I think experience on the New Course is crucial.
Remember he only finished 2l ahead of Black Op who ploughed his way through the last rather than attempt to jump the thing so could easily have been much closer, so a small question to answer maybe about his suitability to the track, and the New Course provides different challenges to the speedier Old Course.

 

[ComplyOrDie]

Could go anywhere and win - I agree - IF it was up to Gordon Elliott...

However, it is not. My opinion on the Samcro target....

I'm surprised you don't think they'll "shove" him in the RSA though.... this season, yet again, proved that Gigginstown want their perceived best staying chaser in the RSA.

Elliott was adamant he wanted Dounikos in the four miler as he didn't think they'd beat Presenting Percy.... but Dounikos ran in the RSA and .... was beaten by Presenting Percy! Gigginstown made that call.
A couple of years back, Mullins wanted Don Poli in the four miler... he ended up in the RSA and won it. They aren't the only two examples either.

The huge point is, that Gigginstown decide, and until I hear/read Michael O'Leary say ANYTHING that contradicts him being a future Gold Cup horse I'd be surprised if he is anywhere BUT the RSA.

I've seen a few people on here, social media and in the Podcasts talking about the Arkle and JLT and I just don't understand why people are ignoring the owners clear preference for the RSA. Especially with reference to the JLT... I don't think O'Leary gives a hoot about the JLT. Only Sir Des Champs of any note whatsoever was in that race for him, and that season they had First Lieutenant who'd won the Neptune the year before and Sir Des Champs had won the Martin Pipe...so at the time FL had better form in the book and was perceived a better horse. Probably isn't in hindsight but a Ballymore winner is better than a Martin Pipe winner as a novice chaser you'd say!

Another reason I've seen in the number of other options Gigginstown have .... but that is true every season. They purposefully BUY 3 mile chasing types... so they'll always be top heavy in that department statistically. What I would be 100% certain of, is that Samcro gets put in the race they want him in, and the others slot around or accompany him... to suggest they'd switch Samcro because they've got another horse for me is not going to happen. I appreciate they won't want to beat Samcro with their own... but I don't think they're thinking about that...and to be honest I can't see a situation where that would happen. You'd need one of the staying novice chasers to have absolutely blown everything away and be a favourite for the RSA without Samcro for that to even appear as a possibility for me. I don't think they'll have an "also ran" in the RSA if they could have the favourite.

They'll 100% TRY him over further.... this is another point...with him being a future Gold Cup horse (that nobody can disagree with being the plan) they'll try him over 3m at some stage before Cheltenham. He's always won on soft over 2m5f - to think he'll NOT go up another 3 for me is silly. If he travels through that race and puts a race like that to bed (which I expect he will) then they won't consider coming back in trip at Cheltenham.... the ONLY possibility, would be a Death Duty type scenario, where he SHOWS he isn't a true 3 miler... I will 100% agree he won't go RSA if he PROVES he doesn't stay. However, I would be confident he would at this stage.

People will say "oh but he has the pace for shorter"...and he does..... but instead of being a "2 miler that stays further".... he'll be "a staying chaser with the pace to win over 2 miles".... The very best Gold Cup horse I've ever seen (Kauto Star) fits in to that mould...Samcro could well be the same.

I do NOT want people confusing this with what race I "think" he should be in, or what race he'd have the best chance in.... but I do think the RSA is the target. I think that is clear and the target UNTIL proven otherwise.

The RSA should be the starting point, I am shocked that the bookies have the JLT as the shorter of the 3 novice chasing routes. I'm not really giving much thought to the Champion Hurdle route either... they've said all along he's bought as a 3 mile chaser, so as exciting as it would be to see him have a go at the Champion Hurdle before going chasing, that really would be out of character!


I imagine plenty will disagree with me looking at comments on here... but I'd like to see genuine reasons why you think they'd avoid the RSA?

Great reply Kev, so here comes my counter (well slightly, I agree with most of your points).

The perceived 'best' chaser they had from my own perspective was always Shattered Love, I had absolutely no problem in hyping her up for the RSA thread, only for them to then turn to the JLT, and win it really well, she lived up to my expectations, even if I got the initial race wrong. I was never one to mention Dounikos in as much light, so for that argument I'd still suggest their best chaser went to the JLT (I also had no hiding place should she had ended up getting stuffed, just re-read the RSA thread, I think I mentioned her a little too much :highly_amused

I actually don't think there is a set rule for where Gold Cup runners go with regards to the previous festival runs, Don Cossack (another Gigginstown owned) went RSA, then Ryanair (step back in trip) then Gold Cup, this years winner, as we know went from the 4 miler to the Gold Cup and then the Gold Cup again this year as we know, Road To Respect, who ran a cracking race this year given the ground conditions ran in the Plate (over 2m 4f) then the Gold Cup this year. We know Samcro is heading towards the Gold Cup, I think that is a given, and maybe I was a little too brash with my 'shove him in the RSA' comments, but I don't see why they need to send him for that race to determine him being a Gold Cup horse.

If you take the Sizing John route into account (bit of a freak one) too you could now say 'any race' from 2m to 4m could find a Gold Cup winner amongst it.

Do you think we worry too much about what races they run in as novices? If a horse is that talented surely the race he runs in leading up to his overall target is irrelevant, as a horse with Samcro's talent will likely win regardless?

My own thinking is they will want him to have the easiest race possible, ready for a tough campaign when he takes on the Gold Cup the following year.

 

[Scooby91]

I genuinely think they'd sooner take in the Arkle than the JLT. The bookies disagree with me so I must be off the mark somewhat ... but I feel like he's priced on the fact he won the Ballymore therefore JLT next obvious step which is probably the case for most horses in most yards... but for me, the owners wishes are being under-estimated in the ante-post market at 8/1 RSA.

Don't get me wrong, if he was a big price JLT I'd take a flyer... but 4/1 is way too short as I Don't think he runs there.

I think he's far more likely jlt than rsa now personally. He dosent strike me as wanting 3 miles at all at this stage. If death duty dosent want 3 miles over fences as a novice, then samcro deffinately dosent.
I think the intermediate trip, though i wouldnt be shocked if he went for the arkle,
I would be suprised if he went rsa however.

After all this he still needs to go back and jump a fence, finians oscar and bacardys both won ptps and grade1 hurdles between them and diddnt take to it after there season over hurdles.

 

[ComplyOrDie]

One horse I wanted to make note of for next season is Vision Des Flos, someone I know managed to get him requested for the 'Any Race' market and WH are 20/1 as opposed to SkyBet who are 12/1!

He has been massively messed a round with this season and I hope Tizzard does the right thing and drops him to 2m again, whether that be over hurdles or fences, if I had to choose right now I'd say he'd be a great prospect for the Arkle.