Monalee is markedly drifting on the exchange and looks certain to be going to the JLT.
Presenting Percy has had an abysmal campaign. Won over a marathon trip, hurdling then the hardest race of his life on heavy ground against a horse who is likely to be unplaced in the gold cup. He does not have enough time to recover for the RSA and even assuming he does turn up 100% ready he looks a national horse not a possible winner of next years gold cup. He will do well to place here.
Black Corton is a warrior and a battler but no matter how tough he has been this will be the toughest race he has ever ran in and this will be his 13th run in 11 months, he has to crack sooner or later and a bad run looks very possible. A small horse who is at his best on a sharp track. Yes he is 2/2 at Cheltenham but they were class 2 novic chases. The last Cheltenham win was a 3 runner race beating ballyoptic and west approach. West Approach was never travelling that day and looked beat a long way from home with Ballyoptic making a bad mistake at the 10th and was coming to win at the last when blundering and losing his chance. The Cheltenham form of Black Corton really isn't as strong as it looks and having already had 11 starts over fences and 22 career starts in total he can't be open to as much improvement as some of his rivals. I think he is vulnerable here and would be better suited avoiding Cheltenham and waiting for aintree.
Al Boum Photo has won one of his 3 chases, second and falling in the other. The only time he ran with good in the ground description he was unplaced 5th of 18 over hurdles. All of his Chase runs have been on heavy or soft and although he is open to improvement he isn't proven on the expected ground.
2nd in the floggas behind Monalee last time but only around 7 lengths separated the first 7 horses home. Jumping will be put under pressure in this race and although he should go well I can't see him winning.
The winner surely has to be Elegant Escape. Looks a brilliant chaser in the making who can land this years RSA before having a crack and a genuine chance of winning the 2019 gold cup.
Wasn't the greatest hurdler winning a maiden and a novice before outrunning his odds of 100/1 to be 7/15 in last years pertemps hurdle.
Horse is a big monster or a chaser and is developing fast. The only horse to beat Black Corton this season, yes he was getting 3lb but he was value for more than the 3/4 length victory.
Black Corton beat Elegant Escape at kempton in the Feltham but horses who ran in the Feltham and didn't win actually have a far superior record to horses who won the Feltham. Kemptons sharp track clearly didn't suit Elegant Escape at all and he never looked to be travelling from an early stage. Ther big horse didn't handle the kempton bends as well as the small horse and this gave Black Vorton a big advantage in the race. Despite hating the track he showed his fighting spirit and battling quality to be an ever closing 1/12 length behind on the line.
Cheltenham will suit Elegamt Escape and play to his strengths and not Black Corton strengths, he is also open to much more improvement having had just 5 chase Starts and 11 career runs, he has been trained to peak at Cheltenham where as Black Corton was a summer jumper who has continued to surprise connections and ended up here by default. Also when BC beat EE the Tizzard stable was badly out of form.
Elegant Escape has never finished out of the first two and is crying out for a 3mile race at a testing track ran at speed. He will get that here and will be a very hard horse to beat in this race.
Had the perfect prep run easily winning a 4 runner race from the front without being asked any quesToons. That will have put him spotnon for this and the Tizzard stable is really firing now.
Elegant Wscape was of course the only horse to have got SAMCRO off the bridle when they clashed in a point to point as youngsters.
That form from a 3m monkstown point to point in April 2016 is likely to provide 2 of the Wednesday winners at Cheltenham this year.
There is no need to worry about any other runners here. GB have won 15 of the last 20 RSA Chases and they look set to continue their RSA dominance with the brilliant Elegant Escape.
This horse will bolt up in the RSA before winning the 2019 gold cup.
https://youtu.be/FEsEm1I-8bk