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Brown Advisory Plate 2018

kinloch brae

kinloch brae

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Couldn't see a thread for this so here goes.

Tully East obvious likely candidate for this although he is running over the minimum trip tomorrow. The fact that he almost favourite is probably a reflection that the race is not that great for the money on offer. Disappointing earlier in the season but presumably that was primarily down to the ground. Perhaps they are just looking to see him finish his race off better?
 
Tully East solid claims but I also like Long House Hall for this. Great reappearance last time out on ground softer than ideal, he has smart course form finishing 2nd to diamond king. On good ground and assuming there is no bounce then he’d have to be a real contender
 
I like both these shouts.

Tully East - connections have followed a proven plan for this horse - run him over the minimum trip and then step him up in March. He finished 4th in the Martin Pipe doing so and then last season had the exact same prep and only stepped up to this time win the Novice Chase on day one. They've looked to have done the same with him this year (bar the Betvictor Gold Cup but you can understand that with the lure of £90K) so the distance tomorrow is a deliberate tactic i'm sure.

On Long House Hall - do you think this race would be the most likely do you think?
2nd in the Coral Cup along with a win in a handicap hurdle here, both at the intermediate trip.

I just wonder whether the Doncaster run was them giving the 3 mile trip another go? He was favourite at the track on his first go at 3 miles and disappointed in 5th but having been off for so long, the trip seemed to suit last weekend and could maybe be a pointer to future targets? The Ultima on day 1 could come into play?
 
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Had to change the name... not been the Byrne Group since 2014 :p

Personally think Long House Hall at 25/1 NRNB BOG 1/4 4 places with 365 is worth betting on now...

Tully East did follow the same pattern last year, and I remmeber you highlighting it, and I also remember celebrating it winning :highly_amused:

I am going to very much consider the 16/1 with BFSB for him as 8/1 NRNB elsewhere seems a bit short at the moment
 
jono said:
I like both these shouts.

Tully East - connections have followed a proven plan for this horse - run him over the minimum trip and then step him up in March. He finished 4th in the Martin Pipe doing so and then last season had the exact same prep and only stepped up to this time win the Novice Chase on day one. They've looked to have done the same with him this year (bar the Betvictor Gold Cup but you can understand that with the lure of £90K) so the distance tomorrow is a deliberate tactic i'm sure.

On Long House Hall - do you think this race would be the most likely do you think?
2nd in the Coral Cup along with a win in a handicap hurdle here, both at the intermediate trip.

I just wonder whether the Doncaster run was them giving the 3 mile trip another go? He was favourite at the track on his first go at 3 miles and disappointed in 5th but having been off for so long, the trip seemed to suit last weekend and could maybe be a pointer to future targets? The Ultima on day 1 could come into play?
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It’s interesting that they put him over that distance first time out, so you’re right Ultima could be on their minds, he only faded late on and pulled pretty hard so he probably gets the trip. He’s entered in the Ryanair though so took that as a sign that they probably think the intermediate trip is his best still. My worry would be the bounce after such a long lay off
 
Satisfactory from Tully East although I would have liked him to finish a little better. It seems he still needs to do most of his running on the bridle and the tactics will always leave him as a bit of a hostage to fortune. The horlicks at the third last didn't help but I think third was the right position.

Blast Of Koeman is of interest going forward as he was ridden more prominently and still finished off pretty well. Unfortunately, he isn't yet good enough to get in at Cheltenham.
 
kinloch brae said:
Satisfactory from Tully East although I would have liked him to finish a little better. It seems he still needs to do most of his running on the bridle and the tactics will always leave him as a bit of a hostage to fortune. The horlicks at the third last didn't help but I think third was the right position.

Blast Of Koeman is of interest going forward as he was ridden more prominently and still finished off pretty well. Unfortunately, he isn't yet good enough to get in at Cheltenham.
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I was very happy with the run from Tully East there, i'd have ideally liked him to finish a little further back. He would be a clear eye catcher there so hopefully he only goes up a couple of pounds.

Don't have the exact quotes but Alan Fleming was interviewed briefly before the race and you very much got the impression this was a stepping stone to Cheltenham. Along the lines of "hoping he can just come out of the race ok and then onto Cheltenham" and also knew the ground was probably against them again.

Ran a similar race to the BetVictor - travelled very well through the race and got into contention around 2 out. A couple of sloppy jumps but i'd put that down to the ground taking it's toll.

The tactics and his running style do leave him needing a bit of luck in running though which would be a very slight concern but nothing that would stop me backing him
 
If thats Tully East ,not impressed one bit but have been proved wrong before , only further gives me confidence with my two Nicholls selections for race.
 
jono said:
I was very happy with the run from Tully East there, i'd have ideally liked him to finish a little further back. He would be a clear eye catcher there so hopefully he only goes up a couple of pounds.

Don't have the exact quotes but Alan Fleming was interviewed briefly before the race and you very much got the impression this was a stepping stone to Cheltenham. Along the lines of "hoping he can just come out of the race ok and then onto Cheltenham" and also knew the ground was probably against them again.

Ran a similar race to the BetVictor - travelled very well through the race and got into contention around 2 out. A couple of sloppy jumps but i'd put that down to the ground taking it's toll.

The tactics and his running style do leave him needing a bit of luck in running though which would be a very slight concern but nothing that would stop me backing him
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Very happy with Tully East with a view to Cheltenham like you. Still 12s available which I'd chance if I hadn't had the 16s... think the move up in trip angle again will see him in better light, and he's performced well yesterday so I have faith he is still capable.
 
May pay to keep an eye on what Gigginstown have coming into this they seem to have targeted this with some dark horses over the last few years i was over there in 2016 and had a nice touch on Empire Of Dirt, he was very unexposed over in Ireland and had a nice lenient mark i think the GB handicapper can sometimes let a few of the Irish raiders slip through under the radar
 
King's Socks had a few entries over the next few days but has been declared for a graduation chase in Kempton tomorrow. He was a top Juvenile hurdler in France, could be interesting here. Although he only raced on soft or heavy in France so Spring ground would be an unknown. He was short enough in the betting for the Betvictor in 2017 (as a four year old) but picked up an injury. Does anybody know what the injury was? He hasn't been seen since...
 
One i'm keeping my eye on for this race is Value at Risk for Dan Skelton. Backed him last year for the close bros before he was ruled out with injuries. Rated 132 over fences and 145 over hurdles, he will need a little bump to be a real contender for this, but dotting up in a handicap chase at warwick on saturday could be that little bump he needs...
 
I have pulled the trigger on kings socks for this race at 20/1 (boosted) WH.. but on closer inspection can anyone tell me any update on Bouveril.. he’s placed at the last 3 festivals and I assume this is his target, not ran since December but is already lower than his 3rd last year..
 
Fleming has confirmed today this is the plan for Tully East

Alan Fleming reports Tully East on target to try to win at the Cheltenham Festival for the second year running.

The eight-year-old, owned by Barry Connell, landed the Close Brothers Novices' Handicap Chase in 2017 and is likely to go for the Brown Advisory and Merriebelle Stable Plate this time round.

Tully East has been lightly-raced this term and shaped well when third of 20 behind Patricks Park at Leopardstown last weekend.

"He came with a couple of small scratches but nothing to write home about. All's well with him," said Fleming.

"He'll go straight to Cheltenham now. He'll have a couple of entries, but I'd say the two-five handicap would be the main aim."
 
cwright23 said:
I have pulled the trigger on kings socks for this race at 20/1 (boosted) WH.. but on closer inspection can anyone tell me any update on Bouveril.. he’s placed at the last 3 festivals and I assume this is his target, not ran since December but is already lower than his 3rd last year..
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Ask the owners son on Twitter. I havent asked about that horse but aslong as your friendly he would likely reply with an honest answer on whether he'll get an entry or not.
 
I haven’t got Twitter, would any of the FJ family be so kind to ask on my behalf..
 
cwright23 said:
I haven’t got Twitter, would any of the FJ family be so kind to ask on my behalf..
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I will pm him. But if anyone else wants to msg him in the mean time to ask feel free
 
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Been going through this race, and currently 2 or 3 that stand out.

Ballyalton - Shooting down the weights currently, PU on his latest try, but the jury is still out as to whether or not he stays the 3m that he contested LTO. Has the all important festival form, winning the Close Brothers Handicap two seasons back and finishing 2nd (bt 4 1/2L) behind none of other than the great Faugheen (Neptune) in his novice hurdle days, he's obviously talented and this race trip is his ideal IMO. Has had pretty much the same sort of prep as two seasons ago before winning his race at the festival, 4 races to date this season, and his form is a bit hit and miss, again, a bit like last season, which has also meant he has dropped down to a rating of just 138, some 2lb lower than his win at the festival. He is aged 11 now, so time is against him, but Gaultstats do not show this as a necessary negative, as he has course form along with this. 25/1 NRNB.

Baron Alco - Looks to have been laid out for a crack at this race (albeit I do believe there was sort of injury he picked up too), has incredibly smart form against some quality rivals, still waiting on a handicap mark, but must have a fair chance and will back NRNB (20/1) anyway, so should he not turn up it won't be a disaster.

Romain De Senam - This one I really like, made a case for some Nicholls well handicapped horses and this is one of his best I feel. Finished ahead of Tully East, as did Ballyalton in the BetVictor Gold Cup at Cheltenham in November, on ground that wouldn't have suited and is also 1lb better off from his UK rating to Tully Easts Irish rating and that's before Phil Smith has had his say on Tully East. His best form is on Good - Good/Soft. His only piece of festival form was his 2nd to stablemate Diego Du Charmil in the Fred Winter back in 2016, not bad form to have in the book. He is owned by the same owners Bouvreuil had (before being brought by JP), when he finished 2nd to Ballyalton in the Close Brothers Handicap, and I feel compensation may await with this one! 16/1 NRNB!
 
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I think Tully East has a huge chance in this he won the Close Brothers fairly cosily last year off 138.

2nd - Gold Present now 155 was 137
3rd - Two Taffs now 149 was 137
4th - Powersbomb hasn't run over fences this season but should probably be on for the tracker.
5th - Last Goodbye (won handicap at Dublin Racing Festival) now 146 was 140

Tully East was 148 in the BetVictor Gold Cup and for me travelled like an absolute dream. The ground went against him that day and he didn't really see his race out, was beaten 12L. Ran a cracker last time off 144 in Ireland to finish 8L 3rd giving 21lb to the winner over a trip and ground that were not ideal. He's been bumped to 146 in Ireland for that run, it will be interesting to see what Phil Smith does with that. I think he's probably a borderline grade 1 horse.

The worry is winners of this have been low 140s the last few years.
 
Folski said:
I think Tully East has a huge chance in this he won the Close Brothers fairly cosily last year off 138.

2nd - Gold Present now 155 was 137
3rd - Two Taffs now 149 was 137
4th - Powersbomb hasn't run over fences this season but should probably be on for the tracker.
5th - Last Goodbye (won handicap at Dublin Racing Festival) now 146 was 140

Tully East was 148 in the BetVictor Gold Cup and for me travelled like an absolute dream. The ground went against him that day and he didn't really see his race out, was beaten 12L. Ran a cracker last time off 144 in Ireland to finish 8L 3rd giving 21lb to the winner over a trip and ground that were not ideal. He's been bumped to 146 in Ireland for that run, it will be interesting to see what Phil Smith does with that. I think he's probably a borderline grade 1 horse.

The worry is winners of this have been low 140s the last few years.
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I'm not saying Tully East is without a chance, clearly a talented horse in his own right, I just think there will be better handicapped horses at better prices, most notably 2 above that I noted, Ballyalton & Romain De Seman, who finished ahead of him in the BetVictor Gold Cup, and now seemingly likely to also be better off at the weights since that race too, and will both also get the better ground that Tully East also wants.

As far as form goes, Double Shuffle is now (probably not justified really, but finished 1l behind Gold Cup favourite Might Bite LTO) rated 166 and he finished 3rd to Ballyalton at the festival in the Close Brothers Handicap in 2016!
 
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