Supreme Novices 2018

[charlie]

Anybody remotely interested in Whiskey Sour at 66/1?

The trends lads must be interested in the Grade 1 winning form coming in to the race

Joking aside, only 3L behind Paloma Blue in 4th and Samcro and Duc Des Genievres unlikely to run. Takes a big leap but 66/1 to place tempting anyone?

Tempting. Always finishes his races off strongly which could be just what you need coming up that hill

 

[MadeinJapan]

Morning Gents! First post on here so go easy... some v.good insight from posters on this site so looking at getting more involved.
I like the look of Sharjah for this race for the below reasons:
- His 2 runs this season not great but having re-watched them both looked the likely winner when falling & his 7th looks a lot worse than the placing suggests as he seemingly had a live chance still with 2 to jump imo, just didn't get out of the ground to pick up when needed to
- His flat pedigree suggests he would be better on good ground (Supreme will be the best ground he's run on) & I think Mullins has alluded to that too
- Patrick Mullins was quoted as saying "No horse should be odds on against him, not even Samcro" which shows the stable obv. must think a lot of him
- I can't help thinking if they were so sure about Getabird in this then why would they run Sharjah too? I know Ricci has had more than one runner before (VVM & Limini for example) but they're not Gigginstown/McManus where they're usually mob handed (this point could be totally off the radar but just have a niggling feeling)
- I don't ever like backing the fav for the Supreme & would prefer a live chance at bigger odds
- Not sure the starting price will be 25s (Exchange) or even 16s come the day, will be interesting to see if there's money for it on the morning.

 

[Istabraq]

Western Ryder will be given a Supreme declaration just in case ground comes up testing but the firm target is Ballymore.
The horse is very well, has one more piece of serious work to do and connections are hopeful he will run with credit, they believe he’s the forgotten horse and that his form entitles him to get involved, definite place claims and if the big guns misfire who knows...

 

[kinloch brae]

Have they committed Vision Des Flos to the Ballymore? The market would seem to suggest that.

Looking for a back up to Paloma Blue because of the threat of soft ground.

 

[charlie]

I’d love to see Next Destintion turn up here

 

[Old Vic]

Morning Gents! First post on here so go easy... some v.good insight from posters on this site so looking at getting more involved.
I like the look of Sharjah for this race for the below reasons:
- His 2 runs this season not great but having re-watched them both looked the likely winner when falling & his 7th looks a lot worse than the placing suggests as he seemingly had a live chance still with 2 to jump imo, just didn't get out of the ground to pick up when needed to
- His flat pedigree suggests he would be better on good ground (Supreme will be the best ground he's run on) & I think Mullins has alluded to that too
- Patrick Mullins was quoted as saying "No horse should be odds on against him, not even Samcro" which shows the stable obv. must think a lot of him
- I can't help thinking if they were so sure about Getabird in this then why would they run Sharjah too? I know Ricci has had more than one runner before (VVM & Limini for example) but they're not Gigginstown/McManus where they're usually mob handed (this point could be totally off the radar but just have a niggling feeling)
- I don't ever like backing the fav for the Supreme & would prefer a live chance at bigger odds
- Not sure the starting price will be 25s (Exchange) or even 16s come the day, will be interesting to see if there's money for it on the morning.

welcome MIJ

There seems to be some opposition to getabird at the previews and yard seem to be putting up Footpad or Laurina as their nap. You have to forgive Sharjah the last two but I am also looking for something against the favourite. Have backed Summerville Boy on form/value.

 

[Scooby91]

First flow runs.

Hopefully a few of you have the 25/1 ew nrnb. I think he has a solid ew chance in this personally.

 

[kinloch brae]

Not sure where First Flow stands form wise. However, his presence will presumably make life that much more difficult for Walsh should he want to emulate previous years and try and lead.

 

[archie]

I guess I'll just have to keep repeating it every ten pages or so. Sit on your hands until the Tuesday morning then do your nuts on any offers on Getabird.

Bump......

 

[robith]

Bump......

Waiting like a ninja archie

 

[darlojim]

Bump......

I like the confidence!! :triumphant:

 

[archie]

Every ten pages.:very_drunk:

 

[Kevloaf]

First flow runs.

Hopefully a few of you have the 25/1 ew nrnb. I think he has a solid ew chance in this personally.

Have they said why?

Not wanting to get in to the ground conversation, but hadn't they said he'd only run on soft?

Or is he just entered and that is still the case?

 

[Scooby91]

Have they said why?

Not wanting to get in to the ground conversation, but hadn't they said he'd only run on soft?

Or is he just entered and that is still the case?

Said he deserves his chance and it won't be good ground for the 1st race.


On what he said before.
I never listen to Kim Bailey for antepost bets. He's amongst the worst imo. One of the reasons I still backed him at 25s ew 1/4 nrnb.

 

[Kevloaf]

Said he deserves his chance and it won't be good ground for the 1st race.


On what he said before.
I never listen to Kim Bailey for antepost bets. He's amongst the worst imo. One of the reasons I still backed him at 25s ew 1/4 nrnb.

I've got him covered NRNB but was based on the ground not Kim Bailey.

 

[jonthehammer]

I am still trying to get Getabird beaten and I think Kalishnikov could be a play for me on the day. Still got this bee in my bonnet about Getabird not going left handed and also will he handle this track? He is too short now and a lot of that is to do with him being one of Mullins horses. I mean is he as good as Douvan and Vautour when they rocked up here? I just cannot have him one bit.

 

[Sirbetalot]

I am still trying to get Getabird beaten and I think Kalishnikov could be a play for me on the day. Still got this bee in my bonnet about Getabird not going left handed and also will he handle this track? He is too short now and a lot of that is to do with him being one of Mullins horses. I mean is he as good as Douvan and Vautour when they rocked up here? I just cannot have him one bit.

Personally I think he is that short because people are on him at good prices & the bookies does not want to take any more bets, so the best way to stop that is to offer a stupid price, then people start looking else where.. Not saying he is going to win but what I have seen so far from him I wouldn't be laying him above 5/4...

 

[ComplyOrDie]

It seems many are pinning their hopes on Getabird being unable to go left handed to get him beat when in reality there are 3 outcomes:

1. They are correct, he can't go left handed and it affects his performance enough for him to be beat.

2. It has no effect on him and he runs his race, and won't be out the first 2.

3. He improves for going left handed and fairly bolts up.

All 3 are possibilities and we have no proof for either argument whether it will make a difference or not to his running, so for this reason I'd struggle to go against him on the basis of probablity. He doesn't strike me as a horse that has his quirks, so I see no reason to doubt him now.

 

[jonthehammer]

It seems many are pinning their hopes on Getabird being unable to go left handed to get him beat when in reality there are 3 outcomes:

1. They are correct, he can't go left handed and it affects his performance enough for him to be beat.

2. It has no effect on him and he runs his race, and won't be out the first 2.

3. He improves for going left handed and fairly bolts up.

All 3 are possibilities and we have no proof for either argument whether it will make a difference or not to his running, so for this reason I'd struggle to go against him on the basis of probablity. He doesn't strike me as a horse that has his quirks, so I see no reason to doubt him now.

Good points and all are valid and could happen, its a nagging feeling more than anything. He may well bolt up and good luck to anyone on him. He just isn't for me.

 

[Sirbetalot]

It seems many are pinning their hopes on Getabird being unable to go left handed to get him beat when in reality there are 3 outcomes:

1. They are correct, he can't go left handed and it affects his performance enough for him to be beat.

2. It has no effect on him and he runs his race, and won't be out the first 2.

3. He improves for going left handed and fairly bolts up.

All 3 are possibilities and we have no proof for either argument whether it will make a difference or not to his running, so for this reason I'd struggle to go against him on the basis of probablity. He doesn't strike me as a horse that has his quirks, so I see no reason to doubt him now.

I am not an exchange person, but I would only bet against him after the off & once he has jump 3 or 4 hurdles we will know if he likes going left handed..