Kim Muir 2018

[Viking Flagship]

I don't think there's a thread for this yet so, after starting the Grand Annual thread, I seem to be challenging myself to solving some of the most impossible ante-post handicap puzzles of the week!

Squouateur is the obvious one after coming down 3 out when looking menacing in the race last year and running a really promising race behind Anibale Fly last time. However, he hasn’t been missed by the bookies and is not a price I feel tempted to get involved with at this point.

The one that intrigues me is a familiar name to the festival… MALL DINI. Someone gave him a mention in the 4mile thread but I haven’t been able to resist taking a nibble at the standout 33s for this race with BetVictor. He was a close 5th in the race last year and has shown his wellbeing this season without doing anything to threaten his handicap mark. The risk element is that they may go for the 4miler but at 33s I’m prepared to take a chance.

Connections almost certainly won't run Presenting Percy and Mall Dini in the same race and I had convinced myself PP would go the 4mile route, which means MD goes Kim Muir. If PP goes for the RSA then the 4 mile option is opened up to MD, but they may still choose the handicap route anyway off a mark in the low 140s.

Mall Dini declared for the 2m 4f grade 3 at Punchestown tomorrow - I'd expect a quiet performance for handicap mark preservation.

 

[Kevloaf]

Good effort VF. Two tough races to start up as you say :highly_amused:

33/1 is an attractive looking price. Should get in if he did last year, don't see why they'd aim any higher especially when they have PP for the 4miler or RSA anyway.... Katie Walsh on board again?

 

[Viking Flagship]

I'd expect so Kev, yes.

I don't think he's done anything to warrant a loftier mark than last year, so barring a surprisingly good run tomorrow, I wouldn't think getting into the race would be a problem. On the day he's nearing a single figure price for me so just think the 33s is way off mark, even with usual ante-post risk factor.

 

[Denmania]

I know Scooby also likes the look at Minella Till Dawn for this.

Requested a 365 price and they've put in at 50's NRNB.

Worth a look id say.

 

[Kevloaf]

I know Scooby also likes the look at Minella Till Dawn for this.

Requested a 365 price and they've put in at 50's NRNB.

Worth a look id say.

Not rated high enough or shown nearly enough to get in bar the 2m4f hurdle win on 2nd start for me!

Only a quick glance but 50/1 looks short to me haha

 

[cpfcpatriot]

I’d be interested in the opinions of people regarding Broadway Buffalo for this.

He’s got the right connections after The Package a few years back.

 

[Faugheen_Machine]

That's a fair shout cpfc - has good festival form too, having finished 2nd to CoC in the 4 miler.

 

[Faugheen_Machine]

I’d be interested in the opinions of people regarding Broadway Buffalo for this.

He’s got the right connections after The Package a few years back.

Do you know what injury he had to keep him off the course for so long?

 

[Kevloaf]

I’d be interested in the opinions of people regarding Broadway Buffalo for this.

He’s got the right connections after The Package a few years back.

That's a fair shout cpfc - has good festival form too, having finished 2nd to CoC in the 4 miler.

Katie Walsh rode too a couple of times (and Codd once)...

 

[Scooby91]

De plotting shed is running over a trip far too short tomorrow. Could be of interest to me here.

 

[Toffees]

I know Scooby also likes the look at Minella Till Dawn for this.

Requested a 365 price and they've put in at 50's NRNB.

Worth a look id say.

I completely agree. His form over 2m 4+ is pretty good, except for that last run at Punchestown last year. But chasing was always going to be his game in the long run. His Point form worked out and that was on heavy so JP has to have some sort of a plan over fences which ends in a handicap gamble at 3 miles! Squouateur had a prep in February for this last year and was unexposed at the trip. He does love a plot for this too, Sunnyhillboy the obvious one. He was a falling favourite in the 3 mile handicap the year before at his first run at the trip.

If he wins a prep in the next month or so (which he would have to do to get into the race), you'd have to think he'd be 16-20/1. So 50s NRNB is good for me. Maybe a muggy longshot EW multiple too ��

 

[jonthehammer]

Mall Dini being primed for this I believe.

 

[Scooby91]

I know Scooby also likes the look at Minella Till Dawn for this.

Requested a 365 price and they've put in at 50's NRNB.

Worth a look id say.

Only just seen this. But kev is right. He wouldn't get in of his current mark. But I deffinately think he will go some where in a handicap over 3 miles off that mark.

 

[Scooby91]

I completely agree. His form over 2m 4+ is pretty good, except for that last run at Punchestown last year. But chasing was always going to be his game in the long run. His Point form worked out and that was on heavy so JP has to have some sort of a plan over fences which ends in a handicap gamble at 3 miles! Squouateur had a prep in February for this last year and was unexposed at the trip. He does love a plot for this too, Sunnyhillboy the obvious one. He was a falling favourite in the 3 mile handicap the year before at his first run at the trip.

If he wins a prep in the next month or so (which he would have to do to get into the race), you'd have to think he'd be 16-20/1. So 50s NRNB is good for me. Maybe a muggy longshot EW multiple too ��

Good points

 

[Robbante]

Minella Til Dawn entered up Sunday at Thurles. Given above comments might rate as a decent bet if he needs to be winning to make the festival

 

[Scooby91]

Minella Til Dawn entered up Sunday at Thurles. Given above comments might rate as a decent bet if he needs to be winning to make the festival

Interesting watch today obviously needs to do the business to get in. So will find out if his runs are too bad to be true. Or just bad. If he wins I'll take the 50/1 ew

 

[Robbante]

Interesting watch today obviously needs to do the business to get in. So will find out if his runs are too bad to be true. Or just bad. If he wins I'll take the 50/1 ew

I had a little bit on at 11s for today earlier. A couple of his runs he’s looked top class, including when falling at the last in April last year when looking like he’d push Al Boum Photo close. Given that we can assume he’s running to win it today just think 11s was way overpriced.. a run like at fairyhouse would be good enough to take this

 

[Kevloaf]

Interesting watch today obviously needs to do the business to get in. So will find out if his runs are too bad to be true. Or just bad. If he wins I'll take the 50/1 ew

One to back today instead? :highly_amused:

 

[Kevloaf]

Sugar Baron mentioned in Nicky's blog a couple of days back

"He’ll probably take in the Kim Muir en-route to the Scottish Grand National – I think that’s a very good race for him."

If he does, will he have James Bowen on? that 3 lbs might be worth more than the 3 lbs claimed by Joshua Newman last time.... he was beaten 7L in 6th?

20/1 available, 16s NRNB - not a huge price but anyone like him? Had a win at Chelt this year too....

 

[archie]

Bowen is a conditional not an amateur, Kev.