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Arkle 2018

Kevloaf said:
The more I stare at this market the more I think it is there for the absolute taking with Finian's Oscar!
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Kev, I agree with you, the more I watch the replays and look over the form I can't see FO taking on the RSA, that for me is a certainty, then it boils down to the Arkle & JLT. He got outstayed (just) by Bacardys @ Punchestown, and Death Duty back in 3rd would have preferred 3m, I'm sure of it. The Aintree form for me isn't all that either, I think Messire Des Obeaux contesting this race was an after thought, as the Neptune was his main target, and the jury is still out on Captain Forez, though I suspect he was brought with chasing in mind!

I think an unrelenting 2m chase will be perfect for FO, he shows enough speed for it, though probably won't back him until I've seen him jump a fence in public.

On a side note, Captain Forez could well be overpriced for same connections of the great Al Ferof who contested this race in 2012, finishing behind Sprinter Sacre, Cue Card & Menorah on that occasion!
 
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ComplyOrDie said:
I think an unrelenting 2m chase will be perfect for FO, he shows enough speed for it!
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This is exactly my thinking. I'm just slightly disappointed to read CT's comments about him being a two and a half miler. It's certainly enough to stop me backing him again at this stage.
 
I suppose they'd committed to Neptune where I thought a front running strong 2m in the supreme would have worked.

I think FO is the only horse of those mentioned to win over 2 miles ... in fairness though, we need to see how these horses actually jump don't we. Sprinter Sacre as the obvious 'go-to'
 
Keep coming back to this race and thinking it is there for the taking, so much so that I have now just this minute backed Captain Forez @ 50/1 for it, though have also just read (after placing said bet :confused:) they are sticking to hurdles with CF this season, god knows what they are thinking!!
 
ComplyOrDie said:
Keep coming back to this race and thinking it is there for the taking, so much so that I have now just this minute backed Captain Forez @ 50/1 for it, though have also just read (after placing said bet :confused:) they are sticking to hurdles with CF this season, god knows what they are thinking!!
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Bet aside, as they were going down the hurdle route supposedly but absolutely terrible news that Captain Forez lost his life tonight :( First Neon Wolf now CF, I'm genuinely gutted about this as really liked CF. Sad times!
 
Sad news CoD. He was a talented horse who could have excelled over fences.
 
Do we think River Wylde is likely to go here?
 
Innoko said:
Do we think River Wylde is likely to go here?
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I think its the plan yes. He's on my radar for sure. I know he is going chasing and not seen any quotes to say he will get or wants further.
 
billymag said:
Petit Mouchoir looks the stand out bet in this market, especially with the question marks against all the others at the head of the market
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Glad I read through the whole thread this time around, as PM seems to be the market leader, yet little chat about him, his hurdles form is a level above the current market rivals and we know Gigginstown buy horses as future chasers so he should jump a fence well enough (fingers crossed), and if word is to be believed DDS & Melon both stay over hurdles, FO goes for the JLT, then his next market rival is Brain Power, whom he stuffed when finishing 3rd in this years CH, Yanworth goes up in trip, Ballyandy looked in need of every yard of his debut run, so I'd expect him to race beyond 2m, there really isn't an awful lot to be worried about IMO for PM, apart from connections possibly stepping him up in trip, though there has been money for him in this race already.

Something that should be taken with a pinch of salt, though can be viewed as another positive, is PM's Dam's Sire Denham Red was also the Sire of 2015 Arkle winner Un De Sceaux, and he'll be the same age as what UDS was when winning this race!

Henry De Bromhead has also trained the winner of this race previously with Sizing Europe, so again, another small positive.

14/1 still available seems fair enough for a horse in a race that historically falls apart in numbers.
 
Yes I would also add to the above that one of the reasons ive not considered Brain Power at the moment is his record at Chelt and indeed left handed over obstacles, where he has been soundly beaten on all occasions, he would need to prove he can do it left handed to me before even considering him.

The other horse who i know is being targeted at the Arkle and has been bought for chasing is Sceau Royal. I know he doesnt have a sexy profile but a 154 rating over hurdles makes him worthy of consideration for this, especially with the question marks already mentioned and indeed ill back him ew for this before he runs tomorrow at Warwick.

But I do think that Petit Mouchoir is still the stand out price in the market.
 
Kevloaf said:
I think its the plan yes. He's on my radar for sure. I know he is going chasing and not seen any quotes to say he will get or wants further.
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Thanks!

In which case the 25-1 on offer seems a nice price. IF we take the stand that last years Supreme will turn out to be decent, NH loves a 2mile chaser and the horses currently priced up who won't be running in this...

I'm rapidly talking myself into my opening Arkle punt...
 
ComplyOrDie said:
Glad I read through the whole thread this time around, as PM seems to be the market leader, yet little chat about him, his hurdles form is a level above the current market rivals and we know Gigginstown buy horses as future chasers so he should jump a fence well enough (fingers crossed), and if word is to be believed DDS & Melon both stay over hurdles, FO goes for the JLT, then his next market rival is Brain Power, whom he stuffed when finishing 3rd in this years CH, Yanworth goes up in trip, Ballyandy looked in need of every yard of his debut run, so I'd expect him to race beyond 2m, there really isn't an awful lot to be worried about IMO for PM, apart from connections possibly stepping him up in trip, though there has been money for him in this race already.

Something that should be taken with a pinch of salt, though can be viewed as another positive, is PM's Dam's Sire Denham Red was also the Sire of 2015 Arkle winner Un De Sceaux, and he'll be the same age as what UDS was when winning this race!

Henry De Bromhead has also trained the winner of this race previously with Sizing Europe, so again, another small positive.

14/1 still available seems fair enough for a horse in a race that historically falls apart in numbers.
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Amazingly I can't believe I haven't mentioned Petit Mouchoir yet! I definitely have had a conversation about him with someone! I have 1.5 pts each way at 16/1 and think 14s is a great price still, and had a double on Tuesday with Samcro at 186/1.

We have all agreed unless FO diverts there is nothing on hurdles form that can get flose to PM's level. I'm a big fan of PM - doubts are (as you say) the owners like to step up in trip, and he was an extra season over hurdles, which doesn't tend to bode well.... but absolutely a standout with 2m Cheltenham form at this stage.

My only other real money bet at this stage is River Wylde at 25/1 0.5 pts each way from a week or so ago so I am pleased someone else is interested :)

I do have a couple of free bets on Finian's Oscar at 16/1 too.
 
Find this race tough to gauge at this stage. I've got a bit on River Wylde, Finians Oscar and Movewiththetimes. The latter could be a key horse for me, and the champion hurdle a key race in the context of this one. If the Champion Hurdle is looking strong - if you've got buveur, yorkhill and faugheen looking good and heading for that race - then there could be a late decision to switch Defi to the Arkle (especially with the stats so against 5 year olds). If the competition isn't looking that strong in the Champion Hurdle, and if Movewiththetimes is looking good over fences, then I think he'll let Defi take his chance in the Champion. He does seem to like a 1-2 in that race, and I think Movewiththetimes could become a worthy contender for the Arkle if eeking out a little improvement over fences
 
You'd also think either Melon or Chacun Pour Soi will end up here as Ricci's representative. Faugheen Champion Hurdle, Melon Arkle, Chacun Pour Soi JLT could work, obviously dependent on Faugheen's well being
 
Robante said:
You'd also think either Melon or Chacun Pour Soi will end up here as Ricci's representative. Faugheen Champion Hurdle, Melon Arkle, Chacun Pour Soi JLT could work, obviously dependent on Faugheen's well being
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Maybe so, IF Melon was one of Ricci's horses, but he isn't mate, or at least he wasn't last time I checked! Chacun Pour Soi may come here, but has other race entries too.
 
ComplyOrDie said:
Maybe so, IF Melon was one of Ricci's horses, but he isn't mate, or at least he wasn't last time I checked! Chacun Pour Soi may come here, but has other race entries too.
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Haha valid point, rookie error, getting flustered by all the horses and connections trying to assess. I guess Chacun Pour Soi will be aimed simply at the race he stands the best chance of winning then, dependent how he looks early season. Bit wary as could be another American Tom. Would be all over Melon for this but no way he wins the Champion Hurdle this year - will run creditably I'm sure but far too hot a race
 
Yeah, I think this time last year Ricci had Min, American Tom & Royal Caviar all in the betting for this race, I believe Min & American Tom both got injured before the festival last year so it was left to Royal Caviar, who failed to land any blow.

This festival I think Chacun Pour Soi is the only one in the betting for him currently, who is highly thought of, and only time will tell.

Totally unsure about Melon currently, will wait and see where he starts his season at.
 
As it stands, Melon would look to be staying over hurdles this season but early days yet.
 
archie said:
As it stands, Melon would look to be staying over hurdles this season but early days yet.
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Thanks Archie - the champion hurdle dream is still alive :triumphant:
 
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