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Cheltenham Bumper 2018

Didtheyleaveyououtto even bigger now than post Ascot. Clearly nobody thinks he will cope with the ground.
 
kinloch brae said:
Didtheyleaveyououtto even bigger now than post Ascot. Clearly nobody thinks he will cope with the ground.
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Must admit my planned 'biggest bet of the Festival' will no longer happen. Very closely related to Denman who did most of his running on decent ground (although did win on Heavy at Cheltenham). It will be a 'just in case' bet now
 
Bayoffreedom said:
Must admit my planned 'biggest bet of the Festival' will no longer happen. Very closely related to Denman who did most of his running on decent ground (although did win on Heavy at Cheltenham). It will be a 'just in case' bet now
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I don't think he's going to run, hope i'm wrong
 
Robbante said:
I don't think he's going to run, hope i'm wrong
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At the moment it is all speculation so having got this far they may as well give it a go. It is not as if they are going to be firing away on the front end. Odds against but they might get a pleasant surprise.
 
There are a couple of outsiders that interest me in this, being a bumper I can't make big claims for them as they are all very lightly raced so could be anything, but obviously the ones at the head of the market have the best bumper form to day.

The bigger priced ones that appeal are Know The Score, Crooks Peak & The Flying Sofa. I will find it hard to back anything with conviction, but the basis I have for these are as follows:

Know The Score - Already a heavy ground winner, likelihood is we are going to have soft at minimum which will suit, by Flemensfirth so any cut in the ground will be a bonus. Ran once, won once, pretty easily in the end, 13 lengths the official distance but best work was late on. Pipe has won this with Moon Racer so knows what it takes to get one ready for it. 20/1 NRNB, he's been added to my book for this race.

Crooks Peak - C&D Winner is always a nice start, especially for these younger horses, as Cheltenham can find many a horse out. Hobbs has yet to fire in many winners, but this one still managed to pull a listed bumper out of the bag back in November. That day it was soft ground, so no further worries regarding the going, has also won on good. 2 from 2 in bumpers, and Hobbs is another trainer who usually has one or two decent bumper runners, with Johnson on board this is a positive too. 25/1 NRNB, another added to the book.

The Flying Sofa - Finished 3rd to Didtheyleaveuoutto on his race course debut, where as the latter was having his second start, in that race he finished just a neck behind Bullionaire who was a debut winner of a class 2 bumper at Newbury last season, so the form would show up as fair. Connections then decided, for some reason, to run him in a race, which looked too short at the time, and turned out to be too short a distance on the day too, finishing a never nearer 3rd, only beaten 1 1/4 lengths having never been able to challenge. Then turned up at Fontwell and stuck to the task well to win in what actually looked, for Fontwell anyway, a fair bumper. 33/1 NRNB, and the final one added to my book for this race.

All 3 are small stakes as it's not a race I have an affinity for.
 
ComplyOrDie said:
There are a couple of outsiders that interest me in this, being a bumper I can't make big claims for them as they are all very lightly raced so could be anything, but obviously the ones at the head of the market have the best bumper form to day.

The bigger priced ones that appeal are Know The Score, Crooks Peak & The Flying Sofa. I will find it hard to back anything with conviction, but the basis I have for these are as follows:

Know The Score - Already a heavy ground winner, likelihood is we are going to have soft at minimum which will suit, by Flemensfirth so any cut in the ground will be a bonus. Ran once, won once, pretty easily in the end, 13 lengths the official distance but best work was late on. Pipe has won this with Moon Racer so knows what it takes to get one ready for it. 20/1 NRNB, he's been added to my book for this race.

Crooks Peak - C&D Winner is always a nice start, especially for these younger horses, as Cheltenham can find many a horse out. Hobbs has yet to fire in many winners, but this one still managed to pull a listed bumper out of the bag back in November. That day it was soft ground, so no further worries regarding the going, has also won on good. 2 from 2 in bumpers, and Hobbs is another trainer who usually has one or two decent bumper runners, with Johnson on board this is a positive too. 25/1 NRNB, another added to the book.

The Flying Sofa - Finished 3rd to Didtheyleaveuoutto on his race course debut, where as the latter was having his second start, in that race he finished just a neck behind Bullionaire who was a debut winner of a class 2 bumper at Newbury last season, so the form would show up as fair. Connections then decided, for some reason, to run him in a race, which looked too short at the time, and turned out to be too short a distance on the day too, finishing a never nearer 3rd, only beaten 1 1/4 lengths having never been able to challenge. Then turned up at Fontwell and stuck to the task well to win in what actually looked, for Fontwell anyway, a fair bumper. 33/1 NRNB, and the final one added to my book for this race.

All 3 are small stakes as it's not a race I have an affinity for.
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I mentioned Know The Score earlier. He did make pretty heavy weather of his rules debut but the second did win yesterday. Even on this ground I do wonder if he will be able to go the pace. Of the potential sloggers Carefully Selected has already shown better form and won over an extended trip.

I still fancy Seddon to outrun his price and he is now available at 50/1 four places.
 
kinloch brae said:
I mentioned Know The Score earlier. He did make pretty heavy weather of his rules debut but the second did win yesterday. Even on this ground I do wonder if he will be able to go the pace. Of the potential sloggers Carefully Selected has already shown better form and won over an extended trip.

I still fancy Seddon to outrun his price and he is now available at 50/1 four places.
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Carefully Selected will more than likely be my pick too, any horse that has good form over 2m 4f in soft ground has to have a chance on Wednesday.
 
The Big Bite and Thebannerkingrebel on my side now at 25s. The latter I’ve just added.. found a formline that puts him a little clear of Acey Milan, will handle the ground, trainer thinks he has far more pace than the horse he had who finished 6th in the bumper last year
 
It’s a tough race to find one after fancying Hollowgraphic and getting a nice price at Christmas.

But my bet is on Mercy Mercy Me at 25/1 each way
 
was it the big bite that noel fehily said was the best bumper horse he's ever ridden?
 
riccirich said:
was it the big bite that noel fehily said was the best bumper horse he's ever ridden?
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If it was - he isn’t overly confident today:

“5:30 Champion Bumper – The Big Bite

I won on him last year at Lingfield in a bumper and was very impressed with him. He’s a horse with a good action though and I just don’t think this ground is going to play to his strengths I’m afraid. The ground started out ok on Tuesday but it got worse as the day progressed and Wednesday will be a struggle.”
 
Although Strong Gales have a terrible record in the champion bumper i'm still going to side with Acey Milan, ran in probably the best bumper weve had so far and his weight allowance just swings it for me. cant believe im backing a strong gale in this though Arrrrgh!!!
 
I think Tornado flyer @ 14-1 is good value. Paul Townend(my favourite jockey) on board also helps.
 
Good ride on the second who must have been quite a late gamble. Had it been more of a dogfight I think he might launched a counter.

Of those in the pack Seddon has run far better than the final placing. Even in that field Heskin has managed to find zero cover and although he tanked to the straight it is not surprising he didn't get up the hill. Another promising one for Tom George.
 
Good ride on the second who must have been quite a late gamble. Had it been more of a dogfight I think he might well have launched a counter.

Of those in the pack Seddon has run far better than the final placing. Even in that field Heskin has managed to find zero cover and although he tanked to the straight it is not surprising he didn't get up the hill. Another promising one for Tom George.
 
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