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JLT Novices 2018

Innoko

Innoko

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Noticed that Ballyandy (seems like a forgotten horse) is entered on Thursday over 2m 4f.

Suggests this race is his target?

A couple of quotes of 20-1 floating about. Thoughts?
 
Big runner Innoko, assuming this is his target.
I was surprised NTD only sent him over further than 2m the once last season and I was at Sandown that day when he failed by a short distance to get the better of Messire dex Obeaux who himself proved to be a top table performer.

Ballyandy has speed too so I wouldn't rule out the Arkle and I would question how strong this years Arkle will be...
 
I am of the opinion the 2017 supreme first half dozen home will be worth following this forthcoming season.

Hope i am right , invested already including Ballyandy ,he really impressed me and looks like this trip will bring out the improvement along with the fences required to be a player , big scopey beast.
 
I'll post something a bit more comprehensive I the next coupe of days but in short, this could be one of the best races of the year!
 
Istabraq said:
Big runner Innoko, assuming this is his target.
I was surprised NTD only sent him over further than 2m the once last season and I was at Sandown that day when he failed by a short distance to get the better of Messire dex Obeaux who himself proved to be a top table performer.

Ballyandy has speed too so I wouldn't rule out the Arkle and I would question how strong this years Arkle will be...
Click to expand...

Thanks Ista.

Interesting that Ballyandy who has run over 16f in ten of his eleven races, starts his chasing career over 20f.

Flying Angel (NTD) started and won the same Perth race which Ballyandy runs in tomorrow. And in turn then ran in the JLT.

Points to the JLT I guess. But like you say, the Arkle looks at this stage, weaker, and he doesn't lack speed at all.
 
Will be interesting to see how Ballyandy gets on over 20f on HEAVY!
Could be a real test of stamina...

We'll soon find out..
 
Not bad for a first run of the season.
Conditions would have played more into Fagans hands and Ballyandy could have easily folded
I'm sure that NTD will be happy enough
 
Looks like he needs the trip... Rules out the Arkle?

Hills gone 33's...
 
I feel like this was the first race of the season. Last year for me it was Ballyandy and Moon Racer.... this year Ballyandy and Fagan. I do think Fagan is much more of a 3m+ horse, and Ballyandy has sprinted away when he has needed to, to get it done... so it wasn't anything to go crazy about on literal form.

Ballyandy wasn't particularly fast over his fences, so I would be surprised if he ended up as an Arkle horse without brushing up (which OBVIOUSLY he is well entitled to do over his next few runs) but not many 2 milers in the past winners of the race to be fair so JLT looks pretty obvious at this stage - no way he'll want the trip this year either? As I said earlier/elsewhere I would have prefered him to run in the Neptune and I do feel quite confident they won't be lured towards the Arkle.

I might have 1 pt at 33/1 for ther JLT (I see it has been cut to 14s in a place today!) with a view to trading out later in the season...
 
I think both horses ran with credit and both trainers will be happy. Heavy ground on the first run of the season this early isn't the best gauge but i'd be amazed, based on that run if they dropped Ballyandy in trip now. If anything I'd say the RSA over the Arkle trip wise could suit best. Fagan could be one for the National Hunt Chase this season? I know a few others and myself gave him a mention last season. Definitely the further the better for him
 
I was disappointed in that , hoping to see more from Ballyandy in all honesty.

Either Ballyandy ran below par ,Fagin ran above expectations in ground , Fagin has improved for fences , Ballyandy carrying same condition as his trainer.

Lets hope Ballyandy moved up in trip ,seems we all in agreement further the better.
 
The Beast said:
I was disappointed in that , hoping to see more from Ballyandy in all honesty.

Either Ballyandy ran below par ,Fagin ran above expectations in ground , Fagin has improved for fences , Ballyandy carrying same condition as his trainer.

Lets hope Ballyandy moved up in trip ,seems we all in agreement further the better.
Click to expand...

Fagan is a decent horse and I'd expect him to be lining up in the 4m at Cheltenham in march. I thought it was a decent debut over fences given the ground and opposition.
 
Rathvinden was quite impressive yesterday and I see he is being aimed at the Drinmore (2m4f). Quite a few previous winners of the race have ended up wanting further to show their best but as a novice, I can see this being the target? Rathvinden did place in the Neptune behind Faugheen over the same distance and on his other visit to the track was second to Red SHerlock (who was highly hyped and only ran once since so I assume the worst)?

33/1 available where quoted. Anyone interested ?
 
Kevloaf said:
Rathvinden was quite impressive yesterday and I see he is being aimed at the Drinmore (2m4f). Quite a few previous winners of the race have ended up wanting further to show their best but as a novice, I can see this being the target? Rathvinden did place in the Neptune behind Faugheen over the same distance and on his other visit to the track was second to Red SHerlock (who was highly hyped and only ran once since so I assume the worst)?

33/1 available where quoted. Anyone interested ?
Click to expand...

Save your money Kev and top up on FO to win this.
To be honest I think Rathvinden is picking up races now before the big guns come out. I don't see him troubling the top horses
 
KingSprinterSacre said:
Save your money Kev and top up on FO to win this.
To be honest I think Rathvinden is picking up races now before the big guns come out. I don't see him troubling the top horses
Click to expand...

Here is a question... do we have any 'top horses' this year in the novice chase ranks?

Nothing is unbeaten, and history proves time and time again that when they all beat each other there probably isn't a standout... they can all 'have their day'.

Neon Wolf, Finian's Oscar and Death Duty we're the three I'd have had up as the top prospects, while Yanworth brings a high level of form but has to be an anomoly for horses with an extra year over hurdles. Bacardys wasn't top class all season, Willoughby Court is about as solid as we have? I wouldn't say any of them are top class relative to some recent seasons, when some of the "top class" novices would not (and PROVED) they we're not out of place in open company (Coneygree, Altior, Thistlecrack)

just a thought.... :devilish:
 
Kevloaf said:
Here is a question... do we have any 'top horses' this year in the novice chase ranks?

Nothing is unbeaten, and history proves time and time again that when they all beat each other there probably isn't a standout... they can all 'have their day'.

Neon Wolf, Finian's Oscar and Death Duty we're the three I'd have had up as the top prospects, while Yanworth brings a high level of form but has to be an anomoly for horses with an extra year over hurdles. Bacardys wasn't top class all season, Willoughby Court is about as solid as we have? I wouldn't say any of them are top class relative to some recent seasons, when some of the "top class" novices would not (and PROVED) they we're not out of place in open company (Coneygree, Altior, Thistlecrack)

just a thought.... :devilish:
Click to expand...

To be honest I believe FO is a top horse. He won his point and within 70 odd days he had won a grade 1 over hurdles.
he only lost his final race of the season by a short head after being collared late on. To have such a good hurdle season when chasing is meant to be his game marked him out as a very special horse to me. As you can tell I am excited by him.
As for the others I agree. I'm hoping death duty will be top class though. Tomorrow will be interesting.
 
Faugheen_Machine said:
Fagan is a decent horse and I'd expect him to be lining up in the 4m at Cheltenham in march. I thought it was a decent debut over fences given the ground and opposition.
Click to expand...

If Fagin lining up in four miler , id suggest Fagin is a plodder and nothing exceptional and wont be contesting the top graded races. Fair horse yes , but i wouldnt be expecting fireworks ,more a gentile sparkler.
 
KingSprinterSacre said:
To be honest I believe FO is a top horse. He won his point and within 70 odd days he had won a grade 1 over hurdles.
he only lost his final race of the season by a short head after being collared late on. To have such a good hurdle season when chasing is meant to be his game marked him out as a very special horse to me. As you can tell I am excited by him.
As for the others I agree. I'm hoping death duty will be top class though. Tomorrow will be interesting.
Click to expand...

Looks like we're down to just 1 top class novice then! 10/1 this race or 6/1 any race may look silly BUT

I haven't backed Rathvinden yet, but we can surely assume Mullins will have one of the first 3 in the betting for this race, he has targeted it for years now

2011 Noble Prince Tony McCoy Paul Nolan (11/1 Blazing Tempo - Ruby still riding for Nicholls at this point)
2012 Sir Des Champs Davy Russell Willie Mullins
2013 Benefficient Bryan Cooper Tony Martin (Mullins had a 12/1 shot Marito)
2014 Taquin du Seuil Tony McCoy Jonjo O'Neill (Felix Yonger 7/2f - 4th)
2015 Vautour Ruby Walsh Willie Mullins
2016 Black Hercules Ruby Walsh Willie Mullins
2017 Yorkhill Ruby Walsh Willie Mullins

In the betting we have Footpad, Melon, Bacardys, Chacun Pour Soi, Invitation Only, Rathvinden ..... I can't see Melon stepping up in trip/chasing so I'll rule that out. Bacardys almost certainly further...

Any news on Footpad, just about to go out so not got time to look....
Chacun Pour Soi - 33/1 shot and put up as a horse to follow by Ricci and Joe Chambers....
Invitation Only - again, no idea if chasing...
Rathvinden - placed on both visits to Cheltenham including the festival...

at 33/1 you can see why I've given it a double take at least?
 
Oh yes mate i can certainly see why you have made the case. I just tend to be wary about horses out from the summer who are picking up wins while most of the proper jumpers are on their holidays. Think hes been on the go since July and has been busy enough.
 
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