Close Brothers Novice Handicap Chase 2018

[ComplyOrDie]

Any one like Drumcliff? Could sneak in at the weights, currently I think one of the 2 reserves, so only need 2 to pull out before final declarations.

Failed to deliver over hurdles, but his chase performances have been solid enough, if you excuse his last run, over a trip too short IMO where he was readily outpaced as you'd expect in a 2m Grade 2 race, but on the whole he actually jumped really well that day at pace, he is 2 from 3 over the larger obstacles. His overall profile probably isn't ideal leading into the race, but he clearly was expected to achieve a bit over hurdles going off favourite for 4 of his 7 races he ran in. Still lightly raced, 12 runs in 3 and a bit years, he has already achieved more in terms of victories since turning to chasing this season. He will obviously need to improve, but I expect him to do so, and I can see him running a big race for connections who already have 2 strong hopefuls in the race currently.

25/1 NRNB is big enough for me to have a go at, had 2pts e/way.

 

[kinloch brae]

I like MW too but cannot see him getting in. 36th on the list. I can see 11 definite runners above him (Kalondra, Testify, Any Second Now, Tycoon Prince, Demi Sang, Barney Dwan, Rather Be, Brelade, De Plotting Shed, Movewiththetimes, Divine Spear) and that then leaves only 9 spaces from the other 25 runners including him. Ben Pauling is pretty certain Markov won't make the cut and he is a few above him on 138

Did Pauling really want to run Markov on the wrong ground again? Made a complete horlicks last time.

 

[Kevloaf]

Any one like Drumcliff? Could sneak in at the weights, currently I think one of the 2 reserves, so only need 2 to pull out before final declarations.

Failed to deliver over hurdles, but his chase performances have been solid enough, if you excuse his last run, over a trip too short IMO where he was readily outpaced as you'd expect in a 2m Grade 2 race, but on the whole he actually jumped really well that day at pace, he is 2 from 3 over the larger obstacles. His overall profile probably isn't ideal leading into the race, but he clearly was expected to achieve a bit over hurdles going off favourite for 4 of his 7 races he ran in. Still lightly raced, 12 runs in 3 and a bit years, he has already achieved more in terms of victories since turning to chasing this season. He will obviously need to improve, but I expect him to do so, and I can see him running a big race for connections who already have 2 strong hopefuls in the race currently.

25/1 NRNB is big enough for me to have a go at, had 2pts e/way.

BArry didn't mention him on the preview tonight... wasn't saying much about MWTT or ASN though either.

 

[riccirich]

My suspicions are continuing to grow that de plotting shed is hust a decoy in here, brelade is the real plot

 

[Old Vic]

BArry didn't mention him on the preview tonight... wasn't saying much about MWTT or ASN though either.

Just that many had multiple entries MWTT in the plate too - not guaranteed a run but might get in near bottom.

 

[Faugheen_Machine]

Just that many had multiple entries MWTT in the plate too - not guaranteed a run but might get in near bottom.

Barry mentioning the Plate surprised me. I thought he'd be certain to run in this.

 

[robith]

BArry didn't mention him on the preview tonight... wasn't saying much about MWTT or ASN though either.

In fairness, Barry wasn't saying much at all

 

[ComplyOrDie]

No rumours or news that I know of but De Plotting Shed is on the slide with the 2 'connected' Elliott bookmakers, both Betfair & PP go 13/2 now.

It could be nothing, maybe neither of them took much money on him so have bigger liabilities available but there seem to be a plunge on the horse and now quite a big price discrepancy from the other bookmakers.

 

[kinloch brae]

No rumours or news that I know of but De Plotting Shed is on the slide with the 2 'connected' Elliott bookmakers, both Betfair & PP go 13/2 now.

It could be nothing, maybe neither of them took much money on him so have bigger liabilities available but there seem to be a plunge on the horse and now quite a big price discrepancy from the other bookmakers.

Just guessing but perhaps they thought 4/1 was a ridiculous price?

 

[Kevloaf]

Just guessing but perhaps they thought 4/1 was a ridiculous price?

Very possible. They can't have been taking any money at 4/1 and De Plotting Shed isn't THAT good to completely avoid.

 

[Folski]

I've been looking at this race for a while trying to get a handle on it. Ireland have really upped their interest this year after having little runners in previous years.

The race too has changed complexion in the last few years with just 2 runners in 2015 having ran in a grade race on last start they went on to finish 6th and 7th.

2016 had 7 runners to run in graded races on their last start with the following finishing positions 1,2,5,7,9,11,14.

2017 had 6 runners to run in graded races on their last start with the following finishing positions 1, 2, 3, 6, 8, F.

Narrowing this to horses who ran in graded races in February would give you 1, 2, 3 in 2017 and the winner in 2016 also but more horses were down the field.

Narrowing this further to horses who finished 2nd in a graded race in February would have given you a 1, 2 & 5 from 3 runners. Ballyalton fell on his last start.

Qualifiers this year:
Kalondra
Any Second Now
Tycoon Prince
Demi Sang
The Unit
Drumcliff

 

[Quevega]

Anyone who thinks that Any Second Now has been laid out for this then they need to think again.
There's no way the campaign was to get a mark low enough for this race, and no way they could have anticipated no raise from the British Handicapper.
However, that's not to say it hasn't got a very good chance, and if Movewiththetimes goes for the Brown advisory it may be informative. But equally be down to jockey's.
The horses at the top of the market that look like they've more obviously targetted this race are De Plotting Shed and the two Henderson horses.
De Plotting shed ran over shorter in last couple and the Henderson horses were very carefully placed, especially in their last runs.
The owner or part owner has stated on here that Divine Spear was aimed at this from very early on.

 

[ComplyOrDie]

Anyone who thinks that Any Second Now has been laid out for this then they need to think again.
There's no way the campaign was to get a mark low enough for this race, and no way they could have anticipated no raise from the British Handicapper.
However, that's not to say it hasn't got a very good chance, and if Movewiththetimes goes for the Brown advisory it may be informative. But equally be down to jockey's.
The horses at the top of the market that look like they've more obviously targetted this race are De Plotting Shed and the two Henderson horses.
De Plotting shed ran over shorter in last couple and the Henderson horses were very carefully placed, especially in their last runs.
The owner or part owner has stated on here that Divine Spear was aimed at this from very early on.

Any Second Now is just the smokescreen for Drumcliff, with regards to the JP owned runners ;-)

 

[Quevega]

Any Second Now is just the smokescreen for Drumcliff, with regards to the JP owned runners ;-)

could explain why MWTT going elsewhere, if he takes that out and demi sang he's guaranteed to run. If they are only two not to declare and drumcliff gets in at 20 then that would set alarm bells ringing

 

[ComplyOrDie]

could explain why MWTT going elsewhere, if he takes that out and demi sang he's guaranteed to run. If they are only two not to declare and drumcliff gets in at 20 then that would set alarm bells ringing

I really like Drumcliff even without taking on board all of that, but that would certainly make me a little more confident.

 

[TCH29]

Having looked again at the race tonight I've come down on the following horses:

Kalondra - 15/1 - a good case made by Kev and opatcho and I can't really add much more.

Rather Be - 10/1 - Plenty of shouts already for this one so i'm adding my name to the list. Doesn't look like there is much to split the two Henderson runners and Nico prefers Divine Spear but i'd much prefer Rather Be even at 4pts shorter - Divine Spear - doubts about the course and his ability at this level (only won a class 3) for me . I backed him in the Martin Pipe and he was generally well fancied (5th in the market at 11/1) but went out the race at the start. Made amends at Aintree afterwards proving a big field handicap is no issue getting to a mark of 143 over hurdles. Thrown into open company against the likes of L'ami Serge and The New One in his final race at Sandown and went off 6/1 that day. You can write that run off though. He travelled well but stopped and made a noise. Wind Op followed since in the summer. Both Henderson and McGrath both said at the start of the year that he'd make an even better chaser so i'd expect he's better than 143 over fences and there's improvement to come. McGrath (who rode Gold Present into 2nd last year) will ride and he has built up a good relationship with the horse (3 wins from 5). A couple of negatives are that McGrath noted at the start of the season that he may want a flat track. We can't use the Martin Pipe run but he was only 5.75L's back in the 2016 Bumper though. Also i'd be slightly suspect on the tracks he has been running at this season - Towcester, Plumpton and Fakenham - something i'm never a fan of but he's been and proven himself at the the likes of Cheltenham and Aintree festivals before so nothing overly concerning. The more I look at the horse the more I like him.

Keen to add Barney Dwan as well but i'm holding out for double figures for him if possible. More than happy to leave De Plotting Shed and Movewiththetimes well alone though Any Second Now is the one talking horse in this race that I would have liked onside at bigger prices.

I really do agree on Rather Be, and don't know what I'm missing. Any Second Now looks the "class" in the race.

But RB looks by the far the one most open to improvement. He has hammered the field in 2 wins this season, yet remains on 143, even though those results put his comparative OR near 150! He beat War Sound by 19L and Positively Dylan by 17 (albeit receiving 5lbs).

Yes, he "might" prefer flatter tracks and going right handed, but he has performed well at Cheltenham, certainly compared to the price the went off at. I think he looks very unexposed.

So do quite a few. Barney Dwan, Divine Spear, and Any Second Now may have the extra class, but RB could easily have the most improvement.

 

[ComplyOrDie]

Already have plenty of fancies for this, but another horse that is of huge interest, especially if the ground comes up 'soft' or worse as it looks like it may well do, is Testify for Donald McCain. If it comes up any better than 'soft' I will leave him alone.

He is incredibly consistent on bad ground, has been defeated just once on 'soft' ground and that was against The Worlds End off levels, over hurdles, last season, and that horse is now rated 149, and has a very big reputation himself.

Connections have wasted no time in sending him chasing.

He has taken to chasing like a duck to water, 3 from 3 to date, including a poor excuse of a Grade 2 at Haydock, but he still won it nonetheless. He has also beaten fair horses in his other starts, even if they have all been really small fields, he goes from the front so the size of the field wouldn't bother me at all.

He is 20/1 currently, and I will definitely wait until Tuesday morning for the official going, before placing any bet on him, but suspect it will be soft, and that 20/1 will look good value, if it is still available.

 

[kinloch brae]

Already have plenty of fancies for this, but another horse that is of huge interest, especially if the ground comes up 'soft' or worse as it looks like it may well do, is Testify for Donald McCain. If it comes up any better than 'soft' I will leave him alone.

He is incredibly consistent on bad ground, has been defeated just once on 'soft' ground and that was against The Worlds End off levels, over hurdles, last season, and that horse is now rated 149, and has a very big reputation himself.

Connections have wasted no time in sending him chasing.

He has taken to chasing like a duck to water, 3 from 3 to date, including a poor excuse of a Grade 2 at Haydock, but he still won it nonetheless. He has also beaten fair horses in his other starts, even if they have all been really small fields, he goes from the front so the size of the field wouldn't bother me at all.

He is 20/1 currently, and I will definitely wait until Tuesday morning for the official going, before placing any bet on him, but suspect it will be soft, and that 20/1 will look good value, if it is still available.

I would have been very keen on both of mine, Kalondra and Conrad Hastings, on the usual first day ground. That isn't going to happen so have added Testify who looks pretty obvious to me but 20/1 still available. He hasn't got big field experience but is a solid jumper who is likely to be near the front end, if not leading. The soft ground will be a plus.

 

[Kevloaf]

I would have been very keen on both of mine, Kalondra and Conrad Hastings, on the usual first day ground. That isn't going to happen so have added Testify who looks pretty obvious to me but 20/1 still available. He hasn't got big field experience but is a solid jumper who is likely to be near the front end, if not leading. The soft ground will be a plus.

Do you think they might aim a little higher with the soft ground and go for the winnable looking JLT with Testify?

20/1 NRNB is a good price if it is soft. I really really like Testify and have been keen on him at a big price in the JLT at 25s.

Would make sense to back at 20s for an easier race. Surprised I'd ignored him for so long to be honest in this race.

 

[kinloch brae]

Do you think they might aim a little higher with the soft ground and go for the winnable looking JLT with Testify?

20/1 NRNB is a good price if it is soft. I really really like Testify and have been keen on him at a big price in the JLT at 25s.

Would make sense to back at 20s for an easier race. Surprised I'd ignored him for so long to be honest in this race.

He is jocked up and I thought this was the plan. The JLT would be so much simpler if they just ran Monalee. As it is it will probably be back to drawing board.