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Ballymore (Previously Neptune) Novice Hurdle 2018

SAMCRO said:
thats the way i took it. Really impressive performance, reminded me of Faugheen.
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Cannot see any other race now then...

PP have him at 20s Supreme, 5s Ballymore.... I know it isn't the same as the Mullins yard but the Irish bookie wouldn't be laying 20s about this horse if he was going to turn up surely?
 
Well that was better than i expected , boom Samcro. Whats going to come second then comes march , fresh air i suspect.
 
According to The Racing Post ratings Samcro ran to RPR 146. To give that figure some context these are the figures achieved by previous winners of the Neptune.
The winner of last years Neptune ran to RPR 152 at the festival.
Yorkhill RPR156.
Windsor Park RPR152
Faugheen RPR155
The New One RPR159
Simonsig RPR 162!!!!
 
In fact just looked at those previous 6 renewals of the Neptune and looked at the RPR the 3rd placed horse achieved and they were as follows, 149,146,147,149,151,148. So the 146 achieved today in the RPR assessors eye's is just short of what is needed to place in most Neptunes. With this is in mind Im wondering if the 7/1 available isn't a shade on the high side!!!!! Didn't think it be saying that ever at this stage of the season!
 
billymag said:
In fact just looked at those previous 6 renewals of the Neptune and looked at the RPR the 3rd placed horse achieved and they were as follows, 149,146,147,149,151,148. So the 146 achieved today in the RPR assessors eye's is just short of what is needed to place in most Neptunes. With this is in mind Im wondering if the 7/1 available isn't a shade on the high side!!!!! Didn't think it be saying that ever at this stage of the season!
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Ricci has 18 novices antey, winter soldier, Francin etc..., mullins/ Jared sullivan have some nice ones.... real steel...... . Jp has many , You have the ptp horses like cool getaway palmers hill, white moon ,slate house. Madison to Monroe ..... all going straight over hurdles
Bumper horses, lalor , red jack, early doors, getabird, Sam brown, if the cap fits , Pym , western Ryder, hollow graphic, claimantakingforgan

Despite the rpr I genuinely think if the cap fits, did more on his debut than samcro,
I like samcro, but he's definitely over hyped, for what hes done so far, which for me is Good, as he takes up a good chunk of the market for aslong as he stays unbeaten.
 
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Quite interesting billy. I try not to take the ratings in to account this early on (as I am sure you're not doing) but certainly food for thought!

I do think 7/1 is a decent little price. A few horses I like are still 7/1., unfortunately not all in the same place :devilish: - but no more on Samcro for now..... he was double figures for any race a week or so ago so we need to just let some other horses have a go at getting a rating on the board
 
I think RPRs are a useful guide, but are only someones opinion, albeit based on evidence and stats built up over years. Im genuinely excited after seeing Samcros debut over hurdles today and on top of the fact that he was the highest rated bumper horse last year I actually think 7/1 is a reasonable price.
Scooby91 you make a great point though about the number of horses we are going to see coming out in the near future and some of these will also be running to some big figures. I would struggle though to accept that If The Cap Fits did more on debut than Samcro did today but I respect your opinion and look forward to seeing him back up that run in better company, just like Samcro is going to have to do. Feels like the season is really getting going.
 
My working is as follows.
If the cap fits 1st won with any ammount In hand

2nd beaten 8 lengths
blue cavelier won his bumper then had nice horses braquen dor and ballyhill behind him when stepped up in class, he since moved to Nichols who trains braquen dor

3rd beaten 14 lengths
station master won 2 ptps and a class 3 bumper at Aintree by 11 lengths in very nice fashion.

4th beaten 19 lengths
ennifscey oscar was 2nd in the Aintree champion bumper.

I think it was a hot novice hurdle, I expect him to win in the same fashion under a penalty and the horses behind to go on and be very competitive in the novice ranks.

Just my opinion and obviously samcro will be stepped up and has every chance,
 
Yes good points Scooby look forward to seeing him out again soon.
 
Very interesting point on ratings billy, 7/1 still a decent price for me, but feel I have enough on at the moment, will move onto next ante-post bet
 
billymag said:
Yes good points Scooby look forward to seeing him out again soon.
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I would win considerably more on samcro atm, as I would like to see if the cap fits going left handed next, but if / when he does and goes in, in the same style, i will be waiting to pull the trigger.
 
For a first run that rating is huge, and youd imagine that he will be even better over further.

These were the ratings achieved on debut for the following horses:

Vautour 140
Min 142
Altior 136
Faugheen 138
Douvan 143

Obviously the RPR is just someones opinion based on the evidence he has available and the big rating is helped by having Jack Dilenger in the field who has a mark of 127 and appeared to run his race. At this stage of their careers there is obviously a lot of guess work and time will tell if the RPR is accurate but it was a great start to his career, very exciting.
 
Which ever way we look at it Gigginstown must be licking their lips for the season ahead, none of Samcro, Petit Mouchoir or Death Duty could have done much more than they did over the last 2 days.
 
Minds eye was beaten a cosy 6 1/2 lengths by a horse that was beaten over 50 lengths by both blue grass princess and fayonagh in mares bumpers, and the 3rd was sharps choice who has ran plenty enough to warrant his rating of 116.

I really don't get how they get that rpr.
That's the last time I will mention samcro as he's the biggest winner in my neptune book atm, but just think his price is ridiculous.
 
Kevloaf said:
hahahahha :highly_amused:

A legendary Fat Jockey contributor.... can't even read a race card :devilish: we'll have people jumping back to betfair if you keep that up :highly_amused:
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Highly embarrassing:highly_amused:

I was in the pub and it had no sound on. It was a huge relief when I realised he'd won.
 
Nice opener for WHITE MOON today, he travelled well and quickened to put the race to bed. He beat nothing of any note, another one that could be useful up in grade.
 
Lads if if learnt anything from last year, it's pick your fancied horse (samcro) get your money on at the price you want to the stake you want then forget about it and keep looking for something else.. All last year I kept topping up and topping up on my horses, doing multiples and accumulators hoping for a big win.. Then pretty much all of them got injured, changed race or lost.. My 2 biggest wins were the 1st 2 ante post bets I placed the summer before on special tiara and pacha du polder.. Just 2 simple singles £25 at 25/1..
 
cwright23 said:
Lads if if learnt anything from last year, it's pick your fancied horse (samcro) get your money on at the price you want to the stake you want then forget about it and keep looking for something else.. All last year I kept topping up and topping up on my horses, doing multiples and accumulators hoping for a big win.. Then pretty much all of them got injured, changed race or lost.. My 2 biggest wins were the 1st 2 ante post bets I placed the summer before on special tiara and pacha du polder.. Just 2 simple singles £25 at 25/1..
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Agree 100%, absolutely my method.
 
Palmers hill entered up over course and distance Friday. Gordon has sent a sighter over, although obviously he will run under his own credit.
 
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