Mares Hurdle 2018

[ComplyOrDie]

Ruby was On Racing UK Facebook Live today. VVM came up a couple of times and it appeared no doubt she runs here. Ruby admitted that Apple's Jade looks incredibly hard to beat though

Video here:

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Kept bringing up my girl, Laurina

 

[Kevloaf]

Benie des dieux unlikely runner your also talking chase form. Very likely to follow the mares chase program
Asthuria is not a natural chaser with the technique of what she's shown. Shes a slick hurdler stays well.

Iv watched benie des dieux many times in French hurdle races . Her forms good but nothing special. It's her chasing technique is far better than asthurias. Shes a ridiculous price nrnb for this.

I don't believe benie des dieux goes here I think your taking the comments far too literal. The French fixed brush hurdles are like fences. My interpretation is that she wastes no time in the air over her fences which is to her advantage. And thats also what they meant by the comments.

Her price for this race is completely ridiculous imo. Her advantage is over fences. And her engine is over rated.

I think at 7 mins in to that video, when Ruby says he isn't sure who he'll be riding out of Benie Des Dieux and Vroum Vroum Mag in this race it backs up my thoughts that I was on the right lines about her

Not a mention for Let's Dance.... clearly not up to their level.

Asthuria no mention either

 

[Scooby91]

I think at 7 mins in to that video, when Ruby says he isn't sure who he'll be riding out of Benie Des Dieux and Vroum Vroum Mag in this race it backs up my thoughts that I was on the right lines about her

Not a mention for Let's Dance.... clearly not up to their level.

Asthuria no mention either

Asthurias staying over fences.

Benie des dieux is well exposed over hurdles. Shes not de ben coeur , Literally no chance she'd win this. She's not come over lightly raced like a vroum vroum mag / douvan/ vautour. She fell short over hurdles in france, Shes won a couple of well placed mares chases with a nice chasing technique. As she's had plenty of runs over the French fixed brush hurdles.

You'd be looking at a mark of around 135 -139 over hurdles if they entered her for a handicap.
Shes Honestly massively over hyped.

 

[Kevloaf]

Benie des dieux unlikely runner your also talking chase form. Very likely to follow the mares chase program
Asthuria is not a natural chaser with the technique of what she's shown. Shes a slick hurdler stays well.

Iv watched benie des dieux many times in French hurdle races . Her forms good but nothing special. It's her chasing technique is far better than asthurias. Shes a ridiculous price nrnb for this.

Asthurias staying over fences.

Benie des dieux is well exposed over hurdles. Shes not de ben coeur , Literally no chance she'd win this. She's not come over lightly raced like a vroum vroum mag / douvan/ vautour. She fell short over hurdles in france, Shes won a couple of well placed mares chases with a nice chasing technique. As she's had plenty of runs over the French fixed brush hurdles.

Shes Honestly massively over hyped.

Nothing in this would win it.... without Apple's Jade though ... she may well be over hyped but so are some of the opponents. I don't think she's a great bet, but by the same token I think kicking her out of the 4 would be har.d.. even if ALL these turned up...

Every horse listed with 365 in the without market below (9 Mullins Mares!)

Let's Dance 2/1 - A bit over-rated, the fact she is shorter than VVM NRNB is pretty staggering and the edge she had as being a second season novice is now all gone. I think she was flattered last year a bit and unimpressive last time out to overcome (which you'd anticipate she will) I think BDD definitely has more potential than her, any code. Also see it as a negative that Ruby didn't mentiomn her, and even the fact VVM has been mentioned is a negative for LD, nevermind BDD being drafted in!
Vroum Vroum Mag 11/4 - Yea, fair enough, better horse over any trip or code. Just got to prove she retains the ability but wouldn't be running if there was any doubt whatsoever about her being able to perform
La Bague Au Roi 6/1 - Haven't seen any update on where she'll go. She is better over 3m though so despite a gallant front running effort, she'll ultimately just set the race up and probably get swallowed by anything with more ability. If she turns up at all...I'd go 3m with her.
Augusta Kate 7/1 - Needs further, not good enough to win this race and clearly not held in the same regard as other mares in the stable.
Kayf Grace 9/1 - I do give her a chance, likable but slightly disappointing in the Betfair. Not ideal, might go for a handicap?
Jer's Girl 10/1 - Good bet. No arguement
Verdana Blue 10/1 - Likely to be going for a handicap, beaten by Brillare Momento, and Let's Dance last year... no reason to turn that around?
Brillare Momento 12/1 Not good enough, a mid 130's horse...
Cap Soleil 12/1 - GOing for the mares race. Not good enough
Meri Devie 14/1 - Clearly not the stable pick
Asthuria 20/1 - Beaten by BDD over fences, staying over fences. No chance of reversing even if she did.
Lagotovegas 20/1 - Decent handicapper at best
The Organist 20/1 - Not coming here
Barra - 1 win in 12, not good enough to challenge
Dusky Legend - not good enough
Karalee - not good enough
Midnight Tour - not good enough
Lady Buttons - not good enough
Angels Antics - not good enough
Graceful Legend - not good enough
Indian Stream - Place claims
Midnight Jazz - not good enough
Pravalaguna - not good enough

The one's I'd think would finish ahead are VVM, Jer's Girl, MAYBE Kayf Grace.

The rest I can't see beating her.

On the 3 Ricci mares LD 2/1, VVM 11/4 BDD 7/2 I'd much prefer to be on VVM at 11/4. I wasn't expecting her to run though... and if she doesn't LD and BDD I expect Ruby to pick BDD and finish ahead of LD.




I've spent so much time on this thread talking about who will be finishing second :highly_amused:

 

[Scooby91]

Nothing in this would win it.... without Apple's Jade though ... she may well be over hyped but so are some of the opponents. I don't think she's a great bet, but by the same token I think kicking her out of the 4 would be har.d.. even if ALL these turned up...

Every horse listed with 365 in the without market below (9 Mullins Mares!)

Let's Dance 2/1 - A bit over-rated, the fact she is shorter than VVM NRNB is pretty staggering and the edge she had as being a second season novice is now all gone. I think she was flattered last year a bit and unimpressive last time out to overcome (which you'd anticipate she will) I think BDD definitely has more potential than her, any code. Also see it as a negative that Ruby didn't mentiomn her, and even the fact VVM has been mentioned is a negative for LD, nevermind BDD being drafted in!
Vroum Vroum Mag 11/4 - Yea, fair enough, better horse over any trip or code. Just got to prove she retains the ability but wouldn't be running if there was any doubt whatsoever about her being able to perform
La Bague Au Roi 6/1 - Haven't seen any update on where she'll go. She is better over 3m though so despite a gallant front running effort, she'll ultimately just set the race up and probably get swallowed by anything with more ability. If she turns up at all...I'd go 3m with her.
Augusta Kate 7/1 - Needs further, not good enough to win this race and clearly not held in the same regard as other mares in the stable.
Kayf Grace 9/1 - I do give her a chance, likable but slightly disappointing in the Betfair. Not ideal, might go for a handicap?
Jer's Girl 10/1 - Good bet. No arguement
Verdana Blue 10/1 - Likely to be going for a handicap, beaten by Brillare Momento, and Let's Dance last year... no reason to turn that around?
Brillare Momento 12/1 Not good enough, a mid 130's horse...
Cap Soleil 12/1 - GOing for the mares race. Not good enough
Meri Devie 14/1 - Clearly not the stable pick
Asthuria 20/1 - Beaten by BDD over fences, staying over fences. No chance of reversing even if she did.
Lagotovegas 20/1 - Decent handicapper at best
The Organist 20/1 - Not coming here
Barra - 1 win in 12, not good enough to challenge
Dusky Legend - not good enough
Karalee - not good enough
Midnight Tour - not good enough
Lady Buttons - not good enough
Angels Antics - not good enough
Graceful Legend - not good enough
Indian Stream - Place claims
Midnight Jazz - not good enough
Pravalaguna - not good enough

The one's I'd think would finish ahead are VVM, Jer's Girl, MAYBE Kayf Grace.

The rest I can't see beating her.

On the 3 Ricci mares LD 2/1, VVM 11/4 BDD 7/2 I'd much prefer to be on VVM at 11/4. I wasn't expecting her to run though... and if she doesn't LD and BDD I expect Ruby to pick BDD and finish ahead of LD.




I've spent so much time on this thread talking about who will be finishing second :highly_amused:

Let's dance may well be out of form so could be the case. Or may not even run.

Jers girl may not even run.
Colins sister deffinately dosent
La bague au roi probably dosent.
Augusta Kate dosent run
Verdant blue dosent
Let's dance may not run
Agreed it cuts up to a poor field.

If jers girl runs and runs to her mark id be certain shed finish infront of benie des dieux.

Vroum vroum probably the one But there's risks involved there also. SJ price is tempting ew. However id be dissapointed in myself for backing an antepost nr at this stage if she diddnt spark at home. And her bare form away from last years mares hurdle really isn't that special. All be it she ran a very good race on the day.

Powers for a little while have insinuated both vroum vroum and benie des dieux run.

Pointless point but de Ben coeur would win this easily. I hope some of the horses over here have the stones to take her on at auteuil there's far superior prize money up for grabs. Or may be some sort of bonus could tempt her over here. As were genuinely missing out on some brilliant match ups.

 

[jono]

Apple's Jade:

The trainer's other major hope for the showpiece fixture is Apple's Jade, who will be a warm order to successfully defend her crown in the OLBG Mares' Hurdle on the opening day and Elliott issue an upbeat bulletin on her condition.

"Samcro has to improve, whereas Apple's Jade has been there and done it. Hopefully she can do it again," he said.

"She's in great form. Lisa O'Neill rides her out every day and she's like a bull at the moment - she's mad for a run."

While some have suggested Apple's Jade could hold her own against the boys, Elliott is happy to keep her to her own sex at Cheltenham, but admitted to having one regret when discussing her season so far.

He said: "I think it's the Mares' Hurdle is right race to go for. Some people are saying we should go for the Champion Hurdle or the Stayers', but I was always taught to run in the race you believe you can win and I think it's her best chance of winning a race at the Festival.

"If I made one mistake all year with her I'd say it was not having her in the Irish Champion Hurdle.

"Hindsight is a great thing and at the time Faugheen was still Faugheen, but looking back I should have had her in the Irish Champion Hurdle."

 

[Quevega]

Apple's Jade:

Worth a NRNB for the champion hurdle then if something happens to Buveur dair before the race they'd surely revert here.

 

[jono]

Worth a NRNB for the champion hurdle then if something happens to Buveur dair before the race they'd surely revert here.

Just had a look at her prices for the CH and bet365 have her at a mad 25/1 NRNB. If anyone doesn't mind tying up money then yes i'd agree at the price!!

 

[Quevega]

Just had a look at her prices for the CH and bet365 have her at a mad 25/1 NRNB. If anyone doesn't mind tying up money then yes i'd agree at the price!!

Thought anout it last week and backed at 14's then big gob ryanair bloke came out with his comments
they put it out to 25s. But what he has said today is a pretty big clue that they would seriously look at ch hurdle if Buveur dair is out.
I've just backed it again, It;d be the best injury news ever and would go off favourite IMO

 

[Kevloaf]

Just had a look at her prices for the CH and bet365 have her at a mad 25/1 NRNB. If anyone doesn't mind tying up money then yes i'd agree at the price!!

25/1 about an injury to BVD with money back if he doesn't get injured.

The kind of bet that's no risk at all.

The "angle" for NRNB is when the horse is NOT priced up as if it will be running

365 are OBVIOUSLY incredibly confident Apple's Jade will NOT be running here... because there is NO WAY ON EARTH she'd be 25/1 (when Ch'tibello is the same price)

It won't be for everyone but I've had 3 pts e/w on because I will get my 6 pts back as a worse case scenario and BVD getting injured would be gutting .... I don't mind tying up 6 points to have this in place if the worst does happen.

0% she runs if BVD does. However they're obviously confident she'd have given Faugheen and (obviously) SUpasundae something to worry about in the Irish Champion Hurdle.

 

[FaugheenTheMachine]

Gordy sounds fairly worried about not getting a run into her, they might get lucky it looks a weak renewal this year compared to last season

 

[Kevloaf]

Let’s Dance (Mares' Hurdle, Coral Cup or Stayers' Hurdle)
She hasn’t fired at all this year. I think she has shown me she is getting there - we’ll see what way the stayers’ and mares’ races are working out. I don’t know what race she will run in really.

Yuck. I took 10s for Let's Dance and I wouldn't back her at that price now.

VVM and Benie Des Dieux certainly ahead of her in the pecking order if this stable tour is to be believed...

 

[Quevega]

Benie des dieux 5-1 w/o apples on william hill

 

[Kevloaf]

Benie des dieux 5-1 w/o apples on william hill

I've been debating him with scooby probably boring people for weeks about that, but I can't see BDD out of the 4 places.

I do think VVM is a better horse though!

 

[Quevega]

Sneaky feeling Ruby will ride Benie

 

[Faugheen_Machine]

VVM not declared

 

[Scooby91]

Regardless of whether she goes here. Jers girl ew at 10/1 1/4 with 365 w/o Apple's jade is a steal imo. Still a few to come out the race

 

[kinloch brae]

Although I dismissed her for the Stayers decided to back La Bague Au Roi each-way at double figures for this. She might be better over further but the expected soft ground should make this a sufficient test. I don't see anything other the favourite to beat and she wasn't that impressive last year. Beating Indian Stream 5 lengths is not brilliant. Benie Des Dieux based on performance looks like an overrated bridle merchant. Not surprised that people are falling over themselves to back her but I don't think any of her wins add up to much at all.

 

[Robbante]

Regardless of whether she goes here. Jers girl ew at 10/1 1/4 with 365 w/o Apple's jade is a steal imo. Still a few to come out the race

Agree with that, got to make the frame

 

[jkite16]

VVM Retired!!

What a bloody great mare - a little gutted not to see her out again!