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2017 Champion Hurdle

A very good stat that has saved me an awful lot of money over the last few years is A.King 1/82 over hurdles, no thanks.
 
I thought they were of the opinion that Limini was better than VVM. I can't see any piece of form that makes VVM single figures, and on her last run you'd give her no chance. She's guaranteed to be over bet if lining up here.
 
doctorwu said:
A very good stat that has saved me an awful lot of money over the last few years is A.King 1/82 over hurdles, no thanks.
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Fair stat, BUT, has he had the horses? When he has ones good enough he had winners, Penzance & Katchit both won the Triumph before the latter then went on to the Champion Hurdle. Yanworth is a rare (these days) star for him, so wouldn't judge his ability to train a hurdle winner just on what he has had more recently.
 
wouldn't disagree that she'll be over bet FM. She's a lot better than her last run, and with an allowance could sneak into the frame in what is a very poor CH.
 
COD,
He had a very strong juvenile string last year, which all failed. Including Yanworth.
 
COD,
King comes to the fez with another bunch of strong novice hurdlers. Lets see if he has any winners.
 
Saying Yanworth failed seems harsh to me. Yorkhill is a potential superstar and was the only horse to beat him all season. I also think he had a bit of an issue at the back end of last season.

A surprising stat to me nonetheless!
 
Faugheen_Machine said:
Ch'Tibello would be my bet at those prices. He was only a length behind Yanworth LTO having led shortly after the last. If the breathing op can bring out a little improvement and Harry Skelton can hold onto him slightly longer, he has a chance in what is an open year. VVM would be a certain lay for me at those prices.
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Yanworth came from a layout,will improve and it will be off level weights this time . He was a fair bit further behind him previously. But yes i see where your coming from with the price being what i put it up as!

I think VVM will def be shorter was/if declared for the race..and to be honest part of me can see why! Its wide open this year and yes her best form is over further, but she is pretty decent.
 
I agree with CCM, Yorkhill, despite his quirks is an extremely talented individual, who would probably beat them all in the CH if he lined up. Yanworth wasn't a million miles away, so to reiterate what CCM has said, saying he failed seems harsh.

I never got the hype of his juveniles/novices last year until Yanworth put in that impressive performance prior to the festival but that was ONE horse, so to say they were strong would depend on how you viewed them, I certainly wasn't impressed.The one horse I think that has been overly hyped since last season for some reason is Sceau Royal, I just don't get it and I think the same will happen with Master Blueyes this year in the Triumph, he is under priced and probably won't be good enough to hit the frame IMO.
 
kinloch brae said:
Vroum Vroum Mag arguably the most overrated horse in training. Has been extremely well placed. Beaten by Apple's Jade who is a pale shadow of last year and fell over the line against a second division mare at Doncaster. Not up to it even if this was the worst Champion Hurdle ever.
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A bit of a strong statement- and i think a lot of people are falling for "recency bias" when it comes to VVM.

Firstly, she fell over the line at Doncaster and was found not to be 100%, how often has she done that previously against horses rated like that? Never, so her form proves she was under the weather, and she still battled to win.

Secondly, she was beaten by AJ who had run like 3 times in a month or something ridiculous, was giving her 4pounds and complete race fitness. She arguably was given too much to do. Faugheen lost his debut something similar and i take it you were against him after that?

AJ a pale shadow of last year? I think you'll find its a heck of a lot more difficult coming from juveniles to open races and that is the issue with her. She is still a very good mare.
 
Faugheen_Machine said:
I thought they were of the opinion that Limini was better than VVM. I can't see any piece of form that makes VVM single figures, and on her last run you'd give her no chance. She's guaranteed to be over bet if lining up here.
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From my recent replies i sound like a VVM fanboy- i'd like to point out i am not but i do think 9s wont be there on the day and that interests me as a back to lay.

Her last run wouldn't be what i would fully judge her by, she was under weather and if any man can get them right for the day its WPM, see Vautour last year and Rubys comments on him saying he wouldnt have been racing if it was him!

Its difficult to suggest she will get the run of the race like Punchestown last year, but she beat a fair horse then in Identity Thief who supposedly didn't take to the Cheltenham atmosphere last year hence his terrible run. He went off 8/1 in what was another poor champion hurdle.

The form isn't great, but she will have 7 pounds, Ruby on board and at 9s i can't be arguing too much considering the amount of question marks there are over the rest as well? None of the horses are "stars" and they all have glaring question marks.
 
Moon Racer lining up for this
 
Excellent. A brave but correct decision.
 
Well he doesn't fit many of the trends... Do we think he's got a solid chance in this? With an interrupted prep?
 
Seemorebusiness said:
Well he doesn't fit many of the trends... Do we think he's got a solid chance in this? With an interrupted prep?
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Do we call this an interrupted prep, its no different from when he won the bumper, in fact a month worse off.

He has a great ew shout with a chance if improved again.
 
Wouldn't fit many trends because there aren't many novices who try. Valirimix (spelt wrong?) was the last one i can remember.

I don't think he'll win but still believe it is the correct thing to do with a fragile 8 year old novice who is clearly very talented.
 
Faugheen_Machine said:
Wouldn't fit many trends because there aren't many novices who try. Valirimix (spelt wrong?) was the last one i can remember.

I don't think he'll win but still believe it is the correct thing to do with a fragile 8 year old novice who is clearly very talented.
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Yes the correct decision in my opinion too. See Coneygree, you don't know whether you'll be there next year and you don't know what else might be there.
 
jack1092 said:
From my recent replies i sound like a VVM fanboy- i'd like to point out i am not but i do think 9s wont be there on the day and that interests me as a back to lay.

Her last run wouldn't be what i would fully judge her by, she was under weather and if any man can get them right for the day its WPM, see Vautour last year and Rubys comments on him saying he wouldnt have been racing if it was him!

Its difficult to suggest she will get the run of the race like Punchestown last year, but she beat a fair horse then in Identity Thief who supposedly didn't take to the Cheltenham atmosphere last year hence his terrible run. He went off 8/1 in what was another poor champion hurdle.

The form isn't great, but she will have 7 pounds, Ruby on board and at 9s i can't be arguing too much considering the amount of question marks there are over the rest as well? None of the horses are "stars" and they all have glaring question marks.
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Spot on Jack - a proper back to lay.

Moonracer going to be shorter on the day too.
 
What are people's thoughts on Yanworth. I think he is a very good horse but not necessarily for this race and he now looks awfully short at 3/1. A horse he reminded me of was Inglis Drever. Beaten in the Neptune when hot favourite, then campaigned over 2m with success. I think his last run before beating Baracouda in the Stayers was a similarly workmanlike success at Wincanton. There is no doubt in my mind that he would win the Stayers but the Champion?
 
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