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National Hunt Chase (4 miler) 2018

Apparently Jury Duty also going RSA, that's the first 5 in the betting all likely going elsewhere...haha
 
With the news that Dounikos(RSA) doesn't go here... and the fact that Elegant Escape (RSA), Presenting Percy(RSA), Invitation Only(JLT) looking unlikly runners, and possibly Mall Dini(KM) I thought I'd just check the rest of the market for any potential and I've come up with...

Duel at Dawn Considering at 40/1 NRNB

He's trained by Alex Hales, which might put people off straight away... however moving past that initially, he has had this race in mind since he got the horse which is something I like to hear regardless. ***Edit, found the quote - "I said when we bought the horse, I;'d really like to run him in the 4 miler at Cheltenham in 2018. That was our long term plan, probably not realistic but what we aimed for. Everything last year was looking after his for this years chasing"

His novice chase was 2nd behind Knight of Noir, who hasn't run since. (Wait For Me ran in the race and fell as fav)

His next run was only a 3 runner race over 3m but he slammed the solid Flintham by 16L staying on nicely.

He then went to Cheltenham in December and was beaten 6L giving 5lbs to Sizing Tennesse. A horse who COlin Tizzard thinks is lively in the RSA. (Make of Tizzards comments what you will haha) but even so, I think that was a good performance and Sizing Tennesse just had a bit more to get away from him. The racing post comments back up the visual performance.... "pressed winner throughout, not fluent 16th, led 4 out, mistake next and soon headed, kept on gamely under pressure from next but always being held".

After that run his trainer said ... “I was chuffed to bits with him at Cheltenham where he was giving 5lb to Sizing Tennessee, a horse I know the Tizzards have always thought quite highly of,” Hales said.

“He has been training well since and I would have thought Warwick will suit him admirably because it will be a slog.

“I think he wants this winter ground which I don't think I'm likely to get at Cheltenham in March. I'm hoping if he runs well here he can go to the Reynoldstown at Ascot next and it is very much one race at a time.”

Now I've picked out that last comment because obviously good ground would be a negative... however I don't think there is even a 1% chance we have it any BETTER than good to soft .... much more likely is good to soft (soft in places) which I think will be fine

*****MASSIVE EDIT***** as I am writing this, just found a link where someone has already tipped it up!!! Ryan from OnTheHunt podcast - not going to retype what I've already done BUT his work is better than mine.... so I'll put the link at the bottom (his actual tip is for Dingo Dollar...)

anyway, I've started so I'll finish (just quicker)...

His final run was when he was beaten by the very likeable Ms Parfois, and she's one at a big price that I think is a player in this too.... so despite "kept on gamely under pressure" again...he found her too good.

The massive hope is obviously that the 4 miles brings out the best in a horse that is clearly just a boat!

I am likely to wait to see how the ground is riding, and to be honest I think 40/1 would be available on the day.... I don';t think NRNB is worth it because if it was good ground he'd run anyway and be a 50/1+ shot.... but on my shortlist and pone I might back while I am there

https://onthehuntracing.wordpress.c...chase-analysis/amp/?__twitter_impression=true
 
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I wouldn't be too quick to write off Elegant Escape running in this race, the market is all over the place with this one and I'm not sure that anyone knows the final decision.
 
Good write up Kev, I'm in for a bit of 40s, not sure he'll be that on the day with all those at the head of the market to come out and only available with 2 firms, and can't see it being good ground on day 1
 
Rhinestone_Cowboy said:
Good write up Kev, I'm in for a bit of 40s, not sure he'll be that on the day with all those at the head of the market to come out and only available with 2 firms
Click to expand...

Maybe not... just incredibly unsexy isn't he...
 
Kevloaf said:
With the news that Dounikos(RSA) doesn't go here... and the fact that Elegant Escape (RSA), Presenting Percy(RSA), Invitation Only(JLT) looking unlikly runners, and possibly Mall Dini(KM) I thought I'd just check the rest of the market for any potential and I've come up with...

Duel at Dawn Considering at 40/1 NRNB

He's trained by Alex Hales, which might put people off straight away... however moving past that initially, he has had this race in mind since he got the horse which is something I like to hear regardless. ***Edit, found the quote - "I said when we bought the horse, I;'d really like to run him in the 4 miler at Cheltenham in 2018. That was our long term plan, probably not realistic but what we aimed for. Everything last year was looking after his for this years chasing"

His novice chase was 2nd behind Knight of Noir, who hasn't run since. (Wait For Me ran in the race and fell as fav)

His next run was only a 3 runner race over 3m but he slammed the solid Flintham by 16L staying on nicely.

He then went to Cheltenham in December and was beaten 6L giving 5lbs to Sizing Tennesse. A horse who COlin Tizzard thinks is lively in the RSA. (Make of Tizzards comments what you will haha) but even so, I think that was a good performance and Sizing Tennesse just had a bit more to get away from him. The racing post comments back up the visual performance.... "pressed winner throughout, not fluent 16th, led 4 out, mistake next and soon headed, kept on gamely under pressure from next but always being held".

After that run his trainer said ... “I was chuffed to bits with him at Cheltenham where he was giving 5lb to Sizing Tennessee, a horse I know the Tizzards have always thought quite highly of,” Hales said.

“He has been training well since and I would have thought Warwick will suit him admirably because it will be a slog.

“I think he wants this winter ground which I don't think I'm likely to get at Cheltenham in March. I'm hoping if he runs well here he can go to the Reynoldstown at Ascot next and it is very much one race at a time.”

Now I've picked out that last comment because obviously good ground would be a negative... however I don't think there is even a 1% chance we have it any BETTER than good to soft .... much more likely is good to soft (soft in places) which I think will be fine

*****MASSIVE EDIT***** as I am writing this, just found a link where someone has already tipped it up!!! Ryan from OnTheHunt podcast - not going to retype what I've already done BUT his work is better than mine.... so I'll put the link at the bottom (his actual tip is for Dingo Dollar...)

anyway, I've started so I'll finish (just quicker)...

His final run was when he was beaten by the very likeable Ms Parfois, and she's one at a big price that I think is a player in this too.... so despite "kept on gamely under pressure" again...he found her too good.

The massive hope is obviously that the 4 miles brings out the best in a horse that is clearly just a boat!

I am likely to wait to see how the ground is riding, and to be honest I think 40/1 would be available on the day.... I don';t think NRNB is worth it because if it was good ground he'd run anyway and be a 50/1+ shot.... but on my shortlist and pone I might back while I am there

https://onthehuntracing.wordpress.c...chase-analysis/amp/?__twitter_impression=true
Click to expand...

Why would you want this one instead of Ms Parfois?

He was well beaten at Warwick, not closing her down and as far as I can see will be 5lbs worse off.
 
Scooby91 said:
Jury duty mossback and rathvinden still the ones to beat for me.
Click to expand...

On likely jockey bookings alone that’s a good shortlist

Kev makes a good case above as does KB but who will be on DAD and MS Parfois ?
 
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One answer

Anthony Honeyball is keen to step up in trip with Ms Parfois in the National Hunt Chase at the Cheltenham Festival, provided conditions are suitable.
The Mosterton handler is favouring a shot at the four-mile event on the opening day of the Festival over an outing in the Betfred Midlands National at Uttoxeter on Saturday week.

After winning a brace of Listed events, Ms Parfois finished a respectable second behind Grade One winner Black Corton in the Reynoldstown at Ascot last month.

Honeyball said: "As the long as the ground is in and around soft, she will run in the four-mile amateurs' chase and Will Biddick will ride her. He will come down and school her before the race.

"The race looks tailor-made for her. She will get the trip well as she is relaxed in her races, plus she has won around Cheltenham.

"She has got a great deal of experience for a novice and you need that in the four-miler. I was quite confident she would win the Reynoldstown, but the ground was not soft enough to bring out her galloping nature, but she didn't run that badl
 
kinloch brae said:
Why would you want this one instead of Ms Parfois?

He was well beaten at Warwick, not closing her down and as far as I can see will be 5lbs worse off.
Click to expand...

Double the price... hoping the extra distance brings out improvement?

I think Ms Parfois is a decent bet also.
 
Kevloaf said:
With the news that Dounikos(RSA) doesn't go here... and the fact that Elegant Escape (RSA), Presenting Percy(RSA), Invitation Only(JLT) looking unlikly runners, and possibly Mall Dini(KM) I thought I'd just check the rest of the market for any potential and I've come up with...

Duel at Dawn Considering at 40/1 NRNB

He's trained by Alex Hales, which might put people off straight away... however moving past that initially, he has had this race in mind since he got the horse which is something I like to hear regardless. ***Edit, found the quote - "I said when we bought the horse, I;'d really like to run him in the 4 miler at Cheltenham in 2018. That was our long term plan, probably not realistic but what we aimed for. Everything last year was looking after his for this years chasing"

His novice chase was 2nd behind Knight of Noir, who hasn't run since. (Wait For Me ran in the race and fell as fav)

His next run was only a 3 runner race over 3m but he slammed the solid Flintham by 16L staying on nicely.

He then went to Cheltenham in December and was beaten 6L giving 5lbs to Sizing Tennesse. A horse who COlin Tizzard thinks is lively in the RSA. (Make of Tizzards comments what you will haha) but even so, I think that was a good performance and Sizing Tennesse just had a bit more to get away from him. The racing post comments back up the visual performance.... "pressed winner throughout, not fluent 16th, led 4 out, mistake next and soon headed, kept on gamely under pressure from next but always being held".

After that run his trainer said ... “I was chuffed to bits with him at Cheltenham where he was giving 5lb to Sizing Tennessee, a horse I know the Tizzards have always thought quite highly of,” Hales said.

“He has been training well since and I would have thought Warwick will suit him admirably because it will be a slog.

“I think he wants this winter ground which I don't think I'm likely to get at Cheltenham in March. I'm hoping if he runs well here he can go to the Reynoldstown at Ascot next and it is very much one race at a time.”

Now I've picked out that last comment because obviously good ground would be a negative... however I don't think there is even a 1% chance we have it any BETTER than good to soft .... much more likely is good to soft (soft in places) which I think will be fine

*****MASSIVE EDIT***** as I am writing this, just found a link where someone has already tipped it up!!! Ryan from OnTheHunt podcast - not going to retype what I've already done BUT his work is better than mine.... so I'll put the link at the bottom (his actual tip is for Dingo Dollar...)

anyway, I've started so I'll finish (just quicker)...

His final run was when he was beaten by the very likeable Ms Parfois, and she's one at a big price that I think is a player in this too.... so despite "kept on gamely under pressure" again...he found her too good.

The massive hope is obviously that the 4 miles brings out the best in a horse that is clearly just a boat!

I am likely to wait to see how the ground is riding, and to be honest I think 40/1 would be available on the day.... I don';t think NRNB is worth it because if it was good ground he'd run anyway and be a 50/1+ shot.... but on my shortlist and pone I might back while I am there

https://onthehuntracing.wordpress.c...chase-analysis/amp/?__twitter_impression=true
Click to expand...

Dingo Dollar in Ultima only
 
I'll say this again as it is probably lost in the thread.

But I was back in Listowel in September and the girlfriend bumped into an old colleague and was chatting to her for probably the bones of a half hour about shite, so we got delayed leave the racecourse after racing, on the way out I saw a man in a hat that could only have been Willie he stood in for a photo and I asked him for a horse for the festival hoping he would give me the Supreme hot pot for the year, he said I think Rathvinden would have to have a great chance in the 4 miler. I requested odds that day and got 33s.

In addition to that little nugget I will add Willie had the very first parking space at the racecourse, I can only assume he was there before they had even opened the gates and was driving a 2005 5 series BMW, there must be some mileage on that.
 
If Willie's car was in the best car park space, they either kept it for him or he slept in the car. He's renowned for being late for the races.:highly_amused:
 
Folski said:
I'll say this again as it is probably lost in the thread.

But I was back in Listowel in September and the girlfriend bumped into an old colleague and was chatting to her for probably the bones of a half hour about shite, so we got delayed leave the racecourse after racing, on the way out I saw a man in a hat that could only have been Willie he stood in for a photo and I asked him for a horse for the festival hoping he would give me the Supreme hot pot for the year, he said I think Rathvinden would have to have a great chance in the 4 miler. I requested odds that day and got 33s.

In addition to that little nugget I will add Willie had the very first parking space at the racecourse, I can only assume he was there before they had even opened the gates and was driving a 2005 5 series BMW, there must be some mileage on that.
Click to expand...

No offence to you mate, but I wonder how many times Willie gets asked that question a day?

I wonder if he has a stock answer ready or if he genuinely thinks about every individual answer. Probably has a box with horses in it and a box with races. Every morning he picks a horse and a race and sticks with that. You were lucky you didn't ask on a day where he picked Getabird and the 4 miler ;)
 
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