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JLT Novices 2018

Scooby91 said:
Cyrname deffinately dosent run. Terrefort runs if it's soft.


Prob Unlikely but dounikos could even still come here. He's not nailed on to go for the 4miler just yet.
He's in the same position as roi des francs and don poli.
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I'd think the JLT is least likely for DOunikos now though? Held (not by far) but held by some principles.... Likely to search for improvement UP in trip?
 
Kevloaf said:
I'd think the JLT is least likely for DOunikos now though? Held (not by far) but held by some principles.... Likely to search for improvement UP in trip?
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It's nrnb he was closed out at the end. There would deffinately be a case for him winming it.
He is unlikely to run but if he does run at current prices I want to be on heavy ew personally. In the off chance oleary sees the opening.

Wherever he goes his best suited race imo is the rsa it's also open.
I will be suprised if oleary gives the green light for the 4 miler all be it it looks very likely on paper


Talking through my pocket, however my pocket backs what I judge to be his correct races. With a very good chance.

No doubt invitation only and monalee should go here..
And alboum photo , dounikos rsa.

They would take both races imo no doubt
 
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quevega said:
I think there's a strong chance if Willoughby is confirmed NR then Monalee will revert and a small domino effect may happen, affecting the three staying novice races.
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Why would Monalee come here just because WC is a NR?? He's in the correct race now. He won't be running anywhere else Imo.
 
To look at the other side of the fence on that flogas form, even though I’ve backed some of those involved, is there an argument for bunch finish = no stand out? Are Al Boum Photo, Invitation Only, Dounikos, even Monalee, real top graders? I’d be pretty certain the first three are no superstars and would be surprised if they won a race at the festival. Even Monalee, who I rate, got beaten at last year’s festival. I think it’s a real possibility that none of those in the flogas go on to win at the festival, would rather take that bet now than go in too big on any of those involved. Its dangerous discounting anyone not in one race that produced a bunch finish, one where those involved had previously had no form of being real top level horses
 
doctorwu said:
Why would Monalee come here just because WC is a NR?? He's in the correct race now. He won't be running anywhere else Imo.
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Whilst the RSA looks the more obvious race we don’t know for certain he wouldn’t have gone JLT anyway. With no WC, connections have to ask themeselves if beating Presenting Percy and Black Corton over 3 miles is a tougher assignment than beating Invitation Only, Modus, Benetar and Finians Oscar (who I don’t fancy at all) over the shorter trip. Wouldn’t be at al surprised if he went JLT
 
Robbante said:
To look at the other side of the fence on that flogas form, even though I’ve backed some of those involved, is there an argument for bunch finish = no stand out? Are Al Boum Photo, Invitation Only, Dounikos, even Monalee, real top graders? I’d be pretty certain the first three are no superstars and would be surprised if they won a race at the festival. Even Monalee, who I rate, got beaten at last year’s festival. I think it’s a real possibility that none of those in the flogas go on to win at the festival, would rather take that bet now than go in too big on any of those involved. Its dangerous discounting anyone not in one race that produced a bunch finish, one where those involved had previously had no form of being real top level horses
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Top graders Imo. And quality throughout the race. With No other option but to go there if you wanted a true grade 1 test.
Even the storyteller is good for his lenient 147 and snow falcon is a 150 horse. Tombstones good for his mark.
Was an outstanding race. And far superior to any other staying novice chase ran.

I am left with no doubt that the flogas will bring up plenty of subsequent graded victorys in the weeks and years to come.
 
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Scooby91 said:
Top graders Imo. And quality throughout the race. With No other option but to go there if you wanted a true grade 1 test.
Even the storyteller is good for his lenient 147 and snow falcon is a 150 horse. Tombstones good for his mark.
Was an outstanding race. And far superior to any other staying novice chase ran.

I am left with no doubt that the flogas will bring up plenty of subsequent graded victorys in the weeks and years to come.
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I'm sure it will but looking at this year's festival I wouldn't be sure any of those who ran in the flogas will win the JLT, RSA or 4 miler. Plenty of decent opposition, and the English horses are no mugs (Finian's Oscar, Modus, Black Corton etc all have strong claims imo). I see Monalee as a graded cheltenham festival winner in waiting, but the others in behind have plenty to prove at the very top level
 
Quote i missed from the Mullins stable tour Monday - "I think Bonbon Au Miel is an RSA type, whereas Al Boum Photo could go for the JLT Novices' Chase. I am not sure if i will divide them or they can both go for the RSA, but Bonbon definitely goes for the RSA"
 
Al Boum Photo JLT I like more than any of the others out of the Flogas
 
Robbante said:
Quote i missed from the Mullins stable tour Monday - "I think Bonbon Au Miel is an RSA type, whereas Al Boum Photo could go for the JLT Novices' Chase. I am not sure if i will divide them or they can both go for the RSA, but Bonbon definitely goes for the RSA"
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Bonbon is wylies he wants a split which is fair with invitation only jlt. I can't see ruby wanted to ride bonbon in the rsa when they've got alboum photo there who could win either the jlt or the rsa

I win a fortune on him for either having took 3 figures on the exchange for both races. but it looks set to me.
Invitation only jlt
So boum photo RSA.
 
Scooby91 said:
Bonbon is wylies he wants a split which is fair with invitation only jlt. I can't see ruby wanted to ride bonbon in the rsa when they've got alboum photo there who could win either the jlt or the rsa

I win a fortune on him for either having took 3 figures on the exchange for both races. but it looks set to me.
Invitation only jlt
So boum photo RSA.
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Invitation Only and Al Boum Photo JLT would work though. That's how it should be if you're putting the horses in the race that gives them the most chance of winning, and a definite possibility i reckon. Al Boum isn't a stayer for me
 
Robbante said:
Invitation Only and Al Boum Photo JLT would work though. That's how it should be if you're putting the horses in the race that gives them the most chance of winning, and a definite possibility i reckon. Al Boum isn't a stayer for me
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We will see its a couple of weeks. Personally think there's no chance of that. Rsa is an easy race to win for monalee and alboum photo. should either defect. Far more likely monalee imo.

alboum photo is still a cracking for the jlt nrnb should it happen.
 
Scooby91 said:
We will see its a couple of weeks. Personally think there's no chance of that. Rsa is an easy race to win for monalee and alboum photo. should either defect. Far more likely monalee imo.

alboum photo is still a cracking for the jlt nrnb should it happen.
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Finians Oscar will win this. Presenting Percy will be different class in the RSA.
 
Bigfish said:
Finians Oscar will win this. Presenting Percy will be different class in the RSA.
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I don't think Percy is good enough to win the RSA on good ground. If it's soft then he would begin to worry me... the saying that gets banded around is that you need to stay 4 miles to get/win an RSA... on soft ground especially. Looking at the line up he's probably the only one that you could be sure could easily have the stamina for that kind of distance, so if it turns into a war of attrition (soft ground) i'd want him on my side
 
Confirmed now that Willoughby Court does not run at the Cheltenham Festival.
 
Bollocks. First blow for me. Had a couple of points at 10/1 and the same at 8/1.
 
Had to back Finians Oscar. Bet365 still 12/1 NRNB BOG... surely too big.
 
Can't Catch Me said:
Had to back Finians Oscar. Bet365 still 12/1 NRNB BOG... surely too big.
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Been my thinking for some time now anyway, had posted last night about it too, suspect he will go off shorter than 12/1 for sure, as a couple probably vacate the market due to running in different races.
 
ComplyOrDie said:
Been my thinking for some time now anyway, had posted last night about it too, suspect he will go off shorter than 12/1 for sure, as a couple probably vacate the market due to running in different races.
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Currently looks like 6 of the first ten in the betting wont run here!

Which only leaves Invitation Only, Modus, Benatar and Finians from those.
 
Connections of Monalee must be sorely tempted....
 
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