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County Hurdle 2018

Kevloaf said:
Anyone think A Hare Breath has a decent chance in this?

Ben Pauling talks about him being purposfully off since his handicap win at Sandown (had the likes of Caid Du Lin, William H Bonney, Jenkins all beaten) and that this is the target.

Was novice chasing last year (finished 7th in Altior's Arkle) ... but isn't up to that grade over fences... (or hurdles perhaps)?

WH are 20/1 with NR insurance which isn't unfair...

Not backed him but interested to know he's fully been laid out for it
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Got beat in the 2016 Greatwood off 8lbs lower with possible excuses for the ground - has he improved since then?
It appears that Ben Pauling is going to win all the handicaps this year :p
 
Kevloaf said:
Anyone think A Hare Breath has a decent chance in this?

Ben Pauling talks about him being purposfully off since his handicap win at Sandown (had the likes of Caid Du Lin, William H Bonney, Jenkins all beaten) and that this is the target.

Was novice chasing last year (finished 7th in Altior's Arkle) ... but isn't up to that grade over fences... (or hurdles perhaps)?

WH are 20/1 with NR insurance which isn't unfair...

Not backed him but interested to know he's fully been laid out for it
Click to expand...

A horse I looked at earlier in the year Kev. But that win has thrown up nothing bar Jenkins who won twice after that race, everything else from that race has been pretty poor, although Unison has just found the winning thread again now dropped in class.

From a form perspective he is of no interest, however, unlike the others in that race who had had a run, A Hare Breath was racing off the back of a long break, so every chance he will come on for that run too, and for that reason he re-enters calculations for me.
 
Kevloaf said:
Anyone think A Hare Breath has a decent chance in this?

Ben Pauling talks about him being purposfully off since his handicap win at Sandown (had the likes of Caid Du Lin, William H Bonney, Jenkins all beaten) and that this is the target.

Was novice chasing last year (finished 7th in Altior's Arkle) ... but isn't up to that grade over fences... (or hurdles perhaps)?

WH are 20/1 with NR insurance which isn't unfair...

Not backed him but interested to know he's fully been laid out for it
Click to expand...

Long story but ................. i have a customer who owns a leg in a hunter chaser, one of the other owners also has a part share in a horse in Paulings yard. He tells me that the stable staff started backing A Hares Breath 2 months ago for this race with confidence. Take from that what you will but please dont shoot the messenger!!!!!!!
 
Kevloaf said:
Anyone think A Hare Breath has a decent chance in this?

Ben Pauling talks about him being purposfully off since his handicap win at Sandown (had the likes of Caid Du Lin, William H Bonney, Jenkins all beaten) and that this is the target.

Was novice chasing last year (finished 7th in Altior's Arkle) ... but isn't up to that grade over fences... (or hurdles perhaps)?

WH are 20/1 with NR insurance which isn't unfair...

Not backed him but interested to know he's fully been laid out for it
Click to expand...

He’s actually my only bet in the race so far Kev at the boosted 22/1 with Hills insurance. I liked the way he did it at Sandown and been laid out for this. Always a small bets race for me but I think he’ll go there with a real fighting chance.
 
Flying Tiger is a real bet in this for me, think there’s still some 33s about. His season has all been about this one race, a tactic that worked perfectly for nick williams last year with this horse when he won the Fred Winter. Somehow he got left on 140 after the kingwell, he was only beaten 5 lengths and the winner has gone up 11lbs! Well handicapped, course form, been prepped with this one race in mind, hard to see him out of the frame
 
Robbante said:
Flying Tiger is a real bet in this for me, think there’s still some 33s about. His season has all been about this one race, a tactic that worked perfectly for nick williams last year with this horse when he won the Fred Winter. Somehow he got left on 140 after the kingwell, he was only beaten 5 lengths and the winner has gone up 11lbs! Well handicapped, course form, been prepped with this one race in mind, hard to see him out of the frame
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Yeah one I like for this race too. Form ties in nicely with Mohaayed who I also like. He will definitely run provided no issues, as the ground won't be a problem unless it comes up heavy, 33/1 is a nice price too.
 
JackieMoon33 said:
Got beat in the 2016 Greatwood off 8lbs lower with possible excuses for the ground - has he improved since then?
It appears that Ben Pauling is going to win all the handicaps this year :p
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:encouragement::highly_amused:

Might check him out for top trainer at this rate.

Not actually on A Hare Breath. Not sure what price he'd be on the day with better place terms.
 
Probably best to wait for the weights to assess the Irish challenge.
 
Robbante said:
Flying Tiger is a real bet in this for me, think there’s still some 33s about. His season has all been about this one race, a tactic that worked perfectly for nick williams last year with this horse when he won the Fred Winter. Somehow he got left on 140 after the kingwell, he was only beaten 5 lengths and the winner has gone up 11lbs! Well handicapped, course form, been prepped with this one race in mind, hard to see him out of the frame
Click to expand...

That does seem generous handicapping for Flying Tiger.

ANy negative that there doesn't seem to be a jockey that has struck up a partnership with him?

I really like him too, have backed him... just my only concern is the different jockies...
 
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Kevloaf said:
That does seem generous handicapping for Flying Tiger.

ANy negative that there doesn't seem to be a jockey that has struck up a partnership with him?
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Wouldn’t take it as a negative personally, not sure the reason behind it. I think he was better than bare form of his win in the Fred winter last year as well, he was pretty keen and didn’t have the best passage. Just love the way he’s been campaigned for this race and that Williams has previous laying him out like this. The handicapper has given him a real boost imo
 
Seems that it's now policy to not penalise lower grade horses who finish close up in races like the Kingwell.
 
Robbante said:
Flying Tiger is a real bet in this for me, think there’s still some 33s about. His season has all been about this one race, a tactic that worked perfectly for nick williams last year with this horse when he won the Fred Winter. Somehow he got left on 140 after the kingwell, he was only beaten 5 lengths and the winner has gone up 11lbs! Well handicapped, course form, been prepped with this one race in mind, hard to see him out of the frame
Click to expand...

I haven't really wanted to be on any of the juveniles from last year but having looked at Flying Tiger tonight, the more I agree 33/1 is too big. Watching back on his races this season - he's travelled through his races as good as any really on every run. I'd be slightly worried about how much he finds at the end of his races but hopefully a return to better ground can help.

33/1 taken

I hadn't read Johnson's blog until mentioned here. For anyone who hasn't here it is:

I was encouraged by Flying Tiger’s performance in the Betway Kingwell Hurdle.

The plan is now to go the County Hurdle at Cheltenham which I think he can be competitive in.

He’s shown he loves the track having won last year’s Fred Winter which is always a big positive.

I’d like to think some better ground will bring out the best in him and he’s one at a decent price to keep an eye on.
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jono said:
I haven't really wanted to be on any of the juveniles from last year but having looked at Flying Tiger tonight, the more I agree 33/1 is too big. Watching back on his races this season - he's travelled through his races as good as any really on every run. I'd be slightly worried about how much he finds at the end of his races but hopefully a return to better ground can help.

33/1 taken

I hadn't read Johnson's blog until mentioned here. For anyone who hasn't here it is:
Click to expand...

He was strong enough in the finish in the Fred winter last year, am assuming he hasn’t been asked for everything at any point this year with this race firmly in mind. I think there’s every chance he’s improved this year, a couple of lengths behind ch’tibello on unfavoured ground is decent form in the context of this race
 
Robbante said:
He was strong enough in the finish in the Fred winter last year, am assuming he hasn’t been asked for everything at any point this year with this race firmly in mind. I think there’s every chance he’s improved this year, a couple of lengths behind ch’tibello on unfavoured ground is decent form in the context of this race
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The fact he is a Cheltenham winner, based on the thread we highlighted last month... and is 33/1 makes him an almost automatic bet.

I think the case you've made is excellent and completely agree, he'll have a big chance on the day.
 
Kevloaf said:
The fact he is a Cheltenham winner, based on the thread we highlighted last month... and is 33/1 makes him an almost automatic bet.

I think the case you've made is excellent and completely agree, he'll have a big chance on the day.
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Arctic Fire winning last year was the first time in ages a near top weight has gone close, and don’t see that Mullins has one of that quality to throw in this year (bleu et rouge I think wants further). Jezki is the one who might go in off top weight and have a chance, but Max Dynamite’s price is laughable. I’d be really surprised if Flying Angel doesn’t run his best race of the season, and when you factor in his nice mark and the fact he’ll improve if likely better ground I really can’t see him out of the frame
 
If you like Flying Tiger, surely you need to check the weights swing of the other placed horses in last years Fred Winter....
 
JackieMoon33 said:
If you like Flying Tiger, surely you need to check the weights swing of the other placed horses in last years Fred Winter....
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I don’t follow? The only horse carrying more weight than him was Divin Bere in second? His mark is now 141 but regardless of the fact that he just looks shot rather than plotted, Flying Angel for me was far more value for that win than a neck anyway
 
had a couple of quid on him yesterday after watching the Kingwell again, might stick him in a few doubles and trebles after reading this
 
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