Supreme Novices 2018

[Scooby91]

Yeah think they will have a good idea who is the best of the two, and the best will go to the Supreme for me.

They sure will.

 

[Can't Catch Me]

I still think this could open the door to ND going to the AB again. If Sharjah wins the Deloitte well, I think Ruby will want to ride those three.

And he has beaten the horse who would otherwise be AB fav, twice.

 

[Kevloaf]

I think you might be suprised kev.

I honestly wouldn't. I wouldn't be that surprised if Next Destination went Supreme and Getabird Albert Bartlett. :highly_amused:

Just pointless being so effusive about a Mullins novice target when CLEARLY they haven't made their own mind up and CLEARLY a massive win for Sharjah would change things.

WOuld be stupid not to consider that... absolutely no value in looking at Getabird at 3/1 now thinking it is a good thing.

I'd rather back Sharjah at 10/1 for the Supreme than Getabird at 3/1

Yeah think they will have a good idea who is the best of the two, and the best will go to the Supreme for me.

They will, and most likely at the moment is that Getabird is better.... but it hardly takes a huge leap to see a switch!

 

[Can't Catch Me]

I'm with you Kev and have thought this all along to be fair. That the RR runners will be split up and that Getabird and ND will be split up.

Sharjah has the chance to come to the 'top stable Novice party' and potentially get all three split up!

 

[Kevloaf]

I'm with you Kev and have thought this all along to be fair. That the RR runners will be split up and that Getabird and ND will be split up.

Sharjah has the chance to come to the 'top stable Novice party' and potentially get all three split up!

I wouldn't say it is most likely at this stage.... because Sharjah clearly needs to win the Deloitte for this to happen, but if he did....

Supreme - Sharjah
Ballymore - Getabird
Albert - Next Destination

If he doesn't - Getabird Supreme, ND Ballymore with Sharjah....


would be my guesses

 

[Can't Catch Me]

I don't believe they will even decide themselves until very close to the Festival. All three have to get there fit and well first, after all.

And much can change in the next weeks, I'm sure we all agree!

 

[Scooby91]

I honestly wouldn't. I wouldn't be that surprised if Next Destination went Supreme and Getabird Albert Bartlett. :highly_amused:

Just pointless being so effusive about a Mullins novice target when CLEARLY they haven't made their own mind up and CLEARLY a massive win for Sharjah would change things.

WOuld be stupid not to consider that... absolutely no value in looking at Getabird at 3/1 now thinking it is a good thing.

I'd rather back Sharjah at 10/1 for the Supreme than Getabird at 3/1



They will, and most likely at the moment is that Getabird is better.... but it hardly takes a huge leap to see a switch!

I wouldn't rather back a N/r at 10/1 than getabird for the supreme. That's my honest opinion.

 

[Can't Catch Me]

I wouldn't say it is most likely at this stage.... because Sharjah clearly needs to win the Deloitte for this to happen, but if he did....

Supreme - Sharjah
Ballymore - Getabird
Albert - Next Destination

If he doesn't - Getabird Supreme, ND Ballymore with Sharjah....


would be my guesses

I think the same, although if Sharjah does win the Deloitte well, I wouldn't be confident which way round they would split the RR runners, but would lean towards Getabird Supreme and Sharjah Ballymore myself.

 

[Scooby91]

I don't believe they will even decide themselves until very close to the Festival. All three have to get there fit and well first, after all.

And much can change in the next weeks, I'm sure we all agree!

They can. But theres a difference between what your eyes and the betting markets are telling you and what you want to happen to better your antepost bets.

 

[Can't Catch Me]

Sharjah's sole flat win was in a race just short of 1m5f and he only just got up in the last 100 yards! So I think stamina won't be a problem for him.

Nor will it for Getabird of course, as a 3m winning pointer, but the Moscow Flyer is such a strong Supreme trial for the stable, and he showed so much zip, I think that will convince them.

 

[Can't Catch Me]

They can. But theres a difference between what your eyes and the betting markets are telling you and what you want to happen to better your antepost bets.

Scooby. I never give an opinion based on my antepost bets... that would be pointless. Just on how I see it at that time.

I would add though, I am unsure how you can be so dogmatic about what will happen. Sharjah could well annihilate the Deloitte field showing just as much pace as Getabird did in the Moscow Flyer. And you can't tell me with any confidence that won't make their decision tough.

You can look at what the betting markets are telling you now, but not what they might tell you in early Feb.

 

[Kevloaf]

They can. But theres a difference between what your eyes and the betting markets are telling you and what you want to happen to better your antepost bets.

Yes that is true, there is a difference, but that isn't forming my opinion... but I could say that about your Sharjah bets.... you have backed at 3 figures for the Ballymore... so want him to go there.

If he hacks up in the Deloitte, you think it is cut and dry he goes up to a distance he has never done before...rather than Getabird... who they STILL are saying it isn't clear where he goes?

They've said on better ground he might go further, he surprised them, he's a PTP background and they will be split up

 

[Scooby91]

Yes that is true... but I could say that about your Sharjah bets.... you have backed at 3 figures for the Ballymore... so want him to go there.

If he hacks up in the Deloitte, you think it is cut and dry he goes up to a distance he has never done before...rather than Getabird... who they STILL are saying it isn't clear...

They've said on better ground he might go further, he surprised them, he's a PTP background and they will be split up

They will be split up.
Getabird supreme
Sharjah ballymore.

It's not to do with my bets honestly. Look at the way sharjah settles. Look at the way he finishes his races.
Look at the way getabird is priced for the ballymore that wouldn't be there for sure. I can see why sharjah is priced as he is for the ballymore. He's not the 1st string atm. And samcro makes the market.

Look at getabirds jumping and high cruising speed he beat mengli khan. How do you know sharjah beats mengli khan?

 

[Kevloaf]

They will be split up.
Getabird supreme
Sharjah ballymore.

It's not to do with my bets honestly. Look at the way sharjah settles. Look at the way he finishes his races.
Look at the way getabird is priced for the ballymore that wouldn't be there for sure. I can see why sharjah is priced as he is for the ballymore. He's not the 1st string atm.

Look at getabirds jumping and high cruising speed he beat mengli khan. How do you know sharjah beats mengli khan?

Where they end up and what race thay are best suited to, has been PROVEN to not be a direct correlation for Mullins horses in the same ownership.

I don't know Sharjah beats Mengli Khan... I also don't know Mengli Khan beats Sharjah. I do know Mengli Khan was beaten and I don't see why if MK didn't crash out you could be so sure he'd have been within 9L of Sharjah at the line.

Before Getabird did it, you wouldn't have had Getabird a 9L better horse.

All my point has been is, that IF Sharjah wins the Deloitte impressivly, he could eend up in the Supreme. They're certainly keeping the options open.

 

[Scooby91]

Scooby. I never give an opinion based on my antepost bets... that would be pointless. Just on how I see it at that time.

I would add though, I am unsure how you can be so dogmatic about what will happen. Sharjah could well annihilate the Deloitte field showing just as much pace as Getabird did in the Moscow Flyer. And you can't tell me with any confidence that won't make their decision tough.

You can look at what the betting markets are telling you now, but not what they might tell you in early Feb.

He can't show as much because mengli khan is not there. And they've all been beaten by him.

 

[Scooby91]

Where they end up and what race thay are best suited to, has been PROVEN to not be a direct correlation for Mullins horses in the same ownership.

I don't know Sharjah beats Mengli Khan... I also don't know Mengli Khan beats Sharjah. I do know Mengli Khan was beaten and I don't see why if MK didn't crash out you could be so sure he'd have been within 9L of Sharjah at the line.

Before Getabird did it, you wouldn't have had Getabird a 9L better horse.

All my point has been is, that IF Sharjah wins the Deloitte impressivly, he could eend up in the Supreme. They're certainly keeping the options open.

I don't think mengli khan was beaten at all that's where we differ.

Sharjah could end up there but at 10/1 with bf I wouldnt be taking that chance when I'd be confident he won't be.

 

[Kevloaf]

I also don't understand what you mean about Sharjah's price in the Ballymore?

He is either not quoted or as big as 25/1.... the market isn't telling me he is "not the first string" ... it tells me he isn't likely to run. That might be wrong, but how can Sharjah be 25/1 compared to around 6/1 in the Ballymore but much closer in the Supreme betting?

I think I might have misunderstood that part?

 

[Can't Catch Me]

He can't show as much because mengli khan is not there. And they've all been beaten by him.

I think that's a bit simplistic TBH. If he thrashes a Grade One field, I don't think assessing that race will hinge on whether Mengli Khan was there or not.

But anyway, seems little point going on about this, think we all know where we stand! You are sure plans have been finalised already and myself and Kev think things could still change.

 

[Kevloaf]

I don't think mengli khan was beaten at all that's where we differ.

Well I am not saying it either way... he went out too early to tell... but that wouldn't make me confident Getabird is better.

If MK was beaten by 2L, or beat Sharjah... then this wouldn't be a talking point.

Sharjah HASN'T been beaten by MK, so to be confident MK is better than him, at this point, is misguided. He might end up being, but no way you know that yet.

 

[Scooby91]

Well I am not saying it either way... he went out too early to tell... but that wouldn't make me confident Getabird is better.

If MK was beaten by 2L, or beat Sharjah... then this wouldn't be a talking point.

Sharjah HASN'T been beaten by MK, so to be confident MK is better than him, at this point, is misguided. He might end up being, but no way you know that yet.

I'm basically saying you know getabird beat megli khan theres no guessing there. You know he has a good chance in the supreme.

Sharjah you don't know. Mengli Kahn was still travelling well.
You dont know what his chances are in the supreme even if he wins the Deloitte because he hasn't beat the form horse.

Surely you'd sent the one you know what chance they've got.


If sharjah was working the house down at home Id agree. But watch mullins interview after he won the slowly run race. Iv avoided him for the supreme ever since.