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I'd be more surprised if Irish Points target isn't the Jack Richard's
 
Another dud ? I see the well bred Power of Knowledge has 1st hurdle run today for Mullins. 33/1 with PP but 100/1 with Bet365 for the Supreme!
 
Istabraq said:
Do you not think he regressed last season ?
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Not sure Ista if I'm honest. He was campaigned differently and he seemed to bounce at Cheltenham. He is one you can usually guarantee he will give his running whether winning or placing but he might have done a Brighterdaysahead and left his best run in Ireland before Cheltenham. I wouldn't be surprised one bit to see him revert back to the old way of how they used to campaign him.
 
Yosser said:
Not sure Ista if I'm honest. He was campaigned differently and he seemed to bounce at Cheltenham. He is one you can usually guarantee he will give his running whether winning or placing but he might have done a Brighterdaysahead and left his best run in Ireland before Cheltenham. I wouldn't be surprised one bit to see him revert back to the old way of how they used to campaign him.
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You say he was campaigned differently he has always skipped DRF and been given plenty of time between his prep and Cheltenham, this has worked fairly well given he has won a Stayers and finished second with this approach, he just seemed to be beaten too easily for me at Cheltenham, he was then fairly easily picked up at Punchestown by a retiring Bob Ollinger.
We can always forgive a horse a below par run but when they string a couple of them together you have to ask questions and as they're rising 10 regression is the obvious conclusion, I think it would have to be a weak renewal (which is very possible) for him to figure....
 
Istabraq said:
You say he was campaigned differently he has always skipped DRF and been given plenty of time between his prep and Cheltenham, this has worked fairly well given he has won a Stayers and finished second with this approach, he just seemed to be beaten too easily for me at Cheltenham, he was then fairly easily picked up at Punchestown by a retiring Bob Ollinger.
We can always forgive a horse a below par run but when they string a couple of them together you have to ask questions and as they're rising 10 regression is the obvious conclusion, I think it would have to be a weak renewal (which is very possible) for him to figure....
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The majority of Elliotts horses weren't seeing the race out at Cheltenham for whatever reason. He had matched his career best RPR in the Christmas Hurdle at Leopardstown so doesn't look like he has regressed. As to the Punchestown run after, he had a decent record in it but invariably it has been a weak race (He beat Asterion Forlonge in it twice). Was a stronger renewal this time plus maybe he didn't enjoy his first time in head gear? Can see him being an interesting bet to lay trade if he has his usual fast start to the season.
 
Istabraq said:
You say he was campaigned differently he has always skipped DRF and been given plenty of time between his prep and Cheltenham, this has worked fairly well given he has won a Stayers and finished second with this approach, he just seemed to be beaten too easily for me at Cheltenham, he was then fairly easily picked up at Punchestown by a retiring Bob Ollinger.
We can always forgive a horse a below par run but when they string a couple of them together you have to ask questions and as they're rising 10 regression is the obvious conclusion, I think it would have to be a weak renewal (which is very possible) for him to figure....
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Yeah, not the DRF Ista. He is usually left alone after one run but they ran him again at Christmas and as Runragged says, ran a corker. That's what I was referring to when I said he might have done a Brighterdaysahead. I don't think he will be campaigned that way again.
 
Yeah understood, I like @Runragged theory of backing him early at a price and laying off for profit/free bet pre Cheltenham...
 
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Mydaddypaddy has been clipped into 10s from 14s for the Champion Hurdle in the last 48 hours.

Decision made for MDP to stay over hurdles and KDM to go over fences?
 
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Faugheen_Machine said:
Mydaddypaddy has been clipped into 10s from 14s for the Champion Hurdle in the last 48 hours.

Decision made for MDP to stay over hurdles and KDM to go over fences?
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KDM chopped into 8's for the Arkle from the little bit of 12's that was hanging around as well.

In fairness, Dan has already said the target for Kabral this season is the Arkle so punters putting 2 and 2 together and guessing Paddy stays Hurdling?
 
Lobos said:
KDM chopped into 8's for the Arkle from the little bit of 12's that was hanging around as well.

In fairness, Dan has already said the target for Kabral this season is the Arkle so punters putting 2 and 2 together and guessing Paddy stays Hurdling?
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Yeh possibly the case.

I really like Mydaddypaddy and can see him progressing into the number 1 challenger to Lossie.
 
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Faugheen_Machine said:
Yeh possibly the case.

I really like Mydaddypaddy and can see him progressing into the number 1 challenger to Lossie.
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Yep, can see that being the case especially with everything else seemingly going chasing.
 
Lobos said:
Yep, can see that being the case especially with everything else seemingly going chasing.
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It looks really thin when you start going through potential up and comers.

Are Idaho sun, Narsico Has, Mydaddypaddy all staying over hurdles? What else is there?

I'm assuming King Rasko Grey, Kabral Du Mathan, Old Park Star all go over fences.

When you go through them, Lossiemouth at 5/2 starts to feel way too big, which sounds ridiculous to say!
 
She looks a certainty doesn't she if she gets there in the same form as this March. Could easily have been going for her 4th Champion Hurdle in a row but we won't go into that again!
 
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Lobos said:
KDM chopped into 8's for the Arkle from the little bit of 12's that was hanging around as well.

In fairness, Dan has already said the target for Kabral this season is the Arkle so punters putting 2 and 2 together and guessing Paddy stays Hurdling?
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Does Kabral have the speed for an Arkle ?
Far be it from me to question Skelton's judgement but 150 yards from the lollipop he was winning a Stayers Hurdle as a 6yo, a year older and physically stronger I'd say that race is more likely to suit than a speedy Arkle.
I think it was My Way de Solzen who did the double some years ago so it can be done, but you have to be some horse to have the stamina to win over 3 and the speed to win over 2, especially at HQ.
As for MyPaddyDaddy, I get the hype but there is a danger that a few Skelton horses will be underpriced this season just because they're with Skelton, I thought he was beat fair and square at Aintree by a horse with less hurdling experience, for me if there's any value in the Champion Hurdle market it's the 33s for Idaho Sun...
 
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Istabraq said:
Does Kabral have the speed for an Arkle ?
Far be it from me to question Skelton's judgement but 150 yards from the lollipop he was winning a Stayers Hurdle as a 6yo, a year older and physically stronger I'd say that race is more likely to suit than a speedy Arkle.
I think it was My Way de Solzen who did the double some years ago so it can be done, but you have to be some horse to have the stamina to win over 3 and the speed to win over 2, especially at HQ.
As for MyPaddyDaddy, I get the hype but there is a danger that a few Skelton horses will be underpriced this season just because they're with Skelton, I thought he was beat fair and square at Aintree by a horse with less hurdling experience, for me if there's any value in the Champion Hurdle market it's the 33s for Idaho Sun...
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Idaho Sun is one I've backed each way. The excuse for Mydaddypaddy that day was that they removed a few hurdles due to low sun - looked beat fair and square on the day to me.

They'll clash at some point this season before Cheltenham I'd imagine and one of them will be single figures for the CH as best of the British, imo.
 
Istabraq said:
Does Kabral have the speed for an Arkle ?
Far be it from me to question Skelton's judgement but 150 yards from the lollipop he was winning a Stayers Hurdle as a 6yo, a year older and physically stronger I'd say that race is more likely to suit than a speedy Arkle.
I think it was My Way de Solzen who did the double some years ago so it can be done, but you have to be some horse to have the stamina to win over 3 and the speed to win over 2, especially at HQ.
As for MyPaddyDaddy, I get the hype but there is a danger that a few Skelton horses will be underpriced this season just because they're with Skelton, I thought he was beat fair and square at Aintree by a horse with less hurdling experience, for me if there's any value in the Champion Hurdle market it's the 33s for Idaho Sun...
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His collapse was just so drastic after the last that I cant ever see him winning a stayers. He went from looking like an easy winner to being beaten 6l and not even placing. I think 6 years old is plenty old enough to get the trip if your capable imo, especially for a french bred with plenty of experience. Have to remember the ground was very quick by festival standards on the Thursday too, which would have also been in his favour. Any dig and it would be that bit more of a test again.

I also wouldnt particularly be of the opinion that running respectably over three miles means that you might not have the speed for two miles. You've given one example yourself of one who did the double, but outside of that i could point to the likes of nichols canyon and solwhit, two very good two milers who were able to win a stayers, and annie power, a champion hurdle winner who despite being beaten in the stayers, still looked to see out the trip better than kabral.

The way he was travelling in his races over two and a half last season, I think if he was in any other smaller yard who didnt already have a champion hurdle horse, they would have been thinking of trying him out down in trip if anything.
 
Istabraq said:
Does Kabral have the speed for an Arkle ?
Far be it from me to question Skelton's judgement but 150 yards from the lollipop he was winning a Stayers Hurdle as a 6yo, a year older and physically stronger I'd say that race is more likely to suit than a speedy Arkle.
I think it was My Way de Solzen who did the double some years ago so it can be done, but you have to be some horse to have the stamina to win over 3 and the speed to win over 2, especially at HQ.
As for MyPaddyDaddy, I get the hype but there is a danger that a few Skelton horses will be underpriced this season just because they're with Skelton, I thought he was beat fair and square at Aintree by a horse with less hurdling experience, for me if there's any value in the Champion Hurdle market it's the 33s for Idaho Sun...
Click to expand...
Does anyone know what the problem that curtailed idaho sun's season was ?
 
Istabraq said:
Does Kabral have the speed for an Arkle ?
Far be it from me to question Skelton's judgement but 150 yards from the lollipop he was winning a Stayers Hurdle as a 6yo, a year older and physically stronger I'd say that race is more likely to suit than a speedy Arkle.
I think it was My Way de Solzen who did the double some years ago so it can be done, but you have to be some horse to have the stamina to win over 3 and the speed to win over 2, especially at HQ.
As for MyPaddyDaddy, I get the hype but there is a danger that a few Skelton horses will be underpriced this season just because they're with Skelton, I thought he was beat fair and square at Aintree by a horse with less hurdling experience, for me if there's any value in the Champion Hurdle market it's the 33s for
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To support your point Ista re KDM….

KDM performed at 5 years old, over the 2m trip, at around a level of no better than a 140 rating with the step up in trip under Skelton delivering around a stone of improvement, so will he be good enough over 2m, even if over fences?…….I’m not so sure……there are many potential Arkle horses this year with over 150 hurdle ratings and are no older than KDM

Looking at the Stayers last year then he was beat 6l by three 160 rated horses (one the previous years Stayers winner), with quality horses over a trip inc Honesty Policy and Teahupoo behind him…… not such a bad run maybe in hindsight especially for his first run over 3m?
 
Good discussion to have Gents and all very good and valid points.

Idaho Sun was injured before Cheltenham, not serious but I guess they weren't prepared to rush him back for the other Spring festivals but Harry Fry has said he will stay over timber so that's one doubt removed.

@Faugheen_Machine yeah I agree, the dolled off hurdles had no impact on the outcome for me, MDP came there to win his race and Idaho Sun was just the better horse.
What was key for me is that 2f out when Idaho Sun got racing there was no more than 3l back to third, at the line the winner won by 3l+ with another 8l back to third, this tells me MPD ran his race OK, Idaho Sun was/is just the better horse

Re Kabral du Mathan, it's worth remembering that Stayers run was his first and only attempt at 3m, I remember the debate at the time as to whether he would run or wait for Aintree and if I remember it correctly Skelton pulled rank and insisted the horse ran in the Stayers, whether that was because he wanted prize money for his trainers championship bid or whether he thought the horse could genuinely win the Stayers I have no idea, but for 2 mile 7 and a half furlongs he looked to have got it bang on.
For me it would be too soon to ignore a 3m career, yes he's French bred and been at the game for longer than most of the competition but I'd say he can get better at the distance...
 
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